Public Opinion Survey Residents of Moldova

Transcription

1 Public Opinion Survey Residents of Moldova September 20 October 20, 2014 International Republican Institute

2 Detailed Methodology The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Magenta Consulting. Data was collected throughout Moldova September 20 October 20, 2014 through face-to-face interviews at respondents home. The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Moldova 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement. All regions of Moldova were surveyed (excluding Transnistria). Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent s selection procedures: Stage one: districts of Moldova are grouped into 11 groups. Stage two: selection of the settlements cities and villages. Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of settlement in each region. Stage three: primary sampling units were described. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. Response rate was 62 percent. Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. The survey was funded by the National Endowment for Democracy. 2

3 International Republican Institute Increased Support for Pro-European Parties

4 Moldovan Parliamentary Parties Ruling Pro-European Coalition (holds 53 of 101 seats) Liberal Democratic Party 31 seats Democratic Party 15 seats Liberal Reformist Party 7 seats Independent Parties Liberal Party 5 seats, split from the ruling coalition in February 2013, supports European Union accession Current Parliamentary Opposition (holds 43 of 101 seats) Communist Party 34 seats Party of Socialists 4 seats Smaller Parties/Independents 5 seats 4

5 Which of the parties would you vote for if the parliamentary elections were held next Sunday? Likely voters, n=952 Liberal Democratic Party Democratic Party 1 2 Ruling Pro-European Coalition = 3 Liberal Reformist Party Liberal Party Communist Party 2 Party of Socialists Republican Popular Party People's Anti-Mafia Movement Other None Don't know/refused to answer 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 5

6 Are you going to vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no Don't know/no answer Sep Jun Jan-12 50% 3 Dec Aug Sep May Feb % Nov Nov Apr % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 6

7 What is your opinion about the job the Pro-European Coalition is doing? Very good job Rather good job Rather bad job Very bad job Don t know/no answer Sep % 1 2 Jun % 1 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 7

8 If Moldova was able to enter only one international economic union, who should it be with? The European Union The Customs Union/Eurasian Union Other Don t know/no answer Sep % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 8

9 If a referendum was held today on Moldova joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), how would you vote? For Moldova joining NATO Against Moldova joining NATO Would not vote Don t know/no answer Sep % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 9

10 How would you assess the current relations between Moldova and the following entities? Good Bad Neither good, nor bad Don't know/no answer European Union 7 1 Romania Ukraine 60% 1 1 United States Russia 3 5 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 10

11 Which of these countries do you consider to be the most important economic partners for Moldova? Which of these countries do you consider to be the greatest economic threat to Moldova? Partner Threat 60% % 4 40% 3 30% 30% 2 20% % Russia European Union Romania Ukraine United States None Don't know/no answer 11

12 Which of these countries do you consider to be the most important political partners for Moldova? Which of these countries do you consider to be the greatest political threat to Moldova? Partner Threat 60% 50% 40% 50% % 20% 0% 20% European Union Russia Romania United States Ukraine None Don't know/no answer 12

13 Moldovans Concerned about Russia s Actions in the Region International Republican Institute

14 Who is responsible for the blockage of some Moldovan exports to Russia? First mentioned Second mentioned Russian government 4 1 Moldovan government 1 1 Russian businesses 2 Ukrainian government Moldovan producers The European Union Don't know/no answer

15 What should Moldova do in response to the Russian blockage of some Moldovan exports? Seek other markets for Moldovan goods 1 4 Try to reason with Russia to accept Moldovan goods but without changing the priority of foreign policy of Moldova Fully support the policy of Russia in order to win Russia s support Other 3 Don t know/no answer 15

16 Given the current Russian activities in Ukraine, do you consider Russian troops in Transnistria to be a threat to Moldova? They are a real threat to Moldova They are maybe a threat to Moldova, depending on events in Ukraine They are not a real threat to Moldova Don t know/no answer Sep % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 16

17 What do you think the future of Transnistria should be? Ordinary region of Moldova, without any autonomy A part of the Russian Federation Independent Autonomy within the Republic of Moldova A part of Ukraine Don't know/no answer 0% 0% 0% Sep-14 60% 1 1 Jun Jan Dec Aug % Feb-11 60% 1 Sep May Feb Nov Nov Apr Mar Apr-06 80% 1 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 17

18 How do you evaluate the following recent events in Ukraine? Positively Indifferently Negatively Don't know/no answer Removal of the President V.Yanukovich 4 20% 1 1 Appointment of A.Yatseniuk as Prime Minister of Ukraine Election of P.Poroshenko as the President of Ukraine % Referendum on self-rule held in Eastern Ukraine on May 11, % Crimea joining Russia % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 18

19 Who do you believe is responsible for the current crisis in Ukraine? Previous Ukrainian government Russia Certain groups of Ukrainian people New Ukrainian government European Union Other Sep % Jun % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 19

20 Moldovans are Concerned about the Economy & Corruption International Republican Institute

21 What are the most important problems that Moldova is facing at the moment? (Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent) Unemployment Corruption Low income High prices/inflation Bad government/president Emigration Poverty Roads European integration Political crisis Indifference of the people Economic situation Instability/Chaos in the country Education problems Crime Disruption of exports to Russia Social assistance The problems with European and Eurasian unions Economic development Healthcare system Don't know/no answer % 20% 30% 40% 21

22 What are the most important problems your town/village is facing at the moment? (Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent) Roads Unemployment Low income Cleanliness Transportation High prices/inflation Insufficient streets lighting Water supply Sanitation Corruption Gas supply Poverty Emigration Expensive housing/utilities Inefficient work of civil servants Education Social assistance Traffic jams Healthcare system Crime Don't know/no answer % 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 22

23 What are the most important problems facing you and your household? (Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent) Low incomes Unemployment Inflation/High prices Insufficient streets lighting Poverty Expensive housing/utilities Health Emigration Expensive drugs and medical services Lonliness Lack of social assistance Lack of housing Corruption Don't know/no answer % 20% 30% 40% 50% 23

24 Is corruption a big problem in Moldova today? It is a very big issue It is a big issue It is not a big issue It is not an issue at all Don't know/no answer 0% 0% Sep Jun Jan Dec-11 80% 1 Aug Feb Sep May Feb Nov Nov Apr-08 60% 2 Mar Mar-06 Nov % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 24

25 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Moldova changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/no answer Sep-14 Jun-14 Jan-12 Dec-11 Aug-11 Feb-11 Sep-10 May-10 Feb-10 Nov-09 Jun-09 Nov-08 Apr-08 Mar-07 Apr-06 Nov-04 Mar % % % % 1 30% % % % 1 20% % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 25

26 Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your household changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/no answer Sep Jun Jan Dec Aug Feb Sep May Feb Nov Jun Nov Apr Mar Apr Nov % Mar % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 26

27 In your opinion, how will economic situation of Moldova change in 2014? Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/no answer Sep Jun % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 27

28 Which of these statements is closest to your own point of view? Our society needs serious reforms (structural and systemic change) Our society needs gradual reforms which preserve the existing system Our society has to be protected from the forces who want to change the current order Don't know/no answer Sep Jun % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 28

29 International Republican Institute Moldovans on Government Performance

30 Mar-04 Nov-04 Apr-06 Mar-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 Jun-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-14 Sep-14 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Moldova are going in the right direction or wrong direction? 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/no answer % % % *From January 2012 June 2014, IRI did not conduct polls in Moldova 30

31 How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Moldova? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know/no answer Sep Jun % 1 Jan Dec Aug Feb Sep May % 2 Feb Nov % 1 Jun Nov % 1 Apr Mar Apr Nov Mar % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 31

32 How much interest do you have in politics? Not interested Medium interest Interested Don't know/no answer Sep Jun Jan Dec Aug-11 40% 30% 2 Feb Sep May Feb Nov-09 Jun % 30% 30% 3 Nov Apr Mar-07 Mar Nov Mar % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 32

33 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the government is doing its job? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don t know/no answer Sep % Jun % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 33

34 Which politicians or public persons do you trust the most? (Spontaneous) Vladimir Voronin 2 Iurie Leanca 2 Vlad Filat 1 Marian Lupu 1 Renato Usatii Dorin Chirtoaca Igor Dodon Michai Ghimpu Igor Corman Mark Tkaciuk Sergiu Mocanu Ion Hadarca Zinaida Grecianii Other 1 None 1 Don't know/no answer 34

35 How would you rate the following political leaders? Iurie Leanca Dorin Chirtoaca Marian Lupu Igor Corman Vladimir Voronin Vlad Filat Renato Usatii Nicolae Timofti Maia Sandu Igor Dodon Mihai Ghimpu Valeru Strelet Valentina Buliga Dumitru Diacov Ion Hadarca Natalia Gherman Zinaida Grecianii Mark Tkaciuk Liliana Palihovici Valeru Munteanu Iurie Munteanu Mihai Godea Ion Sturza Vadim Misin Tatiana Potang Oleg Bodrug Stella Jantuan Favorable Unfavorable Have not heard of Don't know/no answer % 20% % % % 40% % % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 35

36 Now I am going to read you the names of some Moldovan and international institutions. Please tell me about each of them, what is your opinion about the activity of each of these institutions? Moldovan mass media Moldovan Mitropoly (church) European Union Education system Bessarabian Mitropoly (church) Local authorities Moldovan Government Army United Nations United States Commonwealth of Independent States Moldovan Parliament Central Electoral Commission North Atlantic Treaty Organization President s office Nongovernmental organizations Favorable Unfavorable Don t know/no answer Police authorities Healthcare system Political parties Unions of businessmen Central bank Courts of justice % % % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 36

37 International Republican Institute Sources of information

38 Which of these media outlets do you use for gaining political information? TV news/programs 9 9 Radio news/programs 5 3 Relatives/Friends 3 3 Internet 3 3 Articles in newspapers 2 2 Billboards/Stands in the streets 2 Sep-14 Leaflets/Other free information by mail 1 Jun-14 Meetings with politicians 1 Work colleagues 1 Articles in magazines Other None 38

39 In general, what is the influence of each of these forms of election campaigning? Please tell me about each of them, does it have a great influence, some influence, not much influence or no influence at all? Great/Some influence Not much/no influence Don't know/no answer TV ads 7 2 Meetings with politicians 7 2 Meetings with/opinions of respected people 6 2 Radio ads Visits of party or candidate representatives to your house % 3 Articles in newspapers about the candidates 4 4 Leaflets 4 4 Paid ads in press for the candidate or party 4 4 Billboards 4 5 Personal letters to you from the candidate 4 5 Telephone calls to your house from the political party or candidate 4 4 Slogans/Texts on transport means 3 5 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 39

40 How often do you use the Internet? Every day 5-6 days a week 3-4 days a week 1-2 days a week Sep Jun Jan Dec Aug Feb Sep May Feb Nov % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 40

41 Where do you access the Internet? (Internet users, n=619) At home 9 At work 1 At school/university At friend s home Internet café Other 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 41

42 By what means do you access the Internet? (Internet users, n=619) PC desktop 5 PC laptop 5 Mobile phone 2 Tablet 1 Don't know/no answer 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 42

43 Do you use any of the following social media sites? (Internet users, n=619) Odnoklasniki 8 Facebook 5 Vkontakte 2 Twitter MoiMir Linkedin LiveJournal 0% I don t use social media 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 43

44 International Republican Institute Demographics

45 RELIGION ETHNICITY EDUCATION AGE GENDER Demographics Male Female years years 50 years and older Unfinished secondary Secondary Vocational Higher/Incomplete higher Romanian Moldovan Ukrainian Russian Gagauz Other Russian Orthodox Romanian Ortodox Other None % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 45

46 SETTLEME NT TYPE BASIC SOURCES OF LIVELIHOOD SITUATION OF FAMILY OCCUPATION Demographics Manager/Director/Patron Specialist Technician White collar Services, trade Blue collar Unqualified worker Farmer Student Retired/Not working Housewife Unemployed/Looking for job Unemployed/Not looking for job Other No answer Bad Average Good No answer My salary or the income of enterprise or farmer activity The salary or incomes of some of the members of family Sale of products of the part-time farm Use of products of the part-time farm Social benefits The help of relatives/friends in a form of money or food and goods Something else Don't know/no answer Chisinau Mid-sized/Small town Rural area % 50% 100% 46

47 International Republican Institute (202)