Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion

Transcription

1 Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion May 14-27, 2011 Williams and Associates Salem, Massachusetts

2 Survey Specifications The International Republican Institute (IRI) conducted a national survey of adult Tunisians (18+ years) from May 14-27, Data was collected in the field by a Tunisian-owned and operated marketing research firm, ELKA Consulting, under the supervision of David Williams from Williams and Associates of Salem, Massachusetts. Interviewing was collected using the in-person, face-to-face methodology by trained professional interviewers using a multistage stratification proportionate to population sample distribution, with random selection of households and respondents using the Kish method. Stratification was based on three stages: a proportional division among Tunisia s 24 governorates, proportional division of urban and rural categories, and proportional division by gender and age group according to the most up-to-date data from Tunisia s National Statistics Institute collected in July A total of 1,281 interviews were completed yielding an overall margin of error of ± 2.78 percent at the midrange of the 95 percent confidence level. The male-to-female ratio of respondents was 51 percent male to 49 percent female. The urban-to-rural ratio of respondents was 60 percent urban to 40 percent rural. The geographic and demographic distributions conform to the most recent generally accepted official statistics available. The sample was post-weighted to make it proportional to national representation by province. The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. This poll was made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under Award No. DFDA The opinions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. 2

3 How would you say that things are going in Tunisia these days, are things going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 90% 80% 70% 79% Mar-11 May-11 60% 50% 46% 46% 40% 30% 20% 14% 10% 7% 8% 0% Right Direction Wrong Direction DK/REF 3

4 How would you describe the current economic situation in Tunisia? Very Good Somewhat Good Somewhat Bad Very Bad DK/REF May-11 3% 2 45% 28% 3% Mar-11 4% 25% 46% 20% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 4

5 Has your household s financial situation gotten better or worse over the last year? Much Better Somewhat Better Somewhat Worse Much Worse Same DK/REF May-11 9% 24% 15% 15% 37% Mar-11 8% 27% 18% 18% 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Thinking ahead to next year, do you expect your household s financial situation to be better or worse? Much Better Somewhat Better Somewhat Worse Much Worse Same DK/REF May-11 28% 43% 4% 3% 1 1 Mar-11 35% 49% 4% 6% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 5

6 Which answer best describes your current economic situation? 50% 45% 40% 43% 43% Mar-11 May-11 35% 30% 3 28% 25% 20% 15% % 5% 0% I have trouble feeding myself and my family and buying even the most essential things for survival. I have enough means for survival, but I do not have enough money for extra things. I am able to afford things like new clothes and eating at restaurants, but not very often. 3% 5% I am able to afford things like new clothes and eating out and also support other members of my family who cannot. 3% DK/REF 6

7 Thinking about the current government, which of the following should be a top priority? (spontaneous responses >) Issue First Mention Second Mention Third Mention Total Security 36% 2 14% 7 Employment 27% 25% 20% 7 Development and Reform of the Economy 9% 19% 13% 4 Organize Elections 7% 3% 6% 16% Living Standards 6% 8% 6% 20% Social Reforms 3% 4% 9% 16% Corruption 5% Transparent Government Communication 6% Inculcate Good Values in the Government 0% 0% Regional Development 3% 5% Achieve the Goals of the Revolution 0% 0% Other 3% 16% 25% 44% Don t Know/Refused 0% 0% 7

8 Have you heard of the three commissions created to address the issues of corruption, political reform and human rights violations during the uprisings? Mar-11 May-11 Yes No Yes No 2 18% 78% 8 8

9 If you have heard of the commissions, how confident are you that each will work for the benefit of Tunisia? (n=1,011) Political Reform Commission Very Confident Somewhat Confident Not Very Confident Not Confident at All DK/REF May-11 26% 29% 1 23% 1 Mar-11 27% 29% 10% 17% 17% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Human Rights Commission Very Confident Somewhat Confident Not Very Confident Not Confident at All DK/REF May-11 26% 26% 14% 26% 9% Mar-11 27% 25% % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Corruption Commission Very Confident Somewhat Confident Not Very Confident Not Confident at All DK/REF May-11 24% 24% 13% 3 8% Mar % 14% 29% 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 9

10 Now, I am going to read you a list of different types of individuals. Please tell me if that individual s opinion has a strong influence, some influence or has no influence on you and your opinion on current events and politics. Mar-2011 Strong Influence Some Influence No Influence DK/REF May-2011 Strong Influence Some Influence No Influence DK/REF 100% 90% 4% 6% 6% 6% 100% 90% 5% 7% 8% 6% 80% 26% 80% 70% 60% 50% 58% 58% 17% 70% 60% 6 66% 63% 50% 50% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2 24% Religious Leader 24% 2 13% 14% Union Leader Political Party Leader 5 Head of Household 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 17% 17% Religious Leader 17% 20% 9% 9% Union Leader Political Party Leader 1 34% Head of Household 10

11 What is the single biggest problem facing Tunisia as a whole? (spontaneous responses >) Issue First Mention Second Mention Third Mention Total Internal Security 28% 2 13% 63% Unemployment 16% 2 19% 56% Economic and Financial Crisis 14% 17% 1 4 Violence, Delinquency and Vandalism 7% 1 Strikes and Sit-ins 3% 3% 3% 9% Terrorism 3% 6% Corruption 4% 8% Big Number of Political Parties 6% Political Circumstances 3% 0% 5% Elections 5% Libya 3% 3% 8% Don t Know/Refused 3% 0% 0% 3% 11

12 How much do you trust each of the following to protect your neighborhood? Mar-2011 May % 90% 80% 70% A Great Deal Fair Amount Only a Little Not at All DK/REF 5% 3% 1 8% 6% 14% 3 A Great Deal Fair Amount Only a Little Not at All DK/REF 100% 4% 90% 13% 1 18% 80% 8% 70% 9% 9% 60% 15% 60% 26% 50% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 80% 7 23% 30% 40% 30% 20% 10% 83% 69% 47% 0% National Army Citizen Security Groups National Police 0% National Army Citizen Security Groups National Police 12

13 Now I am going to read a list of issues and for each one please tell me whether you feel that the situation has gotten better, gotten worse or stayed the same over the last year. Much Better Somewhat Better Same Somewhat Worse Much Worse DK/REF Development of Independent Civil Society 25% 38% 19% 4% 1 Development of Independent Media 28% 48% 15% 4% 4% Living Standards 4% 15% % Health Care 1 27% 4 6% 7% 7% Constitutional Reform 8% 23% 36% 5% 26% Legal Reform % 3% 19% Direct Foreign Investment 5% 17% 14% 24% 27% 14% Government Corruption 13% 33% 26% 1 5% 1 Unemployment 17% 25% 2 33% Security 9% 38% 1 25% 15% Political Reform % 4% 4% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 13

14 How likely is the current government to address these issues facing Tunisia? Very Likely Somewhat Likely Not Very Likely Not Likely at All DK/REF May-11 27% 3 20% 17% 3% Mar-11 43% 39% 1 5% 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 14

15 Beji Kaid Sebsi, Prime Minister Ahmed Nejib Chebbi, Chairman of Progressive Democratic Party Mohamed Jegham, Founder of al- Watan Party Abdessalem Jerad, Secretary General, Tunisian General Labor Union (UGTT) Iyadh Ben Achour, Head of Political Reform Commission Ahmed Ibrahim, Secretary of Mouvement Ettajdid Rachid Ghanouchi, Leader of Ennahdha Kamel Marjane, Director of L'Initiative Party Mustapha Ben Jaafar, Secretary General, Democratic Forum for Labor and Liberties (FDTL) Sihem Ben Sedrine, Editor of Kalima Hamma Hammami, Tunisia Workers' Communist Party Abdelfattah Mourou, Co-Founder of Ennahdha Farhat Rajhi, Former Interior Minister Rachid Ammar, Chief of Staff of Tunisian Armed Forces I would like to ask you about your impressions of the following groups or people. Do you approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove or disapprove of the following? 80% Approve Disapprove Difference 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% 55% 74% % -20% 27% 14% 14% 36% -9% -10% -46% -24% -3 44% 25% 5% 7% -20% -37% 1-39% -27% 29% 15% 10% 4% -1-19% 2-13% -35% 28% 1-16% 46% 15% % 15

16 Which of the following statements best describes the role that political parties play in Tunisia? 1 19% I think political parties represent people's interests and seek solutions to benefit the country. I think political parties can play a positive role in Tunisia, but they have not done so yet. 43% 27% I think political parties are only interested in power and political gain. DK/REF 16

17 How likely are you to vote in the upcoming elections scheduled for later in the year? 100% 90% 80% 89% 86% 70% 60% Mar-11 May-11 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6% 6% 3% 4% 3% Very Likely Somewhat Likely Not Very Likely Not Likely at All DK/REF 17

18 If the elections for constituent assembly were held today, for whom would you vote? (spontaneous responses >) Abdelfattah Mourou Mustapha Ben Jaafar Rachid Ammar Moncef Marzouki Hamma Hammami Farhat Rajhi Beji Kaid Sebsi Rachid Ghannouchi Ahmed Nejib Chebbi Ennahdha REFUSED Other DO NOT KNOW 5% 7% 5% 7 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 18

19 International organizations play an increasingly important role in today s world. I am going to read you a list of some large international organizations and I would like you to tell me if you approve or disapprove of Tunisia supporting these organizations. Strongly Approve Approve Disapprove Strongly Disapprove DK/REF Union for the Mediterranean 43% 8% 14% 33% World Bank 59% 1 10% 18% Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries 4 8% 4% 18% 29% African Union 39% 10% 3% 25% 23% NATO 27% 7% 4% 36% 26% European Union 58% 14% 3% 10% 15% United Nations 5 14% 4% 16% 14% Arab League 49% 1 4% 23% 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 19

20 Where are you most likely to get your local news and information? (first mention, spontaneous response) Source First Mention Tunisian Television 59% Radio 13% Internet 1 Newspapers 8% Rumors at Public Places 3% SMS Mosque 0% Other 3% Don t Know/Refused 20

21 Which national newspaper do you read to get your news? (spontaneous, multiple response, n=677) Chourouk 50% Al Hadath Sabah 13% 13% La Presse 8% Al Beyen Al Anouar Other 4% DK/REF 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 21

22 To which national radio station do you listen to get your news? (spontaneous multiple responses, n=1,043) Mosaique FM Radio Nationale Jawhara FM Radio Jeunes Shems FM Radio Monastir Radio Sfax Radio Tatouine Radio Gasfa Radio Kef Zitouna FM Express FM RTCI Other DK/REF 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 5% 5% 1 26% 28% 0% 10% 20% 30% 22

23 Which national television station do you watch to to get your news? (spontaneous, multiple response n=1,206) Chaine Nationale 1 64% Hannibal TV 29% Nesma TV 6% DK/REF 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 23

24 What languages can you read? Other 9% 1 May-11 Mar-11 French 74% 73% English 35% 37% Arabic 9 96% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 24

25 Do you know what the difference is between a secular and a non-secular government? 23% Yes No 77% 25

26 What is the difference between a secular and non-secular government? (n=298) Other Secular Government is Based on Laws and Constitution Religious Government Applies Religion Secular Government is Non-Islamic Secular Government is Freedom of Opinion Secular Government Allows Multiple Religions 4% 3% Separation Between Government and Religion 87% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 26

27 As you may already know, in a secular government, the government s decisions on public policy and laws are made without any consideration to religion, some people refer to this as the separation of religion and state, it does not mean that the government is atheist just that no specific religious idea is promoted when making laws. Considering this definition of secularism, in general would you approve or disapprove of the government of Tunisia being secular? 6% Approve Secular Government 40% 54% Disapprove Secular Government DK/REF 27

28 Why do you approve of a secular government? (spontaneous response n=698) DK/REF 10% Other To Guarantee the Right of the Other Religions Secularism Complies with Tunisian Society For the Freedom of Social Society To Guarantee Economic Development, Mainly Tourism Religion is a Personal Choice Fear of Extremism 3% 3% 5% Islam is Our Religion and Not Our Politics To Guarantee Freedom, Democracy and Equality 27% 47% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 28

29 Why do you disapprove of a secular government? (spontaneous response n=496) DK/REF Other To Guarantee Equality Islam Guarantees Democracy Secularism Comes from the West Secular Governments Lack Discipline Islam Decreases Corruption To Guarantee Security and Stability To Protect Islam Most Tunisians are Muslims To Practice Islam Well I Prefer Laws Based on Islam Islam is Our Religion I like a Government Based on Religion Islam has Solutions for Every Sector 4% 6% 7% 7% 1 14% 16% 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 29

30 How important is it to you personally that Tunisia have a government that is secular or not secular? Very Important Important Not Very Important Not Important at All DK/REF 54% 2 5% 13% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 30

31 How important is it to you personally that Tunisia have a government that is secular or not secular? Approve Secular Government (n=691) Very Important Important Not Very Important Not Important at All DK/REF 59% 2 4% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Disapprove Secular Government (n=511) Very Important Important Not Very Important Not Important at All DK/REF 53% 24% 6% 1 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 31

32 Would you prefer to see more political parties or entities that are Islamist or secular in the constituent assembly? 3% 6% 8% Strongly Islamist Moderately Islamist 33% Moderately Secular 5 Strongly Secular DK/REF 32

33 Would you prefer to see more political parties or entities that are Islamist or secular in the constituent assembly? Approve Secular Government (n=691) Disapprove Secular Government (n=511) 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% Strongly Islamist 14% Strongly Islamist 3 Moderately Islamist Moderately Secular Strongly Secular Moderately Islamist Moderately Secular Strongly Secular 57% DK/REF 80% DK/REF 33

34 One of the proposed systems for the July 24* constituent assembly elections is a proportional, closed list. Are you familiar with this system? 19% Familiar 26% Somewhat Familiar Not Familiar 46% 9% DK/REF *At the time this question was asked the official election date was still July 24, Although the elections have since been postponed until October 23, 2011, the question is about the proportional closed list system. Because the question pertains to process and not the election date, the response is still valid for the October 23 elections. 34

35 A proportional, closed list system requires political parties to make lists of candidates to be elected, and seats get allocated to each party in proportion to the number of votes the party receives. The list of candidates is not seen by the voter. In essence, you vote for the party, not a candidate. In your opinion, do you support this system? Strongly Support Support Oppose Strongly Oppose DK/REF 35% 18% 5% 24% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 35

36 Why do you oppose a proportional closed list system? (spontaneous response n=452) DK/REF 30% Other It's a New System and Strange for Us It Will Create Disorder The List will be Varied and May Contain some RCD Members Inequality Between Parties 3% I Don't Trust Lists 6% I Want to Vote for a Person I Trust 57% 0% 20% 40% 60% 36

37 A women s quota of 50 percent is being proposed for the July 24* constituent assembly elections, every other name on the candidate list will be a woman. In your opinion, is this number: 3% 3% Too High The Right Amount Too Low DK/REF 4 53% In your opinion, what would be a more appropriate percentage of women to serve on the Constituent Assembly? (n=675) The average response (Mean) was for a 24% quota. *At the time this question was asked the official election date was still July 24, Although the elections have since been postponed until October 23, 2011, the question is about the women s quota in the constituent assembly. Because the question s meaning does not depend upon the election date, the response is still valid for the October 23 elections. Williams and Associates Salem, Massachusetts 37