Paul Martin in New York: Business Panel Enthusiastic about PM s Blunt Talk, Ambivalent about his Veiled Threat, and Against Re-Opening NAFTA

Transcription

1 Paul Martin in New York: Business Panel Enthusiastic about PM s Blunt Talk, Ambivalent about his Veiled Threat, and Against Re-Opening NAFTA BDO Dunwoody/Chamber Weekly CEO/Business Leader Poll by COMPAS in the Financial Post for Publication October 17, COMPAS Inc. Public Opinion and Customer Research October 17,

2 Financial Post for Publication October 17, 1.0. Introduction The business panel is enthusiastic about the Prime Minister s blunt speech in New York on softwood lumber, giving him and his government one of the highest performance scores to date 67%. 1 They are delighted by his frank talk about softwood but not so sure about his veiled threat to redirect oil to China and India. They feel that the Prime Minister was long overdue in addressing the issue forcefully but that it is foolish to make an empty threat. As for NAFTA, a majority does not want the treaty re-opened, fearing that a NAFTA successor would be less favourable to Canada, not more. Panellists feel that Canada-U.S. relations are in a bad state but they do not feel this way any more strongly than in past months. They repudiate at least as strongly as in the summer a union leader s call for oil exports to the U.S. to be blocked. These are the key findings from the week s web survey of CEOs and business leaders undertaken by COMPAS for the Financial Post under sponsorship of BDO Dunwoody LLP and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce Martin s Frank Talk Scores But Not Necessarily His Veiled Threat Business panellists are bullish on the Prime Minister s blunt speech in New York, as shown in table 2A, but not quite so sure about his veiled threat to redirect oil exports to India and China. On the positive side, they give Martin a moderately positive evaluation even for his veiled threat, as shown in table 2B. On the negative side, they feel that it was foolish to make a veiled threat with little prospect of being carried out, as shown in table 3. While panellists oppose strongly veiled threats with little prospect of implementation, they are not hard on Martin for having done so. Their inclination to forgive his veiled threat probably arises from sheer delight that he spoke up. They feel that he was long overdue in doing so and that his speech was the best thing he had done on the file, as 1 About half of the federal government s performance scores have been failing grades, the lowest being for fighting terrorism (40%) and handling corporate taxes and the income trust issue (41%) and the highest being for creating an independent ethics commissioner (81%) and sending aid after Katrina (75%). 1

3 Financial Post for Publication October 17, shown in table 2C. Martin s score for his speech is dramatically higher than the score he earned in August for his general handling of bilateral relations (table 2A). Table 2A: (Q5) On a 100 point school report card scale, what score would you give Paul Martin for his performance in his New York speech? MEAN DNK October 67 2 August Table 2B: (Q1) As you may know Prime Minister Paul Martin recently addressed the Economic Club of New York, where he discussed such topics as softwood lumber, China-India trade, and energy. Using a 7-point scale where 7 means strongly agree and 1, the opposite, to what extent do you agree with [ROTATE] Mr. Martin s declaration that the the U.S. approach to softwood brings into question the integrity of NAFTA in general, and the efficacy of the dispute resolution mechanism in particular and that U.S. action was a breach of faith What the media interpreted as a veiled or not so veiled threat to direct Canadian energy exports to India and China if the United States does not change its policy on softwood MEAN dnk August wording: On a 100 point school report card scale, what score would you give Paul Martin for his performance on Canada-American relations? 2

4 Financial Post for Publication October 17, Table 2C: (Q2) Using the 7 point agree-disagree scale, please indicate how you feel about the following opinions [RANDOMIZE] Mr. Martin was long overdue in being vigorous about the softwood issue It is foolish to make subtle or not so subtle threats that have little prospect of begin carried out Mr. Martin s speech was the best thing he has done on the issue Mr. Martin made a veiled threat that he and Canada would never carry out Mr. Martin s veiled threat was dangerous for the auto industry and other exporters because they are very dependent on the U.S. market and increasingly vulnerable because of the rising loonie Mr. Martin s ultimate motive was winning some seats in B.C. The Martin government would have been more effective had it done a better PR job on Canadian aid after Katrina than in making veiled threats MEAN dnk Don t Re-Open NAFTA Canada Could Be Worse Off Panellists tend to oppose re-opening the NAFTA agreement (table 3A), largely because they suspect that the successor treaty would be less favourable to Canada than the current one (table 3B). 3

5 Financial Post for Publication October 17, Table 3A: (Q6) On a 7 point scale where 7 means should be reopened and 1, the opposite, should Canada seek to reopen the NAFTA greement? MEA N dnk Table 3B: (Q7) If NAFTA were renegotiated do you think the new agreement would be [ROTATE POLES] % Much less favourable to Canada than the current situation 24 Somewhat less favourable 31 About the same 25 Somewhat more favourable 14 Much more favourable to Canada than the current situation 3 Don t know/refused Can-Am Relations Remain Poor Unionist s Proposal to Block Oil Exports Resoundingly Repudiated Panellists perceive Can-Am relations to be in a poor state but there is a hint that they may perceive relations to be improving (table 4A). They remain as opposed as ever to the lumber union leader s proposal to block all oil exports to the U.S. in retaliation for American action on softwood, as shown in table 4B. 4

6 Financial Post for Publication October 17, Table 4A: (Q3) Thinking back over more than a century of Canada-U.S. relations, would you say that Can-Am relations this season were [ROTATE POLES] OCTOBER AUGUST MARCH The very worst we ve had Among the worst Worse than average Better than average Among the best The very best Don t know/refused Table 4B: (Q4) A lumber union leader called for blocking all oil exports to the U.S. in retaliation. Is this [ROTATE POLES] OCTOBER AUGUST A very poor idea A poor idea A good idea A very good idea 2 4 Don t know/refused Methodology The National Post/COMPAS web-survey of CEOs and leaders of small, medium, and large corporations and among executives of the local and national Chambers of Commerce was conducted October 12-14,. Respondents constitute an essentially hand-picked panel with a higher numerical representation of small and medium-sized firms. Because of the small population of CEOs and business leaders from which the sample was drawn, the study can be considered more accurate than comparably sized general public studies. In studies of the general public, surveys of 127 are deemed accurate to within approximately 8.7 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The principal and co-investigator on this study are Conrad Winn, Ph.D and Tamara Gottlieb. 5