Consensus Summary. Forecast Released February 1, Forecast Forecast

Transcription

1 Consensus Summary Forecast Released February 1, 2010 Current $ Personal Income Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Arizona California Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Oregon Texas Utah Washington Wyoming Current $ Personal Income Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Arizona California Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Oregon Texas Utah Washington Wyoming

2 Arizona Arizona Department of Commerce Arizona Public Service ASU - Economic Outlook Center Davidson Fixed Income Management ECON-LINC EconLit LLC Elliott D. Pollack & Co Joint Legislative Budget Committee The Maguire Company NAU - BBER Salt River Project Southwest Growth Partners Stellar Capital Management UA - Eller College VisionEcon/Governing Star Group Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Arizona Department of Commerce Arizona Public Service ASU - Economic Outlook Center Davidson Fixed Income Management ECON-LINC EconLit LLC Elliott D. Pollack & Co Joint Legislative Budget Committee The Maguire Company NAU - BBER Salt River Project Southwest Growth Partners Stellar Capital Management UA - Eller College VisionEcon/Governing Star Group Consensus - This Month Arizona Update and Outlook New lending remains anemic as de-leveraging continues to run its course, keeping a lid on economic activity. However, we may see some economic activity brought forward into 2010 to avoid scheduled tax increases in 2011, which would add to economic activity in 2010, at the expense of economic activity early in Stellar Capital Management Comparing December 2009 total nonfarm employment levels to the same time last year(december 2008), employment has declined by 123,800 jobs. While still showing over-the-year losses, the rate of loss has slowed down for the last four months from -7.7 percent in August to -4.8 percent in December. Arizona Department of Commerce,

3

4 California Anonymous Chapman University Economic Development Corp. of L.A Legislative Analyst's Office UCLA - Business Forecasting Project University of the Pacific Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Anonymous Chapman University Economic Development Corp. of L.A. Legislative Analyst's Office UCLA - Business Forecasting Project University of the Pacific Consensus - This Month California Update and Outlook The California unemployment rate was 12.4 percent in December, which was unchangedfrom the rate in November (revised). California's nonfarm payrolls lost 38,800 jobs indecember, following a revised 17,600-job loss in November. Educational and healthservices (up 7,500) gained the most jobs in December, while trade, transportation andutilities (down 15,300) lost the most jobs among the major industry sectors. California Employment Development Department

5 Colorado The Adams Group, Inc Center for Business & Economic Forecasting Colorado Legislative Council Eastern New Mexico University Office of State Planning & Budgeting University of Colorado - Leeds Xcel Energy Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month The Adams Group, Inc. Center for Business & Economic Forecasting Colorado Legislative Council Eastern New Mexico University Office of State Planning & Budgeting University of Colorado - Leeds Xcel Energy Consensus - This Month Colorado Update and Outlook Nonfarm payroll employment decreased over the year by 3.8 percent, or 87,700, from the December 2008 level of 2,336,700. Employment in two of Colorado's eleven major industry sectors increased over the year. Education and health services added 6,300 jobs and government increased 2,700. Goods-producing industries accounted for slightly less than half of the job losses during the past year. Employment in construction was down 22,600, manufacturing declined 12,100 and mining and logging was down 6,300. Trade, transportation and utilities and professional and business services declined 15,800 and 15,000, respectively. Other losses included leisure and hospitality (9,300), financial activities (7,400), information (4,400), and other services (3,800). The annual average unemployment rate for 2009 in Colorado was 7.3 percent, an increase from 4.9 percent in Nonfarm job losses for 2009 are estimated to be 89,300 or 3.8 percent. This marks the highest percent job loss since Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

6 Idaho Idaho Division of Financial Management Idaho Economics Wells Fargo & Company - UT Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Idaho Division of Financial Management Idaho Economics Wells Fargo & Company - UT Consensus - This Month Idaho Update and Outlook Idaho lost 42,000 nonfarm jobs between the second quarters of 2008 and 2009 and a two-year total of 54,200 to date. Idaho industries hit hardest by the recession were retail trade, construction, financial services and computer and electronic products manufacturing. Nearly 50 percent of those jobs were in construction, which declined 12,339 or 28.3 percent, and manufacturing, which fell 9,491 or 21.7 percent. Retail trade accounted for 15 percent of the job loss at 6,567, professional and business services fell 14.8 percent or 6,455 and leisure and hospitality dropped 12.3 percent. All these sectors experienced average annual wage declines ranging from 1.24 percent to 2.39 percent. Idaho's labor pool currently stands at about 755,000. Although approximately 686,500 of these people are working, that's the lowest number since February Idaho Department of Labor

7 Montana Current $ Personal Income Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits University of Montana Wells Fargo & Company - UT Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Current $ Personal Income Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits University of Montana Wells Fargo & Company - UT Consensus - This Month Montana Update and Outlook Montana's seasonally-adjusted, non-agricultural payroll employment fell by 6,400 jobs (-1.5 percent) from November to December The largest loss occurred in Construction, with 2,700 (-10.5 percent) fewer jobs over the month. The Trade, Transportation and Utilities sector also showed significant losses with 1,600 (-1.8 percent) fewer jobs. Montana's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate increased from 6.4 percent to 6.7 percent from November to December Montana Department of Labor and Industry

8 Nevada Current $ Personal Income Gross Gaming Revenues Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Dept. of Employment, Training & Rehab Restrepo Consulting Group, LLC Southwest Gas Corporation University of Nevada at Las Vegas - CBER Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Current $ Personal Income Gross Gaming Revenues Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Dept. of Employment, Training & Rehab. Restrepo Consulting Group, LLC Southwest Gas Corporation University of Nevada at Las Vegas - CBER Consensus - This Month Nevada Update and Outlook In December, the unemployment rate jumped seven-tenths of a percent to 13 percent, nearly matching the highest rate on record, September's 13.3 percent. An estimated 176,000 Nevadans were unemployed. Changes in the unemployment rates in Nevada's regional labor markets followed suit in December. The unemployment rate in Las Vegas jumped a full percentage point to 13.1 percent. In the Reno area, the unemployment rate increased 1.3 percentage points to 12.7 percent. In Carson City, the unemployment rate climbed to 12.7 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the month. All metropolitan areas of the state lost jobs in December. In Las Vegas, employers reported 9,900 fewer jobs in December than November. Since December 2008, the area has lost 66,700 jobs or 7.4 percent. Nevada Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation

9 New Mexico Current $ Personal Income Mfg. Employ. Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Eastern New Mexico University New Mexico State University - CEMAF PNM Resources University of New Mexico - BBER Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Current $ Personal Income Mfg. Employ. Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Eastern New Mexico University New Mexico State University - CEMAF PNM Resources University of New Mexico - BBER Consensus - This Month New Mexico Update and Outlook December was not a good month for employment in New Mexico, with the seasonally adjusted series showing a decline of 4,800 jobs. This may be an indication of reduced seasonal hiring, compared to what is normal. However, we still believe that we are several months into a slow recovery. There are typically a number of setbacks in any recovery, as we take two steps forward and one step back. December appears to one of those steps back. New Mexico still appears to have reached a statistical low point in August from which a slow recovery has begun. Since then, the employer survey reported three consecutive months of seasonally adjusted increases before the decline in December. Three good months and one not-so-good month is an improvement from the consistently dismal results posted previously. However, earlier losses are such that we are still down more than 25,000 jobs on the year, and it will be a number of years before employment returns to pre-recession levels. The recent decline in the number of jobs is the worst the state has seen in modern times. Meanwhile, the state's unemployment rate, currently at a 22-year high, has risen sharply during 2009 and may still be set for further increases. The rate is up significantly from a record low of 3.5 percent reached just two years ago. New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions

10 Oregon Current $ Personal Income Mfg. Employ. Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Conerly Consulting Forefront Economics John Mitchell Oregon Executive Department Portland General Electric Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Current $ Personal Income Mfg. Employ. Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Conerly Consulting Forefront Economics John Mitchell Oregon Executive Department Portland General Electric Consensus - This Month Oregon Update and Outlook Oregon's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 11.0 percent in December from the revised November figure of 10.7 percent. The rate has been close to 11 percent for the last four months of Oregon's unemployment rate was 8.3 percent in December In December, Oregon's seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment added 2,900 jobs, following a loss of 2,000 (as revised) in November. December was the first month of substantial job gains since July 2008 when 5,400 were added. Oregon Employment Department Texas Eastern New Mexico University Econoclast Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Perryman Group Southern Methodist University TX State Comptroller of Public Accounts University of Houston - CPP University of Texas at El Paso Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month

11 Eastern New Mexico University Econoclast Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Perryman Group Southern Methodist University TX State Comptroller of Public Accounts University of Houston - CPP University of Texas at El Paso Consensus - This Month Texas Update and Outlook Texas has seen job growth 2 of the past 3 months, and other indicators are beginning to turn upward. The state government continues to face revenue challenges, but economic development programs continue to pay dividends. It appears that the state will emerge from the downturn with modest momentum and on a somewhat faster timetable than the nation as a whole. Perryman Group Recent data from the US Census Bureau already show an uptick in migration to Texas from other states--most notably California, New York, Michigan and Florida. As the economic recovery gains traction, a renewed surge of people and businesses into Texas seems likely due to the intractable economic and fiscal problems facing most other large states. Southern Methodist University After two consecutive months of employment growth, Total Nonagricultural Employment recorded a loss of 23,900 jobs in December. These losses were widespread throughout eight of the 11 major industries with almost a third of the monthly decline occurring in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities. The largest over-the-month gain occurred in Education and Health Services, which added 4,800 jobs and was growing annually at a rate of 4.6 percent. The annual growth rate for Total Nonagricultural Employment fell into negative territory beginning in February of this year and has gradually fallen to -2.6 percent in December. This represents a loss of 275,900 jobs since December Texas Workforce Commission at

12 Pacificorp Utah Utah Department of Workforce Services Utah State Tax Commission Wells Fargo & Company - UT Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Pacificorp Utah Department of Workforce Services Utah State Tax Commission Wells Fargo & Company - UT Consensus - This Month Utah Update and Outlook Initial unemployment insurance filings still remain high, signaling further weakness and job losses in Utah's economy. Yet Utah job orders posted via internet channels have shown a noticeable increase over the past four months. The economy is finally offering some counterbalance to ongoing job losses. Utah's economy remains weak, but indications are that, at worst, the economy has stabilized and found a bottom, and at best is starting to expand and meekly add jobs again. Construction still shows the largest job decline of a year ago -- down 12,200. Construction is the industry that has been in this downturn the longest. Over the past two years, over 36,000 construction jobs have been shed. This has lowered Utah construction employment to levels equaling On the accounting ledger, all of the jobs created during Utah's mid-2000s construction boom have vanished. Utah Department of Workforce Services

13 Washington Conerly Consulting Dick Conway & Associates Doug Pedersen & Associates Office of the Forecast Council Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Conerly Consulting Dick Conway & Associates Doug Pedersen & Associates Office of the Forecast Council Consensus - This Month Washington Update and Outlook Nonfarm payrolls declined 0.1 percent or by 3,800 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis be-tween November and Decem ber. This decrease is somewhat higher than the job losses from a month prior (-1,100), but much smaller than most of the job losses throughout Ten of the eleven prior months in 2009 registered employment declines, with the average monthly loss for these ten months being about 11,500. Monthly job losses in November were initially estimated at 4,800, but were later revised downward to 1,100. Washington State Employment Security Department, at

14 Wyoming Current $ Personal Income Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits WY Dept. of Administration & Information Wells Fargo & Company - UT Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Current $ Personal Income Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits WY Dept. of Administration & Information Wells Fargo & Company - UT Consensus - This Month Wyoming Update and Outlook Over the year, employment decreased by 20,600 jobs, or 6.9 percent. Construction (-6,800 jobs, or 24.8 percent) and natural resources & mining (including oil & gas; -5,800 jobs, or percent) posted the largest job losses. Notable job losses were also seen in manufacturing (-700 jobs, or 7.1 percent), wholesale trade (-700 jobs, or 7.6 percent), retail trade (-2,000 jobs, or -6.0 percent), transportation & utilities (-800 jobs, or 5.3 percent), professional & business services (-1,700 jobs, or 9.4 percent), leisure & hospitality (-1,800 jobs, or 5.5 percent), and other services (-1,200 jobs, or 9.8 percent). Employment increased in educational & health services (900 jobs, or 3.6 percent) and government (including public schools, colleges, and hospitals; 800 jobs, or 1.1 percent). From November to December Wyoming lost 1,600 jobs, or 0.6 percent. This stands in contrast to the normal seasonal increase of approximately 1,200 jobs, or 0.4 percent. Larger than normal seasonal employment decreases were seen in construction (-3,100 jobs, or 13.1 percent) and professional & business services (-700 jobs, or 4.1 percent). Seasonal employment gains occurred in retail trade (400 jobs, or 1.3 percent), leisure & hospitality (1,700 jobs, or 5.8 percent), and government (300 jobs, or 0.4 percent). Wyoming Department of Employment, Research & Planning