MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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- Claribel Jefferson
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1 MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL TRENDS MISSISSIPPI TRENDS EMPLOYMENT HOUSING SALES, REVENUES.
2 National Economy: Not Out of the Woods Private sector jobs growing, if slowly Consumer spending, investment positive Net exports improving; inflation low Government spending falling EU woes slowing world economy Unemployment high, housing weak Toxic financial assets still on books
3 Mississippi Economy: Private Services Leading the Way Jobs, taxes ahead of 2010 Major projects on-line Private service jobs leading way Rough patch slowing consumers, business Manufacturing lagging nation Stimulus funds gone Long-term challenges on hold
4 MS Employment: Recovery Has Far to Go Employment is indexed to month of peak employment level 4
5 Mississippi Parallels US Employment Index Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.
6 MS Regains 2000 Employment In 2016 Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.
7 Mississippi Index of Coincident Indicators
8 Source: MS Dept of Employment Security. Private services employment up 2.2%. Mississippi Employment Growth Year-to to-date (August) vs. 2010
9 Mississippi Employment Growth August 2011 vs August 2010 Source: MS Dept of Employment Security.
10 Construction Employment, Coast and Rest of Mississippi,
11 Mississippi Sectors vs. US (Percent) Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics., July 2011.
12
13 Unemployment Rates, Mississippi Urban Areas Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Sept
14 Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security. Payroll Employment Growth by City August 2011 vs August 2010
15 Source: FHFA, National Realtors Assoc, US Census. MS and US Housing Markets since 2007 % Change 2007:Q1 2011:Q1
16 Value of Housing Building Permits Mississippi, August July 2011 Source: US Census, September 2011.
17 MS and US Housing Markets 2011 % Change 2011:Q1 vs 2010:Q1
18 Foreclosures and Past Due Payments Mississippi Housing Market Source: Mortgage Bankers Association. MS ranked 25 in foreclosures, Q2, 2011
19 Return On Assets (ROA) -- All Commercial Banks Dec Jun Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Jun 11 US MS Earnings appear to have reached the bottom. However, earnings are still well below historic levels. Nationwide banks are now outperforming the state. Source: Brandon Roberts, Ph.D. Premier Insights, FDIC. All commercial banks
20 Non-Performing Assets As A Percent of All Assets Dec Jun Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Jun 11 US MS Banks within MS appear to be working through credit issues that banks nationwide already have. The percentage of non-performing assets in the state is now above national levels. All commercial banks Source: Brandon Roberts, Ph.D. Premier Insights, FDIC.
21 Loan-To-Deposit Ratio Dec Jun Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Jun 11 US MS Loan volume has been falling and deposit volume increasing since 2008.The decline is due more to lack of demand than to tightening standards. Source: Brandon Roberts, Ph.D. Premier Insights, FDIC. All commercial banks
22 Mississippi Retail Sales August 2009 to July 2011 Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue.
23 Transfers to General Fund September 2009 to August 2011 Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue.
24 Growth in State General Fund Transfers FY2011 SOURCE: MS Dept of Revenue, Sept 2011.
25 Growth in State General Fund Transfers FY2012 vs. FY2011 (July and August) SOURCE: MS Dept of Revenue., Sept 2011
26 Mississippi Index of Leading Indicators
27 Major New & On-Going Projects Toyota Auto Plant $1.3 billion LNG Project $1.1 billion HCL CleanTech $1.0 billion Calisolar $600 million Port at Gulfport $570 million Severstal Expansion $550 million Stion $500 million KiOR $500 million Schulz Extruded Products $300 million Source: Mississippi Authority Development, Sept 2011.
28 Economic Growth Rates 2011 (Percent Change) Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.
29 Economic Forecast 2012 (Percent Change) Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.
30 Projected and Past Employment Growth MS and US Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.
31 Projected and Past Output Growth MS and US Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.
32 Forecast Growth Rate of Employment Average Annual Rate Source: MS Center for Policy Research and Planning.
33 State Rankings Percent of Population with College Degree: 19% (US 28%) 48 Per capita income (2010) $31, Federal $ per capita $10,481 7 Patents per capita (2010) 50 Gasoline used per capita (2007) 2 $ damage hazardous weather (2010) 5 SOURCE: CQ, State Rankings US Census.
34 State Rankings Fastest-growing firms 36 Export focus of manufacturing & services 32 Business tax climate 19 Coincident indicators July (tied) 20 Increase in personal income Q1 7 Acres in farms 27 SOURCE: 2010 State New Economy Index, CQ State Rankings 2009, Philadelphia Federal Reserve index.
35 IN SUMMARY Mississippi Economic Outlook: Slow Growth Employment back to 2000 level by 2016 US, world growth have hit rough patch Major projects on-line in state Long-term policy challenges remain Ability to innovate, compete Education, research critical State budget, health, social issues
36 MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK and MISSISSIPPI S S BUSINESS at and Join MS Economy Listserve: contact dwebb@mississippi.edu
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