Survey of Iraqi Public Opinion

Transcription

1 Survey of Iraqi Public Opinion June 3 July 3, 2010

2 SURVEY METHODOLOGY

3 SURVEY METHODOLOGY Data collection was performed by trained employees of the International Republican Institute (IRI). The sample frame was based on the latest population estimates by the Iraq Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology and a United Nations World Food Program survey. Consultative guidance on fieldwork and analysis was provided by of Princeton, New Jersey. The target population is Iraqi adults age 18 years and above. A stratified multi-stage sample procedure was used for interviewing. Population within provinces was broken down by districts and geography (urban/rural). Quotas were set by district and by geography within each district. Sample starting points were chosen within districts based by either going to the center of the mahala or to the largest mosque and dropping a pen/pencil on the ground and spinning it. The direction the pen/pencil pointed toward was the direction that the interviewing started. Every fourth dwelling on the left side of the nearest street was sampled until the quota was met. The last birthday method or Kish table method was used for actual respondent selection within each household. A total of 2,988 interviews were completed. The margin of error is plus or minus 1.77 percent overall. Quotas were set by province to allow for provincial analysis and all 2,988 interviews have been weighted proportionally by province, region, gender and ethnicity/religion. Interviews were conducted between June 3 11, 2010; verification followed from June 12 13, 2010 and re-collection and verification of two provinces (Diyala and Wassit) took place from June 27 July 3,

4 SURVEY METHODOLOGY After the data was collected (2,988 interviews), provincial results were weighted in proportion to the national population. For example, Anbar represents 4.2 percent of the registered voters in Iraq; therefore the 159 interviews collected from Anbar were weighted to 4.2 percent of all interviews. Similar weighting was applied to each province to ensure that data is consistent with actual registered voter estimates and previous surveys. Gender in the survey was 71 percent male and 29 percent female. Gender was weighted to reflect the actual numbers in Iraq: 51 percent male and 49 percent female. In addition, weighting was applied to the Shia Arabs, Sunni Arabs and Kurd samples to reflect their estimated numbers in the population: 63 percent, 15 percent and 19 percent, respectively. Verification was performed on 10 percent of the sample, either by actual observation or through follow-up interviews. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error; in all cases where Don t Know/Refuse to Answer rates are more than 10 percent, the information is displayed. When results are broken down by region, gender or religion, the percentage of the total sample is displayed. The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. 4

5 SURVEY METHODOLOGY The survey analyzes data in six regions, as well as individual provinces: Governorates Sample Size / Margin of Error NATIONAL ALL 2,988 (2,991 weighted)/ Kurdistan Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, Dohuk 290 (409 weighted)/ 5.75 Erbil 167 (146 weighted) / 7.58 Sulaymaniyah 72 (173 weighted) / Dohuk 51 (90 weighted) / Territories Ninewah and Tamim (Kirkuk) 373 (394 weighted) / 5.07 Ninewah 274 (269 weighted) / 5.92 Tamim 99 (125 weighted) / Anbar, Salah ad Din, Diyala 435 (367 weighted) / 4.70 Anbar 159 (125 weighted) / 7.77 Salah ad Din 118 (111 weighted) / 9.02 Diyala 158 (131 weighted) /

6 SURVEY METHODOLOGY The survey analyzes data in six regions, as well as individual provinces: Governorates Sample Size / Margin of Error 4. Governorate and Municipality 796 (726 weighted) / Belt Babil, Kerbala, Najaf, Maysan, Muthanna, Qadissiya, Thiqar, Wasit 899 (862 weighted) / 3.27 Babil 165 (152 weighted)/ 7.63 Karbala 131 (90 weighted) / 8.56 Najaf 99 (111 weighted) / 9.85 Maysan 76 (90 weighted) / Muthanna 59 (60 weighted) / Qadissiya 100 (99 weighted) / 9.80 Thiqar 160 (158 weighted) / 7.75 Wassit 109 (102 weighted) / Basrah Governorate and Municipality 195 (233 weighted) /

7 SIX REGIONS OF IRAQ 1. KURDISTAN REGION 2. DISPUTED TERRITORIES 3. NORTHERN TRIANGLE 4. BAGHDAD 5. SOUTHERN BELT 6. BASRAH 7

8 SURVEY DEMOGRAPHICS Actual Poll Percentages Unweighted Male/Female Age Percent Male 71% Female 29% Education Percent Illiterate/No Formal Education 9% Elementary/Intermediate 41% Age Percent Secondary/Diploma 22% Higher % Years Old 23% Years Old 25% Years Old 16% Years Old 21% 53+ Years Old Ethnicity/Religion Percent Shia Arab 63% Kurd 19% Sunni Arab 15% Other 3% 8

9 SURVEY DEMOGRAPHICS Actual Poll Percentages Unweighted Break Down by Ethnicity/Religion Sunni Arab Shia Arab Kurd Other 15% 63% 19% 3% Kurdistan 1% 98% Territories 45% 9% 16% 59% 37% 4% 22% 69% 4% 5% Belt 1% 98% 1% Basrah 4% 96% 9

10 ACRONYM LEGEND DK REF KR SB DT NT MP CoR Don t Know Refuse to Answer Kurdistan Belt Territories Member of Parliament Council of Representatives 10

11 INDICATORS

12 In your opinion, would you say things in Iraq are going in the right direction or in the wrong direction? % 59% % 61% 41% 59% 33% 67% 41% 59% 51% 49% 29% 71% Right Direction Wrong Direction Kurdistan Kurdistan Government () () Territories Territories (13%) () (13%) () Belt Basrah Basrah (24%) Belt (24%) Right Direction Wrong Direction 12

13 In your opinion, would you say things in Iraq are going in the right direction or in the wrong direction? ( break down by ethnicity/religion) % 6 48% 52% 44% 56% 32% Arab Sunni Sunni Arab Shia Shia Kurd Arab Arab (19%) (15%) (63%) (19%) Right Direction Wrong Direction 13

14 In your opinion, would you say things in Iraq are going in the right direction or in the wrong direction? December 2009 June % 43% 6 41% 59% Right Direction Wrong Direction Right Direction Wrong Direction N=7,600 N=2,988 Right Direction Wrong Direction 14

15 Not personally, but in terms of Iraq, what in your opinion is the single biggest problem facing Iraq as a whole? (Comparison) % % 68% 74% % 44%43% Basic Services 24% Security 8% Unemployment 13% 25% Kurdistan () () 23% 3% 8% Territories (13%) (13%) () () 27% 22% 17% 7% 8% 3% Basrah (24%) Belt (24%) 15

16 Not personally, but in terms of Iraq, what in your opinion is the single biggest problem facing Iraq as a whole? December 2009 June % % 23% 24% 8% Unemployment Basic Services (such as water and electricity) Security Unemployment Security Basic Services Security (such as water and electricity) N=7,600 N=2,988 16

17 Do you approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove or disapprove of the Iraqi Government? % 27% Approve 22% 3% Disapprove Don't Know 39% 9% 17% 26% 9% Kurdistan () 39% 29% 13% Territories (13%) 24% 35% 29% 2% () 33% 33% 3% (24%) 36% 28% 15% 2% Belt 16% 16% 27% Basrah Approve Somewhat Approve Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove Don t Know 17

18 Do you approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove or disapprove of the Iraqi Army? % % 32% 32% 31% 41% Approve 4% Disapprove Don't Know 34% 13% 19% 22% Kurdistan () 16% 36% 13% 1% Territories (13%) 48% 6% 13% 1% () 43% 2% (24%) 51% 5% 1% Belt 17% 32% Basrah Approve Somewhat Approve Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove Don t Know 18

19 Do you approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove or disapprove of the Iraqi Police? % 6 28% 34% 35% 33% 45% 33% 36% 35% 39% 36% 13% 41% 13% Approve 5% Disapprove Don't Know 15% 16% 21% Kurdistan () 16% 2% Territories (13%) 3% () 13% 2% (24%) 2% Belt 17% 1% Basrah Approve Somewhat Approve Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove Don t Know 19

20 Do you approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove or disapprove of the Kurdistan Government? % 13% 16% 17% Approve 34% Disapprove Don't Know 45% 7% 1% Kurdistan () 15% 22% 9% Territories (13%) 44% 13% 19% () 35% 25% (24%) 13% 37% 22% Belt 34% 27% Basrah Approve Somewhat Approve Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove Don t Know 20

21 Do you approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove or disapprove of the new Iraqi Council of Representatives? % 25% 13% Approve 15% 25% 22% Disapprove Don't Know 35% 28% Kurdistan () 25% 24% 21% 9% 22% 19% 21% Territories (13%) 31% () 22% 29% 23% (24%) 27% 17% 21% 21% Belt 21% 5% 17% Basrah Approve Somewhat Approve Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove Don t Know 21

22 Do you approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove or disapprove of your province's Provincial Council? % 34% 8% 31% 29% 15% 29% 47% 24% Approve 27% 7% Disapprove Don't Know 26% 22% Kurdistan () 21% 25% 6% Territories (13%) 24% 26% 6% () 15% 26% (24%) 21% 27% 4% Belt 2% Basrah Approve Somewhat Approve Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove Don t Know 22

23 Would you describe the current economic situation in Iraq as very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? % 28% 37% 28% 28% 38% 23% 28% 42% 29% 19% 26% 37% 33% 33% 41% 27% 24% 39% 35% 22% 6% Good Bad 9% Kurdistan () 8% Territories (13%) 3% () 4% (24%) 6% Belt 3% Basrah Very Good Somewhat Good Very Bad Somewhat Bad 23

24 Over the last year, has your household financial situation gotten better, worse or stayed the same? % 48% 22% 46% 16% 17% 39% 49% 26% 54% 22% 19% 7% 4% 15% 1% Better Same Worse Don t Know 9% 5% Kurdistan () 5% 16% Territories (13%) 1% 3% 2% 24% () 6% 1% 17% (24%) 1% 5% 15% Belt 1% 3% 19% 6% Basrah Much Better Somewhat Better Same Somewhat Worse Much Worse Don t Know 24

25 Thinking ahead to next year, do you expect your household financial situation to get better, worse or stay the same? % 46% 64% 64% 56% 54% 49% 8% 8% 2% 5% 17% Better Same Worse Don t Know 7% 4% 3% 16% 8% Kurdistan () 9% 6% 15% 5% Territories (13%) 5% 6% 4% () 9% (24%) 8% 7% 8% 21% Belt 7% 4% 9% 19% Basrah Much Better Somewhat Better Same Somewhat Worse Much Worse Don t Know 25

26 Over the last year, would you say that security in Iraq has gotten much better, gotten somewhat better, gotten somewhat worse or gotten much worse? % 6 47% 47% 56% 51% 6 47% 16% 21% Better 9% Worse 28% 7% 4% Kurdistan () 23% Territories (13%) 32% 5% () 21% 15% 7% (24%) 19% 16% Belt 16% 16% 5% Basrah Much Better Somewhat Better Much Worse Somewhat Worse 26

27 Over the last year, would you say that security in Iraq has gotten better or gotten worse? December 2009 June % % % Better Worse Better Worse N=7,600 N=2,988 27

28 ISSUES

29 Now I am going to read a list of issues. For each one please tell me whether you feel that the situation has gotten better or gotten worse over the last year. Issue NATIONAL KR DT NT SB Basrah Electricity Better 6 1% 22% 13% Electricity Worse 6 32% 8 61% 49% 68% 69% Security Better 6 71% 68% 68% 55% 55% Security Worse 24% 9% 49% 17% 19% 26% 25% Unemployment Better 8% 24% 6% 4% 4% 8% 7% Unemployment Worse 63% 61% 21% 73% 54% 63% 62% Government Corruption Better 24% 9% 4% 7% 3% Government Corruption Worse 62% 46% 55% 78% 6 65% 73% Wages and Salaries Better 36% 35% 31% 38% 36% 34% Wages and Salaries Worse 19% 17% 17% 28% Basic Services (Water, Sewage, etc.) Better 23% 6 4% 13% 25% 21% Basic Services (Water, Sewage, etc.) Worse 52% 25% 8 64% 41% 53% 64% 29

30 Has the situation regarding electricity gotten better, gotten worse or stayed the same over the last year? % 6 13% 6 8% 16% 47% 22% 4% Better Same Worse 42% 19% 9% Kurdistan () 72% Territories (13%) 27% 2% 53% () 4% 37% 28% (24%) 19% 2% 56% Belt 31% 53% Basrah Much Better Somewhat Better Same Much Worse Somewhat Worse 30

31 Has the situation regarding security gotten better, gotten worse or stayed the same over the last year? % 42% 43% 24% 53% 41% 46% 17% 15% Better Same Worse 32% 6% 3% Kurdistan () 33% 7% Territories (13%) 25% 26% 13% 6% () 15% 8% 9% (24%) 16% Belt 21% 13% Basrah Much Better Somewhat Better Same Much Worse Somewhat Worse 31

32 Has the situation regarding unemployment gotten better, gotten worse or stayed the same over the last year? % % 21% 58% 59% 46% 31% 27% 8% 4% Better Same Worse Kurdistan () 5% 23% Territories (13%) 4% 22% () 4% 38% 42% 28% (24%) 8% 45% Belt 31% 41% Basrah Much Better Somewhat Better Same Much Worse Somewhat Worse 32

33 Has the situation regarding government corruption gotten better, gotten worse or stayed the same over the last year? % % 23% 9% Better Same Worse 21% 28% 19% Kurdistan () 8% 32% 44% Territories (13%) 3% 15% 66% () 6% 27% 48% (24%) 21% 9% 45% Belt 3% 22% 59% Basrah Much Better Somewhat Better Same Much Worse Somewhat Worse 33

34 Has the situation regarding wages and salaries gotten better, gotten worse or stayed the same over the last year? 45% 45% 35% 35% 25% 15% 5% 36% 37% 31% 37% 19% 8% 5% Better Same Worse 25% 15% 5% 29% 36% 6% 9% 8% Kurdistan () 28% 3% 35% 17% Territories (13%) 3% 28% 17% () 33% 7% 36% 5% 9% (24%) 6% 8% Belt 32% 38% 2% 6% Basrah Much Better Somewhat Better Same Much Worse Somewhat Worse 34

35 Has the situation regarding water and sewage gotten better, gotten worse or stayed the same over the last year? % % 15% 38% 24% 5% Better Same Worse 15% 15% Kurdistan () 4% 61% Territories (13%) 23% 49% () 32% 21% 4% (24%) 16% 24% 5% 38% Belt 9% 25% Basrah Much Better Somewhat Better Same Much Worse Somewhat Worse 35

36 Do you agree that most of Iraq s oil revenues should go to the central government, not to the provinces? % % 22% 27% 45% Agree Disagree 19% 44% Kurdistan () 13% 26% Territories (13%) 48% () 65% 8% 6% (24%) 46% 9% 16% Belt 34% 19% Basrah Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Strongly Disagree Somewhat Disagree 36

37 Would you prefer that the provincial governments were stronger, or that the central government was stronger? % Provincial Provinces Government 45% Centrol Central Gov Government % 9% 6% Kurdistan () 22% 22% 15% 39% Territories (13%) 13% 17% 55% () 7% 8% 26% 56% (24%) 13% 17% 51% Belt 9% 22% 56% Basrah Strongly Prefer Somewhat Prefer Strongly Prefer Somewhat Prefer Provincial Government Central Government 37

38 ELECTIONS

39 On March 7, 2010, Iraq held elections for the Council of Representatives. Do you think that they were conducted in a free and fair manner? % 6 31% 34% 27% 38% 38% 29% 34% Free And Fair 13% Not Free And Fair Kurdistan () 21% 17% Territories (13%) 41% () 36% 13% 15% (24%) 32% Belt 8% Basrah Very Free And Fair Somewhat Free And Fair Not Very Free And Fair Not Free And Fair At All 39

40 Which factor had the greatest influence on your vote in the March 7, 2010 elections? Ethnicity Quality of Individual individual Candidates candidates of Each each party Party 24% 24% Performanceof of Incumbent 19% Religion 17% Platform of Party 8% Other 5% Refused Don t not Know know 2% 3% 5% 15% 25% 40

41 Which factor had the greatest influence on your vote in the March 7, 2010 elections: Sunni Arab Shia Arab Kurd Ethnicity Quality of Quality of candidate Candidate Performance of Incumbent 17% 23% 32% Ethnicity Quality of Quality of candidate Candidate Performance of Incumbent 17% 25% 21% Ethnicity Quality of Quality of Candidate candidate Performance of Incumbent 3% 9% 57% Religion 7% Religion 24% Religion Platform of Party 7% Platform of Party 6% Platform of Party Other 9% Other 4% Other 7% Refused 3% Refused 2% Refused 1% Don't Know 2% Don't Know 1% Don't Know

42 How confident are you that the parliament in Iraq will work well for the benefit of all Iraqi people? % 6 44% 21% 37% 34% 43% 32% 54% 42% 35% 29% 13% Confident 16% Not Confident 22% Kurdistan () 7% Territories (13%) 8% 13% 13% () 21% (24%) 13% Belt 23% Basrah Very Confident Somewhat Confident Not Very Confident Not Confident At All 42

43 The Iraqiya list, headed by Ayad Allawi, won the most seats in the election. Do you think that it is important that Allawi is part of the new government? % % % % 24% 76% 17% 32% 17% 52% Important 19% 13% 6% Not Important 41% 4% Kurdistan () 56% 6% Territories (13%) 4% () 59% 6% (24%) 38% 17% 8% Belt 59% 37% Basrah Very Important Somewhat Important Not Very Important Not Important At All 43

44 If a government were to be formed without the inclusion of Ayad Allawi, would you consider it legitimate? % 15% 16% Legitimate 56% 36% Not Legitimate % 33% Kurdistan () 16% 42% 26% Territories (13%) 5% 68% () 15% 22% (24%) 22% 28% 22% Belt 26% 41% Basrah Legitimate Somewhat Legitimate Not Very Legitimate Not Legitimate At All 44

45 International Republican Institute 1225 Eye Street N.W. Washington, DC Witherspoon Street Princeton, NJ