2018 Kansas City Economic Forecast. Mid-Year Update Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce June 15, 2018

Transcription

1 2018 Kansas City Economic Forecast Mid-Year Update Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce June 15, 2018

2 Status of the U.S. Economy

3 By many measures the economy is approaching maximum capacity.

4 160,000 US Non-Farm Payroll Employment 150,000 Recovery is now the second longest on record. 140, , , , ,000 90,000 80,

5 Average employment gains exceed labor force growth, and the tax cut may have ratcheted that up even more. US Non-Farm Payroll Employment Monthly Change 12-month moving average of the change 197

6 Both the official unemployment rate and the U-6 rate continue to decline, and shows no sign of flattening out. If the official rate drops by another tenth, we will have to go back 50 years to find a lower rate U.S Unemployment Rates, monthly Plus marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons Official unemployment rate

7 Openings exceed hires and also exceed the number of unemployed. Quits are rising in line with hires as workers more easily find new jobs U.S. Job Churn Openings, Hires, Layoffs and Quits Hires Openings Layoffs Quits

8 To head off any 4.0 building 3.5 inflationary 3.0 pressures, the 2.5 FOMC is raising 2.0 interest rates 1.5 and normalizing its balance sheet. 1.0 Fed Funds rate is 0.5 now 1.75%-2.0% 0.0 Federal Funds Rate, monthly June

9 There appears to be a slight upward trend in GDP growth, resulting in three consecutive quarters growing around 3 percent before falling to 2.2 percent in first quarter U.S. GDP, quarterly, percent change at annual rates per. Mov. Avg. (U.S. GDP, quarterly percent change at annual rates)

10 However, GDP has experienced apparent upward trends in the past. Using a 3-year average to take out fluctuations, growth has been remarkably stable at around 2 percent postrecession. U.S. GDP, quarterly percent change at annual rates per. Mov. Avg. (U.S. GDP, quarterly percent change at annual rates)

11 Yet, by other measures the economy still has room to run.

12 Core inflation remains below the FOMC target of 2.0 percent Core PCE Inflation Rate, quarterly

13 Core inflation remains below the FOMC target of 2.0 percent Core PCE Inflation vs. Fed Funds Rate, quarterly On July 22, 1981, the Funds rate hit percent! Core PCE Fed Funds

14 Real wages have actually started to decline Median Full-Time Weekly Earnings Percent change from one year ago Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Real Nominal

15 More people are being pulled into the workforce, though they haven t reached pre-recession Employment to Population Ratio, by Age and Gender levels Male Male Male Female Female Female 45-54

16 More people are being pulled into the workforce, though they haven t reached pre-recession Employment to Population Ratio, by Age and Gender levels Male Male Male Female Female Female 45-54

17 We may be approaching the end of the Goldilocks economy Unemployment is already below the rate at which inflation should begin to accelerate. Wages are a puzzle though. The tax cut plus increased federal expenditures may cause a growth sprint that is not sustainable. Based on rate of growth of the labor force (0.8 %) plus rate of growth of productivity (1.3%) While fiscal policy is expansionary, monetary policy is now shifting to a more neutral target, though still currently accomodative.

18 U.S. Economic Forecast

19 The median FOMC projection for GDP calls for 2018 to grow 2.8 percent, with a range as high as 3 percent, before grow decelerates to 2 percent in FOMC June 2018 GDP Projections Longer run Actual Median FOMC Range

20 The University of Michigan forecast used to drive the regional forecasting model is slightly more pessimistic than the FOMC median in U.S. Real GDP Projections, FOMC vs. RSQE Longer run Actual RSQE FOMC Range

21 FOMC Participants' Assessment of Appropriate Monetary Policy Expected Federal Funds Rate at end of year Median FOMC projection is to 4.5 raise Fed Funds 4 two more times , to 2.4%., times in and 1 more in , each by %, ending 2020 at 3.4% Longer run Longer run

22 Status of the KC Economy

23 Projects totaling over 86 million square feet are either under construction or planned. 40% is industrial and 25% is apartments. $2B non-res contracts in 2017.

24 More on the horizon Buck O Neil bridge KCI modernization Street car expansion

25 Like the U.S., KC s employment growth has been gradually declining through the end of We ll have to see if it bumps up in 2018 here like it has nationally. 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Year-Over-Year Employment Change Kansas City MSA Year/year employment change 12-month moving average

26 KC s employment growth appears to be matching that of the U.S., except for two sectors Information and Prof/Sci/Tech services Employment Change by Industry Kansas City MSA Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Health Care and Social Assistance Information Finance and Insurance Transportation and Warehousing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

27 Doing as well as the U.S. used to be good enough. No more. Compared to our peer metros, the region is slipping on several key indicators. Quality Jobs - Pct. Ch Kansas City Nashville Las Vegas 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%

28 KC currently ranks 17th in GDP, 12th in quality jobs, and 14th in real median household income. But its rank on how fast these are growing is 19 th, 20 th, and 24 th, respectively. Quality Jobs - Pct. Ch Kansas City Nashville Las Vegas 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%

29 KC s growth is sufficient to lower its unemployment rate and remain about a quarter of a point lower than the U.S rate U.S. and KC Unemployment Rate Comparison Not Seasonally Adjusted US KC 3.3

30 KC Economic Forecast

31 KC GDP growth is projected to slightly lag US GDP growth until catching up in Like the U.S, GDP growth declines to from near 3 percent to 2.2 percent in % 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% U.S. and KC GDP Growth Seasonally adusted at annual rates, quarterly 0.2% 2.4% 1.3% 2.7% 3.4% 2.8% 2.4% 1.9% 2.9% KC US 2.2%

32 KC s employment growth continues to match the U.S. For both, employment growth bumps up a bit in 2018 before resuming its slow decline due to labor force constraints. 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% U.S. and KC Total Employment Growth Rate Quarterly change at annual rates 1.3% 1.9% 1.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% KC US

33 As a result, KC is will add nearly 22,000 jobs in 2018 before falling back to about 19,000 in These figures include increases in the self-employed as well as payroll employment. 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - KC Total Employment Growth Fourth quarter to fourth quarter 20,790 21,400 21,724 18,

34 KC Employment by Industry 1st quarter, 2018 Health Care, Government, Retail, Prof/ Sci/Tech and Accommodation and Food Service are the region s largest industries in terms of jobs. Health Care and Social Assistance Government Retail Trade Professional, Scientific, and Accommodation and Food Services Administrative and Waste Finance and Insurance Other Services, except Public Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Transportation and Warehousing Management of Companies and Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Educational services; private Information Farm Mining Utilities Forestry, Fishing, and Related 166, , , , ,951 97,040 93,950 75,739 73,406 71,715 61,422 59,677 55,155 32,873 31,916 27,537 21,257 12,194 5,732 2,885 2,792-50, , , ,000

35 KC Employment Growth by Industry Fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter change Over the projection period, Prof/Sci/Tech, Health Care and Construction are expected to grow the fastest, followed by Finance, Administrative support, and Local government (which includes schools) Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Construction Finance and Insurance Administrative and Waste Management Services Government Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Management of Companies and Enterprises Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Mining Manufacturing Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Educational services; private Forestry, Fishing, and Related Activities Information Transportation and Warehousing Utilities Farm Other Services, except Public Administration Accommodation and Food Services (37) (161) (267) -461 (539) (756) 1, ,683 2,121 3,693 3,525 4,732 (2,000) (1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,

36 Risks to the forecast Upside risks include: Construction of New KCI terminal Buck O Neil bridge replacement Street car expansion Cerner Intermodal Downside risks include: Sprint merger with T-Mobile Decline of in-store retail Trade

37 Conclusion Now the second longest expansion, it will likely become the longest in about a year. The rare Goldilocks moment may be coming to an end, however. KC is matching the U.S. by some data, falling slightly behind on others It is not keeping up with many of its peer metros More and more, the availability of high-quality workers is constraining growth, perhaps here more than elsewhere. Efforts to develop, attract and retain workers will be essential if KC s growth rate is to increase above average.