Public Opinion Survey Residents of Kyrgyzstan

Transcription

1 Public Opinion Survey Residents of Kyrgyzstan November 19 December 2, 2017 Funded by the European Union

2 Detailed Methodology The survey was conducted by Dr. Rasa Alisauskiene of the public and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the Center for Insights in Survey Research. The field work was carried out by SIAR Research and Consulting. Data was collected throughout Kyrgyzstan from November 19 to December 2, 2017 through face-to-face interviews at respondents homes. The sample consisted of 1,500 permanent residents of Kyrgyzstan aged 18 and older and eligible to vote and is representative of the general population by age, gender, education, region and settlement size. Demographic profile differences from published census data are linked to migration patterns. A multistage probability sampling method was used, employing the random route and Kish Method for respondents selection procedures. Stage one: All districts of Kyrgyzstan were grouped into seven regions plus Bishkek. Each region of Kyrgyzstan was surveyed. Stage two: Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in that region. Stage three: Primary sampling units were described. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.5 percent for the full sample. The response rate was 67 percent. Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. Interviews were conducted in the Kyrgyz, Russian and Uzbek languages. This survey has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the Center for Insights in Survey Research at the International Republican Institute and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union. 2

3 Mood of the Country

4 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Kyrgyzstan are going in the right direction or wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/no answer 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % % % 3 29% 2 30% 3 9% % 1 10% % 49% % 39% 39% 39% 2 29% % 1 1 0% Apr-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 May-07 Nov-07 Oct-08 May-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Nov-17 4

5 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Kyrgyzstan changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/no answer Nov Mar-17 39% 3 1 Mar % Jul % 2 Feb-15 10% % Oct Feb Feb-13 20% 4 2 Aug-12 29% 3 2 Feb Sep % 1 1 May % 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 5

6 Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your household changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/no answer Nov-17 Mar-17 Mar-16 Jul-15 Feb-15 Oct-14 Feb-14 Feb-13 Aug-12 Feb-12 Sep-11 May-11 Nov-10 May-10 May-09 Oct-08 Nov-07 May-07 Oct-06 Mar-06 Apr % % 1 19% % % % % 19% 20% % % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 6

7 In your opinion, how will the economic situation in Kyrgyzstan change in the next year? Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/no answer Nov % 2 1 Mar Mar-16 10% 29% 3 1 Jul Feb % 2 9% 2 Oct-14 9% % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 7

8 What are the most important problems that Kyrgyzstan is facing at the moment? (Three spontaneous answers; shown are answers mentioned by or more of respondents) Unemployment Corruption Problems in border areas Economic development Poor roads Low pensions Migration issues Social problems Low salaries Lack of industrial production High prices State-level financial problems Inflation Political instability Problems with drinking water Customs issues Education Low standard of living Lack of funding for schools and kindergartens 1 10% 2 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 8

9 What are the most important problems your town/village is facing? (Three spontaneous answers; shown are answers mentioned by or more of respondents) Poor roads Unemployment Lack of drinking water 20% 19% 2 High prices Lack of kindergartens 1 1 Lack of schools or poor state of school facilities Problems with street lighting Trash collection Lack of irrigation water Problems with sewage Poor infrastructure Electricity supply Public transportation Environmental issues Corruption Gas supply 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 9

10 What are the most important problems facing you and your household? (Three spontaneous answers; shown are answers mentioned by or more of respondents) Financial problems/low standard of living 2 Unemployment 1 No problems Water supply Low pensions Housing issues Low salaries Health problems Low benefits Social problems Inflation Problems with land management Lack of kindergartens 0% 10% 20% 30% 10

11 What are the most important problems facing your household? (Three spontaneous answers) Unemployment Low standard of living Housing problems High prices 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% % % 4 40% 39% % % 40% 39% % % % 20% % 9% 10% Apr-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 May-07 Nov-07 Oct-08 May-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Nov-17 11

12 How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Kyrgyzstan? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know/no answer Nov Mar % Mar-16 10% Jul-15 40% 2 1 9% Feb % 2 9% 1 Oct % % Feb Feb Aug % 1 1 Feb % 10% Sep % May-11 Nov % 29% 40% 19% 2 10% May-10 9% May-09 Oct % 1 Nov-07 9% 4 2 May-07 40% 3 1 Oct-06 Mar-06 Apr-05 10% % % 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 12

13 Are people in Kyrgyzstan afraid to openly express their political views? Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid Don't know/no answer Nov Mar-17 10% 20% 3 3 Ma % 3 Feb % 29% 3 Oct-14 10% 20% 29% 3 Feb % Feb Aug Feb % 3 Sep May % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 13

14 In your opinion, are there groups who do not feel safe to openly express their political views? Yes No Don't know/no answer Nov Mar % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 14

15 Which of these statements is closest to your own point of view? Our society needs serious reforms (structural and systemic change) Our society needs gradual reforms which preserve the existing system Our society has to be protected from forces that want to change the current order Don't know/no answer Nov % 1 Mar % Mar % 1 10% Jul Feb Oct % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 15

16 Institutions

17 What is your opinion of the work of the following Kyrgyz and international institutions? Positive Negative Don t know/no answer Central Bank 7 1 9% Mass media of Kyrgyzstan 7 2 Army 7 2 Education system 7 2 Healthcare system 6 3 Office of the President 6 29% 10% European Union Central Election Commission Parliament 5 3 United Nations % Police 5 4 Labor unions Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe 49% 1 3 Political parties 4 4 9% Courts 4 50% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 17

18 The Government

19 Do you believe that citizens should play a larger or smaller role in the governmental decision-making process? 1 9% 5 Larger role Same role as currently Smaller role No role Don't know/no answer 19% 19

20 Corruption

21 Is corruption a big problem in Kyrgyzstan today? It is a very big problem It is a big problem It is not a big problem It is not a problem at all Don't know/no answer Nov Mar Mar-16 70% 2 Jul Feb Oct Feb Feb-13 69% 2 Aug Feb Sep % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 21

22 Do you think the Kyrgyz Government is making a sufficient effort to fight corruption? Yes No Don t know/no answer Nov-17 20% 7 Mar Mar Jul Feb-15 19% 7 Oct Feb % Feb Aug % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 22

23 What is your opinion of the following organizations? Very corrupt Somewhat corrupt Not very corrupt Not corrupt at all Don't know/no answer State automobile inspection 5 3 Courts 4 40% Police 4 40% 10% Medical institutions 4 40% 1 Universities 40% 4 1 Prosecutor General s office 40% 4 10% Customs agencies 3 4 9% 1 Tax service Political parties 3 39% 1 1 Parliament 3 39% 1 1 Financial police Office of the President % 1 Kyrgyz companies 19% 4 20% 1 Banks % 1 Army Foreign companies % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 23

24 Politics

25 How much interest do you have in politics? 3 30% Very much interested Somewhat interested Somewhat disinterested Not interested at all 2 25

26 Are you a member of a political party? Yes No Don't know/no answer Nov-17 9 Mar-17 9 Mar-16 9% 8 Jul Feb-15 9 Oct-14 9% 9 Feb % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 26

27 How often do you participate in political party activities? (Members of political parties) Very often Sometimes Rarely Never Don t know/no answer Nov-17 (N=69) Mar-17 (N=91) Mar-16 (N=141) % 1 Jul-15 (N=226) 1 39% 3 Feb-15 (N=90) Oct-14 (N=132) % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 27

28 Why are you not a member of a political party? (Respondents who are not members of political parties: N=1,417) No interest or desire to participate 6 No time Too old/too young Nobody invited me There are no worthy parties No confidence in parties No need I did not think about this No money/no connections Other Don't know/no answer 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 28

29 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? "It is healthy for Kyrgyzstan s democracy to have multiple parties in power. Fully agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Fully disagree Don't know/no answer Nov Mar % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 29

30 Elections

31 Do election results have an impact on your financial situation?* Yes No Don't know/no answer Nov-17 90% Mar Mar Jul Feb % Oct % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% * In surveys conducted prior to November 2017 the question was phrased: In your opinion, does your financial situation depend on the results of elections in general? 31

32 Did you vote in the October 2017 presidential election? 2 Yes No Don't know/no answer 7 32

33 Did you vote in the October 2017 presidential election? (Disaggregated by age) Yes No Don't know/no answer years old years old years and older 8 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 33

34 If you did not vote, why not? (Respondents who did not vote in the October 2017 presidential election: N=333) Issues with biometric identification 2 No time 20% Mobility and/or transportation issues My vote does not matter 1 1 No interest 9% No worthy candidates Registration in other district I was away I did not have a passport I was ill I was not on the list I do not trust the voting system Other Don t know/no answer 0% 10% 1 20% 2 30% 34

35 Do you believe the October 2017 presidential election was a free and fair election? Yes No Don't know/no answer Nov-17 49% 3 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 35

36 Do you believe that the 2017 presidential election was more or less fair and transparent than the 2015 parliamentary elections were? More fair and transparent Less fair and transparent They were the same Don t know/no answer Nov-17 39% % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 36

37 Are you familiar with the Central Election Commission s complaints mechanism? Yes No Don't know/no answer Nov % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 37

38 During the presidential election, did you use the complaints mechanism? (Respondents familiar with the complaint mechanism: N=241) Yes No Nov % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 38

39 Did you feel that your complaint was properly recorded, addressed and responded to by the election commission? (Respondents who used the complaint mechanism: N=5, a sample size of 5 holds no statistical validity.) Yes No Nov-17 20% 80% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 39

40 Did you experience technical difficulties at any point during the complaints process? (Respondents who used the complaint mechanism: N=5, a sample size of 5 holds no statistical validity.) Yes No Nov % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 40

41 How satisfied were you with the election commission s handling of your complaint? Please answer the question using the scale from 1 to 10, where 10 means very satisfied, and 1 means not at all satisfied (Respondents who used the complaint mechanism: N=5, a sample size of 5 holds no statistical validity.) 40% 40% Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied (5 points) Satisfied (8 points) Very satisfied (10 points) 20% 41

42 During the presidential election, did anyone offer you money, gifts or some other incentive in exchange for your vote?* Yes No Don't know/no answer Nov Mar % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% *In March 2017 the question was phrased: Has anyone offered you money, gifts or some other incentive in exchange for your vote in the last election? That question referred to the preceding municipal elections and constitutional referendum. 42

43 During the presidential election, did you know or witness anyone who was offered money, gifts or an incentive in exchange for their vote? Yes, myself Yes, a family member Yes, friend or member of the community No Don t know/no answer Nov Mar % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% * In March 2017 the question was phrased: During the last local election, did you know or witness anyone who was offered money, gifts or an incentive in exchange for their vote? That question referred to the preceding municipal election. 43

44 International Relations

45 How would you assess the current relations between Kyrgyzstan and the following countries? Good Bad Neither good nor bad Don't know/no answer Russia 9 Uzbekistan 7 10% China 70% 1 1 Turkey % Tajikistan % European Union 6 9% 1 1 Japan Kazakhstan 4 4 United States % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 45

46 How would you assess the current relations between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan? 90% Good Bad Neither good nor bad Don't know/no answer 80% 7 70% 60% 50% % 30% 20% 10% 0% 30% 1 Sep Feb-12 29% 1 Aug % Feb Feb-14 29% 9% Oct % Feb-15 29% 1 Jul-15 29% 1 Mar % 10% Mar-17 Nov-17 46

47 Which of these countries do you consider to be the most important economic partners and greatest economic threats to Kyrgyzstan? (Multiple answers allowed) 100% 90% 9 Partner Threat 80% 70% 60% 5 50% % 30% 20% 10% 0% Russia Kazakhstan Uzbekistan China Turkey European Union 29% Tajikistan Japan United States 1 None Don't know/no answer 47

48 Which of these countries do you consider to be the most important economic partners and greatest economic threats to Kyrgyzstan? 60% Uzbekistan is one of the most important economic partners Uzbekistan is one of the greatest economic threats 50% 40% 4 40% % 20% 10% % Feb-13 Feb-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Nov-17 48

49 Do you believe that Kyrgyzstan joining the Eurasian Economic Union with Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia has been positive or negative for Kyrgyzstan? Very positive Somewhat positive Somewhat negative Very negative Don t know/no answer Nov-17 29% 49% 1 Mar % 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 49

50 Human Rights

51 In which sectors of society do you feel it is most important for women to play an expanded role? (Three answers allowed) 7 Healthcare Education Households/At home 50% 49% 39% 1 Business 1 20% 2 1 Politics Nov-17 Farming Mar-17 Mar-16 Jul-15 Law enforcement 1 Don't know/no answer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 51

52 In your opinion, should there be more women in Kyrgyz politics? 2 4 Yes, there should be more women in Kyrgyz politics There should be the same amount of women as there currently is No, there should be fewer women in Kyrgyz politics Don t know/no answer 2 52

53 If yes, why do you believe there should be more women in politics? (Respondents who think there should be more women in politics: N=407) Women are generally more level-headed and reasonable than men 3 Women can address issues pertaining to women s rights more effectively 3 More women in politics will help empower young women to be more politically and socially active 3 Equal representation is important 3 Composition of the government should resemble composition of the general population 1 Don't know/no answer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 53

54 In your opinion, should there be more youth in Kyrgyz politics? 1 Yes, there should be more youth in Kyrgyz politics There should be the same amount of youth as there currently is No, there should be fewer youth in Kyrgyz politics Don't know/no answer 7 54

55 If yes, why do you believe there should be more youth in Kyrgyz politics? (Respondents who think there should be more youth in Kyrgyz politics: N=1,117) Youth are the future of the country 69% Youth bring a new set of fresh ideas, values and opportunities, which can lead to valuable reforms 40% More youth in politics will empower the next generation to be more politically and socially active 2 There should be a regular influx of new faces in politics 20% Equal representation is important 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 55

56 Sources of Information

57 For each of the items, please say if they have great influence, some influence, not much influence or no influence at all on your views of parties or candidates. Great/Some influence Not much/no influence Don't know/no answer Meetings with politicians 6 3 Meeting with/opinions of respected people 5 39% TV ads 4 5 Visits of party or candidate representatives to your house 4 5 Phone calls to your house from the political party or candidate 4 5 Personal letters to you from the candidate 39% 5 Articles in newspapers about the candidates 3 6 Social media 3 5 Paid ads in newspapers for the candidate or party 2 6 Billboards 2 6 Slogans on vehicles 2 6 Radio ads 2 69% Brochures/Pamphlets 2 70% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 57

58 Which of these media outlets do you use for political information? (Multiple answers allowed) TV news and programs Internet Relatives/Friends Articles in newspapers Radio news and programs Billboards/Stands in the streets Articles in magazines Colleagues Meetings with politicians 29% 2 20% % 2 30% % Nov-17 Mar-17 Mar-16 Jul Leaflets/Other free information by mail Don't know/no answer 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 58

59 How often do you use the Internet? Every day 5-6 days a week 3-4 days a week 1-2 days a week Less often Never Don't know/no answer Nov Mar-17 19% 60% Mar % 60% Jul % Feb Oct Feb Feb Aug-12 7 Feb-12 Sep-11 May-11 80% 8 8 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 59

60 Where do you access the Internet most often? (Internet users: N=634) Via mobile phone 6 At home 3 At work Don't know/no answer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 60

61 Demographics

62 Demographics GENDER Male Female 40% 60% years 2 AGE years 50 years and older 39% 39% Incomplete secondary 9% EDUCATION Secondary Special secondary 1 50% Higher/Incomplete higher 2 Kyrgyz 79% ETHNICITY Uzbek Russian 10% Other RELIGION Muslim Orthodox Other 9 FINANCIAL SITUATION OF FAMILY Bad Average Good 2 7 FAMILY MEMBERS ABROAD Yes No 3 6 NUMBER OF FAMILY MEMBERS ABROAD: N=476 One Two Three or more 1 29% 5 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 62

63 Demographics Manager/Director/Deputy director Specialist, technician 1 Office worker, service, trade 9% OCCUPATION Worker Farmer Student Retired (not working) 2 Housewife/Maternity leave 2 Unemployed/Looking for job 1 SETTLEMENT TYPE Bishkek Town Rural area 1 19% 6 Bishkek (North) 1 Chui (North) 1 Issyk-Kul (North) REGION Naryn (North) Talas (North) Jalal-Abad (South) 1 Batken (South) Osh (South) 2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 63

64 Center for Insights in Survey Research Funded by the European Union