March Franklin & Marshall. College Poll SUMMARY OF FINDINGS. Prepared by: Center for Opinion Research. Floyd Institute for Public Policy

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1 For immediate release March 28, 2019 March 2019 Franklin & Marshall College Poll SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Prepared by: Center for Opinion Research Floyd Institute for Public Policy Franklin & Marshall College

2 Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS... 2 KEY FINDINGS... 3 VOTER SENTIMENT... 4 STATE ISSUES... 5 PRESIDENT TRUMP: JOB PERFORMANCE... 7 METHODOLOGY ATTACHMENT A ATTACHMENT A ATTACHMENT A ATTACHMENT A ATTACHMENT A ATTACHMENT A-6... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. MARGINAL FREQUENCY REPORT

3 Key Findings The March 2019 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds that Pennsylvania voters are generally satisfied with the direction of the state and their personal finances. Half (49%) of the state s registered voters believe the state is headed in the right direction. Most voters report they are better off (32%) or the same (52%) financially compared to last year and most expect to be better off (29%) or the same (54%) financially next year. Pennsylvanians show considerable unanimity on a number of policy topics. A majority (59%) of state voters supports legalizing marijuana. Fewer than one in four (22%) registered voters supported legalized marijuana in May 2006 when the question was first asked in a Franklin & Marshall College Poll. Nearly seven in ten registered voters strongly (47%) or somewhat (22%) favors an increase in the state s minimum wage from $7.25 to $12 per hour. Most registered voters believe that climate change is currently causing problems (67%) and most (68%) think the state should do more to address those problems. There is less unanimity about adding nuclear power to the list of renewable resources from which electricity companies must buy power: half (50%) favor the proposal and half either oppose it or aren t sure. About one in three (34%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believes President Trump is doing an excellent or good job as president, which is consistent with recent Franklin & Marshall College Polls. President Trump s current rating is similar to President Obama s rating in Pennsylvania at a similar point in his Presidency. One in three (36%) registered voters believes President Trump has done a good enough job to deserve re-election, while three in five (61%) voters say it is time for a change. 3

4 Voter Sentiment Half (49%) of the state s registered voters believe the state is headed in the right direction. As Figure 1 shows, more registered voters in the state have been expressing positive views about the direction of the state during the last year than had done so in the prior decade. More Democrats (64%) than independents (46%) or Republicans (32%) believe the state is headed in the right direction. This optimism likely comes from a belief that the state is not confronting any single, intractable problem and that most voters feel positively about their personal finances. Registered voters mention unemployment and the economy (15%), taxes (14%), education (12%), government and politicians (9%), crime (9%), and an assortment of other issues as being the most important problems facing the state. Most voters report they are better off (32%) or the same (52%) financially compared to last year and most expect to be better off (29%) or the same (54%) financially next year. Financial optimism has been relatively consistent for several years. Figure 1: 4

5 State Issues The March 2019 Franklin & Marshall College Poll asked about a number of state policy issues. The paragraphs that follow describe registered voters general reactions to these issues and a brief description of some of the political and demographic differences related to them. Detailed tables that show support among political and demographic groups are included in the attachments. Legalized Marijuana A majority (59%) of state voters supports legalizing marijuana. Fewer than one in four (22%) registered voters supported legalized marijuana in May 2006 when the question was first asked in a Franklin & Marshall College Poll. More independents (77%) and Democrats (71%) support marijuana legalization than Republicans (39%). Support for marijuana legalization tends to decline with age and increase with more education, although a majority of college and non-college graduates supports legalization. Minimum Wage Nearly seven in ten registered voters strongly (47%) or somewhat (22%) favors an increase in the state s minimum wage from $7.25 to $12 per hour. Only two in five (44%) Republicans support increasing the state s minimum wage, which is much lower than among independents (74%) and Democrats (88%). There is widespread support for increasing the minimum wage among most demographic groups. Climate Change and Nuclear Power Most registered voters believe that climate change is currently causing problems (67%) and most (68%) think the state should do more to address those problems. Most Democrats (88%) and independents (80%) believe the state should do more to address climate change while only two in five (38%) Republicans do. This may reflect the fact that fewer Republicans (41%) than Democrats 5

6 (85%) and independents (78%) believe that climate change is currently causing problems. A majority in most demographic groups believe that climate change is currently causing problems. Two in three (68%) voters believe the state should pursue policies that prioritize renewable energy and one in two (55%) believes that nuclear energy should be one component of the state s long-term energy strategy. In this instance, Republicans (64%) and independents (61%) are more likely than Democrats (44%) to support including nuclear power as part of the state s long-term energy strategy. There are few demographic differences in attitudes about including nuclear energy as part of the state s long-term energy strategy, but one difference does stand out: more men (69%) than women (40%) support nuclear energy as a long-term strategy. Support for adding nuclear power to the list of renewable resources from which electricity companies must buy power is divided: half (50%) favor the proposal and half either oppose it or aren t sure. Here again Republicans and Democrats differ: Republicans (56%) and independents (55%) are more likely than Democrats (43%) to favor adding nuclear power to the list of renewable energy sources. Support for this initiative is higher among those over 35 years of age and higher among men (56%) than women (43%). 6

7 President Trump: Job Performance About one in three (34%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believes President Trump is doing an excellent or good job as president, which is consistent with recent Franklin & Marshall College Polls. Figure 2 compares President Trump s job ratings to President Obama s job ratings; President Trump s current rating is similar to President Obama s rating in Pennsylvania at a similar point in his Presidency. A majority of Republicans (66%) rate the President s performance positively, while fewer Democrats (9%) or Independents (25%) do so. Conservatives (71%) are more likely than moderates (25%) or liberals (2%) to give the President positive job approval ratings. 7

8 Figure 2: One in three (36%) registered voters believe President Trump has done a good enough job to deserve re-election and most (63%) of these respondents say they will vote for him no matter who runs against him. On the other hand, three in five (61%) voters say it is time for a change and four in five (80%) of these voters say they will vote against the president no matter who runs against him. Taken together, half (48%) of registered voters are firmly supporting a change and a quarter (23%) are firmly supporting no change, leaving another quarter who are still deciding. Not surprisingly, attitudes about re-electing the President are strongly associated with party and political 8

9 ideology, but the desire for change is also affected by ratings of personal finances even after accounting for political ideology (see Table 1). Table 1. 9

10 Methodology The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted March 18 24, The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs. The poll was designed and administered by the staff of the Center for Opinion Research. The data included in this release represent the responses of 540 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 254 Democrats, 216 Republicans, and 70 independents. The sample of registered voters was obtained from L2, formerly Labels & Lists. All sampled respondents were notified by letter about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent s preference. Survey results were weighted (age, gender, education, and party registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics as reported by the Pennsylvania Department of State and Pennsylvania exit polls. The sample error for this survey is +/- 5.5 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Nonresponse bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions. There are few notable differences between web and telephone respondents. Views about most key issues for both groups are similar, except the legalization of marijuana, where web respondents are more likely to be undecided than phone respondents. Web respondents are less likely than phone respondents to say Donald Trump has done a good enough job as president to 10

11 deserve re-election. Demographically, phone respondents tend to have less formal education than web respondents (see Figure 4). Figure 4: 11

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15 Attachment A-4 15

16 Attachment A-5 16

17 Attachment A-6 17

18 Marginal Frequency Report Responses may not total 100% due to rounding. REG. Some people are registered to vote, and many others are not. Are you currently registered to vote at your present address? Yes 100% No 0% RegPARTY. Are you currently registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or as something else? Republican 40% Democrat 47% Independent 11% Something else 2% Please let me know your opinion of some people involved in politics today. Is your opinion of [FILL name] favorable, unfavorable, undecided, or haven t you heard enough about [FILL name] to have an opinion? (rotated) Strongly favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Strongly unfavorable Undecided Do not know TOM WOLF Mar % 35% 16% 15% 3% 11% Oct % 26% 13% 19% 4% 7% Sep % 27% 14% 19% 4% 9% Aug % 28% 15% 21% 3% 13% Jun % 30% 14% 19% 5% 13% Mar % 31% 16% 16% 6% 12% Sep % 20% 8% 34% 12% 10% Feb % 29% 15% 19% 13% 11% Feb % 25% 16% 27% 9% 9% Oct % 23% 13% 20% 16% 13% Aug % 21% 9% 17% 18% 13% Jun % 23% 10% 17% 19% 11% Mar % 18% 11% 16% 22% 11% Oct % 20% 7% 18% 18% 16% Sep % 21% 9% 13% 18% 21% Aug % 19% 7% 10% 22% 24% Jun % 20% 5% 7% 20% 32% 18

19 Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Do not Undecided favorable favorable unfavorable unfavorable know DONALD TRUMP Mar % 14% 9% 52% 2% 1% Oct % 11% 6% 55% 2% 1% Sep % 14% 4% 55% 0% 1% Aug % 13% 5% 52% 3% 1% Jun % 14% 7% 51% 3% 0% Mar % 15% 11% 49% 2% 2% Sep % 22% 9% 36% 6% 6% Feb % 14% 6% 51% 6% 1% Oct % 12% 6% 56% 3% 1% Sep % 12% 6% 54% 6% 1% Aug % 14% 7% 51% 5% 1% Jul % 13% 5% 57% 5% 0% Mar % 14% 9% 56% 7% 1% Feb % 15% 11% 51% 10% 1% Rate_Gov. How would you rate the way that Tom Wolf is handling his job as Governor? Would you say he is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job as Governor? Excellent job Good job Only a fair job Poor job Don t know Mar % 40% 29% 13% 8% Oct % 40% 28% 16% 3% Sep % 38% 27% 18% 6% Aug % 38% 28% 20% 6% Jun % 36% 33% 16% 6% Mar % 37% 33% 16% 8% Sep % 34% 36% 19% 7% May % 36% 35% 17% 8% Feb % 34% 35% 19% 8% Feb % 27% 32% 29% 7% Jan % 28% 36% 26% 6% Oct % 30% 37% 21% 6% Aug % 32% 34% 17% 10% Jun % 31% 34% 16% 13% Mar % 31% 29% 14% 19% 19

20 RightDir All in all, do you think things in Pennsylvania are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? Headed in Right Direction Off on the Wrong Track Do not know Mar % 37% 15% Oct % 37% 11% Sep % 36% 14% Aug % 36% 18% Jun % 39% 16% Mar % 40% 15% Sep % 48% 16% May % 50% 19% Feb % 52% 13% Mar % 66% 10% Feb % 67% 12% Jan % 67% 12% Oct % 62% 12% Aug % 54% 13% Jun % 47% 17% Mar % 47% 15% Oct % 61% 11% Sep % 60% 11% Aug % 61% 13% Jun % 59% 11% Jan % 62% 13% Oct % 61% 13% Aug % 62% 12% May % 58% 13% Aug % 56% 13% Jun % 57% 13% Feb % 56% 13% Jan % 47% 15% Oct % 49% 13% Aug % 53% 13% Mar % 53% 10% Oct % 64% 9% Sep % 59% 10% Aug % 58% 12% May % 55% 10% Mar % 58% 10% 20

21 MIP_PA. What do you think is the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today? Mar Oct Sep Aug Jun Mar Sep May Feb Mar Feb Jan Oct Taxes 14% 14% 12% 10% 12% 15% 11% 12% 11% 7% 10% 9% 9% Education, school 12% 9% 11% 13% 7% 9% 11% 17% 16% 13% 12% 18% 16% Government, politicians 9% 14% 14% 16% 13% 16% 30% 22% 24% 45% 47% 38% 39% Crime, drugs, violence, guns 9% 7% 6% 6% 8% 10% 6% 5% 5% 1% 2% 3% 2% Economy, finances 9% 5% 6% 3% 9% 5% 7% 3% 3% 5% 4% 4% 4% Healthcare, insurance 7% 8% 4% 3% 5% 2% 4% 8% 4% 2% 1% 2% 2% Unemployment, personal finances 6% 12% 9% 14% 5% 12% 9% 8% 12% 13% 9% 8% 12% Roads, infrastructure, transportation 6% 5% 4% 5% 7% 3% 2% 4% 4% 2% 1% 2% 2% Environment 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% Energy issues, gas prices 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 0% 3% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% Immigration 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% Social issues 2% 0% 0% 2% 1% 6% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% Retaining, attracting businesses 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% Bipartisanship 1% 0% 2% 0% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Senior issues, social security 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% Racism 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Justice system, Lawyers 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Values, morals 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Daycare 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Civil liberties 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Personal illness, health problems 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Align with political views/platforms 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Welfare 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% Housing and real estate 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Transportation, availability 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Population loss, movement out of state 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Population, urban sprawl 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 4% 5% 4% 7% 3% 5% 2% 5% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% Do not know 10% 10% 14% 12% 14% 13% 5% 7% 6% 3% 5% 8% 6% 21

22 PRIORITY. State lawmakers are currently discussing many problems and issues. Which of the following issues do you think should be the top priority for state lawmakers to address? Should their top priority be (rotated responses) Mar 2019 Jun 2015 Mar 2015 Increasing state funding for public education 23% 30% 27% Reforming the state s tax system to reduce local property taxes 21% 25% 25% Improving and restoring the state's infrastructure system 18% Attracting, retaining, and supporting businesses 10% Reducing overall state spending 7% 15% 15% Increasing the state s minimum wage 5% 10% 8% Reforming the state's criminal justice system 5% Legalizing marijuana for recreational use 5% Reforming the way state legislative districts are drawn 4% Something else 3% 6% 6% Do not know 2% 2% 2% Legal_MJ. Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not? Yes No Do not know Mar % 34% 7% Sep % 31% 9% May % 37% 7% Jun % 54% 6% Jun % 57% 7% Jan % 58% 6% May % 54% 8% Feb % 55% 9% May % 60% 7% May % 72% 6% MinWage. During his budget address, Governor Wolf proposed raising the state's minimum wage. Do you favor or oppose raising the state s minimum wage from $7.25 to $12.00 per hour? Mar 2019 Feb 2017 Strongly Favor 47% 39% Somewhat Favor 22% 22% Somewhat Oppose 15% 15% Strongly Oppose 14% 22% Do not know 3% 2% 22

23 C1. Now I d like to ask you a few questions about the environment and energy in the state. Do you think the state of Pennsylvania should do more to address the problems associated with climate change, or not? Mar 2019 Mar 2018 Yes, definitely 56% 47% Yes, probably 12% 20% No, probably not 14% 14% No, not at all 17% 16% Do not know 2% 3% C2. Do you think climate change is causing problems now, do you think the problems created by climate change will not happen until sometime in the future, or do you think climate change will never create any serious problems? Mar 2019 Mar 2018 Causing problems now 67% 62% Problems will not happen until sometime in the future 14% 17% Will never create any serious problems 13% 12% Doesn t believe that climate change is happening (accepted if volunteered) 4% 5% Do not know 3% 4% C3. Have you personally experienced any problems that you think are related to climate change, or not? (Respondents who believe climate change is happening.) Mar 2019 Mar 2018 n=521 n=402 Yes 37% 39% No 58% 53% Do not know 6% 8% C4. Do you think it is more important for Pennsylvania to pursue energy policies that prioritize the availability of renewable energy such as solar and wind, or do you think it is more important for Pennsylvania to pursue energy policies that prioritize fossil fuel extraction from coal and natural gas? Mar 2019 Mar 2018 Prioritize availability of renewable energy 68% 69% Prioritize fossil fuel extraction from coal and natural gas 20% 18% Best value (cheapest) for consumers (accept if volunteered) 5% 7% Do not know 6% 6% 23

24 N1. Do you favor or oppose including nuclear energy as one part of the state s long-term energy strategy? Strongly Favor 25% Somewhat Favor 30% Somewhat Oppose 17% Strongly Oppose 15% Do not know 14% N2. The state legislature is currently considering ways to keep two of the state s five nuclear power plants from closing early. One proposal would add nuclear power to a current law that requires electricity companies to buy a certain amount of their power from sources that include solar, wind, hydropower and geothermal energy. Would you favor or oppose adding nuclear power to this law? Strongly Favor 18% Somewhat Favor 32% Somewhat Oppose 20% Strongly Oppose 17% Do not know 14% N3. Which of the following sources of energy do you think is the most environmentally friendly: coal, natural gas, nuclear energy? Natural gas 37% Nuclear energy 20% Coal 2% Other (volunteered) 35% Do not know 6% N4. Which of the following sources of energy do you think is the safest: coal, natural gas, nuclear energy? Natural gas 31% Nuclear energy 13% Coal 10% Other (volunteered) 35% Do not know 11% N5. How much of the state s electricity do you think comes from nuclear power? Less than 10% 9% Between 10 and 25% 23% Between 25 and 50% 16% More than 50% 4% Do not know 48% 24

25 N6. Is the following statement definitely true, probably true, probably false, or definitely false? Nuclear power plants are the state s largest source of carbon-free electricity. Definitely true 11% Probably true 43% Probably false 13% Definitely false 4% Do not know 29% RatePres. How would you rate the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Would you say he is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job as President? Excellent Job Good Job Only a Fair Job Poor Job Don t Know Mar % 16% 13% 53% 0% Oct % 14% 12% 52% 0% Sep % 19% 8% 55% 0% Aug % 20% 10% 52% 1% Jun % 18% 13% 52% 0% Mar % 17% 16% 54% 1% Sep % 16% 18% 53% 1% May % 24% 14% 49% 2% Feb % 19% 13% 54% 1% REPRES. Do you believe that Donald Trump has done a good enough job as President to deserve re-election, or do you believe it is time for a change? Has done a good enough job to deserve re-election 36% It is time for a change 61% Do not know 4% RE_FOR. Will you vote for President Trump no matter who runs against him, or not? n=192 Yes 63% No 23% Do not know 14% RE_AGAINST. Will you vote against President Trump no matter who runs against him, or not? n=326 Yes 80% No 15% Do not know 5% 25

26 RightDirUS. All in all, do you think things in the United States are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? Headed in Right Direction Off on the Wrong Track Do not know Mar % 65% 6% Oct % 61% 4% Sep % 60% 4% Feb % 66% 6% Oct % 58% 7% Sep % 57% 7% Aug % 61% 7% Jul % 57% 5% PrimNews What is your primary source for news? Mar Oct Sep Aug May Feb Oct Sep Aug Cable television, such as Fox, CNN, or MSNBC 27% 31% 30% 28% 28% 31% 29% 30% 28% Internet (other than social media)* 29% 21% 27% 25% 28% 28% 33% 32% 28% Network television, such as ABC, CBS, or NBC 21% 18% 20% 20% 15% 18% 19% 20% 21% Radio 8% 10% 6% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% Daily newspaper (such as the Inquirer or Post-Gazette ) 6% 9% 8% 7% 12% 8% 7% 8% 11% Social media (Twitter, Facebook, SnapChat, Instagram) 5% 7% 5% 5% 4% 3% Neighborhood newspaper 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2% Other 3% 3% 4% 9% 2% 3% 4% 2% 3% Do not know 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% *updated to exclude social media in February

27 CabNet Which cable network do you rely on the most? (cable television respondents) Mar 2019 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Aug-18 May-17 Feb-17 n=142 n=166 n=159 n=141 n=180 n=252 Fox News Channel 37% 52% 53% 43% 50% 44% MSNBC 27% 19% 16% 20% 18% 15% CNN 19% 24% 22% 22% 22% 29% CBS 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% CNBC 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ABC 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% NBC 1% 0% 1% 0% 3% -- HLN 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% PBS 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% Fox Business Network 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% One America News Network 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% None, nothing 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% Other 9% 6% 5% 7% 5% 10% Do not know 2% 0% 0% 3% 2% 2% FinToday. We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you and your family are better off, worse off, or about the same financially as you were a year ago? Better off Worse off About the same Do not know Mar % 17% 52% 0% Oct % 11% 61% 0% Sep % 13% 56% 1% Sep % 13% 69% 2% Feb % 19% 60% 1% Oct % 24% 53% 1% Sep % 21% 56% 1% Aug % 24% 52% 1% FinFut. Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now, you and your family will be better off financially than you are now, worse off, or about the same as you are now? Better off Worse off About the same Do not know Mar % 11% 54% 7% Oct % 11% 56% 6% Sep % 10% 55% 5% Feb % 15% 49% 8% Oct % 7% 49% 19% Sep % 7% 52% 16% Aug % 8% 53% 14% 27

28 DEMO I now have a final few questions for statistical purposes only. CNTY. Region of state (What is the name of the county you live in?) 39% Central 17% Southeast 11% Philadelphia 11% Northeast 9% Allegheny 7% Northwest 6% Southwest AGE. What was your age on your last birthday? 7% % % % % % 65 and older EDUC. What was the highest level of schooling you have completed? 2% Non high school graduate 21% High school graduate or GED 19% Some college 10% Associate s degree or technical degree 24% Bachelor s degree 24% Post graduate degree MAR. What is your current marital status? 59% Married 26% Single, Never Married 9% Divorced 5% Widow or widower 1% Separated 28

29 IDEO. Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative? Liberal Moderate Conservative Don t know Mar % 32% 33% 4% Oct % 36% 35% 0% Sep % 36% 31% 5% Aug % 33% 37% 5% Jun % 40% 33% 0% Mar % 40% 33% 0% May % 41% 30% 2% Feb % 42% 31% 0% Oct % 29% 34% 4% Sep % 28% 38% 4% Aug % 32% 33% 4% Jul % 30% 33% 4% Mar % 35% 37% 3% Feb % 33% 37% 3% Jan % 39% 36% 4% Oct % 38% 37% 4% Aug % 36% 40% 3% Jun % 35% 39% 4% Oct % 37% 36% 3% Sept % 36% 38% 5% Aug % 39% 36% 5% Jun % 36% 34% 5% Jan % 43% 28% 5% Oct % 39% 31% 6% Aug % 42% 33% 3% May % 39% 31% 6% Feb % 36% 35% 3% Oct % 39% 35% 5% Sep % 34% 35% 5% Aug % 40% 36% 4% Jun % 34% 36% 5% Feb % 39% 40% 4% Jan % 39% 36% 4% Oct % 39% 33% 8% Aug % 32% 37% 7% Mar % 33% 41% 10% Oct % 37% 39% 8% Sep % 34% 40% 10% Aug % 32% 40% 9% May % 32% 40% 9% Mar % 35% 40% 8% 29

30 PARTY. Regardless of how you are registered in politics, as of today, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? 19% Strong Republican 8% Republican 12% Lean Republican 7% Independent 18% Lean Democrat 6% Democrat 27% Strong Democrat 3% Don t know GUN. Are you a gun owner? 32% Yes 67% No GUN2. Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose creating more laws that regulate gun ownership? Strongly Somewhat favor favor Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don t know Mar % 14% 9% 26% 3% Oct % 19% 9% 24% 2% Sep % 20% 8% 23% 3% Aug % 17% 12% 22% 2% Jun % 15% 9% 20% 2% Mar % 20% 7% 19% 3% Sep % 23% 11% 24% 4% Feb % 19% 14% 23% 2% Oct % 27% 12% 21% 4% Sep % 21% 10% 23% 3% Aug % 16% 16% 26% 3% Jul % 18% 10% 25% 4% Mar % 17% 10% 28% 3% Feb % 16% 13% 29% 3% Jan % 15% 13% 29% 3% Oct % 13% 10% 31% 4% Aug % 14% 10% 32% 5% Jun % 13% 12% 33% 5% Oct % 12% 8% 37% 2% Sep % 14% 10% 32% 5% Aug % 14% 10% 31% 6% Jun % 12% 9% 31% 5% Jan % 12% 9% 32% 6% Oct % 16% 9% 24% 5% Aug % 12% 13% 33% 4% 30

31 LABR. Are you or is any member of your household a member of a LABOR UNION? 16% Yes 82% No 1% Do not know VET. Are you a military veteran? 12% Yes 88% No Hisp. Are you Hispanic or Latino, or not? 3% Yes 97% No RACE. Which of the following categories best describes your racial background? 90% White 11% Non-white REL. Do you consider yourself to be Protestant, Catholic, some other religion, or not affiliated with any religion? 31% Protestant 26% Catholic 16% Some other religion 26% Not affiliated with any religion 1% Do not know BAC. Do you consider yourself to be a born-again Christian or fundamentalist, or not? 23% Yes 76% No 1% Don t know 31

32 ABORT. Do you think that abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances? Legal under any circumstances Legal under certain circumstances Illegal in all circumstances Don t know Mar % 57% 16% 1% Oct % 53% 12% 1% Sep % 51% 12% 2% Aug % 54% 15% 1% Jun % 56% 19% 2% Sep % 56% 22% 2% Aug % 61% 19% 3% May % 58% 19% 2% Mar % 56% 23% 2% Feb % 57% 22% 2% Jan % 50% 24% 3% Oct % 54% 23% 3% Aug % 54% 23% 2% Jun % 58% 22% 2% Aug % 56% 21% 1% Jun % 58% 20% 1% Feb % 53% 26% 1% NUMC. How many children under 18 years of age currently live in your household? 73% None 10% One 16% 2-3 1% 4-5 0% 6 or more WORK. Are you currently working fulltime, part-time, going to school, keeping house or something else? 50% Full-time 28% Retired 10% Part-time 3% Disabled 4% Something else 3% Going to school 1% Unemployed 32

33 INCOME. And, just for statistical purposes, we need to know if your total family income is above or below $50,000 per year? 9% Under $25,000 13% $25-$35,000 11% $35-50,000 20% $50-75,000 13% $75-100,000 29% Over $100,000 5% Don t know DONE. Sex of respondent: 48% Male 52% Female 33