Alaska 50+ Voters. January

Transcription

1 Alaska 50+ Voters January

2 Methodology AARP took a bipartisan approach to this research, using two firms, BSG and GSSG to conduct and advise on all phases of research design and execution. 800 telephone interviews were conducted from December 6-11, 2017 with registered voters ages 50+ in Alaska. At the 95% confidence level, the margin of error for the entire sample is ± 3.5% Due to rounding, some percentages may not add up to 100%. For more information, contact S. Kathi Brown of AARP Research at skbrown@aarp.org. Inquiries from the Media should be directed to AARP s Media Relations Department at media@aarp.org. Anchorage: 39% Gulf Coast + Southeast: 20% Mat-Su: 14% North + Rural: 14% Other/Unorganized: 13% 2

3 Demographic Profile Of Alaska 50+ Voters Age Gender Race Male between between 70 or 50 and and 69 older Female White American Indian/ AK Native African-American Hispanic 10% 2% 2% 79% Education 37% some college or technical school 20% high school or less 42% college grad or higher Household Income <$50k 24% $50-100k 32% $100k+ 32% CSR City Suburb Rural 16% 43% 40% AARP Party ID Veteran (self or family) 47% are AARP members 14% Democrat 58% Independent 28% Republican 54% Yes 46% No 3

4 Political Landscape

5 Senator Murkowski s Favorability With 50+ Voters: Little Partisan Divide In Views Favorability of Senator Murkowski by subgroup Favorable Unsure/Don t know Unfavorable Overall White Dem Non-white Ind <College Rep College Men Women Anchorage Mat- Su* Coast + Southeast North + Rural Rest of State QAK1: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable view of Senator Lisa Murkowski? *Base size <100, data for directional use only 5

6 While Voters On The Left And Right Are More Critical, A Plurality See Murkowski As An Independent Senator Which comes closest to your opinion? Senator Lisa Murkowski has compromised too often with liberal Democrats in the Senate on things that will harm Alaska families Senator Lisa Murkowski has been an independent senator, working on both sides of the aisle to fight for the best interest of Alaska families Senator Lisa Murkowski has sided too often with conservative Republicans in the Senate on things that will harm Alaska families Don t know Overall fav/unfav to Murkowski fav/unfav fav/unfav Dem Ind Rep Q12: Which of the following comes closest to your opinion? 6

7 Most Say Murkowski Understands Challenges Facing 50+ Voters Even Among Democrats; Though Views Dip When It Comes To SS And Medicare How well does this describe Sen. Murkowski? (% total well) Overall Democrat Independent Republican Among those who say this describes Murkowski Understands the challenges facing older Americans Well fav/unfav Not well fav/unfav Cares about people like you fav/unfav fav/unfav Represents your views on Social Security and Medicare fav/unfav fav/unfav Q5,6,8: How well does this describe Senator Murkowski? 7

8 Mindset Of Alaska 50+ Voters

9 While Many Say US Economy Is Improving, Alaska s Economy Is Going In Opposite Direction Is US/Alaska economy getting stronger or weaker? Getting stronger Staying same/don't know Getting weaker US economy Alaska's economy Q15,Q16: In general would you say [the U.S./Alaska s] economy is getting much stronger, getting somewhat stronger, staying the same, getting somewhat weaker or getting much weaker? 9

10 And Unsurprisingly, This Means Many Feeling Stagnant About Their Own Personal Finances; Very Few Are Getting Ahead Which describes your personal financial situation today? Getting ahead Staying the same Struggling to keep up Falling backward Matanuska- Susitna* Overall Dem Ind Rep <$40k $40-75k $75k+ Anchorage Mat-Su Coast+SE N+Rural Other* Q17: Which of the following comes closest to describing your personal financial situation today? Getting ahead, staying where you are, struggling to keep up, or falling backward? *Base size <100, data for directional use only 10

11 On An Open-Ended Basis, Health Care Cost Worries Are Most Top-Of-Mind For 50+ Voters What is the biggest fear you have facing you and your family today? Open end (showing answers >6%) Health care costs 15 Economy/jobs not available 13 Donald Trump being president 10 Taxes/tax bill 9 Social Security/Medicare not being available 8 Nuclear war/north Korea 7 Q14: Please briefly describe the biggest fear you have facing you and your family today. Open end question; multiple responses accepted 11

12 Political Divide Ranks As #1 Worry For Alaskans By Far, But Roughly Half Still Worry Often About Rising Prices, Terrorism And Affordable Health Care How often do you worry about? Very often Somewhat often Total often Q26. How divided America and Americans have become Q22. Prices rising faster than your income Q27. The threat of terrorism in our country today Driven by Reps (38/70) Q23. Not being able to afford the health care you need Q24. Having to take care of an aging parent or family member Q25. Not being able to retire when you want to, for financial reasons Q22-Q27: Do you worry about this very often, somewhat often, from time to time or almost never? 12

13 Despite Lack Of Confidence In State s Economy, Most Older Alaskans Are Feeling Confident About Their Retirement Years, Though Intensity Is Low How confident are you that you will have enough money to live comfortably through your retirement? Very confident Somewhat confident Total confident Overall Dem Ind Rep White Non-white <$40k $40-75k $75k+ Q18: Overall how confident are you that you will have enough money to live comfortably throughout your retirement years? 13

14 Alaska Issues

15 Voters Across Partisan Lines See The Economy And Jobs As Alaska s Greatest Issue Today What is the single most important issue facing Alaska today? Open end (showing answers >6%) Overall Democrat Independent Republican Economy/jobs Budgets/finances Health care/costs Energy/fracking Environment/ climate change Drugs/ heroin epidemic Q13: In your opinion, what is the single most important issue facing Alaska today? Open end question; multiple responses accepted 15

16 Proposals Aimed At Expanding Internet/Tech And Fighting Opioid Addiction Get Wide Support; Infrastructure Tax Lacks Bipartisan Consensus Do you support or oppose this proposal? Strongly support Somewhat support Total support Expanding access to internet and technology in Alaska High support across all parties Providing additional services and addiction treatment for those who suffer from opioid addiction Paying an additional tax in order to improve and create new transportation infrastructure in Alaska % among Dems 38% among Reps QAK4,5,7: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal? 16

17 Senator Murkowski Gets Net Positive Ratings On Her Efforts On Opioids How well does this describe Senator Murkowski? Is doing a good job fighting the opioid crisis Well Don't know Not well Overall fav/unfav to Murkowski fav/unfav to Murkowski Dem Ind Rep Q7: How well does this describe Senator Murkowski? 17

18 On Alaska s Deficit, A Plurality Prefers A New Income Tax Over Tapping Into PFD; There s Less Consensus Among Reps Alaska is currently facing a budget deficit of nearly $3 billion. In order to close the hole in Alaska's budget, which of the following would you prefer? Creating a new personal income tax Continuing to use revenues from the state's savings account Using a portion of the Permanent Fund earnings Don t know Overall Dem Ind Rep QAK10: Alaska is currently facing a budget deficit of nearly $3 billion. In order to close the hole in Alaska's budget, which of the following would you prefer? 18

19 On Murkowski s Priorities, Voters Are Largely In Line With Increasing Federal Resources To The State, But Drilling In Arctic Refuge Extremely Polarizing If you knew Sen. Murkowski was prioritizing this issue would you be more or less favorable to her? Increasing the amount of federal resources sent to Alaska Opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, or ANWR, to drilling Overall 32 Much more favorable Somewhat more favorable Total more favorable 75 Overall Dem Dem % less fav Ind Ind % less fav Rep Rep Sen. Murkowski Fav Very fav Smwt fav Unfav Sen. Murkowski Fav Very fav Swmt fav Unfav QAK8-9: Now I m going to read you a few issues Senator Lisa Murkowski could focus on. For each, please tell me whether it makes you more or less favorable to her. 19

20 Senior Issues

21 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS When It Comes To Social Security, Dems More Concerned About What Congress Will Do While Reps More Concerned About What It Won t Which concerns you more? Congress will make changes to Social Security that will harm seniors Overall Congress won't make changes to Social Security and the program will go bankrupt fav/unfav to Murkowski fav/unfav to Murkowski AARP Members Dem Ind Rep Q30: Which of the following worries you more? 21

22 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS The Same Holds True For Medicare, Though There s Greater Concern Over What Congress Will Do Overall On This Issue Which concerns you more? Congress will make changes to Medicare that would hurt seniors and near-retirees Overall Congress won't make any changes to Medicare and future retirees and our kids will pay the price fav/unfav to Murkowski fav/unfav to Murkowski AARP Members Dem Ind Rep Q31: Which of the following worries you more? 22

23 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS On Reforms, Expansion To Dental Sees Strong Support, While Premium Support Is A Non-Starter Do you support or oppose? Premium Support Medicare would no longer pay for health care services directly but instead would provide each senior with a set amount of money to help purchase an insurance plan in the private marketplace. Support Don't know Oppose Strongly Oppose Overall Overall 75 Expanding Medicare to pay for dental care services 20 Strongly Support 47 AARP Members AARP Members Dem Dem Ind Ind Rep Rep Q32: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal, which is sometimes called 'premium support? QAK6: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal? 23

24 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Majority Of Supporters Favorable Toward Medicaid, Even Republicans But Support Lacks Intensity For Non-Dems Favorability toward Medicaid program 91 Very favorable Somewhat favorable Total favorable Overall Dem Ind Rep Q33: Thinking about the Medicaid program generally, would you say you have a very favorable view of Medicaid, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable view of Medicaid? 24

25 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Dems And Inds Show Strong Preference For Current Approach, While Plurality Of Reps Prefer Change To Block Grant System Which approach to Medicaid would you prefer? The current approach where states determine who qualifies for Medicaid and what services are covered within federal guidelines, and the states and federal government split the costs Change Medicaid so the federal government gives each state a set amount of money, known as a block grant, and the state decides how much state funding to give the program, who gets coverage and what services are covered Overall Dem Ind Rep Q34: Which approach to Medicaid would you prefer? 25

26 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Compromise Is Not A Dirty Word: Voters Support Bipartisan Agreement To Lower Health Care Premiums At More Than 2:1 Margin fav/unfav to Murkowski Based on what you know today, do you support or oppose the bipartisan health care agreement made by Senators Alexander and Murray that provides government funding to lower premiums for middle class Americans? 18 9 Support Don't know Oppose fav/unfav to Murkowski Overall Dem Ind Rep Men Women Q29: Based on what you know today, do you support or oppose the bipartisan health care agreement made by Senators Alexander and Murray that provides government funding to lower premiums for middle class Americans? 26

27 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Insurance and Drug Companies Seen As Top Reason For Rising Health Care Costs Only Republicans Blame ACA What is most responsible for rising health care costs? Drug companies charging too much for medications and treatment Health care insurance companies being too focused on profits and not peoples' health #1 for Inds #1 for Dems, Inds (tied with above) The Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare 27 #1 for Reps Doctors, hospitals, and other providers ordering unnecessary treatments and over-testing 21 Medical malpractice lawsuits 13 An aging U.S. population 12 Q28: What do you think is most responsible for rising health care costs in this country? You may select up to two things. 27

28 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Older Alaskans Are Largely Dissatisfied With Prescription Drug Monopoly; Pharmaceutical Companies And Their Pricing Tactics Are Largely To Blame Which comes closest to your own opinion? Prices for prescription drugs are the result of a pharmaceutical corporation monopoly that controls the prices Prices for prescription drugs are determined on a free, open market that is subject to the laws of supply and demand Overall Dem Ind Rep Men Women Q41: Which of the following comes closest to your own opinion? 28

29 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS To Address This, Older Voters Strongly Support An Array Of Reforms; Even 2-in-3 Republicans Support Capping Drug Company Profits Do you support or oppose this proposal? Allow Medicare to negotiate with drug companies for lower prices Strongly support Somewhat support Total support Total support among... Dem Ind Rep Ensure transparency in drug pricing Allow lower cost generic drugs to come to the prescription drug market faster Close loopholes that allow pharmaceutical companies to keep prices high Close loopholes that allow drug companies to prevent consumers from accessing lower priced generic drugs Limit the profits that drug companies can make on medications Q35-40: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal? 29

30 Constituent Outreach

31 Most Communication With Constituents Is Received Via Mail; And While This Method Is Largely Preferred, A Significant Number Would Also Like More Town Halls Which ways have you received info from Sen. Murkowski? Which would you most prefer? Currently receive Would prefer Mail sent to your home : 36% 65+: 42% Updates posted on Facebook or other social media Updates posted to the Senator's website Events or town halls the Senator holds in your community None of the above Q10: In which of the following ways have you received news or information from Senator Lisa Murkowski? Multiple responses accepted Q11: And in which of the following ways would you most like to receive news or information from Senator Lisa Murkowski? Multiple responses accepted 31

32 TV & Newspapers Are Biggest Sources Of Political/Government News; Family, Friends And Organizations More Important For Voters 50+ Than Social Media Which do you rely for news/info on political issues and government? Which do you do at least a few times a week? Local television news 66 Watch political news on cable television channels 65 Cable television news Newspapers and magazines Radio Your family and friends Watch political news on local television channels Read political news online Read political news in print The organizations you belong to 32 Listen to political news on the radio 53 Facebook 24 Log on to Facebook 40 Twitter 7 Read Twitter 8 Q42: Which of the following sources do you rely on to obtain news and information about political issues and government? Please tell me all that apply. Multiple responses accepted. Q43: Which of the following do you do at least a few times a week? Please tell me all that apply. Multiple responses accepted. 32