Virginia 50+ Voters. January

Transcription

1 Virginia 50+ Voters January

2 Methodology AARP took a bipartisan approach to this research, using two firms, BSG and GSSG to conduct and advise on all phases of research design and execution. 800 telephone interviews were conducted from December 6-11, 2017 with registered voters ages 50+ in Virginia. At the 95% confidence level, the margin of error for the entire sample is ± 3.5% South Central/Valley Northern Richmond/ East Hampton Due to rounding, some percentages may not add up to 100%. For more information, contact S. Kathi Brown of AARP Research at skbrown@aarp.org. Inquiries from the Media should be directed to AARP s Media Relations Department at media@aarp.org. 2

3 Demographic Profile Of Virginia 50+ Voters Age Gender Race between between 70 or and and 69 older Female Male White African-American Native American Hispanic 4% 2% 15% 75% Education Household Income CSR 26% some college or technical school 28% high school or less 45% college grad or higher <$50k $50-100k $100k+ 32% 28% 26% City Suburb Rural 26% 37% 37% AARP Party ID Veteran (self or family) 40% are AARP members 31% Democrat 40% Independent 29% Republican 53% Yes 47% No 3

4 Political Landscape

5 Although Views Of Senator Warner Split Along Partisan Lines, Independents Are Overwhelmingly Favorable To Him Favorability of Senator Warner by subgroup Favorable Unsure/Don t know Unfavorable Overall <College Dem College Ind Rep Men Women <$50k $50k+ Richmond/East Central/ Valley South White Hampton Non-white Northern QVA1: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable view of Senator Mark Warner? 5

6 Democrats Confident Sen. Warner Cares About Them And Understands And Represents Them; Independents Less Sure He Understands Their Challenges Or Shares Views On Key Programs % who say this describes Sen. Warner well Overall Democrat Independent Republican Cares about people like you Understands the challenges facing older Americans Represents your views on Social Security and Medicare Q5,6,8: How well does this describe Senator Warner? 6

7 Mindset Of Virginia 50+ Voters

8 A Majority See U.S. Economy On The Rise, With Virginia s Economy Not Far Behind And With Very Few Seeing Any Backsliding Is US/Virginia economy getting stronger or weaker? Getting stronger Staying same/don't know Getting weaker US economy Virginia's economy Numbers similar across VA regions Q15,Q16: In general would you say [the U.S./Virginia s] economy is getting much stronger, getting somewhat stronger, staying the same, getting somewhat weaker or getting much weaker? 8

9 But These Gains Aren t Necessarily Reflected In Their Own Lives; Nearly As Many Are Struggling As Getting Ahead And Most Are Stagnant, Even Non-retirees Which describes your personal financial situation today? Getting ahead Staying the same Struggling to keep up Falling backward Overall Men Women <$40k $40-75k $75k+ Richmond/ East Central/ Valley South Hampton Northern Q17: Which of the following comes closest to describing your personal financial situation today? Getting ahead, staying where you are, struggling to keep up, or falling backward? *Base size <100, data for directional use only 9

10 Pres. Trump And Health Care Costs Are The Most Top-Of-Mind Fears Facing 50+ Voters Today What is the biggest fear you have facing you and your family today? Open end (showing answers >5%) Dems: 21% Donald Trump being president Health care costs Social Security/ Medicare not being available Nuclear war/north Korea Ind: 13% Rep: 5% Terrorism/war Financial hardship Taxes/Tax Bill Economy/jobs not available Q14: Please briefly describe the biggest fear you have facing you and your family today. Open end question; multiple responses accepted 10

11 Division Ranks As #1 Worry For Virginians, But Terrorism, Rising Prices, And Cost Of Health Care Aren t Far Behind On List Of Concerns How often do you worry about? Very often Somewhat often Total often How divided America and Americans have become #1 for Dem/Ind/Rep Threat of terrorism in our country today #2 for Reps Not being able to afford the health care you need #2 for Dems and Inds Pricies rising faster than your income Not being able to retire when you want to, for financial reasons : 55% often 65+: 16% often Having to take care of an aging parent or family member : 50% often 65+: 21% often Q22-Q27: Do you worry about this very often, somewhat often, from time to time or almost never? 11

12 These Struggles Leave Only 1-In Year-Olds And 1-In Very Confident About Retirement How confident are you that you will have enough money to live comfortably through your retirement? Very Confident Somewhat Confident Total Confident Overall White Non-white <$40k $40-75k $75k+ Q18: Overall how confident are you that you will have enough money to live comfortably throughout your retirement years? 12

13 Virginia Issues

14 Most Virginians 50+ See The Economy/Jobs As The Top Issue Facing The State, While Democrats Are Most Concerned With Health Care Costs What is the single most important issue facing Virginia today? Open end (showing answers >5%) Overall Democrat Independent Republican Economy/jobs Health care/cost of health care Taxes/tax bill Infrastructure Drugs/heroin epidemic Pres. Trump Q13: In your opinion, what is the single most important issue facing Virginia today? Open end question; multiple responses accepted 14

15 Voters Support Policy Solutions To Address Key Challenges Facing The State, With Services For Opioid Addiction In Particular Seeing Intense And Overwhelming Support Across Parties Support for proposals Paying an additional tax in order to improve and create new transportation infrastructure in Virginia Additional services and addiction treatment for those who suffer from opioid addiction Strongly support Somewhat support Total support Overall Overall Dem Dem Ind Ind Rep Rep QVA4-5: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal? 15

16 Senator Warner s Ratings On His Efforts To Address The Crisis Are Net Positive, But It s Driven By Democrats, While Many (Especially Independents) Don t Give Him Benefit Of The Doubt How well does this describe Senator Warner? Is doing a good job fighting the opioid crisis Overall Well Don't know Not Well fav/unfav to Warner fav/unfav fav/unfav Dem Ind Rep Q7: How well does this describe Senator Warner? 16

17 Voters From Across The Spectrum Prove Very Responsive To Warner s Care Initiatives If you knew Sen. Warner was prioritizing this issue would you be more or less favorable to him? Expanding telehealth and in-home care services for Medicare beneficiaries living with chronic illnesses Providing greater access to health and other benefits to people who do not have traditional full-time jobs Much more favorable Somewhat more favorable Total more favorable Overall Overall Dem Dem Ind Ind Rep Rep Very fav Very fav Sen. Warner Fav Smwt Fav Unfav Sen. Swmt fav Warner Unfav Fav Don't know Don't know QVA7-8: If you knew Sen. Warner was prioritizing this issue, would that make you much more favorable, somewhat more favorable somewhat less favorable, or much less favorable to him? 17

18 Senior Issues

19 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Older Virginians Are Largely Distrusting Of Congress When It Comes To Social Security Which concerns you more? Congress will make changes to Social Security that will harm seniors Congress won't make changes to Social Security and the program will go bankrupt Both Neither Overall AARP Members Dem Ind Rep Q30: Which of the following worries you more? 19

20 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS And The Same Holds True For Medicare Which concerns you more? Congress will make changes to Medicare that would hurt seniors and near-retirees Congress won't make any changes to Medicare and future retirees and our kids will pay the price Overall AARP Members Dem Ind Rep Q31: Which of the following worries you more? 20

21 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Virginians 50+ Far More Concerned Congress Will Hurt Medicare And Social Security Than They Are About Spending And Deficit Reduction When it comes to reducing the deficit, which concerns you more? Congress will go too far and cut too much from programs like Medicare and Social Security Congress won't do enough to cut federal spending and reduce the federal deficit Overall AARP Members Dem Ind Rep QVA9. When it comes to reducing the deficit, which of the following concerns you more? 21

22 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS On Reforms, Expansion To Dental Sees Strong Support, While Premium Support Is A Non-Starter Support for Medicare reforms Premium Support Medicare would no longer pay for health care services directly but instead would provide each senior with a set amount of money to help purchase an insurance plan in the private marketplace. Support Don't know Oppose Strongly Oppose Overall Overall Expanding Medicare to pay for dental care services Strongly Support 52 AARP Members AARP Members Dem Dem Ind Ind Rep Rep Q32: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal, which is sometimes called 'premium support? QVA5: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal? 22

23 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Majority Favorable Toward Medicaid Including Nearly Half Of Republicans, But Support Lacks Intensity Favorability toward Medicaid program Very favorable Somewhat favorable Total favorable Overall Dem Ind Rep <$40k $40-75k $75k+ Q33: Thinking about the Medicaid program generally, would you say you have a very favorable view of Medicaid, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable view of Medicaid? 23

24 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Overwhelming Majority In Opposition To A Block Grant System For The Program Which approach to Medicaid would you prefer? The current approach where states determine who qualifies for Medicaid and what services are covered within federal guidelines, and the states and federal government split the costs Change Medicaid so the federal government gives each state a set amount of money, known as a block grant, and the state decides how much state funding to give the program, who gets coverage and what services are covered Overall Dem Ind Rep Q34: Which approach to Medicaid would you prefer? 24

25 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Compromise Is Not A Dirty Word: Voters Support Bipartisan Agreement To Lower Health Care Premiums At A 4:1 Ratio Based on what you know today, do you support or oppose the bipartisan health care agreement made by Senators Alexander and Murray that provides government funding to lower premiums for middle class Americans? Support Don't know Oppose Overall Dem Ind Rep Men Women Q29: Based on what you know today, do you support or oppose the bipartisan health care agreement made by Senators Alexander and Murray that provides government funding to lower premiums for middle class Americans? 25

26 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Insurance and Drug Companies Seen As Top Reason For Rising Health Care Costs; Only Republicans Strongly Blame ACA What is most responsible for rising health care costs? Drug companies charging too much for medications and treatment 50 #1 for Inds and Reps #2 for Dems Health care insurance companies being too focused on profits and not peoples' health 44 #1 for Dems, #2 for Inds Doctors, hospitals, and other providers ordering unnecessary treatments and over-testing 27 The Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare 22 #2 for Reps An aging U.S. population 13 Medical malpractice lawsuits 13 Q28: What do you think is most responsible for rising health care costs in this country? You may select up to two things. 26

27 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Older Virginians Blame High Drug Prices On Pharmaceutical Companies' Unethical Pricing Tactics Which comes closest to your own opinion? Prices for prescription drugs are the result of a pharmaceutical corporation monopoly that controls the prices Prices for prescription drugs are determined on a free, open market that is subject to the laws of supply and demand Overall Dem Ind Rep Men Women Q41: Which of the following comes closest to your own opinion? 27

28 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS To Address This, Older Voters Strongly Support An Array Of Reforms; Nearly 3-In-4 Republicans Support Capping Drug Company Profits Support for prescription drug reform proposals Allow Medicare to negotiate with drug companies for lower prices Strongly support Somewhat support Total support Total support among... Dem Ind Rep Allow lower cost generic drugs to come to the prescription drug market faster Ensure transparency in drug pricing Close loopholes that allow pharmaceutical companies to keep prices high Close loopholes that allow drug companies to prevent consumers from accessing lower priced generic drugs Limit the profits that drug companies can make on medications Q35-40: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal? 28

29 Constituent Outreach

30 Over 60% of 50+ Voters Receiving Some Communication From The Senator But More, Especially In The Mail And At Town Halls, Desired Which ways have you received info from Sen. Warner? Which would you most prefer? Currently receive Would prefer Mail sent to your home Updates posted on Facebook or other social media Updates posted to the Senator's website Events or town halls the Senator holds in your community 6 21 None of the above Q10: In which of the following ways have you received news or information from Senator Mark Warner? Multiple responses accepted Q11: And in which of the following ways would you most like to receive news or information from Senator Mark Warner? Multiple responses accepted 30

31 Cable And Local TV News Dominate Sources Of Information; But Year Olds Readily Reachable Through Radio And Online As Well % who rely on this as source of news/info on politics and government % who do this a few times a week Cable television news Local television news Newspapers and magazines Radio Your family and friends The organizations you belong to Facebook Watch political news on cable television channels Watch political news on local television channels Read political news in print Read political news online Listen to political news on the radio Log on to Facebook Twitter 4 11 Read Twitter 4 12 Q42: Which of the following sources do you rely on to obtain news and information about political issues and government? Please tell me all that apply. Multiple responses accepted. Q43: Which of the following do you do at least a few times a week? Please tell me all that apply. Multiple responses accepted. 31