Bosnia and Herzegovina

Transcription

1 Public Opinion Poll Bosnia and Herzegovina APRIL-MAY Ipsos.

2 METHODOLOGY Ipsos.

3 METHODOLOGY DATA COLLECTION 25 April 15 May, 2018 METHOD Quantitative face to face survey within households Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI method) POPULATION Population of Bosnia and Herzegovina aged 18+ SAMPLE FRAME Polling station territories database (CEC) SAMPLE SIZE N=2,059 (1142 in FBiH, 917 in RS, 200 boost sample in Croat majority areas) Data are weighted where necessary (by region, age, gender and education) in order to reflect the true population allocation according to the 2013 census Ipsos. SAMPLING ERROR +/- 2.2% on full sample +/- 3.1% at entity level SAMPLE TYPE Stratified sample STRATIFICATION Within each entity the sample was stratified by region and settlement type STEPS OF RANDOM SELECTION Step 1: Random selection of polling stations Step 2: Random selection of households (random route technique) Step 3: Random selection of respondents within HH (Kisch scheme)

4 RESEARCH RESULTS STATEWIDE OVERVIEW Ipsos.

5 Citizens continue to see BiH moving in the wrong direction; RS respondents are slightly less pessimistic about their entity than those in FBiH. Statewide FBiH RS 87% 89% 78% 9% 8% 16% RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION DK/REF Generally speaking, do you think that things in Bosnia and Herzegovina are moving in the right or wrong direction? Base: Total N=2059 Generally speaking, do you think that things in FBiH are moving in the right or wrong direction? Base: FBiH Total N=1142 Generally speaking, do you think that things in RS are moving in the right or wrong direction? Base: RS Total N= Ipsos.

6 Across demographic groups, citizens of BiH are fairly pessimistic about the near future. BETTER 16% Bosniak Serb 26% 33% Croat 36% SAME 51% 30% WORSE % 27% 32% % Thinking about the next year, do you expect that your life and the lives of your family members will be better, worse or the same as today? Base: Total N= Ipsos.

7 Pessimism is still driven by political and economic stagnation. Emigration appears to be a growing concern. What would you name as the two biggest problems that FBiH is facing today? (first mentioned) Base: FBiH Total N=1142 What would you name as the two biggest problems that RS is facing today? (first mentioned) Base: RS Total N=917 Unemployment 40% % Unemployment 46% % Political Situation / Politicians 12% The outflow of population 8% Corruption 7% Corruption 7% The outflow of population 7% Low income 6% Low income 6% Poor economic situation 5% Poor economic situation 4% Political Situation / Politicians 4% Poverty / Low standard 4% Crime 4% Divided Nations (National / Ethnic) 3% Poverty / Low standard 3% OTHER (<2%) 7% OTHER (<2%) 7% DK/REF 10% DK/REF 11% Ipsos.

8 The view that politicians use ethnic tension for political gain may be softening slightly, driven by pronounced movement among Bosniaks and Serbs. DK/REF 7% MORE INTERESTED IN REDUCING ETHNIC TENSION 16% 2017 More interested in reducing ethnic tension: 7% More interested in using ethnic tension for political gain: 85% MORE INTERESTED IN USING ETHNIC TENSION FOR POLITICAL GAIN 77% Generally speaking, do you think that politicians in BiH are more interested in taking meaningful steps to reduce ethnic tension, or are they more interested in using ethnic tension for political gain? Base: Total N= Ipsos.

9 Citizens continue to view the territorial arrangement of Bosnia and Herzegovina through an ethnic lens. Entities should be abolished Arrangement of the state should remain unchanged BiH should be divided into three independent states BiH should be divided into several economic regions Third, Croatian entity should be formed 6% 17% 9% 12% 5% 8% 11% 13% 9% 9% 8% 2% 6% 26% 27% 33% 42% 42% 51% 63% Which of the following best describes your view about the territorial arrangement of Bosnia and Herzegovina? Base: Total N= Ipsos. TOTAL Bosniak Serb Croat

10 Croats and Bosniaks differ significantly on the territorial organization of the FBiH. The Federation should remain one entity, but cantons should be abolished 33% 45% 51% The Federation BiH should be divided economically into several regions 20% 23% 12% The territorial arrangement of the Federation should remain unchanged 12% 14% 7% The Federation should be divided ethnically between Croats and Bosniaks 5% 12% 34% DK/REF 11% 7% 14% Which of the following statements best describes your personal view about the territorial arrangement of the Federation BiH? Base: FBiH Total N= Ipsos. TOTAL BOSNIAK CROAT

11 More than half say media rarely provide accurate and impartial information. Croats are particularly distrustful. SOMETIMES 35% 31% NOT VERY OFTEN Not very often+almost never: 52% ALMOST ALWAYS 10% 21% ALMOST NEVER (Bosniak: 50%, Serb: 48%, Croat: 63%) Generally speaking, do the media in BiH provide you with accurate and impartial information? Base: Total N= Ipsos.

12 Respondents believe media disinformation exists and clearly see its negative impact. YES (DISINFORMATION EXISTS) 84% YES (DISINFORMATION CAUSES PUBLIC CONFUSION) 92% 9% NO (DISINFORMATION DOES NOT EXIST) 5% NO (DISINFORMATION DOES NOT CAUSE PUBLIC CONFUSION) Do you believe disinformation exists in media coverage of social, political and economic issues?/do you think disinformation in the media causes confusion in the public about the basic facts of current events and issues? Base: Total N=2059/ Ipsos.

13 The public is moderately concerned about incoming migration and refugee flows through BiH. 14% 25% 31% 27% 2% 39% Concerned Very concerned Not very concerned Somewhat concerned Not at all concerned How concerned are you about migration and refugee flows in BiH? Base: Total N= Ipsos.

14 More than half express general concern about foreign interference in the political affairs of BiH. 22% 32% VERY CONCERNED 28% 14% 5% SOMEWHAT CONCERNED 54% Concerned 56% Bosniak 59% Serbs 39% Croats NOT VERY CONCERNED NOT AT ALL CONCERNED And how concerned are you about foreign interference in the political affairs of BiH? Base: Total N= Ipsos.

15 RESEARCH RESULTS BIH ACCESSION TO EU Ipsos.

16 Eight out of ten people in BiH support accession to the EU including a clear majority of Serbs. SUPPORT OPPOSE Bosniak 11% 87% 77% 17% Serb 30% 60% Croat 12% 82% Serb 47% Support 46% Oppose Do you personally support or oppose BiH accession to EU? Base: Total N= Ipsos.

17 Respondents are not satisfied with progress toward EU accession. 8% 32% 22% 34% 8% Very satisfied 34% Very dissatisfied Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied How satisfied are you with the progress made toward BiH EU accession? Base: Total N= Ipsos.

18 One-quarter of BiH population doubts BiH will ever gain EU membership. AFTER % Bosniak 23% 31% 39% BY % 11% 27% NEVER Serb Croat 13% 16% 36% 38% 35% 33% DK/REF Regardless of how you just answered, do you expect BiH to become an EU member by 2025, after 2025, or do you doubt BiH will ever gain EU membership? Base: Total N= Ipsos.

19 BiH citizens doubt the intentions of political leaders regarding their work on accession to the EU. NO 36% 5% 6% YES 53% SOME ARE/SOME ARE NOT Do you believe that political leaders and parties are working in good faith to achieve EU accession? Base: Total N= Ipsos.

20 Across ethnic lines, survey respondents have high expectations for EU membership. 45% 25% 17% 9% 4% Bosniak Serb Would improve a great deal Would improve somewhat Would not improve much Would not improve at all Croat 70% Improve 19% 25% 55% 39% 79% 71% To what degree do you believe that EU membership would improve economic conditions and life in general for BiH citizens? Base: Total N= Ipsos.

21 EU membership is not an abstraction it is personally important for Federation residents and their families, particularly Bosniaks. 39% 39% Very important 15% 5% 2% Somewhat important 78% Important 82% Bosniaks 69% Croats Not very important Not at all important How important is it for you and your family for BiH to gain EU membership in the years ahead? Base: FBiH Total N= Ipsos.

22 RS respondents view EU accession for BiH as more important than membership for Serbia and prefer to join as part of BiH, not independently. EU membership for BiH 26% RS independently 16% EU membership for Serbia 12% RS as part of BiH 42% Both are equally important 34% It makes no difference 17% Neither is important 22% I don't support EU membership at all 16% DK/Ref 6% DK/Ref 10% Thinking again about EU accession, which is more important to you personally: EU membership for BiH or EU membership for Serbia?/And do you think it would be better for the RS to join the EU independently, or as part of BiH? Base: RS Total N= Ipsos.

23 RESEARCH RESULTS ELECTIONS Ipsos.

24 Citizens (especially Croats) have grave concerns about the integrity of elections in BiH. ELECTIONS IN BiH ARE TYPICALLY FREE AND FAIR 3% 11% 12% 13% ELECTIONS IN BiH ARE TYPICALLY FREE AND FAIR, BUT WITH SOME SHORTCOMINGS ELECTIONS IN BiH ARE NOT FREE AND FAIR 22% 31% 32% 36% 42% 52% 52% 67% ALL BOSNIAK SERB CROAT DK/REF 6% 4% 9% 8% Which of the following statements comes closest to your view of elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina? Base: Total N= Ipsos.

25 Three-quarters of Croats believe that the electoral system does not provide adequate representation of all groups. The current electoral system provides for adequate representation of all groups in BiH 15% 29% 29% 35% The electoral system should be altered to ensure equitable representation of all groups in BiH 47% 59% 62% 73% ALL BOSNIAK SERB CROAT DK/REF 12% 8% 18% 12% I am going to read you two statements about the electoral system in BiH. Please tell me which of the statements comes closer to your view. Base: Total N= Ipsos.

26 Only one-third of respondents are satisfied with the parties and lists on offer in the past few elections. 27% 28% 33% 33% Satisfied 6% 6% FBiH 29% Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied RS&Brcko 40% Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Regardless of whether you voted or what parties you may have supported in 2014 and 2016, how satisfied were you with the parties and lists you had to choose from in the past few elections? Base: Total N= Ipsos.

27 Interest in the election is lower than we have seen previously - fewer than half of respondents say they would certainly vote if elections were held now. I WOULD CERTAINLY VOTE 41% Bosniaks 47% Serb 40% Croat 20% I WOULD PROBABLY VOTE I PROBABLY WOULD NOT VOTE 9% 23% % % 2014 General Elections Tournout 54.5% I CERTAINLY WOULD NOT VOTE 19% DK/REF 9% If general elections were held next weekend, how likely is it that you would vote? Base: Total N= Ipsos.

28 RESEARCH RESULTS Federation BiH Ipsos.

29 The current Federation government is still not implementing policies that improve the lives of its citizens, however ratings have improved somewhat. Total rating % % 37% 33% 21% 7% 1% 1% LOWEST RATING HIGHEST RATING How would you rate the performance of the current Federation government in terms of implementing policies that improve the lives of citizens in the FBiH? Base: FBiH Total N= Ipsos.

30 RESEARCH RESULTS Republika Srpska Ipsos.

31 RS citizens continue to regard the performance of the current RS government as very weak. Total rating % % 25% 31% 35% 6% 3% 1% LOWEST RATING HIGHEST RATING How would you rate the performance of the current RS government in terms of implementing policies that improve the lives of citizens in the RS? Base: RS Total N= Ipsos.

32 More than one-quarter believe that leadership change would be good for RS few believe it will make things worse. Much better than the current governing coalition 9% Positive change 25% Somewhat better 18% About the same 41% Negative results 16% Somewhat worse 13% No real difference 52% Much worse 7% DK/REF 13% DK/REF 8% In your opinion, how would a united opposition govern RS, compared to the current governing coalition led by SNSD?/As you know, Milorad Dodik cannot seek a third term as RS president, so RS will elect a new president this year. Do you believe that this will lead to positive change in RS, do you think it will have negative results, or do you think that it will make no real difference to RS? Base: RS Total N= Ipsos.

33 We see dramatic growth in the credibility of Alliance for Change as a viable alternative to the current coalition. AFC IS A CREDIBLE GOVERNING ALTERNATIVE TO THE CURRENT RULING COALITION IN THE RS 34% 39% AFC IS NOT A CREDIBLE GOVERNING ALTERNATIVE TO THE COALITION OF RULING PARTIES IN THE RS Spring % RS Voters 38% Spring % RS Voters 44% 27% I will now read a pair of statements. Please choose the one that more closely describes your opinion? Base: RS Total N= Ipsos. DK/REF Spring % RS Voters 18%

34 RS voters are not interested in procedural or mechanical matters; they want policy solutions and good candidates. Offer clear policy solutions for citizens' problems 36% Offer better qualified candidates 22% Have joint candidates for RS President and for BiH Presidency 10% Have joint candidate lists for BiH PA and RSNA 7% Have separate candidates and candidate lists 5% DK/REF 20% Regardless of how you currently feel about Alliance for Change, thinking ahead to the 2018 general election, what should the opposition coalition do to be a more credible option for voters? Base: RS Total N= Ipsos.

35 Budget cuts and new revenue are seen as key to economic stability and growth in RS. 30% 40% 10% 8% 12% 70% Agree Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Some have said that long term economic stability and growth in RS can only happen if we cut public spending and increase government revenue. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? Base: RS Total N= Ipsos.

36 Reforms aimed at self-dealing and transparency have broad appeal. FORBID EMPLOYMENT OF IMMEDIATE RELATIVES OF PUBLIC OFFICIALS 58% 29% A RULE THAT PUBLIC EMPLOYEES CAN RECEIVE ONLY ONE SALARY FROM THE RS BUDGET 57% 30% REDUCE THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN RS ADMINISTRATION 50% 33% PUBLISH ALL BUDGET EXPENSES OVER 1000 BAM FOR RS PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS 50% 32% ENSURE THAT TAXES AND BENEFITS ARE PAID BEFORE SALARIES ARE DISTRIBUTED 45% 38% Now I will read you some policies that have been proposed to balance the budget and stabilize the RS economy. Please tell me whether you think each one would be very effective, somewhat effective, not very effective or not at all effective in improving the economic situation in RS. Base: RS N= Ipsos. Very effective Somewhat effective Not very effective Not at all effective

37 Anti nepotism rules are seen as the most effective reform measure; streamlining the public payroll and ending double dipping are right behind. Forbid employment of immediate relatives of RS officials 36% Only one public salary 27% Reduce the number of employees in RS administration 24% Prevent distribution of net salaries without regular tax and 6% Publish budget expenses over 1000 BAM 6% Which 1 or 2 of these measures do you think would be MOST effective in stimulating the RS economy? Base: RS Total N= Ipsos.

38 Citizens in all areas of RS agree that agriculture is a significant development opportunity. Strongly agree 41% Somewhat agree 43% Somewhat disagree 6% Strongly disagree 4% DK/REF 6% Some say that agriculture is a great development opportunity for RS and that if properly managed, the agricultural sector could become a key source of employment, export and overall growth and development for RS. Please tell me whether you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat or disagree strongly with this claim? Base: RS Total N= Ipsos.

39 Several policies proposed by AfC are considered likely to be effective in stimulating the agricultural sector. ESTABLISH AN EFFICIENT ACTIVITY COORDINATION SYSTEM WITH BIH LEVEL AUTHORITIES IN ORDER TO OBTAIN AVAILABLE EU PRE-ACCESSION FUNDS. 44% 36% REPLACE ANNUALLY ADOPTED AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES WITH SUBSIDIES THAT ARE SET FOR AT LEAST FIVE YEARS. 42% 35% SET THE LEVEL OF AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES AT 6% OR 7% OF RS DOMESTIC INCOME. 42% 36% Regardless of how you just answered, I would like to read you some measures that have been suggested to stimulate the agricultural sector in RS. Please tell me whether you think each one would be very effective, somewhat effective, not very effective or not at all effective. Base: RS N= Ipsos. Very effective Somewhat effective Not very effective Not at all effective

40 DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF THE SAMPLE Ipsos.

41 DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF THE SAMPLE GENDER EDUCATION AGE 22% 48% 52% 26% 62% 22% 25% 12% 31% MALE FEMALE ELEMENTARY OR LESS SECONDARY COLLEGE/UNIVERSITY Ipsos.

42 DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF THE SAMPLE TYPE OF SETTLEMENT ETHNICITY 42% 58% 42% 39% 18% URBAN RURAL BOSNIAK SERB CROAT OTHER Ipsos.

43 DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF THE SAMPLE REGIONS Region % Una-Sana Canton 5.7 Tuzla Canton 8.9 Zenica-Doboj Canton 7.1 Central Bosnia Canton 7.4 Herzegovina-Neretva Canton 7.4 West Herzegovina Canton 4.3 Canton Sarajevo 8.5 Canton Posavina Canton 2.3 Bosnian-Podrinje Canton 0.8 North Republika Srpska 26.5 East Republika Srpska 15.4 District Brcko % FBiH ENTITY 45% RS & DISTRICT BRCKO Ipsos.