Cuban Public Opinion Survey June 30 July 13, 2011

Transcription

1 Cuban Public Opinion Survey June 30 July 13, 2011

2 Survey Methodology Dates of Interviewing: The fieldwork was conducted June 30 July 13, Data Collection Method: Stratified-intercept methodology based on personal, face-to-face interviews in Cuba. Sample Size: 572 Cuban adults (age 18 and older). Sample: Interviews were conducted in fourteen (14) Cuban provinces: Ciudad de La Habana, Provincia de La Habana, Pinar del Río, Matanzas, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Ciego de Ávila, Camaguey, Holguín, Guantánamo, Las Tunas, Granma and Santiago de Cuba. The sample was stratified by province, then by sub-units within each province. Interviewees were allocated by gender and age quotas. The final selection of each interviewee was random. Respondents: The sample selection for province, gender and age are based on the last available Cuban census data, released in Maximum Sample Margin of Error: Margin of error of ± four percent for a 95 percent level of confidence.

3 Demographics

4 Demographics: Gender and Age Age 30 to % 40 to % 50 to % 18 to % 60 or Older 17.5% 4

5 Demographics: Province 5

6 Demographics: Education and Race Education Race No Answer 0.3% Do Not Know 3.8% None 1.2% Primary 5.6% White 49.6% University or Higher 25.7% Secondary 39.9% Intermediary 23.4% Afro- Cuban 50.4% 6

7 Demographics: Profession or Job Full Sample 4.2% 9.4% Those Not Working (N = 135) 1.7% 14.7% 23.6% 47.4% 31.9% 44.4% 1.0% 20.7% Works for the Cuban Government in a Leading Position Works for the Cuban Government as an Employee Works for a Mixed or Foreign Company Works as Autonomous, Farmer or Private Business Owner Works Full-Time in the House Works in the Informal Economy as Main Source of Income Not Working working No answer Answer Not Working Student Retired / Pensioner 7

8 Demographics: Receiving Remittances from Family Members or Friends Abroad Full Sample Those Receiving Remittances (N = 132) No Answer 3.8% Yes 23.1% At Least Every Year 32.6% At Least Every Six Months 35.6% No 73.1% Once A Month 31.8% 8

9 Perspectives on Cuba

10 What do you think is the biggest problem in Cuba? Low Salaries / High Cost of Living Double Currency Standard Food Scarcity Lack of Housing / Dilapidated Housing Lack of Freedoms / Political System Embargo / Isolation Health / Lack of Medicines Poor Transportation Infrastructure Other (Drugs / Crime / Corruption) There are no problems Hurricanes 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 40.0% 42.6% 43.1% 42.5% 18.2% 11.2% 12.0% 7.6% 13.8% 2.2% 3.8% 12.7% 19.7% 12.8% 6.8% 11.6% 0.5% 5.0% 1.4% 7.9% 2.4% 3.8% 1.4% 1.3% 9.5% 6.9% 8.9% 18.2% 3.0% 3.5% 8.8% 6.4% 8.5% 4.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.6% 2.5% 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 2.3% 4.7% 4.1% 3.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.7% 2.5% 1.2% 3.5% 2.4% 2.8% 1.5% 3.5% 6.3% 1.4% 60.7% 60.7% July 2011 February 2011 August 2009 November 2008 April 2008 October

11 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% What do you think is the biggest problem in Cuba? (by gender) 1.7% 1.1% 2.7% 3.2% 20.2% (N = 539) 16.1% 40% 30% 60.3% 61.1% 20% 10% 0% 3.1% 4.6% 0.7% Male Female 1.4% Medicines Food Salaries Double Currency Embargo Lack of Freedoms 11

12 100% 90% 80% What do you think is the biggest problem in Cuba? (by age) 1.7% 1.7% 0.7% (N = 539) 2.9% 0.8% 1.6% 2.9% 2.4% 18.5% 16.1% 18.5% 8.7% 3.3% 17.4% 7.0% 3.0% 5.0% 70% 21.0% 60% 50% 40% 30% 63.9% 67.2% 69.4% 58.7% 39.0% 20% 10% 0% 8.0% 4.2% 2.2% 5.4% 0.8% or Older Food Salaries Double Currency Embargo Lack of Freedoms No Problem 12

13 What do you think is the biggest problem in Cuba? (by remittances) 100% 90% 80% 12.7% (N = 539) 1.1% 2.4% 0.7% 2.6% 0.7% 4.1% 20.8% 70% 60% 50% 40% 63.1% 60.8% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5.7% They Receive Remittances 2.6% Do Not Receive Remittances Food Salaries Double Currency Embargo Crime Lack of Freedoms 13

14 Do you believe the current government will succeed in solving Cuba s biggest problem in the next few years? July % 70.1% 5.6% 3.7% February % 77.0% 7.5% 1.8% August % 66.0% 19.0% November % 68.8% 1.8% April % 70.5% 2.6% October % 71.2% 10.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Yes No Do Not Know No Answer 14

15 Do you believe the current government will succeed in solving Cuba s biggest problem in the next few years? (by gender) (N = 519) 100% 90% 80% 70% 3.0% 5.3% 4.4% 5.9% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 68.8% 71.5% 10% 22.9% 18.2% 0% Male Female Yes No Do Not Know No Answer 15

16 Do you believe the current government will succeed in solving Cuba s biggest problem in the next few years? (by age) (N = 519) 100% 90% 6.3% 1.8% 4.0% 5.1% 1.3% 5.9% 2.4% 5.9% 10.0% 4.7% 80% 70% 60% 50% 78.4% 72.0% 68.6% 68.8% 60.0% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 29.4% 21.6% 20.3% 20.0% 13.5% or Older Yes No Do Not Know No Answer 16

17 Generally speaking, would you say things in Cuba are going very well, well, so-so, badly or very badly? 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 9.8% 2.4% 5.2% 4.2% 1.6% 2.2% 35.0% 35.3% 31.4% 33.3% 33.7% 32.9% 31.3% 28.9% 29.9% 26.7% 26.7% 24.1% 22.2% 20.8% % 15.5% 19.9% 16.2% 18.2% 19.9% 15.4% 15.3% 13.8% 12.1% 9.4% July 2011 February 2011 August 2009 November 2008 April 2008 October % 1.7% 0.7% 1.4% 1.3% 0.5% Very Well Well So-So So-so Badly Very Badly No Answer 17

18 Generally speaking, would you say things in Cuba are going very well, well, so-so, badly or very badly? (by gender) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0.3% 10.6% 31.2% 22.6% 29.1% 1.8% 1.1% 8.2% 34.6% 25.7% 24.3% 0% 6.2% 4.3% Male Female Very Well Well So-So Badly Very Badly Do Not Know No Answer 18

19 Generally speaking, would you say things in Cuba are going very well, well, so-so, badly or very badly? (by age) 100% 90% 0.9% 0.8% 12.6% 10.9% 7.3% 10.9% 5.0% 80% 70% 60% 37.8% 34.3% 37.1% 29.3% 23.0% 23.0% 50% 40% 21.0% 25.5% 26.6% 23.9% 30% 20% 10% 0% 43.0% 28.3% 21.8% 24.1% 20.2% 5.9% 4.4% 4.8% 6.5% 5.0% or Older Very Well Well So-So Badly Very Badly Do Not Know No Answer 19

20 Overall, would you say your family s economic situation has gotten worse, improved or stayed the same from one year ago? 18.0% 1.2% 0.9% 18.2% 61.7% Has Improved The Same Is Worse Do Not Know No Answer 20

21 100% Overall, would you say your family s economic situation has gotten worse, improved or stayed the same from one year ago? (by gender) 90% 18.8% 17.1% 80% 70% 60% 50% 60.6% 62.9% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 19.5% Male 16.8% Female Has Improved The Same Is Worse 21

22 Overall, would you say your family s economic situation has gotten worse, improved or stayed the same from one year ago? (by age) 100% 90% 20.2% 15.3% 18.5% 23.9% 13.0% 80% 70% 60% 55.0% 50% 40% 62.2% 65.7% 64.5% 58.7% 30% 20% 10% 0% 17.5% 13.4% 16.9% 16.3% 28.0% or Older Has Improved The Same Is Worse 22

23 Do you think the economic situation of your family, during the next 12 months...? 10.3% 2.8% 3.0% 22.9% 61.0% Will Improve Will Stay The Same Will Get Worse Do Not Know No Answer 23

24 Do you think the economic situation of your family, during the next 12 months...? (by age) 100% 90% 12.6% 8.0% 8.9% 16.3% 7.0% 80% 70% 60% 50% 63.9% 60.6% 66.1% 53.3% 59.0% 40% 30% 20% 10% 21.0% 27.0% 19.4% 20.7% 26.0% 0% or Older Will Improve Will Stay The Same Will Get Worse 24

25 Attitudes Toward Political and Economic Change

26 If you were given the opportunity to vote to change from the current political system to a democratic system with multiparty elections, freedom of speech and freedom of expression would you vote in favor of, or against, that change? July % 10.5% 3.5% 10.5% February % 9.3% 8.0% 4.5% August % 5.8% 19.0% November % 32.4% 4.6% April % 24.9% 13.6% October % 14.2% 10.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% In Favor Against Do Not Know No Answer 26

27 If you were given the opportunity to vote to change from the current political system to a democratic system with multiparty elections, freedom of speech and freedom of expression would you vote in favor of, or against, that change? (by age) 100% 90% 80% 70% 9.2% 1.7% 5.9% 10.2% 3.6% 3.6% 12.1% 1.6% 7.3% 8.7% 5.4% 19.6% 12.0% 6.0% 21.0% 60% 50% 40% 30% 83.2% 82.5% 79.0% 66.3% 61.0% 20% 10% 0% or Older In Favor Against Do Not Know No Answer 27

28 If you were given the opportunity to vote to change from the current system to a market economy with economic freedoms, private property, the possibility for Cubans to own their own businesses would you vote in favor of, or against, that change? July 2011 February % 90.7% 1.6% 2.4% 7.5% 2.8% 4.1% 2.4% August % 3.0% 11.4% November % 12.5% 1.2% April % 11.0% 7.2% October ,0% 9.6% 7.4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% In Favor Against Do Not Know No Answer 28

29 If you were given the opportunity to vote to change from the current system to a market economy with economic freedoms, private property, the possibility for Cubans to own their own businesses would you vote in favor of, or against, that change? (by age) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 4.2% 0.8% 2.2% 2.9% 2.2% 9.7% 0.8% 1.6% 9.8% 5.4% 14.0% 4.0% 3.0% 50% 40% 95.0% 92.7% 87.9% 84.8% 79.0% 30% 20% 10% 0% or Older In Favor Against Do Not Know No Answer 29

30 Access to Information Technology

31 Do you have access to the Internet or ? 90% 80% 70% 60% 83.4% 79.7% 72.6% 64.9% 63.2% 56.7% 50% 40% 34.7% 30% 22.5% 25.7% 27.4% 20% 10% 6.6% 5.0% 8.6% 4.6% 9.4% 9.4% 10.0% 15.7% 0% Access to Internet Access to None July 2011 February 2011 August 2009 November 2008 April 2008 October

32 How often do you have access to your or the Internet? 3.7% 5.1% 7.8% 83.4% Daily Weekly Monthly or Less No Access 32

33 Do you regularly use a cellular phone? 100% 90% 80% 77.8% 74.7% 92.1% 82.6% 92.7% 90.1% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 22.2% 25.3% 17.4% 7.9% 7.3% 9.9% 0% Uses Cellular Phone Does Not Use Cellular Phone July 2011 February 2011 August 2009 November 2008 April 2008 October

34 Do you regularly use a cellular phone? (by age) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 70.6% 69.3% 78.2% 84.8% 91.0% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 29.4% 30.7% 21.8% 15.2% 9.0% or Older Yes No 34

35 Do you regularly use a cellular phone? (by Internet access) 100% 90% 80% 70% 61.4% 60% 50% 89.7% 40% 30% 22.0% 20% 10% 0% 16.5% Yes 6.5% 3.8% No and Internet Only No Access 35

36 Perspectives of Discussed Reforms

37 There has been discussion on the part of Cuba's leaders for reforms to the Cuban system, are actual reforms taking shape? 9.1% 26.9% 11.4% 52.6% Yes No Do Not Know No Answer 37

38 There has been discussion on the part of Cuba's leaders for reforms to the Cuban system, are actual reforms taking shape? (by age) 100% 90% 80% 7.6% 17.6% 10.9% 9.7% 10.9% 11.7% 5.6% 9.8% 6.0% 12.0% 70% 60% 50% 51.3% 51.8% 55.6% 55.2% 52.0% 40% 30% 20% 10% 23.5% 25.5% 29.0% 30.0% 27.2% 0% or Older Yes No Do Not Know No Answer 38

39 Of the reforms taking place, which is the most beneficial to you? (N = 154) 14.9% 9.7% 3.9% 28.6% 11.6% 31.2% Economic Opening Other Do Not Know Licenses for Business None No Answer 39

40 Of the reforms taking place, which is the most beneficial to you? (by age) (N = 154) 100% 90% 80% 14.3% 2.9% 2.8% 8.6% 13.9% 10.7% 5.6% 20.0% 4.0% 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% 70% 10.7% 11.1% 12.0% 20.0% 60% 11.5% 50% 28.6% 33.3% 13.3% 40% 30% 28.6% 44.0% 23.3% 20% 10% 35.7% 28.6% 33.3% 20.0% 23.3% 0% or Older Economic Opening Licenses For Business Other None Do Not Know No Answer 40

41 Beyond what has been discussed, what reform would be most beneficial to you? 9.4% 7.2% 2.8% 17.0% 1.4% 12.4% 19.1% 30.8% Political Reform Economic Opening Better Salaries One Currency Travel Abroad Other Do Not Know No Answer 41

42 Beyond what has been discussed, what reform would be most beneficial to you? (by age) 100% 90% 80% 4.0% 9.2% 7.3% 5.4% 9.7% 4.3% 9.5% 11.8% 3.2% 12.0% 1.7% 6.5% 12.4% 1.1% 10.0% 13.0% 1.1% 1.0% 70% 60% 50% 18.5% 14.3% 14.6% 18.5% 19.6% 31.0% 40% 30% 24.4% 39.4% 35.5% 37.0% 15.0% 20% 10% 0% 14.3% 20.2% 14.6% 18.5% 18.0% 5.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 1.0% or Older Political Reform Economic Opening Better Salaries One Currency Travel Abroad Other Do Not Know No Answer 42

43 Do you believe that substantial economic progress in Cuba is possible without changes to the political system? 3.8% 5.9% 31.1% 59.2% Yes No Do Not Know No Answer 43

44 Do you believe that substantial economic progress in Cuba is possible without changes to the political system? (by age) 100% 90% 4.2% 6.7% 5.8% 3.6% 8.1% 1.6% 4.3% 5.4% 7.0% 2.0% 80% 70% 60% 50% 66.4% 60.6% 61.3% 54.3% 50.0% 40% 30% 20% 10% 22.7% 29.9% 29.0% 35.9% 41.0% 0% or Older Yes No Do Not Know No Answer 44