Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine. August 21 September 6, 2012

Transcription

1 Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine August September, 0 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization Rating Group Ukraine with funding from the National Endowment for Democracy

2 Methodology The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/Gallup on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine. The sample consisted of,000 permanent residents of Ukraine older than the age of 8 and eligible to vote (,00 representative sample for Ukraine and additional 00 residents of Kyiv) and is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion. The sample design was a multi-stage random sample: Stage one: Ukraine is divided into 7 official administrative regions ( regions of Ukraine, Kyiv and Sevastopol). All of Ukraine was surveyed. Stage two: Selection of settlements - towns and villages. Towns were divided into subtypes according to the size of population (city more than one million, 00, ,000, 00,000-99,000, 0,000-99,000, 0,000 and less, village) Settlements were selected randomly. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of the population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region. Stage three: At this stage, additional sampling was done for Kyiv in order to have representative analysis of the city. The additional sample consisted of 00 respondents and was based on the principles described above. Altogether, the survey was conducted in settlements, including rural and 7 urban ones. Stage four: primary sampling units were described. The closest birthday rule was used for selection of the respondent. The households were selected using the random route method. Data were collected on August September 0, 0 through face-to-face interviews with the respondents. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus. percent for the main sample and does not exceed plus or minus. percent for the additional sample of Kyiv. Response rate was 9 percent. IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

3 MOOD OF UKRAINE IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

4 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction? August May 0 0 March 0 7 November 0 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 80% 00% Right direction Wrong direction DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

5 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction? West 7 Center 0 South 9 East 9 8 Donbas 7 8 Kyiv 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 80% 00% Right direction Wrong direction DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

6 Over the last months, how has the financial situation of your household changed? August May March November % 0% 0% 0% 80% 00% Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

7 Over the last months, how has the financial situation of your household changed? (Breakdown by region) West Center 8 South East 8 Donbas Kyiv % 0% 0% 0% 80% 00% Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 7

8 In the next months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine to change? August 0 7 May 0 March 0 8 Nov % 0% 0% 0% 80% 00% Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 8

9 In the next months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine to change? (Breakdown by region) West 8 9 Center South 8 East Donbas 8 Kyiv 9 8 0% 0% 0% 0% 80% 00% Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know, no answer IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 9

10 ISSUES IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 0

11 Do you think it is acceptable or not if some groups of people use the following methods of protests? How acceptable is each of these forms? Collecting signatures for petition, letter 7 Legal demonstrations 7 Legal strikes 9 8 Boycott 7 9 Demonstrations without permission 8 8 Strikes without permission 9 Blocking of major roads 9 9 Occupation of buildings or enterprises 7 0 Acceptable Not acceptable No opinion IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

12 If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, who should it be with? August 0 0 May March 0 7 November The European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

13 If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, who should it be with? (Breakdown by region) West 8 7 Center South East 7 Donbas 8 Kyiv The European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

14 How would you evaluate your attitude towards the following entities? Russia 9 Poland European Union 0 USA Warm Neutral Cold DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

15 Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for Ukraine? All mentioned issues Unemployment Low industry production Control over price growth Corruption within the state bodies Social protection for poor Political instability Crime Government incompetence Delay in salary/pension payments Hryvnia devaluation Russian language status Relations with Russia Rights to land ownership Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water Russian Black Sea Navy presence Other DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

16 Most important problems for Ukraine 0 Unemployment Corruption within the state bodies Low industry production IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

17 Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for you personally? Control over price growth Unemployment Social protection for poor Corruption within the state bodies Low industry production Delay in salary/pension payments Crime Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water Hryvnia devaluation Russian language status Rights to land ownership Political instability Government incompetence Relations with Russia Russian Black Sea Navy presence Other DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 7

18 Most important problems for residents of Ukraine 70 Control over price growth Unemployment Social protection for poor IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

19 POLITICS IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 9

20 Do you intend to vote in the parliamentary elections in 0? August 0 May March Nov Definitely yes Probably Probably no Definitely no DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 0

21 Do you intend to vote in the parliamentary elections in 0? (Breakdown by region) West 9 9 Center South 0 East 0 9 Donbas 7 8 Kyiv 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 70% 80% 90% 00% Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

22 In your opinion, has the situation in the following areas improved or worsened during last two years? Economy of Ukraine Situation with languages Salary/pension payments Relations with Russia Social protection Political stability 7 8 Government competence 9 0 Stability of hryvnia 8 8 Employment 0 Fight against corruption 9 8 European integration of Ukraine 0 Fight against criminality Healthcare Small and medium business 9 Agriculture 7 Housing and communal services 0 9 Prices 7 Rights to land ownership Improved Stayed the same Worsened DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

23 How do you think the 0 parliamentary elections will be? August May March 0 9 Nov Absolutely free and fair Somewhat free and fair Somewhat not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

24 How do you think the 0 parliamentary elections will be? (Breakdown by region) West Center 7 South 9 8 East Donbas 8 Kyiv 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 70% 80% 90% 00% Absolutely free and fair Somewhat free and fair Somewhat not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

25 As of today, have you seen any facts which demonstrate that the 0 parliamentary election process is already not free and fair? DK/NA % Yes 9% No 80% IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

26 As of today have you seen some facts which demonstrate that the 0 parliamentary election process is already not free and fair? (Breakdown by region) West 7 Center 9 8 South 7 East 8 80 Donbas 89 Kyiv % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 70% 80% 90% 00% Yes No DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

27 What kinds of violation have you already seen? (N=8) Bribery of voters Abuse of administrative resource Unequal access to mass media Misuse of the voters list 0 Unfair competition 7 Other 0. DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 7

28 What kinds of violation have you already seen? (Kyiv, N=8) Bribery of voters 7 Unequal access to mass media Misuse of the voters list Abuse of administrative resource 0 Unfair competition 0 Other IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 8

29 Do you expect falsification or irregularities during the 0 parliamentary election process? DK/NA % No % Yes % IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 9

30 Do you expect falsification or irregularities during the 0 parliamentary election process? (Breakdown by region) West 7 Center 7 South 7 7 East Donbas Kyiv 9 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 70% 80% 90% 00% Yes No DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 0

31 What kinds of violation do you expect? (N=0) Bribery of voters 9 Falsifications during votes calculation at the polling station 9 Misuse of the voters list Falsifications during voting process 0 Abuse of administrative resource Falsifications during votes calculation at the Central Election Commission 7 Unfair competition Unequal access to mass media Other DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

32 If you felt that the elections were not free and fair or the results announced were not reflecting the real outcome, will you participate in protest actions to protect your right for free and fair elections? DK/NA 7% Definitely will take part % Probably will take part 7% Definitely will not take part 8% Probably will not take part % IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

33 If you felt that the elections were not free and fair or the results announced were not reflecting the real outcome, will you participate in protest actions to protect your right for free and fair elections? (Breakdown by region) West 7 8 Center South 0 9 East 9 Donbas 9 9 Kyiv 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 70% 80% 90% 00% Definitely will take part Probably will take part Probably will not take part Definitely will not take part DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

34 Which policy measures should be implemented by the newly elected Parliament first of all? Please name the five most important policy measures. (All mentioned) Reform the health care system 9 Provide unrestricted access to education Eliminate corruption in education Improve environmental protection Provide more rights for the citizens to influence policy making Introduce the right of "public veto" Decentralize the state Simplify taxes Introduce targeted social support Replace judges and officials based on their evaluation Authorize the right of citizens to submit bills to Parliament Reform supervisory bodies to facilitate doing business Make it possible for the citizens to choose police authorities 7 7 Provide equal rights and opportunities for men and women 8 None DK/NA 0 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

35 MASS MEDIA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

36 How many times per week do you access the Internet? August May March 0 Nov Every day - times per week - times per week - times per week Less often Never DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

37 How many times per week do you access the Internet? (Breakdown by region) West Center South 7 East Donbas 8 Kyiv 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 70% 80% 90% 00% Every day - times per week - times per week - times per week Less often Never DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 7

38 What Internet sites do you use for getting political news/information? Please name up to threemost important for you. (N=8) google.com.ua ukr.net mail.ru korrespondent.net vk.com tsn.ua yandex.ua facebook.com.ua pravda.com.ua rambler.ru odnoklassniki.ru Opera.com youtube.com unian.ua bigmir.net zik.ua ovosti.net meta.ua inter.ua Other Not interested in political news and information DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 8

39 SELF-PERCEIVED SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 9

40 What can you say about the financial status of your family? August May March 0 7 Nov 0 0 Need to save money for food Enough money for food but it is necessary to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes Enough money for food and necessary clothes and shoes. It is necessary to save or borrow money for such purchases as a good suit, a mobile phone or a vacuum cleaner Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and other purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchasing more expensive things (such as a laundry machine or a refrigerator) Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and expensive purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchases like a car or an apartment I can buy anything at any time DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 0

41 What can you say about the financial status of your family? (Breakdown by region) West 9 7 Center 9 0. South East 9 Donbas Kyiv Need to save money for food Enough money for food but it is necessary to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes Enough money for food and necessary clothes and shoes. It is necessary to save or borrow money for such purchases as a good suit, a mobile phone or a vacuum cleaner Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and other purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchasing more expensive things (such as a laundry machine or a refrigerator) Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and expensive purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchases like a car or an apartment I can buy anything at any time DK/NA IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

42 SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

43 Gender Ukraine Kyiv Female Male Age groups 7 7 Ukraine Kyiv IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

44 Education Ukraine Kyiv University, higher Non-complete higher Vocational secondary General secondary Non-complete secondary Religion 9 DK/NA Atheist Other Believe in God but don't belong to any religion 0 Greek Catholic 0 Ukraine Kyiv Orthodox IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

45 Sector of employment Don't work Public nongovernment sector State sector 0 0 Private sector 0 Ukraine Kyiv Occupation Ukraine Kyiv Other Unemployed Housewife Student Pensioner Higher and medium level executive White collar Farmer Blue collar IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0

46 00 80 Ethnicity 8 Other Russian Ukrainian 0 Ukraine Kyiv Language usually spoken at home 7 7 Other Ukrainian and Russian equally Russian Ukrainian 0 Ukraine IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 Kyiv

47 00 0. Membership in a political party or NGO Member of NGO Member of a party None 0 Ukraine Kyiv Chernivtsi, Ivano- Frankivsk, Khmelnytsky, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Volyn and Zakarpattia oblasts Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia and Zhitomyr oblasts 0 REGIONS Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa oblasts and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhia oblasts 8 Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts 0 West Ukraine Center Ukraine South Ukraine East Ukraine Donbas IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, August-September 0 7