Survey of Southern Kazakhstan Population

Transcription

1 Survey of Southern Kazakhstan Population April -, 009 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization with funding from the National Endowment for Democracy

2 METHODOLOGY The survey of southern Kazakhstan (Kyzylorda, Zhambyl and South Kazakhstan oblasts and Almaty city) was carried out from April -, 009. The eligibility criteria was based on age (8 years and older). Eight-hundred and twenty-seven Kazakh participants were interviewed face-to-face in their homes. The sample design was a multi-stage probability sample. Stage one: the sample was stratified into four regions- three oblasts and Almaty city. Stage two: the sample was further stratified into rural, urban and metropolitan sampling units. Stage three: Primary Sampling Units (PSU) were described. The last birthday rule was used for the selection of the respondent. The households were selected using random route method. The sample was distributed at the regional level, in rural and urban areas, in all regions of southern Kazakhstan. The response rate was 65 percent. The margin of error for the survey results does not exceed plus or minus. percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. Fifty-nine interviewers worked on the study, on average completing 0- interviews in one PSU. The interviews were done in Russian, Kazakh and Uzbek languages.

3 SOCIAL INDICATORS INDEX

4 Generally speaking, is Kazakhstan going in the right direction or wrong direction? Right direction 8% Don't know/no answer 0% Wrong direction 8%

5 Generally speaking, is Kazakhstan going in the right direction or wrong direction? Almaty city 67 9 Zhambyl oblast 88 8 Kyzylorda oblast 8 7 South Kazakhstan oblast Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/no answer 5

6 In the past year, how has your personal financial situation changed? More or less the same % Don't know/no answer % Improved 0% Worsened 6% 6

7 In the past year how has your personal financial situation changed? Almaty city Zhambyl oblast 6 Kyzylorda oblast 9 8 South Kazakhstan Improved Worsened More or less the same Don't know/no answer 7

8 In the next year, do you expect the economic situation in Kazakhstan to get better, worse or stay the same? Don't know/no answer 7% Better % More or less the same 0% Worse 9% 8

9 In the next year, do you expect the economic situation in Kazakhstan to get better, worse or stay the same? Almaty city Zhambyl oblast Kyzylorda oblast South Kazakhstan oblast Better Worse More or less the same Don't know/no answer 9

10 ISSUES INDEX 0

11 Do you feel effects of the world financial crisis in your city/village? Don't know/no answer % Yes 68% No 8%

12 Do you feel effects of the world financial crisis in your city/village? Almaty city Zhambyl oblast 6 Kyzylorda oblast 70 8 South Kazakhstan oblast Yes No Don't know/no answer

13 What one effect of the world financial crisis do you feel most? Respondents who feel effects of the world financial crisis, N=56 Price increases for basic products Decrease in available jobs 0 General economic crisis 7 General bank crisis 6 Wages are not paid Slowed business activities Housing problems Price increases for health services/medicine Difficulty selling products Don't know/no answer

14 How well is President Nazarbaev and the government handling the problems caused by the global financial crisis? % 6% % 7% 6% Very good Rather good Rather bad Very bad Don't know/no answer

15 How well is President Nazarbaev and the government handling the problems caused by the global financial crisis? Almaty city Zhambyl oblast Kyzylorda oblast 57 6 South Kazakhstan oblast Very good Rather good Rather bad Very bad Don't know/no answer 5

16 How concerned are you about high prices? % Concerned % Not concerned Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned Don't know/no answer 6

17 In your view, which of the following is mostly to blame for high prices? Respondents who are very or somewhat concerned about high prices, N=76 The government lacks a coherent economic plan 0 Devaluation of the tenge Corruption Merchants are greedy and charging more than necessary People can afford to pay more, so merchants are charging more World financial crisis 5 7 Prices are always rising, no one is to blame 0. No tax collection 0. Economic dependence on other countries 0. Don't know/no answer

18 Which one of the following issues is of the greatest concern to you? Unemployment/Possibility of losing job Inflation/Price increases Low standard of living Low income Increase in level of crime Corruption Low quality/high prices of health services Quality/Accessibility of education Problems with the water supply Housing problems Need for further democratic reforms Not a sufficient level of support to small and medium sized businesses Other Don't know/no answer

19 Which one of the following issues is of the greatest concern to you? Residents of Almaty city, N=98 Inflation/Price increases Unemployment/Possibility of losing job Low income Low standard of living Increase in level of crime Low quality/high prices of health services Quality/Accessibility of education Housing problems Problems with the water supply Corruption Not a sufficient level of support to small and medium sized businesses Don't know/no answer

20 Which one of the following issues is of the greatest concern to you? Residents of Zhambyl oblast, N=6 Inflation/Price increases Unemployment/Possibility of losing job 0 Low standard of living 5 Low income 6 Corruption Increase in level of crime 5 Quality/Accessibility of education Low quality/high prices of health services Housing problems Not a sufficient level of support to small and medium sized businesses Problems with the water supply Don't know/no answer

21 Which one of the following issues is of the greatest concern to you? Residents of Kyzylorda oblast, N=0 Inflation/Price increases Unemployment/Possibility of losing job Low standard of living Low income Corruption Quality/Accessibility of education Increase in level of crime Housing problems Not a sufficient level of support to small and medium sized businesses Low quality/high prices of health services Need for further democratic reforms Problems with the water supply Other Don't know/no answer

22 Which one of the following issues is of the greatest concern to you? Residents of South Kazakhstan oblast, N=65 Unemployment/Possibility of losing job Inflation/Price increases Low standard of living Corruption Low income Need for further democratic reforms Problems with the water supply Increase in level of crime Low quality/high prices of health services Quality/Accessibility of education Housing problems Not a sufficient level of support to small and medium sized businesses Don't know/no answer

23 How corrupt are the following institutions? Street police Customs service Office of the Prosecutor General 6 8 Universities The courts Banks Parliament Kazakhstani companies Political parties 6 6 Army 5 0 Office of the President Foreign companies Great deal of corruption Fair amount Not much No corruption Don't know/no answer

24 Have you been in a situation over the last months when you had to pay a bribe in order to get a service or a decision that you needed? Don't know/no answer 0% Yes, had to pay 5% No, have not paid 65%

25 Compared to a few years ago, do you think corruption in Kazakhstan has gotten a lot better, gotten a little better, stayed the same, gotten a little worse or gotten a lot worse? % Better % Worse 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 00% A lot better A little better Stayed the same A little worse A lot worse Don't know/no answer 5

26 How safe do you feel in the city/village where you live? % % % 7% 5% Completely safe Rather safe Rather not safe Not at all safe Don't know/no answer 6

27 How safe do you feel in the city/village where you live? Almaty city Zhambyl oblast 5 8 Kyzylorda oblast South Kazakhstan oblast Completely safe Rather safe Rather not safe Not at all safe Don't know/no answer 7

28 In the last six months, would you say that the criminal situation in your city or village became worse, remained the same or improved? 5% 5% % % 0% 6% Much better Somewhat better Remained the same Somewhat worse Much worse Don't know/no answer 8

29 In the last six months, would you say that the criminal situation in your city or village became worse, remained the same or improved? Almaty city 8 5 Zhambyl oblast Kyzylorda oblast 8 South Kazakhstan oblast Much better Somewhat better Remained the same Much worse Somewhat worse Don't know/no answer 9

30 Are property rights in your city/village protected? % % % % 5% Very protected Somewhat protected Not very protected Not at all protected Don't know/no answer 0

31 Are property rights in your city/village protected? Almaty city Zhambyl oblast 9 5 Kyzylorda oblast South Kazakhstan oblast Very protected Somewhat protected Not very protected Not at all protected Don't know/no answer

32 Are people in Kazakhstan afraid to openly express their political views? Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid Don't know/no answer

33 INSTITUTIONAL RATINGS

34 Are you satisfied with the quality of work provided by the oblast Akim* in your region? 7% 9% % 8% % Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat unsatisfied Very unsatisfied Don't know/no answer *Each of the oblasts and the two municipal districts of Almaty and Astana are headed by an Akim (provincial governor) appointed by the president.

35 Are you satisfied with the quality of work provided by the oblast Akim in your region? Almaty city Zhambyl oblast Kyzylorda oblast South Kazakhstan % 0% 0% 60% 80% 00% Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat unsatisfied Very unsatisfied Don't know/no answer 5

36 Are you satisfied with the quality of work provided by the city/rayon Akim* in your city/village? 7% 6% % % 5% Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat unsatisfied Very unsatisfied Don't know/no answer *A city or rayon Akim is similar to a mayor and like an oblast Akim, they are also appointed by the president. 6

37 Are you satisfied with the quality of work provided by the city/rayon Akim in your city/village? Almaty city Zhambyl oblast Kyzylorda oblast 66 5 South Kazakhstan oblast % 0% 0% 60% 80% 00% Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat unsatisfied Very unsatisfied Don't know/no answer 7

38 What are the main issues on which local authorities need to focus on in your city/village? Up to three answers allowed. Unemployment Water supply Road problems Inflation/Price increases Health care Ecological problems Gas supply Corruption Increase in level of crime Housing problems Low social benefits City/Village cleanliness Kindergartens Low standard of living Education Agriculture Public transport problems Social assistance Other Don't know/no answer First mentioned All mentioned

39 What are the main issues on which local authorities need to focus on in your city/village? Residents of Almaty city, N=98. Up to three answers allowed. Unemployment Increase in level of crime Road problems Ecological problems Inflation/Price increases Healthcare City/Village cleanliness Corruption Public transport problems Social assistance Low social benefits Water supply Low living standards Education Kindergartens Gas supply Housing problems Agriculture Other Don't know/no answer First mentioned All mentioned

40 What are the main issues on which local authorities need to focus on in your city/village? Unemployment Inflation/Price increases Road problems Corruption Kindergartens Increase in level of crime Ecological problems Gas supply Low living standards Low social benefits Housing problems Healthcare City/Village cleanliness Water supply Education Agriculture Social assistance Other Don't know/no answer Residents of Zhambyl oblast, N=6. Up to three answers allowed First mentioned All mentioned

41 What are the main issues on which local authorities need to focus on in your city/village? Residents of Kyzylorda oblast, N=0. Up to three answers allowed. Water supply Unemployment Road problems Inflation/Price increases Agriculture Corruption Housing problems City/Village cleanliness Social assistance Gas supply Low living standards Healthcare Education Public transport problems Ecological problems Kindergartens Other Don't know/no answer First mentioned All mentioned 7

42 What are the main issues on which local authorities need to focus on in your city/village? Residents of South Kazakhstan oblast, N=65. Up to three answers allowed. Unemployment Water supply Road problems Inflation/Price increases Healthcare Gas supply Housing problems Education Ecological problems Corruption Low social benefits Kindergartens Low living standards Public transport problems Agriculture City/Village cleanliness Increase in level of crime Social assistance Low income of population Other Don't know/no answer First mentioned All mentioned

43 LEADERSHIP INDEX

44 What have been the main events in the country s life since its independence? Up to three answers allowed. National currency recognition Transferring the capital to Astana Economic growth Constitution Independence President and party elections City development Education improvement Recognition of state symbols Democracy Small business development The 000th anniversary of Taraz Stability in development Strengthening of Kazakh language Space program Recognition of country in world Increase of wages/pensions/social allowances Approval of state and national holidays The assembly of people of Kazakhstan Other Don't know/no answer First mentioned All mentioned 8 6

45 Of the prominent Kazakhs and characters in Kazakh history and folk culture, who is most suitable to be a national hero or leader in the current time? (Open-ended question, all mentioned) Abai Kunanbayev N.Nazarbayev Shokan Valikhanov Abylai khan Mukhtar Auezov Aldar Kosse 5 Dinmukhamedov Konayev Olzhas Suleimanov I.Altynsaryn Zhambyl Zhabayev Khodzha Akhmet Yassavi M.Shakhanov Other Don't know No response

46 ELECTIONS INDEX 6

47 If parliamentary elections were held next week, how likely is it that you would vote? % Likely to vote % Likely not to vote Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not vote at all Don't know/no answer 7

48 Why would you not vote in the parliamentary elections if they were held next week? If not very likely to or not vote at all, N=5 No belief in elections fairness and transparency No time 7 I don't see party's activities I will be out of the city I understand nothing in it No worthy opposition I don't want to Don't know/no answer 9 8

49 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: It is healthy for Kazakhstan to have an active political opposition? % 0% 0% 0% 7% Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/no answer 9

50 If the opposition political parties decided to form a Grand Opposition Alliance, would you support this grand alliance or not? Yes No Maybe Don't know/no answer IRI, Baltic Surveys / / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN SURVEY OF SOUTHERN NATIONAL KAZAKHSTAN PUBLIC OPINION POPULATION, SURVEY, August April

51 What should be the main priority of this Grand Opposition Alliance? Those who would/maybe support Grand Opposition Alliance, N=67 Unemployment Distinct strategic policy Democracy Pension increase Solving difficult issues Opening of new enterprises Social assistance Fulfilling the people's requirements Serving the people fairly Corruption Work with the population Deferring credit payments Anti-crisis decision Simplifying traffic rules Other Don't know No response

52 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 5

53 From what sources do you get political information? Kazakhstan's TV stations Kazakhstan's newspapers 5 Russian TV stations 7 Kazakhstan's radio stations Relatives, friends 8 7 Internet Russian radio stations Russian newspapers 8 Magazines 6 Other foreign TV stations 6 Other foreign radio stations Other foreign newspapers Other 0. Don't know/no response 5 85

54 How credible are the following information sources? Credibility measured on a five-point scale where one very unreliable and five very credible Kazakhstan's TV stations Russian TV stations Relatives, friends Kazakhstan's newspapers Russian radio stations Kazakhstan's radio stations Russian newspapers Internet 0 Other foreign TV stations 8 5 Magazines 5 Other foreign newspapers Other foreign radio stations Credible Neither Unreliable Don't know/no answer 5

55 Which TV stations do you watch regularly? Khabar 5 Kazakhstan ORT Evraziya 0 KTK El arna NTK st channel 0 0 NTV 8 Astana Russia 5 55

56 Which radio stations do you listen to regularly? Radio NS 9 Europe + Russian radio 5 5 Yumaks 9 Kazakhstan 6 HIT FM Retro Radio Shalkar Radio Auto radio Don't listen to radio 56

57 Which newspapers do you read regularly? Karavan Egemen Kazakhstan 9 Vremya 8 Kazakhstanskaya pravda Rabat 7 7 Yuzhnyi Kazakhstan AiF Ak zhol Zhas Alash Aigak Don't read newspapers 57

58 On average, how many times do you use the Internet per week? Don't know/no answer % Every day % Do not use 6% Some times per week 0% Once a week 6% Once a month 7% 58

59 On average, how many times do you use the Internet per week? Almaty city Zhambyl oblast Kyzylorda oblast South Kazakhstan oblast % 0% 0% 60% 80% 00% Every day Some times per week Once a week Once a month Do not use Don't know/no answer 59

60 Where do you most often regularly access the Internet? Users of Internet, N= At home 5 At work 5 At internet café 7 At relative's/friend's home Cell phone or mobile connection At school/university Don't know/no answer

61 What is the financial state of your household? We do not have enough money for the basic needs 9% Don't know/no answer % We are able to buy only basic products 8% We can afford almost whatever we want % We are able to buy some more expensive goods, but should save on other things % We are able to buy what is necessary, but we cannot afford more expensive goods 5% 6

62 SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS 6

63 Gender Male 5% Female 55% 50+ 5% Age groups 8-9 9% 0-9 6% 6

64 University/Higher 7% Secondary unfinished Primary % % Education Secondary 6% Higher unfinished 0% Vocational % Household size Five and more 5% One 7% Four 0% Three 5% Two % 6

65 0,00-60,000 tenge 7% Household income More than 60,000 tenge 0% DK/NA 9% 5,00-0,000 tenge % Up to 5,000 tenge % Seasonal, occasional 6% Working status No, don't work 9% Yes, part time % Yes, full time % 65

66 Sector of employed respondents, N=50 Nongovernmental % Private 60% State 6% Occupations of employed respondents, N=50 Specialist with technical education 0% Unqualified worker % Owner/Director/ Manager 7% Specialist with higher education 7% Entrepreneur % 66

67 Housevives, on maternity leave % Unemployed respondents, N= Unemployed, looking for a job % Retired 9% Unemployed, not looking for a job 7% Don't know/no answer % Students 7% Are you a member of any political party or nongovernmental organization? Member of NGO % None 90% Member of a party 8% 67

68 Korean % Turk % Tartar % Other % Uzbek 9% Ethnicity Russian 9% Kazakh 65% Language of interview Kazakh 57% Uzbek 5% Russian 8% 68

69 Russian Orthodox 9% Other % None % Religion Islam 78% Once a week % Few times a week % Attendance of religious service Once a month 6% Few times a year % Every day % Never 5% 69

70 Region South Kazakhstan oblast % Almaty city % Kyzylorda oblast % Zhambyl oblast 0% 70