World Geographic Shares

Transcription

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2 Panel Sponsored by

3 World Geographic Shares North America South America Europe Africa Asia Australia / N.Z. 18% 13% 7% 22% 33% 6%

4 World Population Shares, 2002 North America South America Europe Africa Asia Australia / N.Z. 6% 8% 12% 13% 61% 0.5%

5 World GDP Shares, 2001 North America South America Europe Africa Asia Australia / N.Z. 38% 4% 28% 2% 27% 1%

6 Projected World GDP Shares, 2030 North America South America Europe Africa Asia Australia / N.Z. 25% 3% 12.5% 0.7% 58% 0.8%

7 World Biggest Consumer Loses Confidence Index 160 US Consumer confidence index

8 Changing Size of Major Economies $15T Purchasing Power Parity GDP U.S. Europe Greater Japan China* *Includes China, Hong Kong and Taiwan

9 2002 (E) Share of World Population Indonesia 4% Others 49% US 5% Euro Area 5% India 17% China 20%

10 2002 (E) Share of World GDP Japan 13% China UK 4% 5% Others 25% Euro Area 21% US 32%

11 2002 US Human Capital $206 Trillion Human and Social Capital 77% US Financial Assets 23% $550,000 per person million people

12 Other Financial Assets 16% Pension Reserves 16% All Equities 14% 2002 U.S. Balance Sheet $48 Trillion Credit Market Instruments Deposits 10% Real Estate 30% Other Tangible Assets 9%

13 The Emerging Marketplace in America Percent Increase % 258% % % 95% 0 50% Total 7% Minority Afr. Amer. Non-Minority Amer. Indian Asian Hispanic

14 The Money Price of Freedom $75 Billion projected cost of Iraqi freedom $546 per employed worker 2% of individual income 6% of individual paid income tax 3.6% of all tax collected last year $263 per capita cost to the every US citizen Finance over 10 years, it will cost about 10 cents a day

15 War and GDP % Real GDP Growth WWII Korea Vietnam Gulf I

16 War and Inflation % Inflation Rate WWII Korea Vietnam Gulf I

17 War and GDP % Month Treasury Bill Rate WWII Korea Vietnam Gulf I

18 War and Jobs % of Labor Force Unemployment Rate WWII Korea Vietnam Gulf I

19 Wars and Budget % of GDP Surplus/Deficit Vietnam Gulf I

20 When is the Rebound?

21 Want to be Nauseous?

22 Can the Bull Run Again?

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24 Percent Change 15 Are Japan s Best Days Past? GDP Growth : High Growth :Moderate Growth : Stagnation

25 Gross Domestic Product Percent Change, Year Ago Japan Germany United States

26 Japan: Unemployment 1,040,000 Jobs Lost Last Year Thousands of Jobs Created in Trailing 12 Months All Sector Manufacturing Sector ,000 jobs lost in 2 months

27 Thousands Japan: Unemployment January 1980 January 2003 Persons Unemployed (L) Unemployment rate (R) U-Rate

28 Percent Japan - Unemployment Japan vs. US Unemployment Rate U.S. 6 4 Japan

29 Household Financial Assets Dec Deposits Bonds Equities Insurance and Pension Other Fin. Assets US: 29 Trillion US$ 13% 10% 31% 30% 16% Japan: 12 Trillion US$ 56% 3% 6% 29% 6%

30 Percent Change, Year Ago 10 8 No-Interest Loans? Short-Term and Long-Term 3-Month Interbank 10-Year Government Bond

31 Japan s Bank Lending Decline Percent Change, Year Ago

32 Have Japanese Investors Given Up? US$ 6,081,600,000,000 earning <1% In 30 years, $6 trillion would grow to: 1% $8.2 Interest Rate 5% 10% $26.3 $106.1 The foregone $18 trillion would pay an average U.S. worker for 500 million years!

33 US vs. EU Unemployment Percent EU: Jan 2003, 7.9% US: Jan 2003, 5.7%

34 Labor rigidity => Lower Access To Capital Max = Unionization Index Capital Access Index 2003 (L) Unionization Index (r) US UK Germany Hong Kong France Japan China 0.0

35 Law and Access to Capital CAI Civil Law Common Law Islamic Law Customary

36 Burden on the Future (% of GDP) Austria France Germany Greece Netherlands Portugal Spain Deficit Public Debt

37 US vs. EU Unemployment Percent EU: Jan 2003, 7.9% US: Jan 2003, 5.7%

38 China s International Transactions Exports and Imports as Percent of GDP Percent Exports Imports

39 Will China Catch Up With Japan? US$ Billion Japanese Export China Export E 04E 05E

40 China - Foreign Direct Investment US$ Billions

41 China Financial System Loan Assets Stateowned, foreign and government 89% Domestic non-state 11%

42 Post Secondary Education and The Market Return NASDAQ Composite Index S&P 500 Index Post Secondary Education Index

43 Earning Power of 30-Year-Old Man With High School Diploma 1974 $37, $32, $32, Dollars Knowledge Universe, Milken Institute

44 Investment in Human Capital as a Percent of GDP 9-11% Schooling Percent 4 6% 4 8%??? On the Job Training Health Adult Education

45 Wealth Today Resides in Human Capital Becker and others estimate that roughly 70% of a nation s wealth today is in the form of human capital rather than physical capital. The pecuniary returns to knowledge, education and skill are very high in the United States and even higher outside the most developed countries.

46 The India Opportunity Projected High School and Higher Education Enrollment By 2010, higher education enrollment is projected to increase to 11.7 million from 2.1 million in 2000, with public universities restricted to a privileged few? 700,000 MBAs in demand, yet only 4,000 granted per year? 30% of students attend private universities Millions Secondary Higher

47 Post-Secondary Education Percent Percent of Year Olds Enrolled in Post-Secondary Education Brazil 3 4 China India 3 14 Japan Mexico Spain Malaysia South Korea 8 U.S.

48 Asian Higher Education Landscape Percent Workforce with Secondary Education or Better Year 2000 Year Thailand Japan China South Korea Hong Kong Taiwan

49 Median Pay Before & After MBA, 2002 US$ Thousands Pre-MBA Post-MBA Harvard Columbia MIT Chicago Cornell Stanford Pennsylv. Dartmouth Northwest. Virginia UCLA Source: BusinessWeek, Cambria Consulting

50 Percent Job Markets for MBAs % w/ Job Offer at Graduation Columbia Dartmouth Source: BusinessWeek, Cambria Consulting Duke Michigan UC Berkeley UCLA

51 Fortune 700 U.S. CEOs, 2002 Without MBA 70% With MBA 30% Source: ceogo.com

52 Percent Brazil Inflation Coming Back? Venezuela 60 Argentina Mexico

53 US$ Billions 200 Argentina Stock Market Capitalization

54 Multiple Melting Pots Typology of US States Melting Pot States White-Black Gainers Mostly White Gainers Slow Growth/Declining

55 The Inner City Opportunity Square Miles Population Number of Households Median House Income Purchasing Power Pacific Palisades Same 22,826 9,128 $122,942 $1.1 Billion Central Los Angeles Same 184,060 49,892 $23,500 $1.1 Billion

56 Household Investments in the US US$ Billions Total Real Estate and Equity Investments Real Estate Equities

57 US Real Estate and Equity Investments Percent 34 Share of Total Household Investment Real Estate Equities

58 Average 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Percent

59 Housing Affordability and New House Sales Percent Thousands 1200 New Home Sales [R] Mortgage Payment as a Percent of Income [L]

60 How 9/11 Has Changed America s Sense of Safety and Security "A Great Deal" or "A Good Amount" 37% Unaffected 39% More Secure 13% Less Secure Now than Immediately After 11%

61 US$ Billions Bankruptcies From 1989 Through Pre-Petition Liabilities Number of Filings 2002 Number Note: Minimum $100 million in liabilities; public companies filing for Chapter 11 protection.

62 Who Are the Stakeholders? Creditors/Lenders Employees Managers Shareholders Suppliers/Customers