Generation Strains. Bobby Duffy Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King s College London.

Transcription

1 Paste cobrand logo here Generation Strains Bobby Duffy Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King s College London Version 1: Public

2 Why Generations? 2 themes

3 1. More high quality data series over long periods Looked across range of cross-sectional surveys (British Social Attitudes Survey, Ipsos MORI, European Social Survey, Eurobarometer) over time Analysed by simulated/synthetic cohorts of people: when born, not age groups, to identify 3 potential types of change: Period effect: attitudes of all cohorts change in a similar way over the same period of time Lifecycle effect: peoples attitudes change as they age i.e. attitudes can be shifted by certain stages in people s lives or life events Cohort effect: a cohort has different views and these stay different over time Not possible to entirely unpick but can get idea, and helps put recent change in context/understand likely futures

4 2. Generational balance changing fundamentally sometimes missed in talk of ageing population Proportion of UK adult (18+) population from each generational grouping 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 20% 10% 0% Born pre-1945 % Pre-war generation % Baby boomers % Generation X % Generation Y Source: Eurostat

5 3. A better future no longer seems so certain in the West at least Under 30s Total To what extent, if at all, do you feel that your generation will have had a better or worse life than your parents generation, or will it be about the same? T China Brazil Turkey India Japan Russia S Africa Total Argentina 78% 48% 47% 46% 41% 41% 41% 37% 34% 82% 52% 51% 47% 42% 42% 42% 9 Sweden 32% 10 Australia 11 Germany 38% 12 Poland 35% 13 S Korea 27% 14 US 26% 29% Better 15 Canada 24% 33% Total GB Italy 22% 21% 36% 34% Great Britain Spain France Belgium 16% 16% 12% 25% 25% 24% Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 Sept 2013

6 which is a relatively recent trend: will be partly cyclical, but still underlying shifts When they reach your age, do you think today s youth will have a higher or lower quality of life than you, or about the same? % Higher/better % Lower/worse April November April Base: c1,000 British adults aged 18+, April 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI

7 Current cohort of young feeling poor for longer Among which group would you place yourself high income, middle income or low income? 70% % Low income 60% % 10% 0% Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers ( ) Generation x ( ) Generation y ( ) Trend All data points represent > 200 responses Source: Ipsos MORI reanalysis of British Social Attitudes

8 1. Weakening connection to institutions: not seen as solutions to problems

9 Start with political measures

10 Slow decline of party identification Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party? 70% % Yes 60% 20% 10% 0% Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers ( ) Generation x ( ) Generation y ( ) All data points represent > 200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes

11 Is this just a British pattern?

12 UK pattern very similar in European Social Survey Do you feel closer to a particular party than all other parties? UK 80% % Yes 70% 60% 20% 10% 0% Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers ( ) Generation x ( ) Generation y ( ) All data points represent > 200 responses

13 Is this unusual? Do you feel closer to a particular party than all other parties? Germany 80% % Yes 70% 60% 20% 10% 0% Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers ( ) Generation x ( ) Generation y ( ) All data points represent > 200 responses

14 Sweden very different Do you feel closer to a particular party than all other parties? Sweden 80% % Yes 70% 60% 20% 10% 0% Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers ( ) Generation x ( ) Generation y ( ) All data points represent > 200 responses

15 Irish Do you feel closer to a particular party than all other parties? Ireland 80% % Yes 70% 60% 20% 10% 0% Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers ( ) Generation x ( ) Generation y ( ) All data points represent > 200 responses

16 Overall measure of pride in welfare state is one of starkest illustrations of different perspectives... How much do you agree or disagree that the creation of the welfare state is one of Britain's proudest achievements. 90% 80% % Agree 70% 60% 20% 10% 0% Not active rejection, more about connection and relevance Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers ( ) Generation x ( ) Generation y ( ) All data points represent > 200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes

17 Long-term decline in support for more welfare spending... the government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes 70% 60% 55% % Agree total 37% 20% 22% 33% 10% % Disagree total 0% All data points represent > 200 responses Source: Ipsos MORI reanalysis of British Social Attitudes

18 But it s how this changes within generations that s key - cohort and period effects are clear... the government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes 70% 60% % Agree 20% 10% Generations stay different and youngest least in favour 0% Pre war (probably born before 1945) Baby boomers Generation x Generation y All data points represent > 200 responses Source: Ipsos MORI reanalysis of British Social Attitudes

19 Almost entirely wrong/not held up by the data

20 Real picture more nuanced (but fairly well described) Individualism NOT selfishness/greed: Grown up with consumption/competition as dominant ideologies Post-materialist values, more focused on issue-specific campaigns/ involvement Technology allows greater tailoring/filtering Naim s More, mobility and mentality revolutions Non-linear transition to adulthood fragmented routes /alternating patterns of independence Not to do with (stated) lack of trust in institutions (often higher); more about efficacy Reflected in diversified engagement (intermittent/noninstitutionalised, horizontal) Outraged young weak/rare trend

21 2. Openness, liberalism Britain s Cosmopolitan Future

22 Strong objection to homosexuality is (literally) dying out Are sexual relations between two adults of the same sex always wrong, almost always wrong, wrong only sometimes, or not wrong at all? 80% 70% % Always wrong 60% 20% 10% 0% Pre war (born before 1945) Baby Boomers (born ) Generation X (born ) Generation Y (born 1980-) All data points represent > 200 responses Source: Ipsos MORI reanalysis of British Social Attitudes

23 The class division in concern about immigration has declined but generational divide has grown What would you say is the most important issue/other important issues facing Britain today? Immigration/immigrants 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% GE2010 Pre-war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born between 1945 and 1965 Gen X (born between 1966 and 1979) Gen Y (born since 1980) 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% All data points represent > 200 responses Source: Ipsos Source: MORI Issues British Social Index Attitudes

24 Pronounced generational hierarchy in trust in EU in UK reverse of other institutional patterns For each of following institutions, tell me whether tend to trust or tend not to trust the European Union 80% 70% % Tend to trust 60% 20% 10% 0% Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers ( ) Generation x ( ) Generation y ( ) All data points represent > 200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes

25 Greece a bit different Tend to trust EU 80% % Tend to trust 70% 60% 20% 10% 0% Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers ( ) Generation x ( ) Generation y ( ) All data points represent > 200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes

26 Spain and other southern states very similar Tend to trust EU 80% % Tend to trust 70% 60% 20% 10% 0% Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers ( ) Generation x ( ) Generation y ( ) All data points represent > 200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes

27 Conclusions Need to take long view to understand type of change and to understand likely future trends Generational patterns seen across Europe but UK an extreme case Key point - need to be careful on assumptions about young: Do not see large institutional responses as automatic solutions Unstoppable individualising pressures in culture/technology: so much of experience can be filtered/tailored But not uncaring or selfish: as active, just in different ways Danger of wrong conversation with them we still don t fully understand how to react Real fragmentation for future not class/wealth/inequality OR generation it s both/where they interact

28 For more info see Paste cobrand logo Version 1: Public Thank you