Canada and World Economic Crisis: Harper Earns High Grades But Canada Has Limited Ability to Protect the Economy from Threats to Export Sector

Transcription

1 Canada and World Economic Crisis: Harper Earns High Grades But Canada Has Limited Ability to Protect the Economy from Threats to Export Sector BDO Dunwoody Weekly CEO/Business Leader Poll By COMPAS in Canadian Business For Publication October 23, 2008 COM P AS Inc. Public Opinion and Customer Research October 23, 2008

2 1.0. Introduction Prime Minister Stephen Harper earns high grades for his post-election response to the world economic crisis but Canadian governments have only a moderate capability of protecting the economy, according to CEOs and business leaders on the COMPAS business panel. Panelists see the challenge as a threat to exports rather more than to financial institutions as a result of toxic investments. These are the key findings from this past week s Internet survey of CEOs and business leaders on the COMPAS panel. The weekly business survey is undertaken for Canadian Business magazine under sponsorship of BDO Dunwoody LLP Findings The overwhelming majority (84%) of panelists see Canadian governments as having at most enough power to moderate slightly the impact on Canadian business of world economic problems, as shown in table 2A. On balance, panelists see our economic problems as a threat to our exports much more than as a result of toxic investments by our financial institutions, as shown in table 2B. A total of 56% see the problem as substantially or entirely an export problem as compared to 8% who see the problem as substantially or entirely a toxic investment problem while 30% see the problem as an equal mix of the two. The Prime Minister earns solid to high grades for this post-election response to the crisis especially high grades for his proposed spending control, as shown in table 2C. 2

3 Table 2A: (Q2) In light of the nature of the problems confronting the world economy and in light of the economic power available to Canadian governments, would you say that Canadian governments ROTATE POLES (%) Lack the power to lessen the impact on Canadian business of world economic problems 20 Have enough power to moderate slightly the impact on Canadian business of world economic problems 64 Have enough power to moderate significantly the impact on Canadian business of world economic problems 14 Have most or all of the necessary power to insulate Canadian business from the impacts of the world s economic problems 1 Don t know or no opinion 1 Table 2B: (Q1) Do you foresee the potential recession in Canada stemming ROTATE POLES (%) Almost entirely the impact of economic problems abroad on our export sector 16 Substantially from the impact of economic problems abroad on our export sector 40 Partly exposure to toxic investments and partly the impact of economic problems abroad on our export sector 30 Substantially from exposure to toxic investments 4 Almost entirely from weakness among Canadian financial institutions as a result of exposure to toxic financial investments in Canada, the U.S., or 4 abroad Other 2 Don t know or not certain 4 3

4 Table 2C: (Q3) On a 100 point scale, what grade would you give Prime Minister Harper for his recent announcement of efforts to stem the negative impact on Canada of world economic problems. The Prime Minister s six steps were these: Keeping government spending focused and under control by continuing a four-year review of government departmental spending. Summoning Parliament to meet this fall and tabling an economic update before the end of November. Participating in the Group of 20 finance ministers' meeting on November 8 and 9 and calling for a further meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers to build on progress made at their meeting. Taking whatever appropriate steps are necessary to ensure that Canada's financial system is not put at a competitive disadvantage. Discussing the crisis at Friday's Canada European Union Summit and talking about strengthening the economic partnership with this bloc. Convening a meeting with the premiers and territorial leaders on the economy to discuss a joint approach to the global financial crisis. Mean The following verbatims provide a nuanced sense of panelists opinions: Adding liquidity to financial institutions only as needed. To include safeguards for taxpayer investment and a realistic pay back schedule. As a result of the credit crisis, it has clearly shown that sophisticated business leaders do make huge mistakes. Other countries have gone the route of injecting capital, as 4

5 any regular shareholder would be asked to do, which coupled with better legislation and oversight, will hopefully stop most of the excesses of the past. There is no reason why existing shareholders should not be diluted and no reason why the taxpayer should not benefit from the lifeline being thrown to banks. Harper should also keep the Canadian dollar low to increase exports, should reduce all levels of taxation to encourage spending and keep spending under control. I do not want to see Canada go into deficit again as that is a program that just feeds on itself and the deficit (and debt) just gets larger. Provide a steady hand as events unfold. This is no time for political rhetoric. Building cooperation with the other parties rather than "bullying" and contending that the opposition will not work (bend to his will)... Must work with the opposition and compromise to reflect the will of the voters. Consider further economic stimulus through infrastructure and R&D investment, even if it results in a modest deficit in the short term. Continue to lay out the differences between the U.S. and Canadian lending practices. Confidence in our banking system and dissuade banks from deploying unreasonable and restrictive lending policies. Do what is necessary to keep our financial institutions stable and ensure that liquidity in the credit markets. Ensuring the financial community does not create idiocy in such schemes as sub-prime and clearly indicating to investors the strength of the Canadian economy. He should be intervening with public funds as little as possible and perhaps with nothing. Stay the course on a balanced or surplus budget as long as possible because as 5

6 the recession inevitably deepens he will have to resort to deficit financing because of a shrinking tax base. Implement a credit rating system on investments from both inside the country and outside to reflect the risk of the investment. Change the audit responsibilities of audit firms handling public companies to make them responsible for the audits they complete. Investing in infrastructure, rebuilding the railroads and green technologies to stimulate the economy. Maximize support given the difficulties facing small business and support small business with easy loans through banks. These are rough times created by inspection agencies for exporters and aggressive demands from shipping companies. These should be explored by the PMO. Promote a "Made in Canada" model for almost every sector of the economy, especially in the cultural and identity areas. We have a lot to be proud of - we shouldn't hide it! The issues confronting us are global in nature. Sadly the United States is in so much trouble with respect to debt they will no longer be able to help, unless Gordon Brown's recommendation to bail it out through a second international fund (IMF2) underpinned by China is adopted. The best thing our Prime Minister can do is to support that recommendation and then, as we should have done long ago, and that is to start diversifying our export portfolio to not only the United States. Working on programs to support the manufacturing sector and promote jobs in Ontario. He should be doing everything to broadcast the strength of the Canadian banking system compare to the U.S. system. 6

7 3.0 Methodology The COMPAS web-survey of CEOs and leaders of small, medium, and large corporations was conducted October 16 17, Respondents constitute an essentially hand-picked panel with a higher numerical representation of small and medium-sized firms. Because of the small population of CEOs and business leaders from which the sample was drawn, the study can be considered more accurate than comparably sized general public studies. In studies of the general public, surveys of 137 are deemed accurate to within approximate 8.4 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The principal and co-investigator on this study are Conrad Winn, Ph.D. and Tamara Gottlieb. 7