Polling Methodological note

Transcription

1 Polling Methodological note The Kantar TNS Rearch Exprs Online Omnibus interviewed a reprentative sample of 2,448 adults in Great Britain between the 6 th and 12 th February All interviews were conducted as online self-completion. The Kantar TNS Rearch Exprs us the Lightspeed accs panel as its sample source. The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, working status, 2017 General Election voting patterns, 2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election. Further details on the weighting are given on page three. Voting intentions The voting intention figur provided aim to show the current political opinion of the nation rather than to accurately predict the outcome of the next General Election. Chang in methodology since our last poll The weighting now controls for vote in the 2017 General Election by country. It should be noted that his change has almost no impact on the headline voting intentions. Without this change they would have been have been e (40%), Labour (39%), Lib Dems (9%) and UKIP (4%). Margin of error The figur are timat based on a sample of the population of Great Britain; this means that there is a degree of uncertainty around each timate. On the assumption that conditional on the weights - the sample is practically equivalent to a random sample, the survey timat have a margin of error of up to ±3 percentage points. This uncertainty means that it is important that each individual poll is not viewed in isolation. Kantar Public UK is a member of the British Polling Council and abid by its rul.

2 Brexit Confidence Index Rpondents were asked about the impact (positive, negative, no effect) they expect Brexit to have on the following areas: the price of things they buy the standard of care in the NHS the standard of schools where you live the mix of people in their local area your job and career opportuniti The Brexit Confidence Index is a summary of the public mood across the different areas. The index is calculated by subtracting the proportion who think there will be at least some negative effects due to Brexit and no positive effects from the proportion that think that there will be at least some positive effects due to Brexit and no negative effects. Feb-18 Nov-17 Unweighted base 2,040 2,044 Positive effects, no negative effects 22% 24% Mixed effects 18% 18% Negative effects, no positive effects 44% 44% No effects 16% 14% Sentiment Index = "Positive effects, no negative effects" - "Negative effects, no positive effects" -22% -21% Kantar Public UK is a member of the British Polling Council and abid by its rul.

3 Hypothetical Brexit scenarios In this poll we asked rpondents to consider four possible Brexit scenarios, ranging from an EU-in-all-but name arrangement to a no-deal hard Brexit. The scenarios are derived by Kantar Public from work conducted by the UCL Constitution Unit: The use of this information by Kantar Public do not imply endorsement by UCL. Excluding those who have not told us which scenario they favour or which scenario is most likely 43% currently think the eventual Brexit deal will most likely match their preference. Which scenario do you favour? Stay in the Single Market, with free movement of labour as now but with some additional constraints on accs to UK benefits Which scenario do you think is the most likely? Out of the Single Market but comprehensive trade deal with the EU and EU citizens given favourable accs to the UK Out of the Single Market and a limited trade deal with the EU; no favourable accs to the UK for EU citizens No deal - no closer relations with the EU than with any other countri Stay in the Single Market, with free movement of labour as now but with some 13.6% 6.8% 8.7% 6.0% additional constraints on accs to UK benefits Out of the Single Market but comprehensive trade deal with the EU and 2.9% 11.1% 9.4% 2.8% EU citizens given favourable accs to the UK Out of the Single Market and a limited trade deal with the EU; 2.9% 5.8% 10.9% 3.2% no favourable accs to the UK for EU citizens No deal - no closer relations with the EU than with any other countri 2.3% 2.8% 2.8% 7.9% Base = Adults in GB aged 18+ that favour a Brexit scenario and that chose a likely scenario (1,638) Kantar Public UK is a member of the British Polling Council and abid by its rul.

4 Weighting Weights have been applied to the sample to ensure that it is reprentative of the general public in Great Britain aged 18+. The sourc for the population totals are provided in each table. Gender* and working status Source: Annual Population Survey (Apr 2016-Mar 2017) Unweighted count Weighted count Male working Male not working Female working Female not working *Those reporting an other gender are randomly allocated to male or female. Gender* and age Source: ONS Mid Year-2016 Population Estimat: Unweighted count Weighted count Male Male Male Male Male Male Female Female Female Female Female Female *Those reporting an other gender are randomly allocated to male or female. Kantar Public UK is a member of the British Polling Council and abid by its rul.

5 Region Source: ONS Mid Year-2016 Population Estimat: Unweighted count Weighted count North East England North Wt England Yorkshire & Humber East Midlands Wt Midlands East of England London South East England South Wt England Wal Scotland Education by age Source: Annual Population Survey April March 2017 Unweighted count Weighted count Aged with a degree Aged with a degree Aged with a degree Other Vote in the 2016 EU referendum* Source: EU referendum & ONS Mid Year-2016 Population Estimat Unweighted percentage Weighted percentage Remain 41% 31% Leave 44% 34% Did not vote 14% 35% *An imputed rponse is given for those that prefer not to say who they voted for in the referendum. Kantar Public UK is a member of the British Polling Council and abid by its rul.

6 Vote in the 2017 General Election* Source: General Election & ONS Mid Year-2016 Population Estimat Unweighted percentage Weighted percentage England - Labour 30% 23% England - e 31% 25% England - Lib Dem 6% 4% England - Other 7% 3% England - No vote 13% 32% Scotland - Labour 2% 1% Scotland - e 2% 2% Scotland - SNP 2% 2% Scotland - Other 1% <0.5% Scotland - No vote 1% 3% Wal - Labour 2% 2% Wal - e 2% 1% Wal - PC 0% 0% Wal - Other 0% 0% Wal - No vote 1% 2% *An imputed rponse is given for those that prefer not to say who they voted for in the 2017 General Election. Likelihood to Vote in General Election We have timated the likelihood that each rpondent will vote in the next General Election. This value is based on rpondents stated intention to vote, their age and whether they voted in the last general election. The expected population turnout has been included as a population total in the weighting matrix. This turnout has been timated based on the relationship between sample and population turnout rat in the 2015 general election. Unweighted percentage Weighted percentage Estimated Voting Age Population turnout if General Election were to be held tomorrow 84% 61% The model was developed using data from rpondents that participated in Kantar Public (at the time TNS UK) polls immediately prior to the 2015 general election and immediately after the election. Further details Please contact Luke Taylor luke.taylor@kantarpublic.com for further details on the methodology used in this polling. Kantar Public UK is a member of the British Polling Council and abid by its rul.

7 Gelikely.If the UK General Election were to be held tomorrow, do you think you would... Pg 3 Tb T2 Definitely vote (4) Probably vote (3) Probably not vote (2) Definitely not vote (1) Or would you prefer not to say? Mean score Standard Deviation % 42% 38% 9% 15% 23% 40% 56% 75% 76% 64% 61% 68% 4% 57% 58% 8% C CDE CDEF CDEFG JKM M M* M P P % 17% 15% 22% 22% 19% 14% 14% 7% 13% 21% 21% 11% 15% 14% 21% 13% H H H H H ILM * NP % 18% 17% 35% 30% 18% 11% 16% 5% 8% 8% 8% 13% 32% 14% 9% 31% EFGH EFGH H H * IJKL O NO % 16% 20% 17% 23% 33% 20% 10% 8% 2% 4% 7% 5% 43% 10% 8% 36% H GH CFGH GH I I* I IJKL NO % 8% 11% 17% 10% 8% 15% 3% 5% 2% 2% 3% 2% 6% 6% 4% 12% EGH G GH * IJ NO * CDE CDEF CDEFG JKLM M M* M P P Error Variance

8 Votingintentions. Voting intention for next General Election Pg 49 Tb T42 Base: All adults in GB 18+ excluding those who plan not to vote & those who refuse to say who they will vote for Labour e Liberal Democrats UKIP SNP Green Plaid Cymru Other % 39% 41% 53% 51% 55% 39% 40% 23% 4% 88% 11% 5% 41% 26% 48% 50% H* FH FGH H H IKLM I* * IKL N N % 35% 35% 18% 24% 24% 35% 31% 56% 86% 2% 8% 2% 20% 51% 29% 19% * CE C CDEFG JKLM J* * JL OP P % 9% 8% 12% 8% 8% 6% 9% 8% 2% 5% 78% 2% 10% 3% 13% 9% * I IJLM* * I N N % 6% 4% 6% 4% 5% 7% 7% 3% 3% 1% - 24% 9% 10% * 5% * * IJKM* IJK O O % 5% 4% 5% 7% 3% 5% 4% 2% * 1% - 48% 4% 3% 5% 4% * * IJKM* I % 4% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 2% 2% * 1% 1% 11% 11% 2% 2% 8% * * IJK* IJK NO % 1% 1% * - * 1% * 1% * * - 6% - 1% * 1% * * IJM* % 2% 4% 1% 2% 1% 2% 7% 3% 4% 1% 1% 1% 4% 5% 1% 3% * EFH J * * O

9 Votingintentions. Voting intention for next General Election Pg 50 Tb T43 Base: All adults in GB 18+ excluding those who plan not to vote & those who refuse to say who they will vote for - weighted by likelihood of turning out in the General Election e Labour Liberal Democrats SNP UKIP Green Plaid Cymru Other % 40% 38% 19% 27% 24% 35% 34% 57% 87% 2% 9% 2% 23% 55% 30% 19% CE CE CDEFG JKLM J* * JKL OP P % 38% 41% 59% 54% 55% 42% 40% 23% 4% 89% 9% 5% 44% 25% 48% 56% FGH FGH FGH H H IKLM * * IKL N N % 9% 7% 8% 7% 9% 7% 10% 8% 2% 4% 79% 1% 12% 3% 14% 8% IJLM* * IJL N N % 4% 4% 3% 8% 4% 6% 4% 3% * 1% - 52% 4% 3% 5% 5% H * IJKM* IJ % 4% 3% 7% 2% 3% 4% 5% 3% 3% 1% - 20% 6% 7% * 4% D * IJKM* J O O % 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% 2% * 1% 1% 12% 8% 2% 2% 5% * IJK* IJ % 1% 1% 1% - * 1% * 1% * 1% - 6% - 1% * 2% * IJM* % 1% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 5% 3% 4% 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 1% 1% A E * * O

10 VOTE2022_England.If the UK General Election were to be held tomorrow, who would you vote for in your local constituency? [ENGLAND] Pg 4 Tb T3 Base: All adults in England 18+ who would vote in election Labour party (led by Jeremy Corbyn) e party (led by Thera May) Liberal Democrats (led by Vince Cable) UKIP - United Kingdom Independence Party (led by Henry Bolton) Green Party (led by Caroline Lucas and Jonathan Bartley) Other party or individual Prefer not to say % 31% 28% 31% 38% 37% 27% 30% 21% 4% 84% 11% 7% 25% 21% 42% 30% H FH H H IKLM I* * IKL NP N % 29% 24% 12% 15% 17% 25% 27% 49% 75% 2% 8% 5% 12% 43% 25% 11% C CD CDEFG JKLM J* * J OP P % 8% 5% 8% 6% 6% 5% 8% 6% 2% 4% 67% 5% 7% 2% 12% 6% I IJLM* * I NP % 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 5% 4% 3% 3% 1% - 45% 5% 8% * 3% * IJKM* J O % 3% 2% 3% 2% 4% 4% 1% 3% * 1% 1% 19% 7% 2% 2% 6% * IJKM* IJ O % 2% 3% 1% 2% * 1% 6% 3% 4% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1% 2% CEF J * * O % 23% 33% 43% 34% 33% 33% 24% 15% 12% 7% 12% 17% 41% 20% 18% 42% A GH H H H H J * J* IJKL NO

11 VOTE2022_Scotland.If the UK General Election were to be held tomorrow, who would you vote for in your local constituency? [SCOTLAND] Pg 5 Tb T4 Base: All adults in Scotland 18+ who would vote in election SNP - Scottish National Party (led by Nicola Sturgeon) e party (led by Thera May in the UK and Ruth Davidson in Scotland) Labour party (led by Jeremy Corbyn in the UK and Richard Leonard in Scotland) Liberal Democrats (led by Vince Cable in the UK and Willie Rennie in Scotland) UKIP - United Kingdom Independence Party (led by Henry Bolton in the UK and David Coburn in Scotland) Scottish Green Party (led by Patrick Harvie and Maggie Chapman) Other party or individual Prefer not to say % 38% 32% 36% 53% 31% 46% 29% 23% * 15% - 96% 31% 32% 36% 46% * * ** ** ** ** ** * * ** ** I* ** * * ** % 21% 13% 4% 16% 10% 19% 7% 36% 83% 3% - - 4% 20% 22% 4% * * ** ** ** ** ** * L* ** ** * ** * * ** % 15% 18% 14% 18% 22% 19% 13% 16% 5% 67% - 2% 12% 12% 23% 9% * * ** ** ** ** ** * * ** ** * ** * * ** % 4% 8% - * 1% * 9% 15% 3% 11% 74% - - 5% 9% - * * ** ** ** ** ** * * ** ** * ** * * ** % 7% 1% 1% - 1% 2% 17% 1% 4% - - 2% 12% 13% * - * * ** ** ** ** ** * * ** ** * ** O* * ** % 3% 1% - 11% - - 1% % 8% 1% 4% - * * ** ** ** ** ** * * ** ** * ** * * ** * * ** ** ** ** ** * * ** ** * ** * * ** % 12% 27% 45% 1% 35% 14% 25% 10% 5% 4% 26% - 33% 17% 7% 41% * * ** ** ** ** ** * * ** ** * ** * * **

12 VOTE2022_Wal.If the UK General Election were to be held tomorrow, who would you vote for in your local constituency? [WALES] Pg 6 Tb T5 Base: All adults in Wal 18+ who would vote in election Labour party (led by Jeremy Corbyn in the UK and Carwyn Jon in Wal) e party (led by Thera May in the UK and Andrew RT Davi in Wal) Plaid Cymru (led by Leanne Wood) UKIP - United Kingdom Independence Party (led by Henry Bolton in the UK and Neil Hamilton in Wal) Green Party (led by Caroline Lucas and Jonathan Bartley in England and Wal and Grenville Ham in Wal) Liberal Democrats (led by Vince Cable in the UK and Kirsty Williams in Wal) Other party or individual Prefer not to say % 52% 27% 67% 22% 74% 46% 61% 14% 1% 80% - 2% 41% 31% 68% 25% ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** % 19% 27% 1% 28% 2% 11% 11% 45% 84% 3% % 36% 22% 10% ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** % 8% 6% 4% - 2% 16% 1% 14% 2% 7% - 58% - 8% 5% 8% ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** % * 5% 27% - 2% - 1% - 1% - - 6% 7% 2% - 7% ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** % 1% 1% % % - 2% 2% - ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** % 3% % - - 5% % - - ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** % 16% 34% - 50% 20% 27% 12% 28% 12% 5% - 18% 28% 18% 3% 50% ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **

13 Vote2017.The last General Election was held on 8th June Did you manage to vote in that General Election? Pg 7 Tb T6 No, did not vote Y, e Y, Labour Y, Liberal Democrat Y, SNP - Scottish National Party Y, UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party) Y, Green Party Y, Plaid Cymru Y, BNP (British National Party) Other party or individual Prefer not to answer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

14 JobSecurity.Do you feel that your current job is...? Pg 31 Tb T19 working full/part time More safe than it was 12 months ago Ls safe than it was 12 months ago Much the same as it was 12 months ago Don't know % 12% 9% 28% 16% 6% 9% 3% 4% 9% 13% 4% 6% 12% 9% 9% 13% EFGH* EG * * * % 20% 23% 19% 26% 25% 15% 25% 11% 17% 29% 31% 34% 19% 21% 26% 18% * F F * IM * IM* % 56% 53% 43% 47% 46% 61% 65% 83% 69% 49% 58% 52% 55% 61% 56% 49% * CDE CDE CDEF* JLM * * P % 12% 15% 11% 12% 23% 15% 6% 3% 4% 10% 7% 8% 14% 9% 9% 20% * DGH G * I * * I NO

15 PastEconomy.Compared to a year ago, do you think that the British economy is doing...? Pg 32 Tb T20 Better than it was 12 months ago Much the same as it was 12 months ago Worse than it was 12 months ago % 15% 12% 18% 14% 10% 7% 13% 19% 23% 10% 9% 8% 10% 20% 10% 9% F EF JKLM * OP % 56% 54% 45% 57% 62% 57% 53% 52% 59% 51% 53% 53% 54% 61% 51% 53% C C J * O % 29% 35% 37% 29% 28% 36% 34% 29% 18% 39% 38% 39% 36% 19% 40% 38% A I I* I I N N

16 FutureEconomy.Thinking about the year ahead, in 12 months time do you think the British economy will be doing...? Pg 33 Tb T21 Better than it is now Much the same as it is now Worse than it is now % 18% 11% 23% 13% 8% 9% 14% 21% 25% 11% 8% 13% 11% 25% 7% 11% B DEF DEF JKLM * OP % 52% 55% 47% 57% 70% 50% 51% 48% 56% 47% 48% 50% 55% 58% 46% 56% CDFGH J * J O O % 30% 34% 30% 30% 23% 41% 34% 31% 19% 42% 44% 37% 34% 17% 47% 33% DEH E IM I* I I NP N

17 HHBudget.Compared to a year ago, do you find it easier or harder to meet your monthly household budget? Pg 34 Tb T22 Easier than it was 12 months ago About the same as it was 12 months ago Harder than it was 12 month ago % 9% 5% 12% 13% 8% 3% 5% 3% 8% 12% 9% 6% 2% 6% 9% 5% B FGH FGH M M M* % 66% 55% 54% 58% 59% 60% 59% 67% 66% 52% 58% 49% 63% 64% 56% 60% B C JL * JL O % 26% 40% 34% 29% 33% 37% 37% 29% 25% 36% 34% 45% 35% 30% 35% 35% A I * I I

18 GovEconomy.How would you rate the government's management of the economy over the past 12 months? Pg 35 Tb T23 Very good Quite good Neither good nor poor Quite poor Very poor NET : Very/quite good NET : Very/quite poor % 3% 2% 4% 3% 4% 1% 1% 4% 5% 4% 1% 2% 1% 4% 4% 1% M M * % 20% 15% 12% 18% 11% 14% 17% 26% 39% 9% 17% 5% 11% 24% 17% 11% CEFG JKLM L* OP P % 39% 48% 49% 49% 51% 39% 37% 39% 41% 32% 43% 35% 49% 43% 35% 51% A G G FGH J * IJL O NO % 23% 21% 23% 20% 19% 27% 27% 17% 13% 29% 24% 33% 24% 20% 26% 22% H H I I* I I N % 15% 14% 12% 10% 14% 18% 18% 14% 2% 26% 16% 25% 15% 10% 19% 16% D D IM I* IM I N N % 23% 17% 16% 21% 16% 15% 18% 30% 44% 13% 17% 7% 12% 28% 20% 12% B CDEFG JKLM * OP P % 38% 35% 35% 30% 34% 45% 45% 31% 15% 55% 40% 58% 39% 30% 45% 37% DEH DEH IKM I* IKM I N

19 Euref.On 23rd June 2016 a referendum was held on the UK's membership of the European Union. How did you vote in this referendum? Pg 36 Tb T25 Leave Remain Did not vote Don't know % 35% 32% 8% 13% 23% 33% 51% 55% 66% 28% 31% 55% 16% 100% - - CD CDE CDEF CDEF JKM M M* JKM OP % 33% 28% 22% 29% 26% 33% 33% 36% 30% 56% 65% 38% 14% - 100% - C C CE M ILM ILM* M NP % 30% 35% 64% 51% 47% 28% 14% 8% 4% 15% 4% 7% 69% % DEFGH FGH FGH GH H IKL * IJKL NO % 3% 5% 7% 6% 5% 6% 1% 1% * 1% * - 2% GH GH H GH *

20 Negotiations.How well do you think the UK government is handling the [Brexit] negotiations? Pg 37 Tb T27 Handling them very well Handling them fairly well Handling them fairly poorly Handling them very poorly Not sure NET : Very/fairly well NET : Very/fairly poorly % 4% 2% 3% 4% 2% 1% 1% 5% 6% 3% 5% 4% 1% 5% 3% 2% F JM * % 22% 20% 20% 16% 17% 17% 20% 31% 40% 12% 15% 10% 16% 31% 17% 14% CDEFG JKLM * OP % 29% 29% 29% 29% 26% 29% 32% 28% 28% 33% 36% 35% 26% 30% 32% 27% % 31% 23% 25% 23% 25% 32% 33% 23% 13% 43% 30% 42% 27% 23% 36% 25% B H H IKM I* IM I NP % 15% 26% 24% 27% 29% 21% 14% 13% 12% 9% 14% 10% 30% 12% 13% 31% A GH GH GH H * IJKL NO % 25% 22% 23% 21% 19% 18% 21% 36% 47% 15% 20% 13% 17% 35% 20% 16% CDEFG JKLM * OP % 60% 52% 54% 53% 52% 61% 65% 51% 41% 76% 66% 76% 54% 53% 67% 52% B H DEH IM I* IM I NP *

21 Deal.Assuming that the UK leav the EU, which scenario do you favour? Pg 38 Tb T28 Stay in the Single Market, with free movement of labour as now but with some additional constraints on accs to UK benefits Out of the Single Market but comprehensive trade deal with the EU and EU citizens given favourable accs to the UK Out of the Single Market and a limited trade deal with the EU; no favourable accs to the UK for EU citizens No deal - no closer relations with the EU than with any other countri Some other arrangement Not sure % 24% 26% 23% 26% 24% 25% 24% 25% 16% 35% 40% 31% 26% 10% 42% 25% IM IM* I I NP N % 22% 13% 16% 17% 13% 18% 19% 21% 25% 20% 18% 15% 12% 21% 18% 14% B E LM M * P % 18% 12% 12% 11% 11% 12% 22% 20% 26% 14% 17% 19% 10% 29% 9% 8% B CDEF DEF JM * M OP % 12% 10% 9% 9% 12% 8% 15% 12% 14% 10% 12% 20% 9% 18% 6% 9% F * JM OP % 1% * 1% * 1% 2% * 1% * 2% * * 1% * 2% * I * % 23% 39% 40% 38% 39% 35% 20% 20% 19% 19% 13% 16% 41% 21% 22% 44% A GH GH GH GH * IJKL NO

22 Deal2.Assuming that the UK leav the EU, which scenario do you think is the most likely? Pg 39 Tb T29 Out of the Single Market and a limited trade deal with the EU; no favourable accs to the UK for EU citizens Out of the Single Market but comprehensive trade deal with the EU and EU citizens given favourable accs to the UK Stay in the Single Market, with free movement of labour as now but with some additional constraints on accs to UK benefits No deal - no closer relations with the EU than with any other countri Some other arrangement Not sure % 23% 18% 21% 12% 14% 17% 29% 26% 27% 24% 20% 26% 13% 25% 23% 14% B DEF DEF M M * M P P % 21% 14% 17% 18% 14% 19% 15% 20% 25% 15% 19% 15% 17% 21% 18% 15% B JLM * % 14% 13% 12% 20% 17% 9% 15% 10% 13% 16% 14% 13% 15% 12% 16% 14% FH * % 15% 11% 13% 11% 12% 11% 15% 15% 11% 17% 17% 22% 12% 15% 16% 9% I * IM P P * * * 1% * 1% 1% - * * * - * * * * * % 26% 44% 36% 39% 43% 43% 26% 28% 24% 27% 30% 22% 43% 27% 27% 47% A GH GH GH * IJL NO *

23 Deal and Deal2. Deal - favoured scenario vs Deal 2 - most likely scenario Pg 40 Tb T30 who favour one of the Brexit scenarios Stay in the Single Market, with free movement of labour as now but with some additional constraints on accs to UK benefits Out of the Single Market but comprehensive trade deal with the EU and EU citizens given favourable accs to the UK Out of the Single Market and a limited trade deal with the EU; no favourable accs to the UK for EU citizens No deal - no closer relations with the EU than with any other countri Some other arrangement Base Stay in the Single Market, with free movement of labour as now but with some additional constraints on accs to UK benefits Out of the Single Market but comprehensive trade deal with the EU and EU citizens given favourable accs to the UK Out of the Single Market and a limited trade deal with the EU; no favourable accs to the UK for EU citizens No deal - no closer relations with the EU than with any other countri Some other arrangemen t A B C D E F % 62% 26% 27% 30% 17% 43% BCDF ** BC* % 13% 42% 29% 14% - 20% ACDF AD ** * % 13% 22% 34% 16% 5% 14% Not sure ABDF ** * % 10% 10% 9% 39% 18% 18% ABCF ** C* % 1% * * 1% 60% 5% ** BC* - Column Means: Columns Tted (5%): A/B/C/D/E/F Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) - Column Proportions: Columns Tted (5%): A/B/C/D/E/F Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) Continuity correction applied

24 Outcom.Compared to remaining part of the EU, do you think leaving the EU will make things better for you or make things worse? - Summary table Pg 41 Tb TG32 Much better A bit better No difference A bit worse Much worse Not sure NET : Much/a bit better NET : Much / a bit worse the price of things you buy the price of hom the standard of care in the NHS the standard of schools where you live the mix of people where you live your job and career opportunitie s % 5% 7% 5% 5% 4% % 11% 17% 12% 12% 11% % 43% 33% 53% 57% 49% % 19% 19% 11% 10% 14% % 9% 12% 5% 7% 9% % 13% 11% 14% 11% 13% % 16% 25% 17% 16% 15% % 28% 31% 16% 17% 23%

25 Outcom.Compared to remaining part of the EU, do you think leaving the EU will make things better for you or make things worse? - the price of things you buy Pg 42 Tb T33 Much better A bit better No difference A bit worse Much worse Not sure NET : Much/a bit better NET : Much / a bit worse % 3% 4% 8% 5% 1% 3% 1% 3% 4% 3% 8% 4% 2% 5% 2% 3% EGH M* O % 12% 9% 14% 15% 6% 5% 11% 11% 13% 11% 5% 12% 8% 16% 6% 9% EF EF F F * OP % 27% 22% 25% 17% 30% 24% 25% 25% 31% 21% 21% 29% 21% 37% 12% 22% B D JM * OP O % 35% 38% 26% 29% 35% 36% 43% 45% 41% 32% 44% 38% 36% 32% 44% 35% CD CD J * NP % 15% 19% 20% 20% 15% 21% 15% 13% 7% 27% 18% 15% 19% 6% 29% 17% ILM I* I I NP N % 8% 10% 7% 15% 13% 11% 4% 3% 4% 6% 3% 2% 13% 5% 6% 14% GH GH GH * IJKL NO % 15% 12% 21% 20% 7% 8% 13% 14% 18% 14% 13% 16% 10% 21% 8% 12% EF EF E M * OP % 50% 57% 46% 48% 50% 57% 58% 58% 47% 60% 63% 53% 55% 38% 74% 52% A C C I I* NP N

26 Outcom.Compared to remaining part of the EU, do you think leaving the EU will make things better for you or make things worse? - the price of hom Pg 43 Tb T34 Much better A bit better No difference A bit worse Much worse Not sure NET : Much/a bit better NET : Much / a bit worse % 6% 3% 9% 8% 5% 3% 1% 3% 4% 5% 4% 3% 5% 6% 2% 5% FGH GH * O % 13% 9% 17% 15% 7% 9% 8% 12% 15% 11% 9% 9% 10% 15% 9% 10% B EFG EG * OP % 45% 41% 27% 33% 46% 38% 55% 51% 57% 36% 48% 43% 36% 55% 36% 37% CD C CDF CDF JLM * OP % 16% 23% 20% 17% 15% 23% 21% 20% 16% 23% 20% 26% 18% 11% 29% 20% A I * I NP N % 9% 9% 19% 9% 8% 10% 5% 6% 2% 15% 5% 12% 10% 4% 14% 9% DEFGH IK * I I NP N % 11% 15% 7% 17% 19% 17% 10% 8% 5% 9% 13% 7% 21% 9% 10% 20% CH CGH CGH I I* IJL NO % 19% 12% 26% 23% 12% 12% 9% 14% 19% 17% 13% 12% 15% 21% 11% 15% B EFGH EFGH * O % 25% 31% 39% 27% 23% 32% 26% 26% 19% 38% 25% 38% 28% 16% 43% 28% A DEGH IKM * I I NP N

27 Outcom.Compared to remaining part of the EU, do you think leaving the EU will make things better for you or make things worse? - the standard of care in the NHS Pg 44 Tb T35 Much better A bit better No difference A bit worse Much worse Not sure NET : Much/a bit better NET : Much / a bit worse % 8% 6% 9% 9% 7% 7% 5% 7% 11% 8% 4% 6% 6% 13% 3% 6% M * OP % 19% 16% 20% 21% 15% 11% 16% 22% 26% 17% 14% 17% 13% 26% 10% 15% F F F JKM * OP % 34% 32% 24% 24% 34% 32% 45% 35% 41% 26% 37% 31% 31% 38% 30% 30% CDFH CD JM * OP % 17% 21% 21% 17% 15% 23% 16% 22% 15% 23% 29% 28% 18% 11% 28% 19% I I* I NP N % 11% 13% 19% 12% 10% 12% 9% 12% 4% 19% 13% 15% 12% 5% 19% 12% G IM I* I I NP N % 10% 12% 9% 16% 19% 14% 9% 3% 3% 7% 3% 3% 19% 6% 9% 18% H H CGH H H I * IJKL NO % 28% 22% 28% 30% 22% 18% 21% 29% 37% 24% 18% 23% 19% 39% 13% 21% B F F JKLM * OP O % 28% 34% 39% 29% 25% 35% 25% 33% 19% 42% 41% 43% 31% 16% 48% 31% A EG EG IM I* IM I NP N

28 Outcom.Compared to remaining part of the EU, do you think leaving the EU will make things better for you or make things worse? - the standard of schools where you live Pg 45 Tb T36 Much better A bit better No difference A bit worse Much worse Not sure NET : Much/a bit better NET : Much / a bit worse % 6% 4% 7% 6% 6% 4% 3% 4% 9% 5% 5% 4% 3% 8% 2% 4% M * OP % 13% 11% 16% 18% 9% 7% 8% 14% 15% 12% 5% 11% 11% 17% 8% 10% FG EFG F K * OP % 54% 53% 43% 43% 49% 50% 64% 64% 61% 49% 60% 59% 51% 59% 53% 49% CDEF CDEF JM * OP % 12% 10% 15% 9% 10% 14% 12% 10% 8% 14% 16% 19% 10% 6% 18% 11% I * IM NP N % 5% 5% 10% 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1% 10% * 4% 4% 2% 9% 3% GH IKM * NP % 11% 17% 8% 20% 21% 21% 9% 6% 5% 9% 14% 4% 21% 8% 11% 23% A CGH CGH CGH IL* IJL NO % 19% 15% 24% 24% 15% 11% 12% 17% 24% 18% 10% 15% 14% 25% 10% 14% FG FG JKM * OP % 16% 15% 25% 13% 15% 18% 15% 13% 9% 24% 16% 23% 14% 8% 27% 15% DEGH IM * IM NP N

29 Outcom.Compared to remaining part of the EU, do you think leaving the EU will make things better for you or make things worse? - the mix of people where you live Pg 46 Tb T37 Much better A bit better No difference A bit worse Much worse Not sure NET : Much/a bit better NET : Much / a bit worse % 6% 4% 6% 7% 7% 4% 3% 3% 5% 4% 4% 8% 4% 7% 4% 3% * OP % 13% 10% 16% 18% 11% 8% 10% 9% 15% 12% 5% 10% 12% 16% 8% 11% FH FH K * O % 55% 58% 37% 43% 52% 54% 68% 74% 68% 55% 68% 54% 51% 65% 54% 51% C CD CDEF CDEF JLM JM* OP % 9% 10% 13% 10% 8% 14% 9% 6% 6% 11% 10% 9% 11% 4% 16% 11% H H I * N N % 7% 7% 19% 8% 3% 6% 6% 4% 3% 9% 7% 15% 7% 4% 11% 6% DEFGH I * IM I NP % 9% 12% 8% 14% 19% 14% 4% 4% 3% 10% 6% 4% 16% 4% 8% 19% GH CGH GH I * IJL N NO % 19% 14% 23% 25% 17% 12% 13% 12% 20% 15% 9% 18% 16% 23% 12% 14% B FGH FGH K * OP % 16% 17% 32% 18% 12% 20% 14% 10% 9% 20% 17% 24% 18% 8% 26% 16% DEFGH H H I * I I NP N

30 Outcom.Compared to remaining part of the EU, do you think leaving the EU will make things better for you or make things worse? - your job and career opportuniti Pg 47 Tb T38 Much better A bit better No difference A bit worse Much worse Not sure NET : Much/a bit better NET : Much / a bit worse % 5% 4% 6% 7% 4% 5% 3% 2% 6% 6% 4% 6% 3% 7% 2% 3% H H * OP % 13% 9% 23% 14% 12% 6% 9% 8% 14% 11% 6% 8% 10% 15% 7% 12% B EFGH F * O % 50% 48% 25% 35% 47% 50% 60% 64% 63% 46% 50% 51% 42% 60% 48% 37% CD CD CDE CDEF JLM * OP P % 14% 14% 22% 19% 10% 15% 13% 8% 8% 17% 18% 15% 16% 6% 20% 16% EGH EH H I I* I I N N % 8% 9% 15% 11% 8% 10% 7% 5% 2% 12% 12% 11% 11% 3% 13% 11% GH H I I* I I N N % 10% 17% 9% 14% 20% 15% 8% 13% 8% 9% 9% 9% 18% 9% 10% 21% A CG * IJL NO % 18% 13% 29% 21% 16% 10% 12% 10% 20% 17% 10% 14% 13% 22% 9% 14% B EFGH FGH M * OP % 22% 23% 37% 30% 18% 25% 20% 13% 10% 29% 31% 26% 26% 9% 33% 27% EFGH EGH H I I* I I N N

31 Qual.Select which, if any, educational qualifications you have from the list Pg 48 Tb T41 University degree Any other qualifications (e.g. A Levels, O Levels, GCSEs, BTEC, Diplomas, Trade Apprentichips) No qualifications % 29% 28% 18% 44% 35% 29% 21% 23% 26% 36% 32% 25% 27% 19% 40% 28% CFGH CGH C IM * NP N % 63% 67% 78% 55% 60% 69% 74% 60% 68% 62% 64% 64% 68% 70% 59% 67% DEH DH DEH * O % 11% 10% 9% 8% 12% 8% 8% 19% 10% 9% 8% 13% 10% 14% 7% 10% CDFG * O

32 Crossbreaks Pg 1 Tb T1 Sex AGE Male Female % 100% - 50% 50% 50% 49% 52% 43% 52% 52% 58% 54% 45% 51% 53% 44% B * P % - 100% 50% 50% 50% 51% 48% 57% 48% 48% 42% 46% 55% 49% 47% 56% A * O % 11% 11% 100% % 8% 6% 6% 17% 3% 8% 22% DEFGH I * IJKL N NO % 18% 17% - 100% % 18% 10% 9% 25% 7% 16% 27% CEFGH IL * IJKL N NO % 17% 16% % % 16% 7% 13% 22% 11% 14% 23% CDFGH I * IK NO % 18% 18% % % 20% 13% 20% 16% 18% 19% 16% CDEGH * % 18% 15% % - 20% 20% 22% 23% 12% 26% 18% 7% CDEFH M M M* M OP P % 19% 24% % 45% 18% 43% 28% 8% 36% 25% 5% CDEFG JLM M JM* JM OP P Table continu

33 Crossbreaks Pg 2 Tb T1 GE Vote 2017 EU Ref 2016 Labour Lib Dems Other No vote Leave Remain Did not vote % 28% 25% 9% 8% 15% 26% 31% 53% 100% % 25% 3% CDE CDE CDEFG JKLM * OP P % 25% 23% 19% 26% 24% 28% 29% 19% - 100% % 43% 11% H IKLM * P NP % 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 6% 8% % - - 4% 9% 1% DE IJLM* P NP % 5% 4% 3% 2% 4% 6% 7% 6% % - 8% 6% 1% * IJKM P P % 37% 44% 66% 61% 56% 37% 28% 14% % 19% 18% 84% A FGH FGH FGH H H * IJKL NO % 36% 33% 9% 14% 24% 35% 52% 56% 66% 28% 31% 55% 16% 100% - - C CDE CDEF CDEF JKM M M* JKM OP % 34% 30% 23% 31% 27% 35% 33% 36% 30% 57% 65% 38% 14% - 100% - C C M ILM ILM* M NP % 30% 37% 68% 55% 49% 30% 15% 8% 4% 15% 4% 7% 70% % A DEFGH FGH FGH GH H IKL * IJKL NO