Integrity the Missing Promise in a Campaign with Record Promises, Conservatives Score on Taxes and Defence, Backlash against Liberals on Handgun Law:

Transcription

1 Integrity the Missing Promise in a Campaign with Record Promises, Conservatives Score on Taxes and Defence, Backlash against Liberals on Handgun Law: Campaign Platforms Part II BDO Dunwoody Weekly CEO/Business Leader Poll by COMPAS in the Financial Post COMPAS Inc. Public Opinion and Customer Research December 19, 2005

2 1.0 Introduction The business panel sees the campaign as beginning with a record number of promises, most of which are of middling value partly constructive, partly unconstructive. Among the promises made in the week preceding the survey, the Conservatives outperform the Liberals for the second time. The Conservatives do very well on their tax and defence proposals while the Liberals promise of new handgun legislation triggers a backlash. The big missing element, volunteer the CEOs and business leaders on the panel, is an articulated campaign commitment to institutional reforms that would assure integrity in government. These are the key findings from this week s survey of the COMPAS/Financial Post business panel under sponsorship of BDO Dunwoody LLP. 2.0 Unusual Volume of Promises Mostly of Moderate Value Integrity the Missing Element Panellists perceive the federal campaign as beginning with an unusual volume of party promises (table 2A), most of which are of middling value to the country (table 2B). Respondents tend not to take the campaign promises seriously because of a tendency to view them as trial balloons, as one respondent put it, rather than as authentic commitments. Politicians invariably develop amnesia within days of being elected, volunteered one CEO. It doesn't matter how much they promise, volunteered a CFO, we will be lucky to see one-tenth of them. The two areas that most miss attention from the parties, according to respondents, are the area of (a) integrity and institutional reform and (b) taxation (table 2C). In the broad area of integrity and institutional reform, the most frequent references are to a need for integrity performance standards, Senate reform, and limits on government growth. Other verbatims: Fixed terms of government. A coherent plan. The promises are ad hoc and are more like trial balloons. Laws that make penalties for those who break the law that are meaningful and fit the crime Jail sentences for mismanaging public funds. 1

3 With respect to missing tax promises, respondents call for a range of provisions from measures to protect manufacturing to across-the-board cuts to a flat tax. Some of the more pointed opinions related to national unity and Canada-U.S. relations. On national unity, We need meaningful reform with respect to unity, volunteered one panelist. This country is sleep walking to a disaster - the only real beneficiaries of this election will be separatists. We need to meaningfully redefine the country, before we loose it! On relations with our neighbour, I read a report this morning that our trade surplus with the U.S. is increasing in our favour, volunteered a CEO. Someone should tell Paul Martin to be more diplomatic. Martin's pandering to anti-american sentiment is revolting, opined an officer of one Canada s largest corporations. Table 2A: (Q2) Generally speaking, would you say that the volume of party promises is [ROTATE POLES] A lot more than usual for an election 30 Somewhat more 36 About the same 30 Somewhat less 2 A lot less than usual for an election 2 Don t know or no opinion 0 Table 2B: (Q3) Generally speaking, how constructive would you describe most promises from the perspective of making the Canadian economy function well [ROTATE POLES] Highly constructive 2 Constructive 22 Partly constructive, partly not 61 Not constructive 12 Not at all constructive 3 Don t know or no opinion 0 Table 2C: Q4) What s the most important promise that is missing? Honesty/integrity/institutional reform 40 Other tax cuts/flat tax/reduce debt 25 2

4 Economic strategy/infrastructure/canada U.S. trade 11 Privatize or improve health care 6 Other 4 Don t know or no opinion Conservatives Trump Liberals Again Backlash Against Liberals Handgun Promise Conservative promises of the preceding week trump Liberals ones, as shown in table 3. Conservatives score highly among the panellists in respect of their many tax provisions, defence policy, and cancer strategy. Conservatives do well, albeit less so, in respect of parental tax provisions for physical fitness. Liberals do well in respect of their general income tax cut commitment while doing poorly in respect of their proposed handgun legislation. Table 3: (Q1) Please share your thoughts and assessments about the following early campaign proposed promises of the parties in the federal election. On a 100 point school report card-type scale where 100 is the highest score, please score each of the following party promises [RANDOMIZE] Mean DNK The Conservatives for doubling to $ 2000 the amount seniors can deduct in the case of registered pension or RRSP income 77 0 The Conservatives for lowering small business taxes 77 0 The Conservatives for promises to safeguard seniors savings by protecting income trusts and preventing inheritance taxes 75 0 The Conservatives for an Apprenticeship Job Creation Tax Credit to subsidize apprenticeship wages by 10 up to 74 0 $ 2000 a year The Conservatives for enhancing Canadian sovereignty by acquiring strategic lift aircraft, creating a new airborne battalion, and doubling the size of Canada s Disaster Assistance 69 0 Response Team (DART) The Conservatives for a $ 50 million a year Canadian Strategy for Cancer Control to improve coordination, screening, prevention, and knowledge sharing

5 The Conservatives for allowing parents tax deductions for registration fees up to $ 500 for each child in a physical fitness program The Liberals for cutting personal income taxes by an unspecified amount to allow middle class families to keep more of what they earn The Liberals for changing the law to allow provinces to make handguns illegal as a form of crime prevention Mean DNK Methodology The COMPAS web-survey of CEOs and leaders of small, medium, and large corporations and among executives of the local and national Chambers of Commerce was conducted December 14-16, Respondents constitute an essentially handpicked panel with a higher numerical representation of small and medium-sized firms. Because of the small population of CEOs and business leaders from which the sample was drawn, the study can be considered more accurate than comparably sized general public studies. In studies of the general public, surveys of 123 are deemed accurate to within approximately 8.9 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The principal and co-investigator on this study are Conrad Winn, Ph.D and Tamara Gottlieb. 4