Business Leaders Outlook

Transcription

1 Business Leaders Outlook

2 KEY TAKEAWAY This year s results highlight a divergence in attitudes toward the global and local economies, with middle market executives showing more optimism closer to home.

3 Introduction

4 A More Cautious Outlook From January 12 through 29, Commercial Banking conducted its annual survey of nearly 1,400 middle market executives to gauge their outlooks on the local, national and global economies, as well as their perspectives on the current regulatory environment and their business strategies for the year ahead. The time period in which respondents took this survey was marked by turmoil in the equities, commodities and foreign markets. This likely had an impact on the survey results. While executives remained overwhelmingly positive about the performance of their own companies in, they expressed more neutral and pessimistic sentiment in their local, national and global outlooks. This year s survey recorded the highest level of global pessimism since it began in 2011, underscoring the divergent outlook between home and abroad. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF OIL, CHINA AND EQUITIES There are likely a few main drivers behind this increase in pessimism, said Jim Glassman, Head Economist for Commercial Banking. One is the drama playing out in the oil markets. It s touching a lot of businesses in negative ways, and while it may end up being positive for the overall economy eventually, consumers will start spending the savings they ve accumulated from lower prices at the gas pump businesses aren t yet seeing the boon of low oil prices. The second driver is China and the reverberations businesses are feeling or are concerned about feeling resulting from the renminbi s drop off last August. What is your outlook on the following for the next 12 months? Optimistic Neutral Pessimistic LOOK BACK When you see this icon, refer to this chart for more information. 100% 80% 60% Global economy National economy Local economy Industry performance Company performance 49% 18% 14% 19% 8% 22% 43% 36% 35% 70% 40% 41% 39% 50% 46% 20% % BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK

5 A third factor worth noting is the US stock market s performance in January. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped around 10 percentage points in the first few weeks of the new year, prompting worries that a new recession might be on the horizon. These global concerns, which may be impacting executives outlooks, were shared by the Federal Reserve, said Glassman. Since December, the Fed has scaled back expectations for rate increases based on turmoil abroad. It s worth noting, however, that since that time, the stock market, oil market and credit markets have all started to recover. Timing s everything, said John Simmons, Head of Middle Market Banking & Specialized Industries. Had this survey taken place last November, the results would likely look very different. But the results are, I believe, an accurate and relevant portrait of a specific point in time. Executives are incrementally more cautious than they were a year ago, but the backdrop remains generally constructive. This is evident in the large percentage of executives who have an optimistic outlook toward their own companies. THE RIPPLE EFFECT Every year, revenue and sales growth is a leading concern for executives but this year it rose by 11 percentage points, to 74 percent. What are the top three most significant challenges facing your business in the next 12 months? 2014 Revenue/ sales growth Limited supply of talent Managing labor costs Regulatory requirements US competition Cost of commodities Foreign competition Lack of consumer confidence Availability of capital/credit Taxes 13% 12% 10% 19% 17% 31% 29% 40% 40% 74% Revenue and sales growth is always a top concern, said Glassman, but considering leaders more cautious outlook, it s no surprise that it s even more of a concern this year. All of their anxieties about business are expressed in concern about revenue and sales; so if China and the global economy are big concerns this year, that s likely reflected in outlooks about growth. The things that executives highlighted as growing concerns talent, labor costs, competition and consumer confidence are really concerns about costs and growth, he elaborated. Executives are not as worried about commodities, taxes, regulations, capital or credit as they have been in the past but concerns about managing costs, sales growth and competition all seem to be peaking. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Executives are incrementally more cautious than they were a year ago. JOHN SIMMONS, HEAD OF MIDDLE MARKET BANKING & SPECIALIZED INDUSTRIES CHASE AND J.P. MORGAN COMMERCIAL BANKING 5

6 Our world is increasingly interconnected, said Morgan McGrath, Head of International Banking for Commercial Banking. If there s bad news in China, it will shortly be translated into bad news here. Twenty-five years ago, news of a sharp downturn in Europe or Asia would have had a small ripple effect for middle market companies in the US. But given how globally integrated many of these companies have become, the impact of change overseas is immediately felt at home. ACTIONS SPEAK LOUDER THAN WORDS Given the change in sentiment, looking at overall responses may help put things into perspective. Despite the rise in pessimism, 51 percent of survey respondents are either optimistic or neutral about the global economy. The percentage of executives reporting optimistic or neutral outlooks is even higher for the national and local economies 82 percent and 86 percent, respectively. Similarly, hiring and compensation plans are fairly consistent with last year s numbers, and expectations for global sales remain flat year over year. All of these indicators imply that while the global economic environment may be causing concern about what s to come, it s not necessarily impacting how businesses are planning to operate in. Glassman offered a possible explanation for this disconnect. Everything about the consumer is turning positive, at least from a macro perspective, he said. The economy is adding more jobs; hourly pay is increasing; hours worked are up; and energy costs are down. The picture is pretty rosy for consumers, and eventually, that will trickle down to businesses. How has the decrease in oil prices impacted your organization? Positive No impact Negative 19% 34% 29% 26% 47% 45% Oil s Impact Oil is a pervasive factor influencing many businesses and touching a wide range of outlooks for from global to local to own-company performance. The majority of middle market businesses report a positive or neutral impact from the decrease in oil prices. However, the percentage of those citing a negative impact increased significantly year over year (up 10 percentage points from ). The picture is pretty rosy for consumers, and eventually, that will trickle down to businesses. 6 BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK JIM GLASSMAN, HEAD ECONOMIST, COMMERCIAL BANKING Regional differences are clearly visible. This is most evident in the South, which reflects the higher concentration of businesses tied to the oil and gas industry. Forty-three percent of respondents in the South report that oil had a negative impact on their businesses a significant increase from last year s 31 percent. Respondents in the Midwest also conveyed a significant increase 12 percentage points year over year in negative impact. The only region to report an increase in positive impact was the West, where 55 percent of middle market companies up 5 percentage points from last year claim a positive benefit from lower oil prices.

7 The impact of oil prices by region Positive No impact Negative 13% 50% 18% 55% 14% 53% 26% 49% 37% 27% 33% 25% 10% 17% 49% 45% 41% 38% 31% 38% 31% 43% 38% 19% EXECUTIVE OPINIONS ON OIL A number of survey respondents indicated that oil was a major influence in the way they view the year ahead. Here s what they revealed about its impact on their revenue and growth plans. We have always been prepared for a one- to two-year downturn in the oil and gas industry. Staring down a five-year downturn is scary. South Region, Transportation Industry The reduced price of oil has significantly reduced our sales to the oil and gas market and its support industries. The longer oil prices remain low, the more the trickle down continues to expand. South Region, Wholesale Industry Lower oil prices are both good and bad for our business. They reduce our direct costs, but they also are a drag on the regional energy economy, and this is spilling over into all industries. I expect minimal growth in. South Region, Services Industry Lower energy costs are creating significant increases in profit and sales, [so] hopefully oil and natural gas prices can remain relatively low. Midwest Region, Agriculture Industry CHASE AND J.P. MORGAN COMMERCIAL BANKING 7

8 KEY TAKEAWAY The declining global outlook is not stopping middle market executives from projecting increased sales overseas. 8 BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK

9 International Outlook CHASE AND J.P. MORGAN COMMERCIAL BANKING 9

10 A Stable View of Overseas Business Activity The pessimistic outlook toward the global economy SEE PAGE 4 is not translating into reduced overseas business for middle market companies, which still need global markets to access new customers, suppliers and materials and to stay close to their customers with global operations. The percentage of businesses that are active internationally increased slightly year over year, from 57 percent to 60 percent. Of that 60 percent, 36 percent buy products overseas; 45 percent sell abroad; 26 percent have operations outside the US; 19 percent have an international sales office; and 10 percent have an international joint venture. Do you have operations or sales outside the US? Yes No 58% % 57% 43% 60% 40% 35% 33% 36% 41% 41% 45% 25% 24% 26% 17% Active internationally: Buy Sell Operations Sales office* Joint venture* * Answer options added in 11% 19% 10% In the next five years, will your company s overseas sales: Increase Decrease Remain the same 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 22% 2% 76% 25% 4% 71% % 4% 70% What are the main objectives for your international activities in the next 12 months?* 2014 Access to new customers/markets Access to suppliers/materials Better serve domestic customers with global operations 29% 0% 20% * Note: Only the top three responses are shown 38% 40% CONFIDENCE IN FUTURE GLOBAL SALES 73% 60% 80% Seventy percent of those doing business internationally expect that their sales will increase over the next five years. Seventy-three percent of businesses that are active abroad reported that one of the main objectives for their international activity is accessing new customers and markets a number that has remained consistent over the past two years. Gaining access to suppliers and/or materials is also a primary objective (38 percent), followed by the objective to better serve domestic customers with global operations (29 percent). 10 BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK

11 US DOLLAR REACTIONS Increasingly, middle market businesses report a positive impact from the rising value of the US dollar. Twenty-three percent of survey respondents (up from 16 percent in ) reported a positive impact from the rising value of the US dollar, likely due to the lower cost of imports, while 31 percent reported a negative impact, likely due to their products being more expensive for overseas buyers. Which areas of international business are of most concern to you? 2014 Currency risk Managing a global supply chain 33% 56% The impact of the rising dollar can also be seen in increased concern about currency risk. Among business leaders who are active internationally, 56 percent feel that currency risk is a top area of concern for their businesses, up from 50 percent in. This is followed by concern about managing a global supply chain (33 percent) and managing business rules, regulations and/or risk in Asia-Pacific (26 percent). Managing business rules/regulations/ risk in Asia-Pacific Future growth expectations for emerging markets Future growth expectations for developed markets 26% 22% 22% Managing business rules/regulations/ risk in Europe 19% How has the rising value of the US dollar impacted your organization? Positive No impact Negative 100% 80% 31% 31% Managing business rules/regulations/ risk in Latin America Managing business rules/regulations/ risk in Middle East and/or Africa 8% 17% 60% 40% 20% 0% 53% 46% 23% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Note: Question asked if respondents buy, sell or have operations, a sales office or a joint venture in foreign countries China: The Long-Term View The story of China s slower growth has been dominating the news, said Morgan McGrath, Head of International Banking for Commercial Banking, and this has likely contributed to leaders worry about the global outlook. China s economy is now so large and so integral to the world economy that its slowdown is impacting US companies at home and also in foreign markets that buy US exports. However, a China that grows at a slower pace than it has in the past should have been expected. In recent years, the Chinese economy has been undergoing a structural transition as the nation matures from a manufacturing engine into a service- and consumer-driven economy, he elaborated. This transformation is one of the factors that have led to an economic slowdown, with annual GDP growth rates falling below 8 percent for the past few years and it s also contributed to pressure on the renminbi to depreciate, particularly against the US dollar. However, if China is successful in transitioning to an economy powered by consumers and services, the nation will likely have decades of excellent growth ahead. When you actually look at China s consumer sector, it s doing quite well relative to others. Their consumer sector is about one-third of their economy by comparison, the consumer sector in the US is two-thirds of the economy which means that growth opportunities will likely remain strong there, even if the news is telling us otherwise. CHASE AND J.P. MORGAN COMMERCIAL BANKING 11

12 KEY TAKEAWAY While executives expressed less concern about regulations overall, they re taking specific steps to address rising healthcare costs. 12 BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK

13 National and Local Outlook CHASE AND J.P. MORGAN COMMERCIAL BANKING 13

14 Caution Spills Into the National Economy After increasing for the past two years, optimism SEE PAGE 4 about the national economy dropped sharply in, by 29 percentage points year over year. Additionally, pessimism increased significantly by 12 percentage points year over year. However, a record number of people, 43 percent, reported a neutral outlook about the national economy, a shift that appears to be in line with the general uncertainty and caution about where the economy is headed. Regionally, respondents in the South reported the least optimism about the national economy (35 percent), while respondents in the West reported the most optimism (44 percent). Among industries, those in transportation were the least optimistic about the national economy (31 percent), while those in services were the most optimistic (52 percent). National economic outlook by region in Optimistic Neutral Pessimistic 19% 44% 17% 11% 40% 41% 37% 43% 48% All middle market 24% 18% 35% 39% 41% 43% 14 BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK

15 National economic outlook by industry in Optimistic Neutral Pessimistic Manufacturing Wholesale 41% 37% 42% 43% Services 52% 35% Construction 34% 53% 17% 20% 13% 13% A BIT BRIGHTER CLOSER TO HOME Optimism about the local economy is higher SEE PAGE 4 than it is for the global or national economies 50 percent of survey respondents reported feeling optimistic about the outlook for their local economies. Respondents in the West (62 percent) reported the most optimism about the local economy, while those in the South (24 percent) had the highest pessimism, likely due to turmoil in the oil market. Transportation 30% 49% 21% Retail 34% 49% 17% All middle market 39% 43% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Local economic outlook by region in Optimistic Neutral Pessimistic 9% 11% 10% 29% 62% 47% 44% 42% 46% All middle market 24% 14% 48% 50% 28% 36% CHASE AND J.P. MORGAN COMMERCIAL BANKING 15

16 LEARNING TO LIVE WITH REGULATIONS EXECUTIVE OPINIONS ON THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE Many survey respondents called out the upcoming presidential election as a cause for concern the responses below touch on why election years may contribute to increased economic uncertainty. Overall, there is little change from the prior year in terms of how leaders feel regulations will impact their businesses in. When asked about specific policies, leaders expressed less concern this year about almost every regulatory issue included in the survey, though the top three concerns remain consistent year over year: healthcare (68 percent, flat year over year), fiscal policy (48 percent, down 4 percentage points year over year) and corporate taxes (40 percent, down 7 percentage points year over year). It makes sense that healthcare remains the top concern for executives: 98 percent of executives reported that their companies cover health insurance for employees, and nearly all are dealing with rising costs. Forty-seven percent reported that their organizations healthcare costs have increased Election years are always a little more challenging, given the focus on the problems in the country by both the media and candidates. This tends to depress consumer confidence. NORTHEAST REGION, WHOLESALE INDUSTRY How concerned* are you about the following potential policy or regulatory threats to your business growth prospects? 2014 *Those who reported being extremely concerned or very concerned Healthcare Fiscal policy 48% 68% With the economy struggling, business will still remain flat. [The] economy Corporate taxes 40% will not change until a new president is elected. MIDWEST REGION, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Note: Only the top three responses are shown How much have healthcare costs increased at your organization over the past 12 months? There are more headwinds accumulating than tailwinds. Election year uncertainty does not help. WEST REGION, WHOLESALE INDUSTRY I don t know 4% 10+% increase 44% 0% increase 5% 1 9% increase 47% 16 BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK

17 between 1 and 9 percent over the past year, and 44 percent reported that their healthcare costs have increased by 10 percent or more. In response to the higher costs of healthcare, businesses plan to take a number of actions, including: Requiring employees to pay a greater percentage of costs (51 percent) Imposing higher deductibles (49 percent) What impact will the recent Federal Reserve interest rate increase and potential increases throughout have on your business? 100% 80% Negative No impact Positive 3% 50% 1% 54% 3% 52% 3% 50% 5% 44% Providing wellness programs (31 percent) Offering medical savings accounts (25 percent) In particular, the percentage of businesses that intend to take action by offering wellness programs and medical savings accounts surged year over year up 15 and 10 percentage points, respectively, from indicating that as they shift more responsibility to employees, they are providing them with more tools to help manage costs. 60% 40% 20% 47% 45% 45% 47% 51% In response to the costs and regulatory changes related to healthcare, what are the actions your company is planning to take in the next 12 months? % All middle market Northeast Midwest South West Require employees to pay greater percentage of costs Impose higher deductibles Provide wellness programs Offer medical savings accounts 0% 51% 49% 31% 25% 20% 40% 60% THE CONSEQUENCES OF RISING RATES This was the first year executives were asked how an increase in interest rates would impact their organizations, and 50 percent said that higher rates would have no impact on their businesses. Of those who cited a negative impact (47 percent), most attributed it to the higher cost of capital. We have a few building projects we need to complete, said one survey respondent from the West s wholesale industry. I have serious concerns [that] we are heading into a recession, so I don t want to spend capex dollars at this time but I am concerned that when the time comes to spend the money, borrowing rates might be more expensive. CHASE AND J.P. MORGAN COMMERCIAL BANKING 17

18 KEY TAKEAWAY A record number of business leaders reported being challenged by a limited supply of talent and the management of labor costs. 18 BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK

19 Company and Industry Outlook CHASE AND J.P. MORGAN COMMERCIAL BANKING 19

20 Rising Concern Around Revenue and Sales Executives are overwhelmingly positive about the SEE PAGE 4 outlook for their own businesses in the year ahead, with 70 percent of respondents saying they are optimistic, 22 percent neutral and just 8 percent pessimistic. This sentiment appears in line with their high expectations for revenue/sales and profits: 86 percent of executives expect their revenue/sales to increase or remain the same over the next year, and 85 percent expect profits to increase or remain the same. Although the majority of executives were optimistic about revenue/sales and profits, a growing number expressed lower expectations. This year, more of them projected a decrease in revenue/sales (14 percent in versus 8 percent in ) and profits (15 percent in versus 12 percent in ). In addition, slightly more forecasted lower capital expenditures (21 percent in versus 18 percent in ) and credit needs (15 percent in versus 12 percent in ). However, there were noticeable differences in regional and industry responses. revenue/sales expectations by industry Increase Remain the same Decrease Manufacturing Wholesale Services Construction Transportation Retail All middle market 0% 54% 65% 64% 64% 65% 70% 75% 25% 23% 21% 20% 21% 19% 6% 23% 12% 15% 16% 21% 7% 14% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% What are your expectations for your business for the next 12 months? Increase Remain the same Decrease 100% Revenue/sales Profits Capital expenditures Credit needs 14% 15% 21% 15% 80% 21% 25% 45% 61% 60% 65% 60% 40% 34% 20% BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK %

21 Those in the South had the lowest expectations for revenue/ sales growth likely because of their ties to oil and gas while respondents in the West were most optimistic about the coming year s revenue/sales growth. Indeed, the states in the West that drove the higher-than-average expectation to increase revenue/ sales were Washington (79 percent), California (75 percent), Arizona (75 percent) and Colorado (75 percent). Differences were evident among industries, too. Those in the services industry had the highest expectations for increased revenue/sales, while those in the transportation industry had the lowest expectations (75 percent versus 54 percent, respectively). MANAGING LABOR SUPPLY AND COSTS A record number of business leaders reported being challenged by a limited supply of talent (40 percent) and the management of labor costs (40 percent) in (see chart on page 5). Regionally, companies in the Midwest (48 percent) were much more concerned about a limited supply of candidates, while managing labor costs was a much bigger challenge for businesses in the West (52 percent). Respondents in What are your employment and compensation projections for the next 12 months? Increase Remain the same Decrease 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0 Full-time personnel 2014 Part-time personnel Compensation 8% 7% 3% 43% 74% 36% 49% % 61% 2014 the construction (63 percent) and services (50 percent) industries reported the most challenges stemming from a limited supply of talent. Survey respondents reported a slight dip in plans to increase full-time employees this year, while projections percentage of survey respondents, by region, indicating that a limited supply of talent is a top business challenge 29% 34% 35% 39% 42% 48% 30% 34% CHASE AND J.P. MORGAN COMMERCIAL BANKING 21

22 full-time personnel projections by industry Increase Remain the same Decrease Manufacturing 46% 46% 8% for part-time personnel remained fairly flat. Taken together, their responses appear to indicate that most companies intend to keep their hiring and employment plans consistent year over year. Wholesale Services 48% 69% 43% 9% 26% 5% Regionally, full-time personnel projections were consistent, except for the South, where businesses were less likely to increase full-time employees. Construction Transportation 47% 56% 37% 38% 6% 16% On an industry level, companies in the services industry (69 percent) were most likely to increase full-time hires over the next year, while those in transportation (47 percent) were most likely to decrease hiring for full-time positions. Retail All middle market 0% 54% 45% 1% 49% 43% 8% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% When asked what their primary reasons were for decreasing full-time hires, most leaders cited insufficient demand (71 percent), followed by worries about the economic recovery (45 percent), which moved ahead of increased efficiency/productivity (34 percent) for the first time. Those who reported a lack of demand and concern about the recovery increased fairly significantly year over year by 15 percentage points and 14 percentage points, respectively. full-time personnel projections by region Increase Remain the same Decrease 6% 6% 8% 43% 51% 53% 49% 41% 43% All middle market 11% 8% 43% 49% 46% 43% 22 BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK

23 How concerned are you about a limited supply of candidates with the right skill set? What will be the primary focus of your company s growth strategies over the next 12 months? 2014 Not at all concerned 9% Extremely concerned 6% Attract new customers 58% A little concerned 16% Very concerned Expand/ diversify offerings 54% Somewhat concerned 41% 28% Up-sell/ cross-sell Expand US markets 37% 44% Among those who plan to increase hiring, 81 percent plan to do so because of anticipated sales growth. A new answer option employee turnover/retiring employees was added to the survey this year. It was the second most selected answer overall (39 percent) and especially resonated with those in the construction and transportation industries. Acquisitions Expand global markets 0% 20% 20% 18% 40% 60% Filling positions that require a specific skill set remains a top challenge for middle market executives, with 34 percent of respondents reporting that they re extremely concerned or very concerned about the limited supply of candidates with the requisite skills. The top three most in-demand skills this year are: Technical/trade skills Managerial skills PLANS FOR GROWTH REMAIN CONSISTENT Although a greater number of executives anticipated revenue and sales challenges in, they don t appear to be changing their growth strategies year over year. Most companies plan to grow by attracting new customers, expanding and/or diversifying their offerings and upselling/cross-selling to existing clients. Communication skills To address the talent shortage, leaders intend to take a number of steps, including: Developing in-house training programs Offering higher wages to attract applicants with the specific skills needed Partnering with local community colleges to improve skills in the talent pool Increasing attempts to recruit and retain older workers CHASE AND J.P. MORGAN COMMERCIAL BANKING 23

24 24 BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK

25 Conclusion CHASE AND J.P. MORGAN COMMERCIAL BANKING 25

26 Changing Perspectives This year s report presents a different picture than in prior years of how executives view the global, national and local economies, with higher levels of pessimism across the board. However, it s important to keep this year s results in perspective. While it s true that international stressors are casting long shadows on the business outlook, concern about the current business environment is one thing taking action is another. And ultimately, leaders plans don t seem to be changing much in. Year over year, they re focused on the same strategies and challenges, and executives appear less concerned about the regulations facing their industries than they have been in the past. There s reason to hope that this year will provide more opportunities to be optimistic than initially expected. Furthermore, nothing is set in stone. In last year s Business Leaders Outlook report, there was a growing optimism among middle market leaders about the economy and the business outlook. This year s survey was fielded at a unique time in the market and a lot can change in a year s time. As markets rebound and the presidential election comes to a close, there s reason to hope that this year will provide more opportunities to be optimistic than initially expected. 26 BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK

27 About the Survey WHAT IS THE BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK SURVEY? In its sixth straight year, the Business Leaders Outlook Survey* continues to provide a snapshot of the current business environment, the trends influencing that environment and the decision making of the executives who operate in it. This year s survey was conducted from January 12 to 29,. Who took the survey The results are based on responses from 1,394 senior executives from middle market companies in various industries across the country. Other 6% President 11% Owner 14% CEO/Chairman 27% Where their companies are based CFO 42% Number of company employees 5,000+ 2% 1,000 to 4,999 13% 500 to % 250 to % 1 to 99 27% 100 to % Northeast West Midwest 17% 16% 35% South 32% * The results of this online survey are within statistical parameters for validity, and the error rate is plus or minus 2.5 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval CHASE AND J.P. MORGAN COMMERCIAL BANKING 27

28 28 BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK

29 About Our Experts CHASE AND J.P. MORGAN COMMERCIAL BANKING 29

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31 JIM GLASSMAN Head Economist Commercial Banking As Managing Director and Head Economist for Commercial Banking, Jim Glassman provides market insights to help clients better understand the changing economy and its impact on their businesses. Jim also works closely with the firm s Investment Bank, Chief Investment Office, and Investor Relations and Government Relations groups, providing financial analysis and research to these partners. Jim has a master s degree in economics from the University of Illinois at Chicago, and he earned his PhD in economics from Northwestern University. MORGAN MCGRATH Head of International Banking Commercial Banking Morgan McGrath is Head of International Banking and is responsible for the global relationship management of Commercial Banking clients. He has extensive experience in Investment Banking and Commercial Banking client coverage. Throughout his career, Morgan has worked with a wide range of US and foreign companies, financial institutions and governments in Europe, the Americas and Asia-Pacific. JOHN SIMMONS Head of Middle Market Banking & Specialized Industries Commercial Banking John Simmons is the Head of Middle Market Banking & Specialized Industries. He began his banking career in 1992 with J.P. Morgan, and over the last 24 years, he s held leadership positions in the Financial Institutions Group, Debt Capital Markets, Equity Capital Markets and Telecom, Media & Technology Investment Banking. Prior to his current position, John served as Co-Head of J.P. Morgan s Financial Institutions Group and managed the firm s relationships with many of North America s largest banks. CHASE AND J.P. MORGAN COMMERCIAL BANKING 31

32 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. Chase and J.P. Morgan are marketing names for certain businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries. The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary, in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the information and any views contained herein may differ from that contained in J.P. Morgan research reports