Bangladesh Survey of Public Opinion. February 4-21, 2016

Transcription

1 Bangladesh Survey of Public Opinion February 4-21, 2016

2 Detailed Methodology The survey was conducted by Nielsen-Bangladesh under the supervision of Mr. Rob Varsalone of Global Strategic Partners and the International Republican Institute between February 4 21, Data was collected using a multi-stage stratified probability sample and through in-person, in-home interviews. The sample was stratified by the eight administrative divisions, by district and by urban and rural locations. The sample consisted of 2,550 respondents (response rate: 43 percent) aged 18 and older, and was representative of voting-age adults nationally. The sample was distributed into 255 primary sampling units (PSU) from all 64 districts of all eight divisions. PSUs were defined as mouza in rural areas and as mahalla in urban areas. The probability-proportional-to-size method was used to select localities. After identifying a centrally located starting point, the Date Method was used to select the first house and then Systematic Random Sampling was used to select the appropriate household. Within each household, the Kish Grid was then used to select respondents 18 years and older. Interview teams were comprised of both males and females. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus two percent at the mid-range with a confidence level of 95 percent. The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. 2

3 Indicators

4 Do you believe things in Bangladesh are heading in the right direction, or are they heading in the wrong direction? 80% 73% 70% 60% 6 59% 56% 6 64% 50% 40% 33% 35% 39% 36% 3 30% 23% 20% 10% 0% Nov 2013 Jan 2014 Sep 2014 Jun 2015 Nov 2015 Feb 2016 Right direction Wrong direction 4

5 Why do you say right direction? (Those responding right direction, n=1,866, open-ended) Education improvement 7 Development in transportation system 17% Better economy 5% More electricity production Overall development Declining terrorism 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 5

6 Over the past year, do you believe that the education system has gotten better or worse? 5% Much better Somewhat better 55% Somewhat worse 37% Much worse Don't know/refused to answer 6

7 Why do you think the education system is better? (Those responding better, n=2,333, open-ended) There are more schools Literacy has increased 15% 15% Students receive govt. stipends 13% Public exam pass rate has increased 9% Education system is good 6% Govt. provides education for everyone 4% Standards have increased Kids attend school regularly Cheating has declined Girls education is free Other 5% Don't know/refused 7% 0% 4% 6% 8% 10% 1 14% 16% 7

8 Why do you say wrong direction? (Those responding wrong direction, n=591, open-ended) Political instability 39% Price hikes 7% Economic decline Poor transportation system Corruption increased Hartals* One-sided government 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% *Hartals refer to mass protests that cause sectors of the economy to close down. 8

9 Overall, how would you rate the current security conditions in Bangladesh? Feb % 6% 3% Nov % 5 1 9% Jun % 39% 14% 16% Sep % 4 17% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/refused 9

10 Overall, how would you rate the current political stability in Bangladesh? Feb % 58% 9% 7% 8% Nov % 9% 13% 8% Jun % 7% Sep % 40% 2 16% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very stable Somewhat stable Somewhat unstable Very unstable Don't know/refused 10

11 Why do you think the situation is unstable? (Those responding unstable, n=402, open-ended) Quarreling 25% Political party disputes Bad security 1 13% One-party politics Corruption/Abuse of power 10% 10% Lack of democracy 6% Hartals 5% Economy Don't Know/Refused 16% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Multiple responses were allowed. 11

12 Thinking some more about the political stability of Bangladesh, in the year ahead do you think that it will improve, worsen or stay the same? Feb % 7% 16% 13% Nov % 17% 13% 20% Jun % 15% 20% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Improve Same Worsen Don't know/refused 12

13 Overall, how would you rate the current economic conditions in Bangladesh? Feb % 48% 10% 5% Nov % 49% 1 7% Jun % 44% 14% 1 Sep % 19% 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/refused 13

14 Thinking about the personal economic situation of you and your family, in the past year has it improved, worsened or stayed the same? Feb % 14% 16% Nov % 18% 17% Jun % 19% Sep % 2 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Improved Same Worsened Don't know/refused 14

15 Thinking some more about the personal economic situation of you and your family, in the coming year do you think it will improve, worsen or stay the same? Feb % 10% 1 Nov % 5% 1 Jun % 13% 10% 14% Sep % 16% 14% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Improve Same Worsen Don't know/refused 15

16 Do you and your family have enough income to afford basic commodities (rice, milk, eggs, fish, dhal*, etc.) in the market? Feb % 20% Nov % 10% Jun % 13% Sep % 2 Yes No Don't know/refused *Dhal is the Bengali term for lentils, a regional dietary staple. 16

17 Do you expect the price of basic commodities to be higher or lower six months from now? Feb % 49% 9% 10% 3% 1 Nov % % Jun % 55% 8% 5% 7% Sep % 60% 9% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Much higher Slightly higher Same Slightly lower Much lower Don't know/refused 17

18 Approval Ratings

19 For each of the following issues, how would you rate the national government s performance? Education Healthcare Infrastructure development Keeping the peace Gender equality Water and sanitation Water availability Electricity availability Fighting crime Inflation Employment Poverty reduction Dealing with hartals Fighting corruption Housing Ending sectarian conflict Land rights Democratic reforms Ending ethnic conflict 45% 50% 49% 58% 55% 55% % 65% % 70% 70% 78% 77% 88% 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 15% 2 19% 19% 20% 3 37% 17% 19% 17% 3 34% 35% 43% 18% 24% 35% 16% 18% 27% 26% 29% 20% 10% 10% 13% 1 13% 6% 6% 8% 5% 4% 4% 4% 6% Good Bad Don't know/refused 19

20 Can you tell me which party best reflects each of the statements below? They are trustworthy They have strong leadership They have many young leaders They support women They are more religious They have good policies They support democratic reform They care about people like me Their policies help the poor They consistently fight corruption 25% 18% 2 18% 27% 2 23% 2 28% 27% 18% 27% 25% 26% 2 26% 2 23% 25% 33% 39% 57% % 55% 49% % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Awami League Bangladesh Nationalist Party Neither/Don't know/refused 20

21 Can you tell me which party best reflects each of the statements below? They would improve education 7% 20% 73% They would improve infrastructure 2 19% 60% They would improve healthcare 17% 2 6 They would improve security 24% 24% 53% They would improve the economy They would strengthen the nation 24% 27% 25% 26% 49% 50% They would end ethnic conflict 2 35% 44% They would maintain political stability 24% 30% 47% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Awami League Bangladesh Nationalist Party Neither/Don't know/refused 21

22 Thinking now about the following political parties, would you say you liked or disliked them? 7 Awami League 19% 10% 48% BNP 39% 13% 35% Jatiya 45% 2 26% Jamaat-e-Islami 50% 23% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Like Dislike Don't know/refused 22

23 Top Issues

24 What are the three most important problems facing Bangladesh? (Open-ended, comparison of previous survey data, first choice shown) Issue Feb 2016 Nov 2015 Jun 2015 Sep 2014 Jan 2014 Nov 2013 Economy 2 17% 1 13% 7% 23% Security/Law and order 2 13% 15% 9% 1 1 Political instability % 13% 39% 34% Corruption 9% 18% 24% 20% 36% 20% Transportation/Traffic/Infrastructure 8% 1 6% 17% 3% 24

25 Can you give me an example of corruption in Bangladesh? (Open-ended) Need to pay bribe to get a job 45% Need to bribe police 1 Corruption in judiciary 8% Bribes to doctors/hospitals People do not properly benefit from govt. programs Corruption in education 4% 4% 5% Question's leaked for public exams Corruption in land deals Stuffed ballot boxes Need to bribe to get electric meter Corruption in road construction Don't know/refused to answer 1 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 25

26 Perceptions of Democracy

27 In Bangladesh, if you could only have one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a prosperous economy? Feb % 13% 13% 1 13% Nov % 8% 13% 3 5% Jun % 9% 14% 13% 5% Sep % 7% 20% 10% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Democracy is definitely more important Prosperity is somewhat more important Don't know/refused to answer Democracy is somewhat more important Prosperity is definitely more important 27

28 When you hear the word democracy, what first comes to your mind? (Open-ended) Response Percent Government elected by the people 19% Everyone is equal 9% Freedom of speech 9% Individual liberty 6% Country is peaceful Bangladesh is independent Other 6% Don t know/refused to answer 49% 28

29 Of the following statements, would you say you agree or disagree? Democracy might have problems, but it is still better than any other form of government. 45% 30% 18% 7% Democracies aren't good at maintaining law and order. 7% 27% 4 26% Democracies are indecisive and have too much quarreling 1 38% 30% 20% In a democracy the economic system runs badly. 8% 29% 35% 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree 29

30 Agree or Disagree? Voting gives me a chance to influence decision-making in the country. Feb % 3 7% 5% Nov % 23% 4% Jun % 2 5% 5% Sep % 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/refused 30

31 Agree or disagree? Politicians listen to my needs and ideas. 17% 1 Most of the time Some of the time Rarely 27% Never 45% 31

32 Religion and Politics

33 In your opinion, how influential is religion on your day-to-day views and opinions? 39% 35% 5% 17% 4% Bangladesh politics? 15% 4 6% 24% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very influential Somewhat influential Not very influential Not influential at all 33

34 How often do you attend religious services? Daily 56% Once a week 34% Once or twice a month 6% A few times a year 3% Rarely if ever < 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 34

35 Views on Extremism

36 To what extent do you think that... 3% political extremism is a problem in Bangladesh? 53% 16% 26% religious extremism is a problem in Bangladesh? 44% 18% 8% 28% extremism is a problem in Bangladesh? 5 15% 4% 28% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very big problem Somewhat of a problem Not really a problem Not a problem at all 36

37 In your opinion, what is the main cause of extremism in Bangladesh? Political differences 38% Religious differences 6% Personal grievances 4% Socio-economic tensions There are no extremists in Bangladesh Ethnic tension Don't know/refused to answer 47% 37

38 Do you ever think it is justified to use violence? 6% Yes No Don't know/refused to answer 93% 38

39 Elections

40 Thinking now about elections, when would you like to see the next national parliamentary elections occur? 60% 50% 40% % 40% 36% 36% 43% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% The parliament should complete its term Within the next four years Within the next three years Within the next two years 5% 3% 3% 4% Within the next year As soon as possible Feb 2016 Nov 2015 Jun 2015 Sep

41 Where do you get information related to candidates and political parties? Family members 37% Media Political party/candidate platforms 18% 19% Village/Community leaders 14% Civil society organizations 6% Religious group/religious leaders Other Don't know/refused to answer 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% What or who influences your voting decision the most? No one Family members Political party/candidate platforms Village/Community leaders Media Civil society organizations Taka or gift Don't know/refused to answer 5% 5% 4% 18% 65% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 41

42 Agree or Disagree? The municipal elections of December 30, 2015 were free and fair 7% 8% 7% Strongly agree Somewhat agree 56% Somewhat disagree 2 Strongly disagree Don't know/refused to answer 42

43 What is the first thing you would like to see the new municipal government accomplish in the first year? (Open-ended) Development of roads 45% Fix the sewage system 6% Give people jobs Solve the water supply problem Solve the gas supply problem Solve the electricity problem Keep the peace Development of schools and colleges Contruct a bridge in the area Overall development Clean the municipality 4% 3% Don't know/refused to answer 33% 43

44 Should a non-party, caretaker government be brought back before the next parliamentary elections? Feb % 3 9% Nov % 23% 9% Jun % 2 1 Sep % 25% 8% Jan % 18% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Yes No Don't know/refused 44

45 Women and Youth

46 Agree or Disagree? Women are equally represented in political decision-making positions in Bangladesh. Feb % 48% 10% 4% Nov % 33% 13% 7% Jun % 43% 1 7% Sep % 1 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree 46

47 Agree or disagree? Politicians don t listen to the needs and ideas of women. 2 1 Strongly agree 29% Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree 39% 47

48 If there are two candidates running for office and they are exactly the same aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman, which candidate would you prefer? Feb % 3 13% Nov % 23% 20% Jun % 23% 2 Sep % 29% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Man Woman No difference 48

49 If there are two candidates running for office and they are exactly the same aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman, which candidate would you prefer? By Gender Feb 2016 Nov 2015 Jun 2015 Sep 2014 Men/Prefer man 74% 77% 69% 79% Men/Prefer woman 14% 5% 10% 7% Men/No difference 1 16% 2 14% Women/Prefer man 36% % Women/Prefer woman 50% 4 37% 5 Women/No difference 14% 24% 3 16% 49

50 Agree or Disagree? Politicians don t listen to the needs and ideas of young people. Feb % 30% 30% Nov % 19% 16% Jun % 33% 26% 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/refused to answer 50

51 Media

52 From which type of media are you most likely to get your news? 70% 64% 60% 50% 40% 30% 24% 20% 10% 0% TV Word of mouth Internet Newspapers Radio Social Media 52

53 Which TV station do you most often watch? (Those answering TV, n=1,619, open-ended) Somoy 26% BTV 18% ATN 15% NTV 13% Ch i RTV 4% 5% Ch 71 BanglaVision Ch 24 Independent Other Don't Know/Refused 5% 6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 53

54 To which radio station do you most often listen? (Those answering radio, n=25, open-ended) Radio Today % Bangla Betar 16% Dhaka FM 8% BBC Bangla 8% Radio Today 4% Radio Amar 4% Radio Foorti 4% FM % Don't Know/Refused 28% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 54

55 Which newspaper do you most often read? (Those answering newspaper, n=55) Protidin 24% Prothom Alo 20% Ittefaq Jugantor Manob Jamin 9% 9% 9% Somokal Inqilab Jonokontho Kaler Kontho 4% 4% 4% 4% Daily Star Khoborer Kagoj Manabkontho Don't Know/Refused 9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 55

56 Demographics Monthly Household Income Less Than 5,000 taka* 9% 5,001-10,000 taka 4 10,001-15,000 taka 26% 15,001-20,000 taka 1 20,001-30,000 taka 7% 30,001 taka + 4% Division Dhaka 3 Chittagong 20% Rajshahi 13% Khulna 1 Rangpur 1 Sylhet 7% Barisal 6% Education Illiterate 19% Literate/No Formal Schooling 9% Class % Class % Secondary School Certificate/Dakhil 10% Higher Secondary Certificate 7% Bachelor of Arts/Bachelor of Science 3% Graduate Degree Age years years 25% years 16% years 10% 61 years + 8% Religion Muslim 9 Hindu 8% Buddhist Gender Male 50% Female 50% Area Urban 26% Rural 74% *At the time of survey release, one Bangladeshi taka was equivalent to $0.013 USD. 56

57 Center for Insights in Survey Research