Public Opinion Survey of Residents of Ukraine. November 15 December 14, 2017

Transcription

1 Public Opinion Survey of Residents of Ukraine November 15 December 14, 2017

2 Methodology The survey was conducted by GfK Ukraine on behalf of the Center for Insights in Survey Research. The survey was conducted throughout Ukraine (except for the occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas) from November 15 to December 14, 2017, through face-to-face interviews at respondents homes. The sample consisted of 2,400 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by gender, age, region, and settlement size. An additional 4,800 respondents were also surveyed in the cities of Dnipro, Khmelnytskyi, Mariupol and Mykolaiv (i.e. 1,200 respondents in each city). A multi-stage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday methods for respondent selection Stage One: The territory of Ukraine was split into 25 administrative regions (24 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv). The survey was conducted throughout all regions of Ukraine, with the exception of the occupied territories of Crimea and the Donbas. Stage Two: The selection of settlements was based on towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to their size: Cities with a population of more than 1 million Cities with a population of between 500, ,000 Cities with a population of between 100, ,000 Cities with a population of between 50,000-99,000 Cities with a population up to 50,000 Villages Cities and villages were selected at random. The number of selected cities/villages in each of the regions is proportional to the share of population living in cities/villages of a certain type in each region. Stage Three: Primary Sampling Points (PSP) were described. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 1.7 percent for the full sample. The average response rate was 61.9 percent. Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. The survey was financed by U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). 2

3 Methodology In addition to the national sample, four oversamples were conducted in the cities of Dnipro, Khmelnytskyi, Mariupol and Mykolaiv. The data was collected in each city from November 15 to December 14, 2017 through face-to-face interviews at respondents homes. The sample size in each of the four cities consisted of 1,200 citizens aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. The samples are representative in terms of gender, age, and size of settlement. A multi-stage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday methods for respondent selection. The margin of error does not exceed 2.8 percent for the full sample in each city. The response rate in each city was: 58 percent in Dnipro 76.2 percent in Khmelnytskyi 67.2 percent in Mariupol 66.6 percent in Mykolaiv Regional Oversamples Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. 3

4 Geographical Key *Due to the Russian occupation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, residents of Crimea and the separatist-controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts ( the Donbas ) were not surveyed in this poll. 4

5 National Mood

6 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer 80% 70% 60% 50% % % 7 40% 3 30% % % % 1 10% % % Nov 2011 May 2012 May 2013 Feb 2014 April 2014 Sept 2014 July 2015 Sept 2015 Nov 2015 Feb 2016 June 2016 Sept 2016 April 2017 June 2017 Sept 2017 Dec

7 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Ukraine changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Difficult to answer December September 2017 < June April 2017 < 3 37% September 2016 < 3 40% June February % 3 5 November % 4 September July % September % 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 7

8 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation of your household changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Difficult to answer December 2017 < September 2017 < 27% 3 3 June2017 < April % September 2016 < 2 37% 3 June % February % November % September July September % 40% April % 3 2 March February September % 17% May % 1 September % 27% 1 May % 1 March November % 3 1 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 8

9 In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine to change? Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Difficult to answer December % 27% 2 1 September % % June April September % 27% 1 June % 1 February November % September % 1 July % September % % April % March February September % 2 17% 1 May September % May March November % 30% 3 17% 1 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 9

10 Assessment of Ukrainian Authorities Performance

11 Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer December September June April September % 30% 4 7% June % February November September % July September % % April March % 1 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 11

12 Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the Cabinet of Ministers under Volodymyr Hroisman?* Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer December September % June % April % 4 September June % 2 2 February November % September July % 3 5 September % 1 10% April March % 27% 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% * Volodymyr Hroisman has been Prime Minister of Ukraine since April Previous IRI polling data reflects attitudes toward prior prime ministers. 12

13 Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the Parliament of Ukraine? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer December % 27% 5 September June % April 2017 < 7% 2 60% September 2016 < 7% 2 5 June February November % 3 5 7% September % 3 4 July September % April March February % 50% 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 13

14 What is your opinion of each of the following Ukrainian politicians or members of the Ukrainian government? Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Have not heard the name Difficult to answer Head of the political party Civic Position, Anatoliy Hrytsenko Former MP, leader of the Okean Elzy band, Svyatoslav Vakarchuk 1 10% 2 40% Mayor of Lviv Andriy Sadovyi MP, leader of the political party Fatherland, Yulia Tymoshenko % Leader of the political party For Life (Za Zhyttia), Vadym Rabinovich Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman % MP, leader of the Opposition Bloc, Yuriy Boyko Former Head of SBU Valentyn Nalyvaychenko President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko Mayor of Kyiv Vitaliy Klychko % 1 MP, Opposition Bloc, Oleksandr Vilkul 17% Leader of the political party Svoboda, Oleh Tyahnybok 5 1 Leader of the Movement of New Forces, Mikhail Saakashvili 5 1 MP, leader of the Radical party Oleh Lyashko 2 5 Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko 2 57% 10% Head of the Parliament Andriy Parubiy 7% Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Oleksandr Turchynov 7% 2 57% 10% Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov Former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk

15 What is your opinion of each of the following Ukrainian politicians or members of the Ukrainian government? (continued) Favorable Unfavorable 80% 60% 40% 0% Petro Poroshenko % % 27% 27% % 80% 60% 40% 0% Volodymyr Hroisman 77% % % 1 1 Apr.14 Sep.14 Jul.15 Sep.15Nov.15Feb.16Jun.16 Sep.16 Apr.17 Jun.17 Sep.17Dec. 17 Vitaliy Klychko 80% % 60% % 80% 60% Andriy Parubiy % 0% 37% 4 47% % % 0% % Feb.16 Jun.16 Sep.16 Apr.17 Jun.17 Sep.17 Dec

16 What is your opinion of each of the following Ukrainian politicians or members of the Ukrainian government? (continued) Favorable Unfavorable 80% 60% Yuliya Tymoshenko % 6 70% % 60% Oleh Tyahnybok % 7 70% % 40% 0% % % 60% Mikhail Saakashvili % % 7 80% 60% Valentyn Nalyvaychenko % 60% 40% 0% Sep.15 Nov.15 Feb.16 Jun.16 Sep.16 Apr.17 Jun.17 Sep.17Dec % 0% 1 17% 1 17% Nov.15 Jun.16 Sep.16 Apr.17 Jun.17 Sep.17 Dec

17 What is your opinion of each of the following Ukrainian politicians or members of the Ukrainian government? (continued) Favorable Unfavorable 80% Yuriy Boyko 70% % 67% % 80% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 60% 60% 5 50% % 0% % % 0% Jun. 16 Sep. 16 Apr.17 Jun.17 Sep. 17 Dec % 60% 40% 0% Andriy Sadovyi %

18 What is your opinion of each of the following Ukrainian politicians or members of the Ukrainian government? (continued) 100% 80% 60% 40% 0% Arseniy Yatsenyuk % % % % 7% 10% 80% 60% 40% 0% Oleh Lyashko % % 8 10%

19 Foreign Policy

20 If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, which one of the following should it be? European Union Customs Union Other Difficult to answer December % 1 10% 2 September June April September % June February November % September % 17% 1 1 July September % 1 April % 1 March % 1 February September % 17% May % 37% 1 September May % 4 17% March % 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 20

21 If Ukraine could only enter one international economic union, which of the following should it be? (continued) (Disaggregated by region) European Union Customs Union Other Difficult to answer West 7 1 Center % 2 South East 2 30% 1 3 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 21

22 If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote? Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would not vote Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO Difficult to answer December % September June % 27% 1 2 April % 1 1 September % June % February % 10% 1 November % 10% 1 September % July % 1 1 September % April % 7% 1 March % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 22

23 If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote? (Disaggregated by region) Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would not vote Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO Difficult to answer West Center 4 7% 30% South 27% East % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 23

24 How do you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries? Very warm Warm Neutral Cold Very cold Difficult to answer/no answer Poland European Union 3 4 Lithuania Canada 10% 3 47% Germany 7% 3 50% United States 3 47% Belarus 7% 3 50% < Hungary 2 5 Romania 6 Russia % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 24

25 How do you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries? (continued) Warm Cold 60% 50% 40% European Union % 4 47% % 47% 40%4 3 60% 50% 40% Poland 57% % 50% 4 40% 3 30% 30% 10% 10% % 1 7% 10% 1 7% 7% 0% 0% Germany Lithuania 60% 50% 40% 30% 10% 0% % % % 60% 50% 40% 30% 10% 0% % 47% 47% % 7% 10% 25

26 How do you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries? (continued) Warm Cold United States Canada 60% 50% 40% 30% 10% 0% % 4 40% 40% 3 40% % 4 40% % 60% 50% 40% 30% 10% 0% % % 7% Russia Belarus 6 70% % % % 50% % % 40% 40% 30% % 17% % % 10% 7% 7% 10% 0% 0% Sep.14 Jul.15 Sep.15 Nov.15 Feb.16 Jun.16 Sep.16 Apr.17 Jun.17 Sep.17 Dec

27 Views on Issues

28 Which of the following are the three most important issues for Ukraine? Corruption within the state bodies Military conflict in the Donbas Growth of prices Low industry production Unemployment Government incompetence Political instability Social protection for poor Crime Hryvnia devaluation Healthcare Relations with Russia Delay in salary/pension payments Rights to land ownership Russian presence in the Crimea Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water Russian language status Other Difficult to answer/no answer % % % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 28

29 Which three of the following issues are the most important for you personally? Growth of prices 6 Military conflict in the Donbas Social protection for poor Unemployment Healthcare Corruption within the state bodies Hryvnia devaluation Government incompetence Low industry production Crime Political instability % Delay in salary/pension payments Relations with Russia Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water Rights to land ownership Russian presence in the Crimea Russian language status Other Difficult to answer/no answer 0% 40% 60% 80% 100% 29

30 Which of the following sources of information do you use to obtain political information? (Multiple responses accepted) TV (i.e. news, programs) 8 Internet 4 Relatives, friends 3 Articles in newspapers Radio (i.e. news, programs) 1 17% Colleagues at work 1 Billboards, stands in the streets Meetings with politicians Articles in magazines Leaflets, other free materials None Difficult to answer/no answer 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 30

31 How many times per week do you access the Internet? 3 4 Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never Don t know/no answer 7% 10% 31

32 How concerned are you about the safety of roads in Ukraine? Very concerned Somewhat concerned 27% 6 Not very concerned Not concerned Difficult to answer/no answer 32

33 Do you support the following changes to the state policy aimed at decreasing road accidents and deaths on roads? Introduction of automatized speed control and more severe punishments for speeding 2 5 Fully support Somewhat support Somewhat do not support Do not support Difficicult to answer 33

34 Do you support the following changes to the state policy aimed at decreasing road accidents and deaths on roads? (continued) Increasing fines for traffic violations resulting in injuries and/or deaths 27% 5 Fully support Somewhat support Somewhat do not support Do not support Difficicult to answer 34

35 Do you support the following changes to the state policy aimed at decreasing road accidents and deaths on roads? (continued) Introduction of the penalty points system and suspension of driving licenses for more reckless drivers 2 6 Fully support Somewhat support Somewhat do not support Do not support Difficicult to answer 35

36 Protests

37 How much have you heard about protests organized near the Parliament of Ukraine beginning October 17th?* 2 Have heard a lot 3 Have heard something Haven t heard anything Difficult to answer/no answer 4 *On October 17, 2017, several hundred anti-government protestors gathered outside Ukraine's parliament building, setting up makeshift tents and stating their intention to stay until their demands were met; namely, the creation of anti-corruption courts, the abolition of parliamentary immunity from prosecution, and an overhaul of Ukraine's electoral legislation. 37

38 Do you support those protests? (Respondents who have heard about the protests: N=1,490) 1 Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat do not support 1 2 Do not support at all Difficult to answer/no answer 2 38

39 Do you think it is acceptable for groups of people to use each of the following methods of protests? Fully acceptable More acceptable than not More unacceptable than acceptable Not at all acceptable Difficult to answer Collecting signatures for petition, letter 4 3 Legal demonstrations 40% 3 1 Legal strikes % 7% Boycott 2 3 Demonstrations without permission 1 27% 3 1 Strikes without permission Blocking of major roads 17% 2 3 7% Occupation of buildings or enterprises Blocking of railway lines Blocking of airports 10% 2 4 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 39

40 In your opinion, how effective are each of the following methods of protests? Very effective Somewhat effective Somewhat ineffective Not effective at all Difficult to answer Legal demonstrations % 1 10% Legal strikes Boycott 3 30% 1 1 Collecting signatures for petitions 30% Demonstrations without permission 7% % 1 Strikes without permission 7% Blocking of major roads Blocking of railway lines 10% Occupation of buildings or enterprises 7% % 17% Blocking of airports % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 40

41 Electoral Mood

42 Do you support the idea of holding early parliamentary elections in Ukraine? Definitely yes Somewhat yes Somewhat no Definitely no Difficult to answer December % 1 September June April % 1 September June % February November % September % % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 42

43 If early parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, would you vote? December 2017 September 2017 June 2017 April 2017 September 2016 June 2016 February 2016 November 2015 September 2015 July 2015 September 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 September 2013 May 2013 September 2012 May 2012 March 2012 November 2011 Definitely yes Somewhat yes Somewhat no Definitely no Difficult to answer % % % 10% % % 3 40% % % 3 3 7% % % 1 1 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 43

44 If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the election, which political party would you vote for? (All respondents) Fatherland Party (Batkivshchyna) Opposition Bloc For Life Party (Za Zhyttia) Bloc Petro Poroshenko "Solidarnist" Civic Position Radical Party Self-Reliance Party (Samopomich) Svoboda Movement of New Forces UKROP Agrarian Party of Ukraine Democratic Alliance Left Opposition Revival Party (Vidrodzhennia) Justice Movement Nash Krai Party People's Front Other I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know 2 3 0% 10% % 3 40% 4 50% 44

45 If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated for which party would you vote? (Likely voters: N=1,890) Fatherland Party (Batkivshchyna) Opposition Bloc For Life Party (Za Zhyttia) Вloc Petro Poroshenko "Solidarnist" Civic Position Radical Party Self-Reliance Party (Samopomich) Svoboda Movement of New Forces UKROP Agrarian Party of Ukraine Left Opposition Democratic Alliance Revival Party (Vidrodzhennia) Justice Movement Nash Krai People's Front National Movement of D. Yarosh Strong Ukraine Other Difficult to answer/don t know 7% 7% 10% 3 0% 10% % 3 40% 4 50% 45

46 If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the election, which political party would you vote for? (All respondents) Jul.15 Sep. 15 Nov.15 Feb.16 Jun.16 Sep.16 Apr. 17 Jun.17 Sept.17 Dec. 17 Fatherland Party (Batkivshchyna) 10% Bloc Petro Poroshenko (Solidarnist) 10% 1 7% 7% For Life Party (Za Zhyttia) Opposition Bloc 10% Civic Position Radical Party Self-Reliance Party (Samopomich) 7% 7% Svoboda UKROP Movement of New Forces Other party % 10% % I would not vote % Difficult to answer 1 17% % 3 46

47 Oversample: Dnipro (N= 1,200) November 15 December 14, 2017

48 Dnipro Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine and your city are going in the right direction or wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer June Ukraine September % 1 December % June Dnipro September December % 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 48

49 Dnipro Are you proud of your city? Definitely yes Somewhat Not very Definitely no Difficult to answer June September December % 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 49

50 Dnipro If Ukraine could enter only one international economic union, which of the following should it be? European Union (EU) Customs Union of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan Other Difficult to answer June % September % 1 2 December % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote? Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO Would not vote Difficult to answer June September December % 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 50

51 Dnipro In your opinion, which areas should be a top priority for your municipal authorities? Medical institutions Housing and communal services Roads Security Social protection Industrial areas/industrial development Public transportation Government transparency and openness Environment Garbage collection Street lighting Yards and areas near buildings Heating Establishing mechanisms for citizens to participate in local decision-making Administrative services provision Kindergartens Schools Land issues Sports facilities Sewage Pavement Accessibility for persons with disabilities Public parks and gardens Parking Water supply Street markets Cultural premises Other Difficult to answer/no answer < 1 < % 37% 5 47% 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 51

52 Dnipro How would you rate the quality of each of the following services and/or public goods that are available in your city? Excellent Good Average Bad Terrible Difficult to answer Universities, technical institutes, colleges Schools Street markets and trade premises Water supply Public parks and gardens Kindergartens Sport facilities (stadiums, sport clubs, etc.) Culture premises (concert halls, libraries, etc.) Trash collection Street lighting Sewage Police activities Transportation infrastructure/public transport Heating Roads Yards and areas near buildings Parking Environment Sidewalks Accessibility for persons with disabilities Medical institutions Industrial zones/industrial development % % % % 1 40% 7% 30% 37% % < 7% 3 < % 40% 1 17% 1 1 < 2 27% < % % % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 52

53 Dnipro In the past two years, have you had to interact with your city government offices (mayoral office, executive committee, city council, rayon council, rayon administration, communal enterprises)? 6 Yes No Difficult to answer/no answer 7% 2 53

54 Dnipro Over the past two years, have you interacted with your city government offices (mayoral office, executive committee, city council, rayon council, rayon administration, communal enterprises)? If so, how would you rate the service you received from the local authorities? (Respondents who answered yes: N=300) Excellent Good Average Bad Terrible Difficult to answer Level of office staff s knowledge on the subject matter 37% 37% 1 Simplicity and clarity of the decisions and/or advice provided by officials 40% 37% 1 Quality of service received 3 40% 17% Manner in which office staff treated you Waiting time % 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 54

55 Dnipro Why haven t you interacted with your city government officials? (Respondents who have not interacted with city government offices: N= 720) I didn t have reason to interact with them I don t trust my city authorities to objectively solve my problems My city authorities don t have skills and knowledge to solve my problems Don t know/no answer 8 55

56 Dnipro Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of your mayor and city council? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer June % 1 1 Mayor September December % 4 1 June % City Council September % 3 1 7% December % 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 56

57 Dnipro How would you rate the accessibility of information about each of the following? Easily accessible Somewhat accessible Somewhat inaccessible Inaccessible Difficult to answer June % 1 2 Mayor September 2017 December2017 7% % 1 1 City council June 2017 September 2017 December2017 7% % 27% 2 2 7% 2 1 Communal enterprises June % 2 September December % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 57

58 Dnipro If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, whom would you vote for? (All respondents) UKROP For Life Party (Za Zhyttia) 1 1 Fatherland Party (Batkivshchyna) Bloc Petro Poroshenko "Solidarnist" Opposition Bloc 7% Radical Party Civic Position Self-Reliance Party (Samopomich) Strong Ukraine Movement of New Forces People's Front Power of People (Syla Lyudey) Other I would not vote 1 Difficult to answer/don t know 2 0% 10% 30% 40% 58

59 Dnipro If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, for whom would you vote? (Likely voters: N=1,001) UKROP For Life Party (Za Zhyttia) 1 1 Fatherland Party (Batkivshchyna) Bloc Petro Рoroshenko "Solidarnist" Opposition Bloc 10% Radical Party Civic Position Strong Ukraine Self Reliance Party (Samopomich) Movement of New Forces People's Front Power of People (Syla Lyudey) National Movement of D. Yarosh Justice Other Difficult to answer/don t know 2 0% 10% 30% 40% 59

60 Dnipro How concerned are you about the safety of roads in Ukraine? 2 Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not very concerned Not concerned at all 67% Difficult to answer/no answer 60

61 Oversample: Khmelnytskyi (N=1,200) November 15 December 14, 2017

62 Khmelnytskyi Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine and your city are going in the right direction or wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer June % 4 1 Ukraine September December June Khmelnytskyi September 2017 December % 7% 10% 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 62

63 Khmelnytskyi Are you proud of your city? Definitely yes Somewhat Not very Definitely no Difficult to answer June September % 1 < December < 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 63

64 Khmelnytskyi If Ukraine could enter only one international economic union, which one of the following should it be? European Union (EU) Customs Union of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan Other Difficult to answer June % 1 September December % 1 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote? Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO Would not vote Difficult to answer June September % December % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 64

65 Khmelnytskyi In your opinion, which areas should be a top priority for your municipal authorities? Housing and communal services Medical institutions Yards and areas near buildings Roads Public transportation Industrial areas/industrial development Social protection Increasing government transparency and openness Parking Security Schools Environment Establishing mechanisms for citizens to participate in local decision-making Kindergartens Garbage collection Sewage Accessibility for persons with disabilities Street lighting Heating Water supply Pavement Land issues Sports Facilities Administrative services provision Public parks and gardens Cultural premises Street markets Other Difficult to answer/no answer % 7% 7% % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 65

66 Khmelnytskyi How would you rate the quality of each of the following services and/or public goods that are available in your city? Excellent Good Average Bad Terrible Difficult to answer Street markets Public parks and gardens Heating Culture premises Sports facilities Water supply Universities, technical institutes, colleges Schools Trash collection Street lighting Kindergartens Sidewalks Sewage Public transportation Yards and areas near buildings Police activities Environment Industrial zones /Industrial development Roads Parking Accessibility for persons with disabilities Medical institutions % % % % % 3 10% < % 4 < % % < % 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 66

67 Khmelnytskyi In the past two years, have you had to interact with your city government offices (mayoral office, executive committee, city council, rayon council, rayon administration, communal enterprises)? 7 Yes No Difficult to answer/no answer 2 67

68 Khmelnytskyi Over the past two years, have you interacted with your city government offices (mayoral office, executive committee, city council, rayon council, rayon administration, communal enterprises)? If so, how would you rate the service you received from the local authorities? (Respondents who answered yes: N=274) Excellent Good Average Bad Terrible Difficult to answer Manner in which office staff treated you % Waiting time Quality of service received % Level of office staff s knowledge on the subject matter 1 30% 3 Simplicity and clarity of the decisions and/or advice provided by the officials % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 68

69 Khmelnytskyi Why haven t you interacted with your city government officials? (Respondents who have not interacted with city government offices: N=916) I didn t have reason to interact with them I don t trust my city authorities to objectively solve my problems My city authorities don t have skills and knowledge to solve my problems Don t know/no answer 9 69

70 Khmelnytskyi Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of your mayor and city council? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer June Mayor September % December June City Council September % 17% December % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 70

71 Khmelnytskyi How would you rate the accessibility of information about each of the following? Easily accessible Somewhat accessible Somewhat inaccessible Inaccessible Difficult to answer Mayor June 2017 September % 10% December City council June 2017 September 2017 December % 27% 2 2 Communal enterprises June % 2 2 September % 4 2 December % % 2 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 71

72 Khmelnytskyi If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, whom would you vote for? (All respondents) Fatherland Party (Batkivshchyna) Svoboda Radical Party Civic Position Bloc Petro Poroshenko "Solidarnist" Movement of New Forces Self-Reliance Party (Samopomich) OSNOVA For Life Party (Za Zhyttia) Justice Party Agrarian Party of Ukraine People's Front Left Opposition Strong Ukraine UKROP Opposition Bloc Political party 5.10 People s Movement of Ukraine National Movement of D.Yarosh Other I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know 1 37% 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 72

73 Khmelnytskyi If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, for whom would you vote? (Likely voters: N=978) Fatherland Party (Batkivshchyna) Svoboda Radical Party Civic Position Bloc Petro Poroshenko "Solidarnist" Movement of New Forces Self-Reliance Party (Samopomich) OSNOVA For Life Party (Za Zhyttia) Justice Party Agrarian Party of Ukraine People's Front Left Opposition Strong Ukraine UKROP Opposition Bloc Political party 5.10 National Movement of D.Yarosh People s Movement of Ukraine Other Difficult to answer/don t know 1 4 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 73

74 Khmelnytskyi How concerned are you about the safety of roads in Ukraine? 1 Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not very concerned Not concerned at all Difficult to answer/no answer 80% 74

75 Oversample: Mariupol (N=1,200) November 15 December 14, 2017

76 Mariupol Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine and in your city are going in the right direction or wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer June % 77% 1 Ukraine September 2017 December June Mariupol September December % 3 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 76

77 Mariupol Are you proud of your city? Definitely yes Somewhat Not very Definitely no Difficult to answer June % September December % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 77

78 Mariupol If Ukraine could enter only one international economic union, which of the following should it be? European Union (EU) Customs Union of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan Other Difficult to answer June % 37% September % 3 December % 2 3 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote? Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO Would not vote Difficult to answer June September % 1 2 December % % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 78

79 Mariupol In your opinion, which areas should be a top priority for your municipal authorities? Housing and communal services Medical institutions Environment Roads Social protection Public transportation Industrial areas/industrial development Security Water supply Pavement Yards and areas near buildings Increasing government transparency and openness Street lighting Kindergartens Schools Accessibility for persons with disabilities Sports facilities Establishing mechanisms for citizens to participate in local decision-making Heating Public parks and gardens Street markets Administrative services provision Land issues Sewage Garbage collection Parking Cultural premises Other Difficult to answer/no answer 1 1 7% < < < < % 47% 5 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 79

80 Mariupol How would you rate the quality of each of the following services and/or public goods that are available in your city? Excellent Good Average Bad Terrible Difficult to answer Trash collection Public parks and gardens Street markets Heating Sewage Street lighting Public transportation Water supply Yards and areas near buildings Schools Universities, technical institutes, colleges Kindergartens Culture premises Sports facilities Police activities Sidewalks Roads Medical institutions Industrial zones /Industrial development Parking Accessibility for persons with disabilities Environment 7% 10% % % % % 57% % % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % % 4 2 < < < % % 4 37% 40% 2 2 < < 1 10% <

81 Mariupol In the past two years, have you had to interact with your city government offices (mayoral office, executive committee, city council, rayon council, rayon administration, communal enterprises)? 7 Yes No Difficult to answer/no answer 2 81

82 Mariupol Over the past two years, have you interacted with your city government offices (mayoral office, executive committee, city council, rayon council, rayon administration, communal enterprises)? If so, how would you rate the service you received from the local authorities? (Respondents who answered yes: N=291) Excellent Good Average Bad Terrible Difficult to answer Manner in which office staff treated you 3 4 Quality of service received Simplicity and clarity of the decisions and/or advice provided by the officials were Level of office staff s knowledge on the subject matter 3 47% 1 Waiting time % 1 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 82

83 Mariupol Why haven t you interacted with your city government officials? (Respondents who have not interacted with city government offices: N=901) I didn t have reason to interact with them I don t trust my city authorities to objectively solve my problems My city authorities don t have the skills and knowledge to solve my problems Don t know/no answer 8 83

84 Mariupol Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of your mayor and city council? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer/no answer June Mayor September % 2 December June City Council September December % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 84

85 Mariupol How would you rate the accessibility of information about each of the following? Easily accessible Somewhat accessible Somewhat inaccessible Inaccessible Difficult to answer Mayor June 2017 September % 1 37% % December % 3 City council June 2017 September % 3 10% 3 37% December Communal enterprises June % 3 September 2017 December % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 85

86 Mariupol If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, whom would you vote for? (All respondents) For Life Party (Za Zhyttia) Opposition Bloc 17% 1 Fatherland Party (Batkivshchyna) OSNOVA Bloc Petro Poroshenko "Solidarnist" Radical Party Self-Reliance Party (Samopomich) Civic Position Left Opposition Other I would not vote 1 Difficult to answer/don t know 3 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 86

87 Mariupol If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, for whom would you vote? (Likely voters: N=983) For Life Party (Za Zhyttia) Opposition Bloc 1 2 Fatherland Party (Batkivshchyna) OSNOVA Bloc Petro Poroshenko "Solidarnist" Radical Party Self-Reliance (Samopomich) Civic Position Left Opposition Nash Krai Other Difficult to answer/ Don t know 47% 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 87

88 Mariupol How concerned are you about the safety of roads in Ukraine? Very concerned 2 Somewhat concerned Not very concerned 6 Not concerned at all Difficult to answer/no answer 88

89 Oversample: Mykolaiv (N=1,200) November 15 December 14, 2017

90 Mykolaiv Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine and your city are going in the right direction or wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer June Ukraine September December Mykolaiv June 2017 September % December % 4 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 90

91 Mykolaiv Are you proud of your city? Definitely yes Somewhat yes Not very Definitely no Difficult to answer June % September % 2 7% December % 3 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 91

92 Mykolaiv If Ukraine could enter only one international economic union, which of the following should it be? European Union (EU) Customs Union of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan Other Difficult to answer June % September December % % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote? Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO Would not vote Difficult to answer June % 4 1 September December % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 92

93 Mykolaiv In your opinion, which areas should be a top priority for your municipal authorities? Industrial areas/industrial development Housing and communal services Roads Medical institutions Yards and areas around buildings Social protection Security Government transparency and openness Pavement Garbage collection Public transportation Establishing mechanisms for citizens to participate in decision-making Administrative services provision Street markets Kindergartens Sewage Public parks and gardens Accessibility for persons with disabilities Parking Street lighting Environment Sports facilities Heating Schools Water supply Land issues Cultural premises Other Difficult to answer/no answer 7% 7% 7% % 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 93

94 Mykolaiv How would you rate the quality of each of the following services and/or public goods that are available in your city? Excellent Good Average Bad Terrible Difficult to answer Street markets Water supply Schools Public transportation Universities, technical institutes, colleges Trash collection Kindergartens Street lighting Cultural premises Public parks and gardens Sport facilities Sewage Sidewalks Police activities Heating Environment Parking Yards and areas near buildings Medical institutions Roads Accessibility for persons with disabilities Industrial zones /Industrial development % % % % 1 10% % 47% % < < < < < 1 < < 1 17% < < 2 1 < 17% % < % 3 17% 5 2 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 94

95 Mykolaiv In the past two years, have you had to interact with your city government offices (mayoral office, executive committee, city council, rayon council, rayon administration, communal enterprises)? 8 Yes No Difficult to answer/no answer 1 95

96 Mykolaiv Over the past two years, have you interacted with your city government offices (mayoral office, executive committee, city council, rayon council, rayon administration, communal enterprises)? If so, how would you rate the service you received from the local authorities? (Respondents who answered yes: N=178) Excellent Good Average Bad Terrible Difficult to answer Manner in which office staff treated you 7% Simplcity and clarity of the decisions and/or advice provided by the officials were 7% Level of office staff s knowledge on the subject matter Quality of service received 2 30% 2 Waiting time 1 50% 2 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 96

97 Mykolaiv Why haven t you interacted with your city government officials? (Respondents who have not interacted with city government offices: N=1,015) I didn t have reason to interact with them I don t trust my city authorities to objectively solve my problems My city authorities don t have the skills and knowledge to solve my problems Don t know/no answer 8 97

98 Have you heard about the decision of the Mykolaiv city council to dismiss Mayor of Mykolaiv Oleksandr Senkevych on October 5, 2017? Mykolaiv Yes No Difficult to answer/no answer 9 98

99 Mykolaiv Do you support the decision of the Mykolaiv city council to dismiss Mayor of Mykolaiv Oleksandr Senkevych? (Respondents who have heard about the decision to dismiss Mayor Oleksandr Senkevych: N=1,102) Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat do not support Do not support at all Difficult to answer/no answer Total 1 17% 17% 2 2 Disaggregation by Age: % % % 17%

100 Mykolaiv Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of your mayor* and city council? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer June Mayor September December % June % % City Council September 2017 December % 2 30% % 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% *Due to the decision by the city council to dismiss Mayor Oleksandr Senkevych on October 5, 2017, this question was directed towards Mykolaiv s executive mayor, Tetiana Kazakova. 100

101 Mykolaiv How would you rate the accessibility of information about each of the following? Easily accessible Somewhat accessible Somewhat inaccessible Inaccessible Difficult to answer June Mayor September 2017 December % City council June 2017 September % December % 1 2 Communal enterprises June % September December % 17% 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 101

102 Mykolaiv If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, whom would you vote for? (All respondents) Za Zhyttia Opposition Bloc Batkivshchyna Samopomich BPP Solidarnist Radical Party of O. Lyashko Civic Position Svoboda Left Opposition Movement of New Forces OSNOVA Justice Party Other 10% I would not vote 2 Difficult to answer/don t know 3 0% 10% 30% 40% 102

103 Mykolaiv If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, for whom would you vote? (Likely voters: N=932) For Life Party (Za Zhyttia) Opposition Bloc 1 10% Fatherland Party (Batkivshchyna) Self-Reliance (Samopomich) Bloc Petro Poroshenko "Solidarnist" Radical Party Civic Position Svoboda Left Opposition Movement of New Forces OSNOVA Justice Party Agrarian Party of Ukraine People's Front Other 1 Difficult to answer/don t know 4 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 103

104 < Mykolaiv How concerned are you about the safety of roads in Ukraine? Very concerned 2 Somewhat concerned Not very concerned Not concerned at all 67% Difficult to answer/no answer 104

105 Demographics

106 GENDER AGE LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME EDUCATION OCCUPATION Males Females Ukrainian Russian Both Ukrainian and Russian equally Primary/Incomplete secondary General secondary Vocational secondary Higher/Incomplete higher Worker Farmer/Peasant White collar Higher or medium level executive Pensioner (not working) Student Housewife Unemployed Self-employed/Entrepreneur Other Demographics Nationwide % 2 40% 37% 27% 2 7% 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 106

107 Demographics Nationwide Orthodox (Kyiv Patriarchate) 3 Orthodox (Moscow Patriarchate) Greek Catholic 7% RELIGION Catholic Protestant Judaism Muslim Atheist 0% < I believe in God, but do not belong to any religion 2 Other Don t know/no answer TYPE OF SETTLE- MENT City Village 30% 70% West 2 REGIONS Center South 2 3 East 2 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 107

108 Demographics Nationwide We need to save money for food 1 We have enough money for food, but we need to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes 3 We have enough money for food and necessary clothing and shoes, but we need to save or borrow money for other purchases like a good suit, a mobile phone, or a vacuum cleaner 3 FAMILY FINANCES We have enough money for food, clothing, shoes, and other purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchasing more expensive things (e.g. appliances) 1 We have enough money for food, clothes, shoes, and expensive purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchases like a car or an apartment I can buy anything at any time < Difficult to answer 0% 10% 30% 40% 108

109 GENDER AGE LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME EDUCATION OCCUPATION Male Female Ukrainian Russian Both Ukrainian and Russian equally Other Primary/Incomplete secondary General secondary Vocational secondary Higher/Incomplete higher Worker Farmer/Peasant White collar Higher or medium level executive Pensioner (not working) Student Housewife Unemployed Self-employed/Entrepreneur Other Demographics Dnipro % 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 109

110 Demographics Dnipro Ukrainian 8 NATIONALITY Russian Other Difficult to answer 7% Orthodox (Kyiv Patriarchate) 6 Orthodox (Moscow Patriarchate) RELIGION Atheist I believe in God, but do not belong to any religion 2 Other Do not know/no answer 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110

111 Demographics Dnipro We need to save money for food 1 We have enough money for food, but we need to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes 3 FINANCIAL SITUATION OF THE FAMILY We have enough money for food and necessary clothing and shoes, but we need to save or borrow money for other purchases like a good suit, a mobile phone, or a vacuum cleaner We have enough money for food, clothing, shoes, and other purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchasing more expensive things (e.g. appliances) We have enough money for food, clothes, shoes, and expensive purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchases like a car or an apartment 17% 3 I can buy anything at any time < Difficult to answer 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 111

112 GENDER AGE LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME EDUCATION OCCUPATION Male Female Ukrainian Russian Both Ukrainian and Russian equally Other Primary/Incomplete secondary General secondary Vocational secondary Higher/Incomplete higher Worker White collar Higher or medium level executive Pensioner (not working) Student Housewife Unemployed Self-employed/Entrepreneur Other Demographics Khmelnytskyi % 3 80% % 1 2 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 112

113 Demographics Khmelnytskyi NATIONALITY Ukrainian Russian Other 9 Orthodox (Kyiv Patriarchate) 5 Orthodox (Moscow Patriarchate) 1 Greek Catholic RELIGION Catholic Protestant Atheist I believe in God, but do not belong to any religion 1 Other Do not know/no answer 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 113

114 Demographics Khmelnytskyi We need to save money for food We have enough money for food, but we need to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes 27% FINANCIAL SITUATION OF THE FAMILY We have enough money for food and necessary clothing and shoes, but we need to save or borrow money for other purchases like a good suit, a mobile phone, or a vacuum cleaner We have enough money for food, clothing, shoes, and other purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchasing more expensive things (e.g. appliances) We have enough money for food, clothes, shoes, and expensive purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchases like a car or an apartment 1 3 I can buy anything at any time < Difficult to answer 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 114

115 GENDER AGE LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME EDUCATION Occupation Demographics Mariupol Male 4 Female Ukrainian Russian 90% Both Ukrainian and Russian equally Other Primary/Incomplete secondary General secondary 17% Vocational secondary 4 Higher/Incomplete higher 3 Worker 2 Farmer/Peasant < White collar 1 Higher or medium level executive Pensioner (not working) 3 Student Housewife Unemployed Self-employed/Entrepreneur Other < 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 115

116 Demographics Mariupol Ukrainian 6 NATIONALITY Russian Other 2 Difficult to answer Orthodox (Kyiv Patriarchate) 2 Orthodox (Moscow Patriarchate) 1 Greek Catholic < RELIGION Atheist I believe in God, but do not belong to any religion 4 Other Do not know/no answer 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 116

117 Demographics Mariupol We need to save money for food 3 We have enough money for food, but we need to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes 3 FINANCIAL SITUATION OF THE FAMILY We have enough money for food and necessary clothing and shoes, but we need to save or borrow money for other purchases like a good suit, a mobile phone, or a vacuum cleaner We have enough money for food, clothing, shoes, and other purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchasing more expensive things (e.g. appliances) We have enough money for food, clothes, shoes, and expensive purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchases like a car or an apartment < 2 Difficult to answer < 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 117

118 GENDER AGE LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME EDUCATION OCCUPATION Demographics Mykolaiv Male 4 Female Ukrainian Russian 67% Both Ukrainian and Russian equally 2 Other Primary/Incomplete secondary General secondary 2 Vocational secondary Higher/Incomplete higher 3 3 Worker White collar 1 Higher or medium level executive Pensioner (not working) 3 Student Housewife Unemployed Self-employed/Entrepreneur Other 0% 40% 60% 80% 118

119 Demographics Mykolaiv Ukrainian 8 NATIONALITY Russian 1 Other Orthodox (Kyiv Patriarchate) 3 Orthodox (Moscow Patriarchate) RELIGION Atheist I believe in God, but do not belong to any religion < 1 4 Other Do not know/no answer 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 119

120 Demographics Mykolaiv We need to save money for food 2 We have enough money for food, but we need to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes 40% FINANCIAL SITUATION OF THE FAMILY We have enough money for food and necessary clothing and shoes, but we need to save or borrow money for other purchases like a good suit, a mobile phone, or a vacuum cleaner We have enough money for food, clothing, shoes, and other purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchasing more expensive things (e.g. appliances) We have enough money for food, clothes, shoes, and expensive purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchases like a car or an apartment 2 I can buy anything at any time < Difficult to answer 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 120

121 Center for Insights in Survey Research