Cuban Public Opinion Survey February 29 March 14, 2012

Transcription

1 Cuban Public Opinion Survey February 29 March 14, 2012

2 Survey Methodology Dates of Interviewing: Fieldwork conducted February 29 March 14, Data Collection Method: Stratified-intercept methodology based on personal, face-to-face interviews in Cuba. Sample Size: 787 Cuban adults (age 18 and older). Sample: Interviews were conducted in fourteen (14) Cuban provinces: Ciudad de La Habana, Provincia de La Habana, Pinar del Río, Matanzas, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Ciego de Ávila, Camaguey, Holguín, Guantánamo, Las Tunas, Granma and Santiago de Cuba. The sample was stratified by province, then by sub-units within each province. Interviewees were allocated by gender and age quotas. The final selection of each interviewee was random. Respondents: The sample selection for province, gender and age are based on the last available Cuban census data, released in Maximum Sample Margin of Error: Margin of error of ± 3.5 percent for a 95 percent level of confidence. Note: Due to rounding, not all percentages add up to 100.

3 Demographics

4 Demographics: Province 4

5 Demographics: Gender and Age Female 49% Gender 60 or more 20% Age % % Male % 5

6 Demographics: Education and Race Education Race University or More 2 No Answer None Primary 1 Afro-cuban 50% Secondary 29% Intermediary 33% White 50% 6

7 Demographics: Profession or Job Full Sample Those Not Working N= % 4 2 6% 6 16% 16% Works in Leading Position for Cuban Government Works for the Cuban Government Works for a Mixed or Foreign Company Works as Autonomous, Farmer or Private Business Owner Works Full-Time in the House Works in the Informal Economy (Main Source of Income) Not Working No Answer Not Working Student Retired / Pensioner 7

8 Demographics: Receiving Remittances from Family Members or Friends Abroad Full Sample Do not know 0. Those Receiving Remittances N=121 No Answer Yes 15% At Least Every Year 2 At Least Every Six Months 3 No 80% Once A Month 3 8

9 Perspectives on Cuba

10 What do you think is the biggest problem in Cuba? Low Salaries / High Cost of Living 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 5 Double Currency Standard 16% Food Scarcity 13% Lack of / Dilapidated Housing Lack of Freedoms / Political System Embargo / Isolation Health / Lack of Medicines Poor Transportation Infrastructure Other (Drugs, Crime, Corruption) No Problems No Answer 3% 3% March 2012 July 2011 February 2011 August 2009 November 2008 April 2008 October 2007 Do Not Know Hurricanes 10

11 What do you think is the biggest problem in Cuba? Low Salaries / High Cost of Living Double Currency Standard Food Scarcity Lack of / Dilapidated Housing Lack of Freedoms / Political System Embargo / Isolation Health / Lack of Medicines Other 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 3% 0% 13% % % 13% 7% 1 5% 7% 9% 3% 9% 6% 9% 5% 5% 6% 13% 1 13% 1 20% 1 40% 43% 43% 43% March 2012 July 2011 February 2011 August 2009 November 2008 April 2008 October

12 What do you think is the biggest problem in Cuba? (by age) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% (N=154) (N=167) (N=180) (N=132) (N=154) 5% 5% 3% 5% 16% 20% 1 5% 6% 13% 13% 50% 40% 57% 53% 5 56% 36% 30% 20% 20% 0% or Older Medicines Food Salaries Double Currency Embargo Crime Transportation Housing Lack of Freedoms Other No Problem 12

13 What do you think is the biggest problem in Cuba? (by education) N= % 90% 80% 70% (N=13) (N=95) (N=259) (N=227) (N=185) 5% 3% % 3% 0. 5% 6% % 23% 60% 50% 40% 3 50% 4 55% 5 30% 20% 0% 23% 2 1 3% 1 9% 3% None Primary Intermediary Secondary University or Higher Medicines Food Salaries Double Currency Embargo Crime Transportation Housing Lack of Freedoms Other No Problem 13

14 What do you think is the biggest problem in Cuba? (by remittances) N= % 90% (N=121) 6% (N=632) 3% 80% 16% 15% 70% 60% 50% 40% 50% 5 30% 20% 0% 1 13% 3% They Receive Remittances Do Not Receive Remittances Medicines Food Salaries Double Currency Embargo Crime Transportation Housing Lack of Freedoms Other No Problem 14

15 Do you believe the current government will succeed in solving Cuba s biggest problem in the next few years? March % 70% 7% 5% July % 6% February % August % 66% 19% November % 69% April % 7 3% October % 7 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Yes No Do Not Know No Answer 15

16 Do you believe the current government will succeed in solving Cuba s biggest problem in the next few years? Belief vs Profession or Job (by profession or job) N=718 Works in Leading Position for Cuban Government 3 63% 6% (N=8) Works for Cuban Government 19% 70% 5% (N=326) Works for a Mixed or Foreign Company 9% 9 6% (N=11) Works as Autonomous, Farmer or Private Business Owner 16% 7 5% 7% (N=114) Works Full-Time in the House 1 77% 7% 7% (N=43) Works in Informal Economy (Main Source of Income) 23% 6 (N=44) Not Working 19% 67% 1 5% (N=42) Student 1 75% (N=28) Retired / Pensioner 27% 63% 1 3% (N=102) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Yes No Do Not Know No Answer 16

17 Generally speaking, would you say things in Cuba are going very well, well, so-so, badly or very badly? 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 5% 0% 33% 33% 3 30% 35% 35% % 27% % 20% 1 1 9% 3 37% 27% 19% 16% 16% 15% 15% 1 5% 5% Very Badly Badly So-So Well Very Well No Answer October 2007 April 2008 November 2008 August 2009 February 2011 July 2011 March

18 Overall, would you say your family s economic situation has gotten worse, improved or stayed the same from one year ago? March % 23% 1 Compared to July % Has Improved The Same Is Worse No Answer Do Not Know 6 Has Improved The Same Is Worse Do Not Know No Answer 18

19 Do you think the economic situation of your family, during the next 12 months...? March % 27% Compared to July % 3% 3% 23% Will Improve Will Get Worse No Answer Will Stay The Same Do Not Know 6 Will Improve Will Stay The Same Will Get Worse Do Not Know No Answer 19

20 Perspectives of Discussed Reforms

21 Of the reforms implemented by the Cuban government, such as the provision of business licenses and the buying and selling of homes and cars, how many Cubans, out of 10, would you say have directly benefited from them? N= % 1 1 9% 6% 5% 5% 6% 3% 0% Number of Cubans 21

22 Of the implemented reforms, have you directly benefited from any? % Yes No Do Not Know No Answer 22

23 If so, from which reforms have you directly benefited from? 85% N = 787 Yes No Do Not Know No Answer 0. 1 N = 107 5% 83% Licenses for Business Buying or Selling Cars Getting Loans No Answer Buying or Selling Houses Land Leases Other 23

24 Attitudes Toward Political and Economic Change

25 Do you believe that substantial economic progress in Cuba is possible without changes to the political system? March % 3 Compared to July % 6% 3 Yes No Do Not Know No Answer 59% Yes No Do Not Know No Answer 25

26 If you were given the opportunity to vote to change from the current system to a market economy with economic freedoms, private property, the possibility for Cubans to own their own businesses would you vote in favor of, or against, that change? 9% 80% In Favor Against Do Not Know No Answer 26

27 If you were given the opportunity to vote to change from the current system to a market economy with economic freedoms, private property, the possibility for Cubans to own their own businesses would you vote in favor of, or against, that change? March % 9% July % February % August % 3% 1 November % 13% April % October % 7% 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% In Favor Against Do Not Know No Answer 27

28 If you were given the opportunity to vote to change from the current system to a market economy with economic freedoms, private property, the possibility for Cubans to own their own businesses would you vote in favor of, or against, that change? (by age) 100% 90% 80% 70% (N=154) (N=167) (N=180) (N=132) (N=154) 6% 7% 3% 3% 7% 1 17% 60% 50% 40% 30% 90% % 77.3% 64.3% 20% 0% or Older In Favor Against Do Not Know No Answer 28

29 If you were given the opportunity to vote to change from the current political system to a democratic system with multiparty elections, freedom of speech and freedom of expression would you vote in favor of, or against, that change? 1 16% 69% In Favor Against Do Not Know No Answer 29

30 If you were given the opportunity to vote to change from the current political system to a democratic system with multiparty elections, freedom of speech and freedom of expression would you vote in favor of, or against, that change? March % 16% 1 July % 1 1 February % 5% August % 6% 19% November % 3 5% April % 1 October % 1 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% In Favor Against Do Not Know No Answer 30

31 If you were given the opportunity to vote to change from the current political system to a democratic system with multiparty elections, freedom of speech and freedom of expression would you vote in favor of, or against, that change? (by age) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% (N=154) (N=167) (N=180) (N=132) (N=154) 8 % 9% 1 17% 3% % 50% 40% 30% 88 % 7 73% 6 20% 4 0% or Older In Favor Against Do Not Know No Answer 31

32 If a Cuban had an opinion different from the government s, how many of them, out of 10, would express their dissent publicly? N=543 45% 40% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 5% 0% 1 5% Number of Cubans 32

33 Access to Information Technology

34 Do you have access to the Internet or ? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 80% 73% 65% 63% 57% 83% 87% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% 9% 9% 9% 7% 5% 5% 35% 27% 26% 16% and Internet Only No Access 23% October 2007 April 2008 November 2008 August 2009 February 2011 July 2011 March

35 Do you have access to the Internet or ? (by age) 100% (N=154) (N=167) (N=180) (N=132) (N=154) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 75% 8 87% 95% 97% 40% 30% 20% 0% 16% 13% 7% 6% 3% or Older and Internet Only No Access 35

36 How often do you have access to your or the Internet? March % 5% 3% Compared to July % 87% 83% Daily Weekly Monthly or Less No Access Daily Weekly Monthly or Less No Access 36

37 What do you use the Internet for? 87% N = % N = 100 Have Access No Access 3% 3 49% 1 Fun / Entertainment Social Networks / Social Interaction Other 37

38 Do you regularly use a cellular phone? 100% 90% 80% 90% 93% 9 83% 75% 7 79% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 7% 17% 25% 2 2 0% Uses a Cellphone Does Not Use a Cellphone October 2007 April 2008 November 2008 August 2009 February 2011 July 2011 March

39 Do you regularly use a cellular phone? (by age) N= % (N=134) (N=145) (N=155) (N=116) (N=133) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 70% 75% 8 90% 90% 40% 30% 20% 0% 30% 26% 19% or Older Yes No 39