Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine

Transcription

1 Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine September 12-25, 2014 International Republican Institute

2 Detailed Methodology The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine. Data was collected throughout Ukraine (excluding Crimea), including the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, between September 12 25, 2014, through face-to-face interviews at respondents home. The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative for the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement. Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent s selection procedures. Stage one: 25 official administrative regions of Ukraine were defined (24 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv). All regions of Ukraine were surveyed except Crimea. Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to the size: City more than one million residents City 500, ,000 residents City 100, ,000 residents City 50,000-99,000 residents City to 50,000 residents Village Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region. Stage three: primary sampling units were described. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. Response rate was 63 percent. Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. The survey was funded by U.S. Agency for International Development. 2

3 International Republican Institute Strong Majority in Every Region Opposes Russia s Military Aggression

4 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine? Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don't know/refused to answer September % 7 April % 73% March % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 4

5 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine? Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer West 3% 9 Center 2% 12% 8 South 13% 7 East 13% 6 1 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 5

6 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine? Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer Ukrainianspeaking citizens 2% 8 3% Russian-speaking citizens 13% 6 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 6

7 In your opinion, which of the following should Ukraine do? Remain a unitary country Become a federal country Other Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea Be divided into several countries Difficult to answer/no answer September % April % March % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 7

8 To what extent do you agree with each of the following statements? Completely agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Completely disagree Don't know/refused to answer I am proud to be a Ukrainian citizen 4 33% My future depends primarily on me 23% I feel respected by Ukrainian society % 1 With hard work one can achieve a lot in life 12% 23% 2 2 Ordinary citizens like me can influence government decisions 2 32% 2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 8

9 REGION AGE To what extent do you agree with the following statement? I am proud to be a Ukrainian citizen. Completely agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Completely disagree Don't know/refused to answer years 53% 32% 3% years 43% 3 50 years and older 50% 3 3% West 7 20% 2% Center 5 30% 2% South 33% 4 1 3% 3% East 2 40% % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 9

10 How would you evaluate the efforts of the new authorities of Ukraine to secure the territorial integrity of Ukraine? They've done everything that could be done They've done very little of what could be done Difficult to answer/no answer They've only done some of what could be done They've been completely inactive September % 33% 1 April % 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 10

11 Who should pay for the reconstruction of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine which were damaged during the military activities there? Russia 5 Donetsk and Luhansk regions 32% Other regions of Ukraine 1 European Union 1 United States 1 Commonwealth of Independent States Other Don't know/refused to answer 13% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 11

12 In your opinion, what should Ukraine do about Crimea? Should it use all available resources to return Crimea to Ukraine or should it accept the loss of Crimea to Russia? Use all available resources to return Crimea to Ukraine Accept the loss of Crimea to Russia Difficult to answer/no answer 12

13 Do you support the anti-terrorist operation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions? Fully support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Fully oppose Don't know/refused to answer 13

14 International Republican Institute Clear Support for Kyiv Government

15 Do you approve of the job Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is doing? 1 13% Strongly approve Somewhat approve 22% 40% Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/refused to answer 15

16 If Ukraine were only able to enter one international economic union, which of the following should it be? European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other Don't know/no answer September April % 2 13% March % 2 1 February September % 3 1 May % 3 1 August % 42% 20% May March % 1 November % 40% 3% 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 16

17 How would you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries? Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/refused to answer Poland 5 3 2% Georgia 5 3 3% Belarus 5 3 3% European Union % Lithuania 4 4 3% Canada 4 4 3% United States 4 40% 1 3% Moldova 3 5 Germany 3 53% 1 2% Russia % 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 17

18 What is your opinion of the work of each of these institutions? Is it favorable or unfavorable? Favorable Unfavorable Don't know/no answer Army 6 23% The church Ukrainian media Local authorities % Presidential administration 42% 4 13% Education system Cabinet of Ministers 3 52% Governors' office 3 42% 20% Central Election Commission Ombudsman's office Security service of Ukraine Trade unions 2 20% 53% Police 1 7 Prosecutor's office 1 73% 12% Parliament 1 8 Central bank 1 73% 13% Political parties Courts % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 18

19 Do you approve of the job the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers under Arseniy Yatsenyuk is doing? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/refused to answer September % April March % % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 19

20 What is your opinion about each of these members of the Ukrainian government? Favorable Unfavorable Have not heard the name Don't know/no answer President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko 5 3 Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk 5 3 Speaker of Parliament Oleksandr Turchynov 33% 5 1 Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov 2 53% 1 Minister of Foreign Affairs Pavlo Klimkin Prosecutor General Vitaliy Yarema Deputy Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman 2 33% 2 1 Minister of Defense Valeriy Heletey 23% 4 13% 1 Minister of Economic Development Pavlo Sheremeta % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20

21 International Republican Institute Voter Enthusiasm for Parliamentary Elections is High

22 If early parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, would you vote in such elections?* Definitely yes Probably yes Probably not Definitely not Don't know/refused to answer September % 1 April % 1 March % 33% 12% February September % May % 3 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% * In surveys conducted in 2013 and in March and April 2014, the wording of the question was: If pre-term parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such elections? 22

23 If early parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, would you vote in such elections? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably not Definitely not Don't know/refused to answer West 63% 2 3% Center 53% 2 3% South 1 43% 2 East % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 23

24 If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the elections, which political party would you vote for? (Likely voters, n=880) Bloc of Petro Poroshenko (V.Klychko, Yu.Lutsenko) 32% Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (О.Lyashko) Batkivshchyna (Yu.Tymoshenko) Civic Position (A.Hrytsenko, V.Hatsko) People s Front (A.Yatsenyuk, О.Turchynov) Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok) Association SAMOPOMICH (H.Hopko, A.Sadovyi) Strong Ukraine (S.Tihipko) Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) Party of Regions (M.Dobkin, R.Akhmetov) Centre (V.Rabinovych) Right Sector (D.Yarosh) Powerful Ukraine (L.Orobets) Other 3% 3% 2% 2% Difficult to answer/don't know 1 0% 1 20% 2 30% 3 24

25 In your opinion, was the presidential election on May 25, 2014 free and fair? 1 2 Absolutely free and fair Mostly free and fair Not very free and fair 1 Absolutely not free and fair Don't know/refused to answer 3 25

26 International Republican Institute Mood of Ukraine

27 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction? 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/no answer 73% % % 2 20% % 13% % 0% November 2011 March 2012 May 2012 August 2012 May 2013 September 2013 February 2014 March 2014 April 2014 September

28 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Ukraine changed? 2% 0% Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/refused to answer 28

29 Which of the following issues are the three most important for Ukraine? (Three responses) Military conflict in the Donbas Corruption within the state bodies Unemployment Political instability Relations with Russia Control over price growth Hryvnia devaluation Low industry production Government incompetence Lack/Possibility of cutting off utilities Russian presence in the Crimea Social protection for poor Crime Delay in salary/pension payments Rights to land ownership Russian language status Other Difficult to answer/no answer 2 23% 20% % 2% 3 73% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 29

30 Do you think it is acceptable for groups of people to use each of the following methods of protest? Acceptable Unacceptable Don't know/no answer Collecting signatures for petition/letter 8 1 Legal demonstrations 7 2 Legal strikes 63% 2 Boycott 6 30% Demonstrations without permission 2 6 Strikes without permission 2 6 Blocking of major roads 20% 7 Occupation of buildings or enterprises 1 7 Blocking of railway lines 1 7 Blocking of airports 13% 7 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 30

31 Are you willing to live through some economic difficulties today (e.g., higher tariffs and prices) if it leads to long-term improvements in the quality of your life? Definitely willing Somewhat willing Not very willing Definitely not willing Don't know/refused to answer 31

32 Are you willing to live through some economic difficulties today (e.g., higher tariffs and prices) if it leads to long-term improvements in the quality of your life? Definitely willing Somewhat willing Not very willing Definitely not willing Don't know/refused to answer West 3 52% 3% Center South 3 20% 2 East 32% 2 2 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 32

33 Would your family be willing to save on gas, heat and electricity if you were confident that it would strengthen Ukraine s position against Russia? % 3 Definitely willing Somewhat willing Not very willing Definitely not willing Don't know/refused to answer 33

34 Would your family be willing to save on gas, heat and electricity if you were confident that it would strengthen Ukraine s position against Russia? Definitely willing Somewhat willing Not very willing Definitely not willing Don't know/refused to answer West 33% 53% 3% Center % South 3 20% 2 East % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 34

35 Should Ukrainian women serve in influential positions in the national government? 12% 8 Yes No Don't know/refused to answer 35

36 Should Ukraine institute a quota system to guarantee a minimum number of women in the Parliament? 1 3 Yes No Don't know/refused to answer 4 36

37 International Republican Institute Mass Media

38 Which of these sources of information do you use for obtaining political information? Ukrainian TV 8 Internet Relatives/Friends 3 4 Articles in Ukrainian newspapers Ukrainian radio 2 2 Russian TV Colleagues at work 12% 12% Billboards, stands in the streets Russian radio Meetings with politicians Articles in Ukrainian magazines Leaflets/Other free information by post None Don't know/refused to answer 3% 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 38

39 How many times per week do you access the Internet? Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never Refused to answer/don't know September % 42% February % 40% 2% September % May August % May March November % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 39

40 International Republican Institute Demographics

41 OCCUPATION EDUCATION LANGUAG E SPOKEN AT HOME AGE GENDER Demographics Male 4 Female years 22% years 3 50 years and older 4 Ukrainian 6 Russian 33% Secondary or lower 2 Vocational 40% Higher 32% Blue collar 2 Farmer White collar 1 Higher or medium executive 3% Retired/Not working 2 Student Housewife Unemployed Other 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 41

42 REGIONS SETTLEMENT TYPE SITUATION OF FAMILY RELIGION Demographics Orthodox Greek Catholic Other Atheist Believe in God but don't belong to any religion No answer Bad Average Good No answer City with more than 1 million City with thousand City with thousand City with thousand Up to 50 thousand Rural area West Center South East 2% 3% % % 50% 100% 42

43 Demographics Oblasts in the West: Volynska, Transcarpathian, Ivano-Frankivska, Lvivska, Rivnenska, Ternopilska, Chernivetska, Khmelnytska, Oblasts in the Center: Vinnytska, Kirovogradska, Poltavska, Cherkaska, Zhytomyrska, Sumska, Chernihivska, Kyivska and the city of Kyiv Oblasts in the South: Odeska, Khersonska, Mykolaivska, Zaporizka Oblasts in the East: Dnipropetrovska, Donetska, Kharkivska, Luhanska 43

44 What can you say about the financial status of your family? Need to save money for food Enough money for food but it is necessary to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes Enough money for food and necessary clothes and shoes. It is necessary to save or borrow money for such purchases as a good suit, a mobile phone or a vacuum cleaner Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and other purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchasing more expensive things (such as a laundry machine or a refrigerator) Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and expensive purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchases like a car or an apartment I can buy anything at any time Don't know/no answer September % 3 13% April % 32% 3 13% 2% March % 4 13% February % September 2013 May 2013 August 2012 May % % % % 20% 1 1 2% 0.3% % 0.3% 3% 0. March 2012 Nov % 3 30% % 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 44

45 International Republican Institute (202)