The Chamber s Year-end 2010 Regional Business Survey. Approaching Escape Velocity

Transcription

1 The Chamber s Year-end 2010 Regional Business Survey Approaching Escape Velocity

2 Executive Summary A record 498 business executives reported generally improving business conditions in The Chamber s 2010 Yearend Regional Business Survey. The number of respondents increased more than 21 percent from the previous survey. Here are a few observations drawn from the latest survey, which was conducted Nov. 23 Dec. 17: 1 A total of 54.7 percent of respondents reported that their firm s business activity was strong or very strong, compared to 9.5 percent reporting that business was weak or very weak. The percentage of respondents reporting strong or very strong business activity was up 6.4 percentage points from six months earlier. Similar trends were reported in response to questions addressing clients and vendors, and the regional economy as a whole. 2 Nearly three times as many respondents (50.9 percent) reported that revenues were higher than six months ago compared to those reporting lower revenues (17.5 percent). More than twice as many (46.5 percent) reported higher net profits than lower profits (20.7 percent). However, the percentages of respondents reporting higher total revenue and net profit numbers were essentially unchanged from six months earlier. 3 More companies reported growth in the number of employees (28.5 percent) over the past six months than those reporting fewer (23.3 percent). But the percentage expecting to hire more over the next six months (38.1 percent) was down slightly from six months ago (42.0 percent). Even so, more than four times as many respondents expect to add employees over the next six months than shed employees. 4 Unpredictability of business conditions (55.6 percent) and slowing or lost sales (28.9 percent) remained the most immediate problems cited by respondents. Although access to credit lagged far behind in the list of business concerns, more than seven times as many respondents reported tighter credit terms as those reporting loosened credit terms. 5 The two most serious long term problems facing regional businesses are long term economic stagnation (31.3 percent) and weak political leadership (17.5 percent). The level of concern about weak political leadership was up 4.2 percentage points from six months earlier. 6 As for the nature of the recession recovery cycle, the percentage of respondents expecting a W shaped also known as a double dip recession decreased from 32.6 percent to 27.2 percent over the past six months. The double dip scenario slipped from the most likely expected by respondents to third most likely, following the U shaped recovery (29.0 percent) and The Chamber s forecast for a Check mark shaped (28.3 percent) recovery. 7 A total of 52.8 percent of respondents said the outcome of the recent congressional elections would be good for business, compared with 13.5 percent saying it will be bad for business. The remaining 33.7 percent of respondents said it would make no difference. 8 Respondents listed debt reduction, job creation, education/workforce development, and entrepreneurship/business formation as the top economic priorities for elected officials. Six months ago, the priorities were job creation, debt reduction, entrepreneurship/business formation and education/workforce development. The Chamber s Regional Business Survey is a twice yearly effort to gauge economic activity and attitudes in the Greater Kansas City region as part of a broader effort to provide more unique, regional economic data for our membership. The data is drawn from a non scientific, self selected sample of regional business executives. For more information, contact Chris Lester, Chamber Senior Vice President of Business Growth, at (816) or lester@kcchamber.com.

3 Is your firm's business activity... Very strong Strong So so Weak Very weak 1.60% 3.70% 12.60% 13.10% 1.70% 1.40% 7.80% 8.10% 45.50% 39.00% 42.20% 35.70% 32.00% 33.80% 39.70% 45.80% 8.30% 10.50% 8.60% 8.90% Is your firm's business activity getting... Much stronger Stronger Not changing Weaker Much weaker 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 9.8% 6.8% 3.4% 5.5% 44.9% 34.1% 32.4% 28.6% 40.2% 52.5% 58.7% 62.1% 5.1% 6.3% 4.7% 3.4% Page 1

4 Is the business activity of your clients and vendors... Very strong Strong So so Weak Very weak 1.20% 2.10% 1.70% 0.20% 8.70% 8.20% 21.70% 16.80% 58.50% 62.00% 66.60% 62.20% 17.80% 17.80% 22.30% 28.80% 0.80% 1.30% 0.70% 0.60% Is the business activity of your clients and vendors getting... Much stronger Stronger Not changing Weaker Much weaker 0.00% 0.30% 0.50% 0.20% 11.90% 6.90% 6.20% 18.70% 48.00% 43.20% 41.50% 58.00% 22.60% 38.30% 48.90% 50.70% 0.80% 1.60% 0.50% 1.40% Page 2

5 Currently, Is business activity in Greater Kansas City... Very strong Strong So so Weak Very weak 1.60% 1.60% 1.20% 0.60% 14.30% 12.40% 10.60% 9.00% 72.00% 67.70% 69.80% 66.50% 16.70% 22.60% 17.80% 11.50% 0.40% 1.60% 0.50% 1.20% Is business activity in Greater Kansas City getting... Much stronger Stronger Not changing Weaker Much weaker 0.40% 1.10% 0.50% 0.20% 5.00% 5.60% 9.10% 15.60% 48.80% 44.50% 41.60% 57.60% 26.40% 39.70% 49.50% 51.10% 0.00% 1.30% 0.50% 1.40% Page 3

6 Compared to six months ago, are your total revenues... Summer 2010 Winter % 50.90% 30.70% 31.50% 17.80% 17.50% Higher Same Lower Compared to six months ago, are your net profits... Summer 2010 Winter % 46.50% 30.30% 32.80% 23.40% 20.70% Higher Same Lower Page 4

7 Compared to six months ago, are your overall selling prices generally... A lot lower A little lower No change A little higher A lot higher 1.60% 1.10% 1.20% 0.40% 12.00% 11.60% 18.60% 20.00% 53.80% 50.00% 55.00% 54.80% 27.90% 32.90% 22.00% 23.10% 4.80% 4.50% 3.20% 1.70% Page 5

8 Compared to six months ago, is the total number of employees working for you... More Same Fewer 38.50% 29.40% 21.30% 23.30% 44.40% 48.10% 49.30% 48.20% 17.10% 22.50% 29.50% 28.50% Six months from now, how many employees does your company expect to have? More Same Fewer 6.1% 8.1% 8.6% 51.1% 49.9% 53.4% 42.9% 42.0% 38.1% Winter 2009 Summer 2010 Winter 2010 Page 6

9 If you have filled or attempted to fill job openings in recent months, have you been satisfied by the quantity and quality of applicants? 24.6% Yes No 75.4% Including major purchases of plant, equipment vehicles or land, have you... Reduced, postponed, or canceled substantially Remained on schedule Increased a lot Reduced, postponed, or canceled a little Increased a little Had no investment plans 15.50% 20.20% 21.70% 21.40% 7.10% 31.00% 13.90% 24.60% 3.90% 5.60% 9.90% 10.10% 35.50% 33.60% 34.10% 29.60% 20.70% 22.70% 12.30% 11.80% 8.40% 6.60% Page 7

10 Over the past six months, has your business been able to obtain... All the credit wanted Most of the credit wanted Some of the credit wanted None of the credit wanted Didn't seek any credit 44.0% 48.3% 49.0% 51.5% 4.1% 13.4% 12.6% 25.6% 5.5% 4.7% 3.4% 12.9% 10.4% 8.0% 13.5% 13.7% 14.1% 19.8% 22.1% 23.1% If you have obtained credit over the past six months, have the terms of that credit been... Tightened Loosened Unchanged 58.00% 60.00% 55.40% 62.20% 1.00% 2.40% 6.20% 4.50% 41.00% 37.60% 38.40% 33.30% Page 8

11 For your business, is the most immediate problem... An inability to obtain credit Slowing or lost sales Unpredictability of business conditions The cost or terms of credit Falling real estate values Recruiting qualified workers 9.0% 6.7% 43.0% 45.5% 46.5% 55.6% 5.2% 5.6% 4.0% 4.0% 39.5% 41.0% 32.6% 28.9% 4.0% 8.1% 1.9% 2.2% 6.1% 5.7% 2.5% 2.3% What do you think is the most serious long term problem facing regional business? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4.8% 2.7% 2.0% 1.2% 19.4% 8.3% 22.2% 5.6% 19.0% 21.0% Summer % 17.5% 25.8% 2.2% 2.3% 12.8% 14.2% 12.8% 9.6% 8.7% 11.2% 10.6% 9.9% 19.9% 6.1% 13.3% 8.2% Winter % 4.9% 5.2% 11.3% 7.8% 3.2% 1.9% Summer % Winter 2010 No serious long term problems Weak political leadership Shortage of qualified workers Soaring public debt More socialized economy Loss of small business opportunity Long term economic stagnation Large cuts in government services Large tax increases Inflation Page 9

12 As it pertains to economic growth and development, is the Kansas City region headed in the... Summer 2010 Winter % 44.8% 49.4% 43.3% 9.6% 11.9% Right direction Wrong direction Not sure Page 10

13 Assuming Greater Kansas City entered the national recession that began in December 2007, when did/will the area economy start growing again? 0.2% 7.2% 34.9% 30.5% Sometime in 2008 Sometime in 2009 Sometime in 2010 Sometime in 2011 After % What shape do you think the recession and recovery cycle is taking? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 25.50% 26.60% 28.30% 7.80% 7.00% 12.90% 28.70% 32.60% 27.20% Check mark shaped (between V shaped and L shaped) L shaped W shaped U shaped 30% 20% 32.70% 31.10% 29.00% V shaped 10% 0% 5.40% 2.60% 2.50% Winter 2009 Summer 2010 Winter 2010 Page 11

14 Do you believe recent congressional results will be % 52.7% Good for business Bad for business Make no difference 13.5% How much confidence do you have in the Federal Reserve to do the right thing for the economy? A great deal A fair amount Not much/almost none No opinion 8.9% 9.4% 24.5% 57.2% Page 12

15 What do you think should be the top three economic development priorities for elected officials at all levels of government? (Please pick three.) Debt Reduction Energy Policy Healthcare reform Regulatory reform Tax relief Education/Workforce Development Entrepreneurship/Business formation Job Creation Sustainability 11.3% 20.3% 7.8% 5.1% 13.2% 20.0% 4.8% 6.9% 10.6% Page 13

16 What is the biggest obstacle to the growth and profitability of your business? Companies with 1 9 employees: Because of the uncertainty of the economy and the need to tighten belts, hardly anyone is actually planning ahead. It seems like there is an overall inability or fear by managers to mention or plan something that may require a budget until the last minute. Then it has to be done yesterday. This is resulting in reactionary, mediocre, and less effective business being done. This trend does not have a positive outcome in the long term. In short, people need to get back to planning and implementing at least one quarter in advance again and not get caught up in the current attention deficit marketing and operations practices. KC business practices and technology trends 10+ years behind many other regions More people working would mean more discretionary income for people to buy our services Competition from the nonprofit & government sectors interfering with private sector growth Lack of confidence in the economy by individuals and small businesses along with high unemployment Healthcare costs still too high needed stronger reform to bring down costs but it was a good first step Government tightening of lending regulations for borrowers I can get credit. I cannot get what I consider to be favorable credit terms and long term rates. Economic stagnation decision makers are shell shocked and are not able to make clear decisions Companies with employees: Competitive pressures outside of the KC region Getting the word out about what we do cost of advertising Unknown position on extension of tax cuts for high income. This will directly affect our company s bottom line and our ability to hire new employees. Companies with employees: The ability to hire qualified, hard working individuals who have the skill sets we need to continue to grow our business Economic uncertainty makes it tough to make investments Companies with 250 or more employees: Lack of political leadership Government s intervention, punitive legislation, and over regulation Lack of investment in infrastructure Seeking an understanding of the business rules moving forward; would like to see a better upside for taking risk Page 14

17 If you could give elected officials one piece of advice about how to make our regional economy more competitive, what would it be? Companies with 1 9 employees: Start fostering small and mid sized businesses. This is where new solutions, productivity, and growth come from. Do your job and stop making backwards policies that destroy the innovation and creativity that is coming from start ups. Support them as much or more than the larger companies that may be lobbying or incenting you to do the opposite. Tax incentives for new businesses and fix the education problem bad schools are bad for business Get creative in retaining KCMO businesses Think regionally. If Greater KC area was governed as a SMA instead of individual fiefdoms, we would be better problem solvers and have a more recognized national presence. We need a better workforce and need to invest in it As a nation we need to take leadership in emerging industries. The fact that China, India, and Germany are leading the way to sustainability industries is great for them but really bad for us. We also need to re establish this country s manufacturing base. Not everyone is cut out to be a lawyer or work on Wall Street. Think regional! We either fail together or succeed together. Getting all our economic developers on both sides of the state line to truly work together to develop a strategic growth plan that works for both states would be GREAT! On a local level, stop the in fighting and border wars we re bidding against ourselves and have to look out for the good of the whole metro area. Quit being so territorial and grow up. Companies with employees: We need to bring manufacturing jobs back to the states Companies with employees: Collaboration within the region. Stop the infighting and promote the region to outside entities. Encourage development of new manufacturing jobs in sustainable energy industries Companies with employees: Realize that business, especially manufacturing, drives the economy, drives our ability to reduce our national debt, and affects our security and standard of living Focus on investment in capital infrastructure projects Companies with 250 or more employees: Trim the government and reduce taxation Invest in education. Focus on foreign markets. Use private sector innovation to help solve government challenges in such areas as infrastructure investment & management Stop raiding across state line Page 15

18 What best describes your position in the business? 37% 58% Owner/manager Owner, but not manager Manager, but not owner 5% Page 16

19 What is your primary business activity? Agriculture, forestry, fishing Construction Manufacturing/mining Wholesale trade 5% 0% 2% 2% 2% 8% 6% 2% Retail trade Transportation/ warehousing 7% Information 5% Finance & insurance 8% 4% Real estate and rental/leasing 0% 4% Professional/scientific/ technical services 27% 16% Administrative support/ waste management services Educational services 2% Healthcare and social assistance Arts, entertainment, or recreation Accomodations or food service Other services, including repair and personal services Other (please specify) Page 17

20 How old is your business? 10% 48% 11% 17% Less than 6 years 6 10 years years years 31+ years 14% How many employees work at the firm? 29% 24% 9% % 24% Page 18

21 What is your age? 1% 10% 29% 17% 27% 16% Less than 25 years years years years years 65+ years What is your sex? 37% Male Female 63% Page 19

22 2% 1% 0% 2% What is your race? 4% Caucasian African American Hispanic Asian American Indian Other (please specify) 91% Page 20

23 What is your highest level of formal education? 0% 1% 10% 0% 46% 43% Less than high school High school diploma/ged Some college or associate's degree Some college or associate's degree College diploma Advanced or professional degree Page 21