Charting Brunei s Economy

Transcription

1 Charting Brunei s Economy Designed to help executives catch up with the economy and incorporate macro impacts into company s planning. Annual subscription includes 2 semiannual issues published in June and December.

2 TABLE OF CONTENT Economic Profile 1 Economic Structure 2 Competitiveness 3 Economic development Part of the country s economic profile, economic structure section gives readers useful views to understand what matters for the Brunei s economy. What is the size of the Brunei s economy in relation to world s major economies? What is the size of Brunei s population? What is the demographic structure of Brunei? Is it favorable for economic growth? How has the structure of Brunei s GDP changed over the years? How much does the Brunei s economy rely on external trade? Which sectors matter most to the economy? Part of the country s economic profile, this section explores Brunei s competitiveness in the global level. It also covers the country s attractiveness to foreign direct investment. Which stage of economic development is the Brunei s economy in? How is the average wage in Brunei compared to others in the region? How competitive is Brunei? How are Brunei s competitive factors compared to those of other ASEAN economies? Is it easy to do business in Brunei? What are most problematic factors in doing business in Brunei? How good is Brunei in attracting Foreign Direct Investment? Part of the country s economic profile, this section explores Brunei s average income and its distribution, poverty as well as other development indicators. What is the level of income for an average person in Brunei? Is there still a lot of poor people in Brunei? How does it compare to others? Is unemployment the issue for Brunei? How is income distributed in Brunei and how does it compare to others? What is the current level of human development in Brunei? How has quality of life in Brunei changed over the years?

3 TABLE OF CONTENT Economic Outlook 4 Economic Growth 5 Macro Risks Appendices Part of the country s economic outlook, this section explores Brunei s recent economic growth, its key drivers and well as the growth outlook for the coming years. What has been the growth rate of Brunei s economy over the past 10 years and how does it compare with others? What were the key growth drivers for the Brunei s economy in the past year? What is the growth outlook for Brunei s economy over the next 3 years and how does it compare with others? This section explores Brunei s macro-economic risks, including inflation, financial sector, budget deficit as well as balance of payment and exchange rate. What is the risk of inflation in Brunei and how does it compare with others? How healthy is the Brunei s banking sector? What has been the return of the stock markets and how does it compare with others? What is the fiscal risk in Brunei? What is the balance of payment risk for Brunei? How good is the country in getting foreign exchange by the mean of commerce? Does Brunei have enough international reserves to service its debt and for import? What is the FX risk? How has the BND performed compared to other currencies? Appendix 1: Key projections from latest IMF s world economic outlook report. GDP growth Inflation Population Unemployment rate Government budget and debt Current account Appendix 2: World Bank s Doing Business Report Detailed rankings and scores for Brunei and comparable economies. Starting a business Dealing with construction permits Getting electricity Registering property Getting credit Protecting Minority Investors Paying taxes Trading across borders Enforcing contracts Resolving Insolvency

4 Brunei is the smallest economy in ASEAN 2015 GDP USD billion, Market Exchange Rate US China Japan Germany UK ASEAN* France India Italy Brazil* Canada Korea* 4,123 3,358 2,849 2,436 2,422 2,091 1,816 1,773 1,552 1,377 10,983 17,947 Indonesia* Thailand* Malaysia* Singapore* Philippines Vietnam Myanmar Cambodia* Measuring the size of an economy Size of any economy is usually measured by calculating its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. To compare GDP internationally, there is a need to convert value in local currencies to one main currency, normally USD. There are two popular exchange rate to be used. The first one is the official exchange rate for that particular period. The second one is the so called Purchasing Power Parity exchange rate, which takes into account the difference in living expenses between countries. The first method is more popular in comparing the size of each economy. Russia Australia Spain Mexico 1,325 1,224 1,200 1,144 Laos* Brunei* Size of Brunei s economy Using the market exchange rate method, Brunei s GDP is around USD 11.8 billion in 2015, the smallest in ASEAN. Note: (*) IMF Estimate Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database April 2016 Charting Economy This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied 6

5 It s not easy to do business in Brunei but conditions in overall have improved Ease of Doing Business Ranking Selected economies, ( ) = 2016 rank, DTF* score Singapore (1) 87.3 South Korea (4) 83.9 Hong Kong (5) 83.7 Australia (13) 80.1 Malaysia (18) 79.1 Japan (34) 74.8 Thailand (49) 71.4 China (84) 63.4 Brunei (84) 62.9 Vietnam (90) 62.1 Philippines (103) 60.1 Indonesia (109) 58.3 India (130) 55.6 Cambodia (127) 55.2 Laos (134) 53.8 Myanmar (167) 45.3 Timor-Leste (173) 44.0 Brunei s DTF* score 2016 vs 2015 TOPICS DB 2016 DB 2015 Change Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Getting Credit Protecting Minority Investors Paying Taxes Trading Across Borders Enforcing Contracts Resolving Insolvency Ease of Doing Business Doing Business sheds light on how easy or difficult it is for a local entrepreneur to open and run a small to medium-size business when complying with relevant regulations. It measures and tracks changes in regulations affecting 11 areas in the life cycle of a business: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, resolving insolvency and labor market regulation. Doing Business in Brunei Brunei s economy is ranked 84 th in the world on the World Bank s Ease of Doing Business 2016 ranking. It s easier to start a business and getting credit but harder to get construction permits and electricity. It s overall DTF score has improved from to Note: (*) An economy s distance to frontier score is indicated on a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 represents the worst performance and 100 the frontier Source: Doing Business 2016: Measuring Regulatory Quality and Efficiency Charting Economy This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied 16

6 Starting a business in Brunei is easier than most ASEAN countries Starting a business rank Economy Rank DTF* Procedures (number) Time (days) Cost (% of income per capita) Paid in min. capital (% of income per capita) New Zealand Hong Kong SAR, China Singapore Australia Malaysia Korea, Rep Brunei Darussalam Japan Thailand Timor Leste Vietnam China Lao PDR India Myanmar Philippines Indonesia Cambodia Central African Republic Starting a Business This topic measures the paid-in minimum capital requirement, number of procedures, time and cost for a small- to medium-sized limited liability company to start up and formally operate. To make the data comparable across 189 economies, Doing Business uses a standardized business that is 100% domestically owned, has start-up capital equivalent to 10 times income per capita, engages in general industrial or commercial activities and employs between 10 and 50 people one month after the commencement of operations, all of whom are domestic nationals. The most recent round of data collection for the project was completed in June Starting a Business in Brunei Starting a business in Brunei is easier than most ASEAN countries. It takes just two weeks to set up a business. Note: (*) An economy s distance to frontier score is indicated on a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 represents the worst performance and 100 the frontier Source: Doing Business 2016: Measuring Regulatory Quality and Efficiency Charting Economy This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied 43

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