Where Is the Canadian Economy Going and Why

Transcription

1 Where Is the Canadian Economy Going and Why Following a 10 Week Period of Profit Downgrades and Capital Expenditure Cuts, CEOs are Guardedly Optimistic, Believe that IMF Forecasts Are Too Negative, and Predict Somewhat More Hiring over the Next 12 Months. They Base their Optimism on the Quality of U.S. Government s Economic Performance and Stock Market Indications but Not on the Canadian Government s Economic Performance. CIBC/Chamber Weekly CEO/Business Leader Poll by COMPAS in the Financial Post for Publication November 26 COMPAS Inc. Public Opinion and Customer Research

2 Canadian Business Leaders Cautiously Optimistic See Signs of a Turnaround Canadian CEOs are guardedly optimistic about the directions of the Canadian economy over the next 12 months. In the public squabble over economic forecasts between the IMF on the one hand and the Canadian Finance Minister and U.S. Treasury head on the other, CEOs think that the IMF has been slightly pessimistic, as shown in table 1. Table 1: As you know, the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is to foster economic growth and monitor national economies around the world. Just recently, the IMF reduced its forecast of Canadian economic growth to 1.4 for 2001 and 0.8 for The Bank of Canada Governor and Finance Minister Martin said that the IMF forecast underestimates Canada s likely real rate of growth. Is the IMF forecast Far too high * Too high 6 About right 54 Too low 31 Far too low 2 Undecided, not applicable, or do not wish to answer 6 Looking ahead six months, CEOs and business leaders have become more optimistic than they were a month ago. As shown in table 2, a month ago respondents were divided equally between optimists and pessimists. Today, those who predict better conditions in six months account for half of respondents (53) and outnumber more than 2:1 those who foresee worse economic conditions. Table 2: Looking forward six months, do you predict that economic conditions in Canada will be Week 1 Week 5 Much better than right now 4 5 Somewhat better About the same Somewhat worse Much worse 5 2 1

3 Undecided, not applicable, or do not wish to answer - 0 In keeping with their tendency to optimism, CEOs and business leaders tend to foresee increased hiring over the next 12 months. Thus, 32 foresee increased hiring compared to 51 predicting no change, and 14, layoffs, as shown in table 3. Table 3: Do you expect your firm or organization to reduce or increase its workforce over the next 12 months? Increase a lot 2 Increase somewhat 30 No change 51 Reduce somewhat 14 Reduce a lot * Undecided, not applicable, or do not wish to answer 2 Respondents volunteered their own thoughts: I foresee the economy going sideways until 2002 and then start to move gradually. The current economic downturn is less severe than those in the early 80's and 90's which tells a positive story in itself. The strong position of the Canadian economy over the past 6 years bodes well for the majority of companies to survive this mini-recession. Obviously my answers indicate somewhat mixed feelings. I can say that while I expected a serious downturn in business, I am seeing new business coming in from unexpected sources. Past 10 Weeks Lowered Profit Estimates and Reduced Capital Spending The optimism shown by CEOs for the future contrasts with their reports of profit cuts and layoffs over the past 10 weeks. As shown in table 4, CEOs reporting reduced profit estimates outnumber those reporting increased profit estimates by a factor greater than 2:1.In a similar vein, those reporting capital expenditure reductions outnumber those reporting increases in capital expenditure by a factor of more than 2:1, as shown in table 5. 2

4 Table 4: In the last 10 weeks, have the 12-month financial or profit estimates of your firm or organization been revised Upwards a lot 1 Upwards somewhat 14 Not changed 40 Downwards somewhat 31 Downwards a lot 7 Undecided, not applicable, or do not wish to answer 6 Table 5: In the last 10 weeks, has the 12-month capital spending plan of your firm or organization been revised? Upwards a lot 1 Upwards somewhat 13 Not changed 43 Downwards somewhat 31 Downwards a lot 6 Undecided, not applicable, or do not wish to answer 6 Explaining the Past Slowdown and Predicting the Future Recovery Reasons for Recovery U.S. Government s Economic Performance the Strongest Factor, the Canadian Government s Economic Performance the Weakest Factor As shown in table 6, CEOs report that their greater reason for optimism stems from the U.S. government s economic performance. Another important factor is evidence of strength in the stock market. The Canadian government s economic performance earns the least credit among five variables scored by CEOs. Table 6: Please rate each of the following factors as a cause of optimism for the future of the Canadian economy using a 7 point scale where 7 3

5 means a major source of optimism and 1, not a source of optimism [ROTATE] U.S. government s economic performance The evidence of strength in the stock market U.S. military success in Afghanistan Other economic indicators Canadian government s economic performance Mean DNK** * * *Note: Less than 0.5 **Note: Worded as undecided, not applicable, or do not wish to answer Reasons for the Slowdown The Normal Recession, September 11, and Fear of Terrorism, Not Saudi or Global Instability As shown in table 7, CEOs attribute the slowdown to the normal cyclical downturn, to September 11, and to fear of more terrorism. Uncertainty about either the Saudi or World situation is not considered a major factor in the downturn. Table 7: Please rate each of the following factors as a cause of the present economic downturn using a 7 point scale where 7 means a major cause and 1, not a cause [ROTATE] The normal recession that North America was going to experience anyhow even before the Sept 11 th terrorism The immediate impact of the Sept 11 th attack itself U.S. economic uncertainty for fear of more terrorism Mean DNK** * * Uncertainty about the

6 global political situation Uncertainty about the stability of Saudi Arabia and other Middle East oil producers *Note: Less than 0.5 **Note: Worded as undecided, not applicable, or do not wish to answer Politically and Terrorist-Minded vs. Non-Politically Minded CEOs CEOs tend to divide among themselves with respect to the lens that they use to explain the downturn or forecast the economic future. A multivariate statistical procedure known as factor analysis was applied to the two batteries or series of questions about considerations that would account for the slowdown or explain why the future beacons with optimism. The factor analysis yielded two distinct factors, a factor that dealt with narrowly economic considerations such as stock market performance and the economic performance of the U.S. government and a factor that measured the perceived importance of terrorism and politics. This dual pattern suggests that some CEOs place special importance on the global political and terrorist setting while others focus on traditionally narrow economic considerations. Respondents volunteered their own thoughts about the factors accounting for the recent slowdown and driving the future recovery: The Sept 11 event may well have had the effect of compressing contributions to an economic downturn but the economy was well overheated at the time. The economic downturn has fundamentally very little to do with the events of Sept. 11; but 9/11 is a convenient "fall guy" for a lot of things that were happening anyway. A moderate, natural downturn was occurring before any of the current world events. Too many companies are using these events as an excuse for their own poor performance. Uncertainty remains the major drag on the economy and decisive action by all governments and particularly the Canadian government in security and control of destructive people and acts is key to economic growth. 5

7 The media should tone down the recession scare...stop screaming doom and gloom so much...they are sometimes responsible for creating so much fear it becomes self full-filling. Methodology The National Post/COMPAS web-survey of CEOs and leaders of small and large corporations and among executives of the local and national Chambers of Commerce was conducted November 20-22, Because of the small population of CEOs and business leaders from which the sample was drawn, the study can be considered more accurate than comparably sized general public studies. In studies of the general public, surveys of n=245 are deemed accurate to within times out of 20. The principal and co-investigators on this study are Conrad Winn Ph.D. and Robert Laufer. 6