Public Opinion in Ukraine 2014

Transcription

1 Public Opinion in Ukraine 2014 F i n d i n g s f r o m t h e I F E S s u r v e y i n U k r a i n e F i e l d w o r k c o n d u c t e d f r o m A p r i l 8-1 5, S a m p l e s i z e, n = F u n d i n g p r o v i d e d b y t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s A g e n c y f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t ( U S A I D )

2 Methodological Details Sample size: 1respondents representing the voting-age population in Ukraine (18 years+). Margin of error: ±2.2% within a 95% confidence interval. Sample area coverage: All the administrative divisions of Ukraine; observations were allocated proportionately at the national level with an over-sample of observations in Kyiv. Fieldwork dates: April 8-15, 2014 Survey firm: IFES contracted with the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) to conduct fieldwork and data processing for the survey. Funding: Weights: The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) provided funding for this survey. Data was weighted by age, region and gender to bring the realized sample in line with target population parameters in order to be nationally representative of the adult (18+) population of Ukraine.

3 Unity in Ukraine 5% 7% 5% 6% 5% 3% 2% 4% 4% 5% 6% 5% 22% 35% 33% 35% 30% 46% 47% Neither Completely Divided 38% 29% 43% 39% 34% Somewhat Divided Somewhat United Completely United 17% 22% 15% 4% 9% 17% 10% <0.5% 10% 2% 2% 4% Ukraine North + Kyiv Center South East West Please tell me how you would characterize the current situation in Ukraine with regard to the unity of division of the country? Do you think Ukraine is currently (n=2,039)

4 Stability of Current Situation in Ukraine 2% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 74% 67% 80% 71% 78% 70% 24% 23% 20% 24% 19% 13% 3% 4% 2% 5% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% Ukraine North + Kyiv Center South East West Very Stable Somewhat Stable Somewhat Chaotic Very Chaotic And how would you characterize the current situation in Ukraine in terms of stability? Do you think the current situation in Ukraine is (n=2,039)

5 Level of Control Exercised by Ukrainian Government 6% 6% 6% 13% 7% 6% 5% 10% 27% 27% 8% 42% 45% 38% 55% 5% 56% 25% 37% 21% 26% 25% 27% 14% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% Ukraine North + Kyiv Center South East West Full Control Significant Control, but Not Full Not in Much Control No Control at All How much control do you think the current Ukrainian government exercises in the country? (n=2,039)

6 Government of Prime Minister Yatseniuk 15% 17% 17% 21% 18% 21% 24% 15% 18% Strongly Disagree 31% 26% 26% Somewhat Disagree Somewhat Agree Strongly Agree 9% 26% 18% The government is carrying our its responsibility in a transparent manner The Yatseniuk government is the legitimate government of Ukraine The government represents all regions and people of Ukraine Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statements about the current government led by Prime Minister Yatseniuk? (n=2,039)

7 Legitimacy of Yatseniuk Government (in the East) Kharkiv East 12% 7% 19% 36% 18% 14% 19% 34% 17% 22% Donetsk 3% 8% 9% 28% 52% 17% 31% Luhansk 4% 28% 20% Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree

8 Does Government Represent All Ukraine? (in the East) Who does the government represent (n=526): Western Ukraine (51%) Oligarchs (41%) Maidan (20%) Nationalists (18%) Kyiv (16%) Central Ukraine (14%) Radicals/Fascists (13%) Donetsk 8% 56% Kharkiv 18% 44% 1% 27% 5% 21% 12% 8% East 4% 18% 14% 23% 41% Luhansk 3% 8% 9% 23% 57% Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree If Presidential election were held today, in your opinion would they be: (n=2,040)

9 Likelihood of Voting in Presidential Election 3% 2% 1% 3% 5% 5% 5% 6% 1% 5% 3% 7% 5% 2% 5% 12% 16% 4% 8% 5% 8% 26% 31% 6% 25% 25% 27% 78% 63% 56% 57% 50% 41% 1% 3% Definitely Will Not Vote Very Unlikely Not Too Likely Somewhat Likely Very Likely Ukraine North + Kyiv Center South East West How likely are you to vote in the May 25 presidential elections? (n=2,039)

10 Presidential Election Preference among Likely Voters Olha Bohomolets 3% 6% Anatoliy Gritsenko 3% Mikhailo Dobkin 3% Oleh Liashko 4% Others 3% Not Sure, 26% Petro Poroshenko 35% Serhiy Tihipko 5% Petro Symonenko 2% Yuliya Tymoshenko 10% If the presidential elections were held today, which declared candidate would you vote for?

11 Perceived Integrity of Presidential Election 17% 23% 13% 19% 18% 12% 4% 13% 8% 18% 20% 21% 22% Not free and fair at all 24% 39% 18% 43% 45% 26% 33% 29% 27% 53% So flawed would doubt accuracy of results Flawed but reasonably free and fair Completely free and fair 12% 7% 8% 4% 5% 8% UKRAINE North + Kyiv Center South East West How likely are you to vote in the May 25 presidential elections? (n=2,039)

12 Experiences with Corruption in Ukraine 59% 93% 89% 90% 79% 92% 88% 41% 7% 11% 11% 21% 7% 12% Police officer asked for a bribe (n=1353) Pay a bribe to avoid a traffic citation (n=1,303) Pay money above that required by law to local government to process a document (n=1,383) Pay a bribe at school (n=763) Pay a bribe to the courts (n=517) Yes No Pay a bribe in order to be seen in a hospital or a clinic (n=1,431) Pay a bribe at work (n=1,044) Now we want to talk about your experience with things that happen in everyday life. In the last twelve months have you

13 Corruption in Ukraine Do you agree or disagree with this statement: Ukrainians consider corruption as a fact of life.? (n=2,039) Do you think that given the way things are in Ukraine, sometimes paying a bribe is justified? (n=2,039) No, not at all 13% 14% Yes, to a great extent 21% 15% Yes 28% No, to a very limited extent 18% Yes, to some extent 35% No 57%

14 What Can be Done about Corruption? Survey Do you think it is possible for ordinary people to live a life in Ukraine without corruption or bribery? [If Yes] What actions or policies do you think can be taken by the government to achieve this? No (26%) Don t know (29%) Yes Strict punishment for corruption (29%) More transparency (26%) Change those in power to those who will fight corruption (10%) Changes in legislation (10%) Change people s attitudes toward corruption (9%) Ban corruption officials from public office (7%) Better salaries for public officials (5%) Other (9%) Focus Groups: - Better salaries - Sufficient legislation - Independent authority to pursue corruption - Public information/socialization - Punishment for public officials, especially higher levels - Several mentions of examples set by Georgia (electronic records) and Belarus (strict punishments) - People will not stop paying bribes because it is necessary, and they need to see some action by the government to show that it is serious

15 Values Most Closely Associated with Ukrainian Way of Life Both 9% Neither 16% 17% Western 25% Russian 33% Differences by Region East 51R 9W 11B North 25R 25W 6B Center 37R 26W 6B South 44R 12W 14B West 7R 53W 18B When you think of the Ukrainian way of life, do you associate it more closely with Western values or with Russian values? (n=2,039)

16 Values Ukraine Shares with Russia/West What values does Ukraine share with the West? (n=499) What values does Ukraine share with Russia? (n=675) Rights and freedoms 28% History, traditions 46% Democracy 27% Culture 23% Rule of law 14% Ethnic heritage 18% Respectful of people Economic devp. Social protection, services Stability Respect for traditions Independent, patriotic Peaceful Other 14% 12% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 13% 16% Religion, morality Language Same outlooks, interests Kinship, friendship Language Economic relationships Other 15% 12% 9% 8% 12% 5% 6% 11%

17 Opinions on the European Union Treats Ukraine with respect 59% 14% 27% Promotes democracy in Ukraine 58% 16% 26% Tries to impose its culture on other countries 30% 19% 51% Has a culture and values that Ukraine should aspire to 61% 17% 22% Interferes in the affairs of other nations for its own economic benefit 40% 19% 41% Agree Disagree I ll read you several statements, and you tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with each. To what extent to you agree or disagree that the EU?

18 Opinions on Russia Treats Ukraine with respect 21% 10% 69% Promotes democracy in Ukraine 16% 13% 71% Tries to impose its culture on other countries 53% 15% 33% Has a culture and values that Ukraine should aspire to 30% 19% 51% Interferes in the affairs of other nations for its own economic benefit 71% 10% 24% Agree Disagree I ll read you several statements, and you tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with each. To what extent to you agree or disagree that Russia?

19 Future Orientation of Ukraine, 5% West Eur. (82%), Rus. (2%), Both (9%) Center - Eur. (59%), Rus. (4%), Both (17%) Both, 21% Neither, 9% Europe, 44% North - Eur. (50%), Rus. (8%), Both (22%) East - Eur. (16%), Rus. (46%), Both (26%) South - Eur. (27%), Rus. (24%), Both (28%) Russia, 21% Do you think that Ukraine would be better off if it had closer economic and political relations with Europe or Russia? (n=2,039)

20 Opinions on Discrimination against Russian Language in Ukraine 6% 8% 63% 64% Strongly Disagree Somewhat Disagree Somewhat Agree 19% 17% Strongly Agree 9% 9% 3% 2% The Russian language is discriminated against in Ukraine Some government services are not provided for Russian speakers in Ukraine (e.g. schools, public service jobs, etc.) Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statements: (n=2,039)

21 Status of Russian Language in Ukraine 4% 5% 5% 4% 2% 4% 12% 6% 9% 22% 20% 21% 23% 34% 50% 35% 40% 27% 47% 24% 11% 20% 27% 23% 19% 36% 41% 19% 9% UKRAINE North + Kyiv Center South East West Russian should have no offical status in Ukraine Russian should not be recognized as an official language, but the state should make Russian language services available Russian should be recognized as an official regional language Russian should have the status of an official language A lot of discussion has been given to the status of Russian as a language in Ukraine. Which of the following do you think is the appropriate status of the Russian language in Ukraine? (n=2,039)

22 Ukrainian Nationalism 20% Strongly Disagree Somewhat Disagree Somewhat Agree Strongly Agree 27% 21% 17% Agree/Disagree East: 57/23 South: 50/33 Center: 11/61 North: 26/56 West: 8/79 17% Ukrainian nationalism represented by figures like Bandera is a dangerous historical phenomena presenting a threat to non-ethnic Ukrainians. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statements: (n=2,039)

23 Opinion on Whether Current Divisions in Ukraine will be Overcome Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: Although recent events have brought out divisions between different groups of people in Ukraine, we all still live in one country and will be able to repair our divisions in the long run. (n=2,039) 11% 18% 15% 20% 17% 21% 3% <0.5% 3% 1% 5% 5% 9% 1% 6% 42% 9% 35% 33% 35% 36% 34% 39% 41% 47% 38% 30% 45% Ukraine North + Kyiv Center South East West Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree

24 Best Type of Governance for Ukraine, 19% A system in which national government makes most decisions on cultural, political, and economic issues, and regional government do not have much authority, 16% A system in which regional governments have substantial decision-making authority on cultural, political, and economic rights, 65% Which of these two kinds of system of government do you think is best for Ukraine:? (n=2,039)

25 Opinions on More Powers for Oblast and Resolution of Differences There has been recent discussion of changing the political system in Ukraine to one in which each oblast government would have more control over decision-making on important cultural, political, and economic issues within the oblast. Do you agree or disagree with this approach (n=2,039) Do you think this system of government can help to resolve differences between different regions of Ukraine? (n=2,039) Not At All 1% Mostly Disagree 2% Somewhat Disagree 4% 21% Strongly Agree 32% Not Likely 6% 12% Yes, Definitely 25% Somewhat Agree 41% Yes, Probably 56%

26 Opinions on Level of Responsibility for Oblasts 20% 11% 10% 30% 29% 11% 10% 3% 2% 2% 2% 28% 31% 56% 55% 16% 2% 3% 36% 43% Strongly Disagree Somewhat Disagree Somewhat Agree Strongly Agree Language and cultural policies should be decided at the oblast level Oblast Head of Local Administration should be directly elected Oblasts should keep a greater share of their resources Oblasts should be allowed to determine certain economic policies Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following actions to reform governing structures in Ukraine: