Emerging Trends in Real Estate Sustaining Momentum but Taking Nothing for Granted
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1 Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015 Sustaining Momentum but Taking Nothing for Granted
2 PwC-ULI Outlook on trends 36th edition 368 interviews 1,055 survey responses 1,400+ participants, a record Who? District Councils-thank you!
3 New Markets for 2015 More investor interest in local markets Identify markets that are part of larger consolidated areas High growth areas Manufacturing resurgence Energy exposure Midwest stability Northwest growth
4 Average Length of Economic Cycles Trough to trough average economic cycle length (33 cycles) Average of the 3 cycles since 1990: 105 months Currently at 63 months and counting Is the current cycle nearing an end? (16 cycles) (6 cycles) (11 cycles) (3 cycles) Months Source: NBER
5 Firm Profitability Prospects for 2015
6 Sales of Large Commercial Properties in the United States Source: Real Capital Analytics
7 Moody s/rca Commercial Property Price Index, by Major/Nonmajor Markets Sources: Moody s and Real Capital Analytics Notes: Major markets are defined here as Boston, Chicago, LA, SF, NYC, DC. Data through 6/14
8 2015 Emerging Trends 18 Hour City Comes of Age
9 U.S. Markets to Watch Category Rank Total Rank Market (Category Rank) Investment Development Homebuilding 1 Houston Austin San Francisco Denver Dallas/Ft. Worth Los Angeles Charlotte Seattle Boston Raleigh/Durham Atlanta Orange County Nashville New York-Manhattan San Jose Portland, OR Oakland-East Bay Chicago Miami San Diego
10 18 Hour City Comes of Age Two-Year Job Growth, by Market Costs of Doing Business Los Angeles 103% Seattle 101% Austin 101% Houston 99% Chicago 99% Dallas/Fortworth 94% Denver 94% Atlanta 90% Charlotte 86% Raleigh/Durham 85% Boston 120% San Francisco 118% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody s Analytics, as of June 30, 2014
11 2015 Emerging Trends The changing age game
12 The Changing Age Game 2015 U.S. Population by Age
13 The Changing Age Game 2015 U.S. Population by Age
14 The Changing Age Game Population that will be 80.0 making lifestyle decisions in the next five years millions - Millennial (30 plus) Baby Boomers (55-64) Source: US Census Bureau
15 2015 Emerging Trends Labor Markets Trending Toward Tipping Point
16 Labor Markets Trending Toward Tipping Point U.S. Labor Force Growth Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody s Analytics (Economic & Consumer Credit Analytics) forecast
17 Labor Markets Trending Toward Tipping Point 200 (000 s) Growth in population turning 65 outpaces the growth in population turning 16 Leaving Entering Labor Force Impact Source: US Census Bureau
18 2015 Emerging Trends Technology: Love it or Lose out
19 Technology Disruption is Everywhere 38 Years 75 Years 13 Years 4 Years 3.5 Years 3 Years Reaching 50 Million Users 2.5 Years 3 Days Source: Kofi Annan
20 Technology Disruption is Everywhere Industrial Office Retail Hotel Multifamily Same day delivery Shared workspace Omnichannel Shared lodging Enhanced amenities 3-D printing Flexible layout 3-D printing Personal systems Mobile ordering maint. RFID Advanced building systems Onsite electronic marketing Electronic check-in Automated services
21 2015 Emerging Trends Event Risk is Here to Stay
22 Global Office Investment, by US Markets (billions) Source: Real Capital Analytics, as of 7/31/14
23 Global Industrial Investment, by US Markets (billions) Source: Real Capital Analytics, as of 7/31/14
24 Global Retail Investment, by US Markets (billions) Source: Real Capital Analytics, as of 7/31/14
25 2015 Emerging Trends Darwinian market keeps squeeze on companies 900 pound gorilla swings into view Time for the U.S. to get serious about infrastructure Housing steps off the roller coaster Keeping an eye on the bubble emerging concerns Efficiencies $300 billion $2.0 trillion Equilibrium?
26 900 pound gorilla swings into view DC Assets $6.0T Pension Real Estate Allocation 5.0% Potential Real Estate Investment - $300Billion? Source: ICI, PREA
27 Prospects for Commercial/Multifamily Subsectors in 2015
28 2015 Local Outlook: Charlotte % 3.00 Rating
29 2015 Emerging Trends Charlotte, by Sector Investment 4.00 #7 #8 #12 #23 #9 # Housing Industrial Office Multifamily Hotel Retail
30 2015 Emerging Trends Investment Ratings
31 2015 Expected Best Bets Seek Alpha Exploit Technology Refinance Develop Industrial Rediscover the Suburbs
32 Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015 Sustaining Momentum but Taking Nothing for Granted
Emerging Trends in Real Estate Sustaining Momentum but Taking Nothing for Granted
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