PROTECTION of DOMESTIC AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION,

Transcription

1 PROTECTION of DOMESTIC AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, YES OR NO? Research areas: Bosanko podrinjski Canton Hercegovačko neretvanski Canton Tuzlansko podrinjski Canton Zeničko dobojski Canton Posavski Canton Unsko sanski Canton Srednje bosanski Canton Sarajevski Canton Herceg bosanska Canton Zapadno hercegovački Canton Doboj municipality Srpsko Sarajevo municipality Zvornik municipality Banja Luka municipality Brčko district Zvornik municipality Mrkonjić Grad municipality Trebinje municipality Foča municipality Bijeljina municipality January, 2004 Aldi u.g. keeps all author rights. Aldi u.g. does not allow copying, use or publishing of this document without special approvaql or declaring the source of data.

2 INTRODUCTIONAL NOTES BACKGROUND OF PROBLEM One of the biggest problems that Bosnian economy is being facing with lately is lack of means for financing larger exporting and domestic projects with multiplied impact on development of medum and small business, particularly in agricultural production. Lack of financing means for such projects is mostly determined by: high rate of political and legal risk, which on teh other side influences price of money and «unreasonable» policy of banking sector, then lack of systematic orientation of authorities and governmental institutions in context of subsidize and instigation of those economy sectors that present a competitive advantage of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Such problems that are in function of domestic production erosion are increased by agreements on free trade with countries from the region. It is true that Bosnia and Herzegovina on that way succeeded to provide market of cca 20 millions inhabitants, but at the same time: a market that possesses systematic way of domestic production protection (systems of veterinary and fitopatological measures, etc.) and a market that presents one united refernce group regrading the attitude towards products of national origin. From the other side Bosnia and Herzegovina does not have a function of economic patriotism, which could present factor of decision for buying or apstinention from buying of some goods, and it also does not have system of market institutions that might provide more agressive appearance abroad and larger market part of our companies on those markets. It is true that all agreements which were signed and had character of Agreement on Free Trade were based on WTO principles. By their character they were asymetric (such type of agreements on free trade is very often in cases of agreements between developed and less developed countries). But, market is not a perfect mechanism in all areas and in all situations, so in this case it is definitelly not the only mechanism for regulation of flows of total social reproduction as it was or it is official opinion of the Ministers' Council. 2

3 INTRODUCTIONAL NOTES In sectors and situations where market or agreements on free trade were inefficent mechanism the Ministers' Council as signatory of such agreements should complementary act by its directing mechanism that means to find adequate systems and protection measures for domestic agricultural production because that is actually an economic fact which provides competitive advantage for products originating from different countries and which are present on our market. Agreements on free trade with neighbouring countries anticipate potential incorporation of such measures and protection systems into agreements but on principle of consultation and in case «If import of products originating from market from one contracting party causes serious disorders on market of the other contracting party, the damaged party will imediatelly start negotiations in order to find an adequate solution. While expecting the solution the damaged party may undertake measuers which it considers as necessary ones.» In this moment it is impossible to answer does multiplication of state, entity, cantonaql institutions then international community institutions prevents building or designing of adequate measures and answers or there is actually something else in the question. It is evident that postponing of zero customs rate excercising for 3 motnhs presents actually a naive attempt to transfrom earlier mentioned clause of agrement on free trade into economic life of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The following lines with their specifics show attitudes of public towards agreements on free trade with the neighbouring countries and towards position of Bosnia and Herzegovina within them. 3

4 INTRODUCTIONAL NOTES Will those and other similar attitudes or actions and activities be in function of alarming institutions of BiH system regarding this issue is to be seen. However, problem is that tomorrow may alraedy be late. Team for analysis making ALDI Agency for Local Development Initiatives Goražde Protection of domestic agricultural production, yes ro no'? Tel: Fax: E mail : aldi@aldi.ba Internet : Goražde, January 29,

5 METHODOLOGIC APPROACH TO RESEARCH SUBJECT of the RESEARCH Subject of the research was determining of attitudes of Bosnia and Herzegovina citizens about: protection of domestic agricultural production, channels and level of how much citizens are informed on agreements on free trade with neighbouring countries and concrete forms of support to domestic agricultural production. The research included all deviations in accordance with offered types of answers regarding paerticular subject of the research. APPROACHING METHOD Approaching method comprises three constitutional parts: 1). Determination of the targeted group that is determination of those population categories that may be included into research depending on their age; 2). Determination of size of sample that is, determination of teh part of main group which is representative in context of characteristics and values of teh whole main group; THE TARGETED GROUP 3). Defining of approaching methods that is defining of teh main steps in practical implementation of teh ersearch subject. TYPE OF SAMPLE SIZE OF SAMPLE The targeted group for this research were adult people, citiezns of Bosnia and Herzegovina. For this research there was accidental stratified sample chosen, which at the same time means that area of teh entire Bosnia and Herzegovina was divided into geographic stratums and it was known in advance what was the possibility that individual member of the main group could selected into sample. Total size of sample was 300 people. In this case it should consider that: 1). Size of the main group does not directly influence the size of sample, 2). Size of sample depends on homogenity of teh main group regarding the researched problem or issue, 5

6 GEOGRAPHICAL AREA Since the subject of research is closely connected with economic and political context of the organisation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the segment of researching activities should be positioned in that context as well. That means that whole Bosnia and Herzegovina was included into subject of teh research in teh way as it was described under methodology of selection of teh targeted beneficiaries. Around 60% of the polled people permanently residing in urban area while the rest residing in rural areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina. SELECTION OF POLLED PEOPLE Selection of peple for sample in this case was done on basis of characteristics of telephone number of each polled person (method of sum). The main source of information on people that were included into the research was telephone book (on-line version) at the following addresses: 1). for area of the F BIH, 2.) for area of the Republia Srpska; TIMEFRAME OF THE RESEARCH 3.) for area of the western Herzegovina and Brčko District. Wider context of time aspect of the research is January Narrow context of time context of the research means time of a day in which the telephone research was being carried out. Time period that was considered as optimal one for the such telephone research was period from to hrs. As main factors that are in favour of the aforementioned time periods are as follows: 1). All family members are at home (Employed and unemployed), 2). People that receive different information from different sources are present (different level of socialisation, different levels of familiarity with the subject of this research, etc.), 6

7 POLLSTERS 3). That is the time period when there are no important information-political shows on TV, neither other TV shows that might influence on factor of free time of potential polled person. Collection of all necessary information through teh telephone research was done by people permanently employed at the Agency for Local Development Initiatives Gorazde. The recommended approach in the research by phone was as follows: 'Good afternoon, I am (name) and I am calling from the Agency for Local Development Initiatives Goražde. We are being performing a research about the level of familiarity of Bosnia and Herzegovina citizens with inmpacts that Agreement on Free Trade will have on local economy and if you have time your opinion would be very< useful for us'. Principles that were implemented during asking questions were: 1). Asking questions exactly as they were written in the questionnaire, 2). They were red slowly and clearly, 3). They were asked in order as they were written in the questionnaire 4). Questions were repeated if polled person did not hear or understand them. Each pollster was making a list during the research and was recording answers of th epolled persons as well as their special attitudes towards the research subject. STATISTICS ON POPULATION Statistic indicators of the Agency for statistics at the state level and statistic data from the entity statistic institutions were used for comparative reviews. 7

8 RESULTS OF THE RESEARCH COMPARATIVE REVIEWS 61% Male Table 1. Comparative data from statistic sample from population registartion from 1991 Gender Sample % Population % 39% Female Male 61 49,48 Female 39 50,52 Total Graphic1 Relative proportions of results from the Table 1 The last census in Bosnia and Herzegovina was done in 1991 and it is being taken as a comparative basis for all statistic analysis of similar economic and sociologic issues. On the other side, direct consequences of the war were great economic and social migrations so there are opinions of some statistic experts that census from1991 was more than obsolete and in some way useless statistic basis. However, it should be taken into consideration that it was the period in which condition of consider values was homogenous and that after the Dayton Peace Agreement there was no publication of parameters, which determined natural migration of population in Bosnia and Herzegovina. As it could be noticed the relative frequencies of sample are more than well positioned comparing the normal distribution of statistic group, which at the same time presents formal evidence that goes in favour of representation of the sample. Table 2. Comparative data from statistic sample and census in % 4% 5% 11% Age category Sample % Population % , , ,9 31% ,2 34% Graphic 2. Relative proportions of results from the Table ,8 > ,5 Nepoznato - 3,1 Ukupno

9 It is obvious that sampled relative frequncies in some cases have higher values comparing the normal group which is specially expressed at certain age groups. ATTITUDES OF PUBLIC OPINION Table 3. Are requests of agricultural producers in BiH justified? Do not know No Area Number of answers Yes No I do not know Ze Do Canton Yes Sarajevo Canton Bijeljina municipality Prijedor municipality Graphic 3. Relative proportions of results from the Table 3 HB Canton TP Canton Zvornik municipality M. grad municipality Brčko District Posavski Canton Srednje b. Canton Banja Luka municipality BP Canton Trebinje municipality Foča municipality HN Canton US Canton ZH Canton Doboj municipality S. Sarajevo municipality TOTAL

10 IV. 37% V. 5% I. 10% II. 23% Table 4. Do you think that you are sufficiently informed on opportunities and threats that agreements on free trade offer? Area Number of answers I. II. III. IV. V. Ze Do Canton Sarajevo Canton III. 25% Bijeljina municipality Prijedor municipality Graphic 4. Relative proportions of results from the Table 4 Explanations: I. Yes, completely HB Canton TP Canton Zvornik municipality II. III. Only information from medias, Partly, M. grad municipality Brčko District IV. No, not sufficiently informed V. Do not want to answer Posavski Canton Srednje b. Canton Banja Luka municipality BP Canton Trebinje municipality Foča municipality HN Canton US Canton ZH Canton Doboj municipality S. Sarajevo municipality TOTAL

11 Table 5. Do you think that BH authorities should undertake new additional measures in order to protect domestic production? III. 1% II. 2% IV. 12% Area Number of answers I. II. III. IV. Ze Do Canton Sarajevo Canton Bijeljina municipality I. 85% Graphic 5 Relative proportions of results fromthe table 5 Explanations: I. Yes, it is necessary to undertake new/additional measures, II. Yes, but respecting already adopted trade policies of BIH Prijedor municipality HB Canton TP Canton Zvornik municipality M. grad municipality Brčko District Posavski Canton III. IV. No, domestic production will gradually have progress even without new radical measures Do not want to answer Srednje b. Canton Banja Luka municipality BP Canton Trebinje municipality Foča municipality HN Canton US Canton ZH Canton Doboj municipality S. Sarajevo municipality TOTAL

12 CLOSING CONCLUSION Analysing the above presented indicators the attitude of public regarding protection of domestic agricultural production is undoubted. Such system of regulation and «interfering» into economy flows is being supported by 85% of polled people. On the other side 2% of the polled people think that Bosnia and Herzegovina should attempt to find adequate protection mechanisms but only within the existing trade agreements signed with teh neighbouring countries. That in the other hand means that objective in those cases is the same but only approaching models are partly different. For full support to all clauses of agreements on free trade were very few polled people, that is relative frequency of 1%. It is very interesting and very worring also that level of familiarity of population with opportunities and threats offered by agreements on free trade. 37% of the polled people were not involved in process of decoding the information on important clauses of agreements on free trade. That implies teh fact that basic clauses of agreements were not defined on principle of consultations with those interested groups of public which would be directly influenced by those agreements. Media as mean of informing on this issue served as a mean for 23% of polled people. Attitudes of agricultural producers regarding postponing of zero customs rate as main clause of agreements on free trade were justified for 75% of polled people. 19% of polled people did not have opinion regarding this issue but that was definitely a consequence of inadequate level of familiarity with the issue. Regardless all that, teh fact is that development of industrial production in Bosnia and Herzegovina must be based on exporting orientation, which also was concluded in all documents that treat developing directions of our country. Such orientation must be supported by strong subsidies policies, tax deductions and strong strategy of exporting promotion. 12

13 CLOSING Will Bosnia and Herzegovina succeed to compensate means that it would lose by application of zero customs rate (means that are in actual moment of economy development in Bosnia and Herzegovina more than important) in some other way and to provide qualitative strengthening of national economic and agricultural flows in that way? There is no a qualitative form of answer in this moment but it is sure that all forms that life of one community make qualitative are under great question mark in this moment. 13