U.S. Economic Outlook and Implications for Credit Unions

Transcription

1 U.S. Economic Outlook and Implications for Credit Unions July 2018 Samira Salem, Ph.D., Senior Policy Analyst Credit Union National Association

2 Champion for America s Credit Unions CUNA is the largest national association, and the only one that advocates on behalf of all of America s credit unions. Together with the leagues, we work tirelessly to support, protect, unify and advance the credit union movement. It s what we do together that sets us apart.

3 1CUNA 50 STATES and D.C. 5,700 CREDIT UNIONS 110 million 70,000 c r e d i t u n i o n m e m b e r s 11 CORPORATE CREDIT UNIONS b o a r d m e m b e r s 300,000 5,000 c r e d i t u n i o n s e r v i c e p r o v i d e r s credit union professionals C r e d i t U n i o n S e r v i c e 950 O r g a n i z a t i o n s

4 Powered by purpose: CUNA membership Advocate Advocacy lies at the heart of everything we do for members Unify Unequaled network looking out for credit union s best interests Advance Providing the tools to make service excellence a reality Promote CUNA supports the credit union difference Learn more about the power of membership at cuna.org/join

5 Your strongest advocate Fierce advocacy lies at the heart of everything we do for our members.

6 Economic Outlook

7 Federal Reserve s mandate & critical measures Federal Reserve Critical Measures Federal Reserve s Dual Mandate 1. Stable Prices 2. Full Employment of Resources Long-Run Equilibrium Goal Actual Inflation Rate (Core PCE) 2% 2.1% (June 18) Unemployment Rate 5% 4.0% (June 18) Economic Output Gap 0% 0.65% (Qtr1 18) Fed Funds Interest Rate 3% % (June 18) 10-Year Treasury Rate 4% 2.88% (July 27, 2018)

8 Happy days are here again! Strong short-term economic growth (Real GDP) YOY 2nd Qtr = 4.1% 2018 Est. = 3.00% 2019 Est. = 2.25% Post-WWII Average Average since 1980 Average in current recovery Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

9 But is it sustainable? 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% -7.0% 0.0% Output Gap (Left Axis) Federal Funds Rate (Right Axis)

10 Percent Inflation is ticking up (YOY Core Inflation, PCE) Inflation (%) Fed Target Inflation Rate (%) Source: BEA

11 CUNA Economic Forecast June 2018 Actual Results Quarterly Results/Forecasts Annual Forecasts 5 Yr Avg :1 2018:2 2018:3 2018: Growth rates: Economic Growth (% chg GDP)* 2.37% 2.60% 2.20% 3.50% 3.25% 3.00% 3.00% 2.25% Inflation (% chg CPI)* 1.30% 2.10% 2.50% 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% 2.50% 2.25% Unemployment Rate 5.60% 4.10% 4.10% 3.80% 3.70% 3.60% 3.60% 3.80% Federal Funds Rate (effective) 0.36% 1.33% 1.68% 1.90% 2.15% 2.40% 2.40% 2.90% 10-Year Treasury Rate 2.26% 2.40% 2.74% 2.80% 3.00% 3.25% 3.25% 3.30% 10-Year-Fed Funds Spread 1.90% 1.07% 1.06% 0.90% 0.85% 0.85% 0.85% 0.40% *Percent change, annual rate. All other numbers are end-of-period values.

12 Credit union loan growth strong, but reverting back to the mean GDP Growth (left axis) CU Loan Growth (right axis) CU Loan Growth 2018E: 9% CU Loan Growth 2019E: 7% Source: BEA. NCUA, and CUNA

13 Thousands Fast U.S. job growth 400 Avg. Jan.-June 2018: 206K/mo. Avg. 2017: 187K/mo June '18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Current Employment Statistics.

14 And unemployment is at historically low levels 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 7.3% 9.9% 9.3% 8.5% 7.9% 6.7% April Unemployment Rate: 3.9% May Unemployment Rate: 3.8% June Unemployment Rate: 4.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.6% 5.0% 4.7% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 3.6% 2.0% 0.0% Q1 2018E Unemployment Rate Full Employment Source: BLS

15 Low unemployment = higher credit quality CU Delinquency Rate vs. Unemployment Rate CU Loan Growth Rate vs. Unemployment Rate Source: BLS and CUNA

16 Tightening labor market, but wages growth is weak Puzzle: Why aren t wages growing faster??? Inflation (% Change in Headline CPI) Nominal Wage Growth (%) Apr-18 May-18 Source: BLS

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18 1.46% 1.46% 1.40% 1.39% 1.39% 1.42% 1.44% 1.45% 1.49% 1.49% 1.50% 2.04% 1.96% 2.04% 1.97% 1.94% 1.88% 1.87% 1.82% 1.83% 1.81% 1.78% 1.82% 1.75% 1.83% 1.76% 1.81% 1.75% 1.84% 1.74% 1.84% 1.72% 1.83% Employee expenses are increasing for med. & large size credit unions 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% 1.70% 1.60% 1.69% 1.57% 1.50% 1.40% 1.30% 1.20% <$100M $100M-$500M Over $500M All CU Source: NCUA and CUNA

19 The yield curve is flattening Recession Fed Funds 10-Yr Treasury '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Source: Federal Reserve and NBER

20 The budding trade war

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22 Risks to the Economy 1. Trade war 2. U.S. inflation moving higher=> interest rates moving up faster than expected 3. Ballooning U.S. deficit and debt 4. Continued rise in U.S. inequality

23 Credit Union Trends

24 Credit union membership is growing 5X faster than U.S. population growth! (% change) Q1 2018E Source: NCUA and CUNA

25 Credit union loan growth remains healthy (% change) May 18 CU loan growth rates: 9.9% Q1 2018E Source: NCUA and CUNA

26 Consumers are spending so CUs are experiencing weak savings balance growth (% change) May 18 savings growth rate (YOY): 5.7% Source: NCUA and CUNA

27 Credit union dollar delinquency rates have settled (End of Period %) E Source: NCUA and CUNA

28 Healthy bottom line results Steady earnings help boost capital CUNA 2018 Forecast: ROA 83 basis points ROA in Basis Points by Asset Size Category < $20-$50 $50- $20Mil $ $100- $250 $250- $500 $500- $1B 102 > $1 Bil 20 0 ROA (left) Percent with positive ROA (right) Source: CUNA

29 10,862 10,536 10,206 9,898 9,574 9,209 8,877 8,535 8,268 7,966 7,708 7,486 7,236 6,956 6,680 6,398 6,143 5,906 5,684 5,644 The credit union industry has been consolidating 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 18 Qtr1 Source: NCUA & CUNA

30 Nearly all of the consolidation due to large CUs acquiring small < $20M $20M-$50M $50M-$100M $100M-$250M $250M-$500M $500M-$1B > $1B Dec Dec Dec 2014 Dec Dec Dec March 2018 Source: NCUA & CUNA

31 The number of consolidating credit unions has slowed Annual Change in U.S. Credit Unions 0 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 ' Average Annual Change in Number of U.S. CUs By Decade Average Annual % Change in Number of U.S. CUs By Decade % -3.4% -686 '80 to '89 '90 to '99 '00 to '09 '10 to '16-3.7% -3.9% '80 to '89 '90 to '99 '00 to '09 '10 to '16

32 The banking industry is also consolidating

33 The banking industry is also consolidating 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Largest 100 Banking Institutions (1992 market share = 41.1%; 2017 market share = 75.4%) 40% 30% 20% 10% Smaller Banking Institutions (1992 market share = 53.3%; 2017 market share = 17.2%) 0% Source: FDIC, NCUA, and CUNA

34 CUNA Credit Union Forecast June 2018 Actual Results Quarterly Results/Forecasts Annual Forecasts 5 Yr Avg :1 2018:2 2018:3 2018: Growth rates: Savings growth 5.7% 6.0% 3.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 6.0% 7.0% Loan growth 9.8% 10.0% 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 9.0% 7.0% Asset growth 6.2% 6.6% 2.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 6.5% 7.5% Membership growth 3.5% 4.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 3.5% 2.5% Liquidity: Loan-to-share ratio** 77.3% 82.8% 81.0% 82.4% 83.9% 85.4% 85.4% 85.4% Asset quality: Delinquency rate** 0.86% 0.81% 0.66% 0.80% 0.85% 0.85% 0.85% 0.90% Net charge-off rate* 0.54% 0.59% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.65% Earnings: Return on average assets (ROA)* 0.77% 0.77% 0.90% 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% 0.83% 0.70% Capital adequacy: Net worth ratio** 10.9% 11.0% 10.9% 11.0% 11.0% 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% *Quarterly data, annualized. **End of period ratio. Additional information and updates available on our MCUE website.

35 Consumer Financial Health 35

36 S&P 500 monthly average at record heights 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Avg. between 6/6/18 and 7/6/18: 2, Historically every $ gain = $0.03 increase in spending over following two years Source: S&P

37 Home prices are up (YOY % change) consecutive quarterly gains Up 6.4% between since 2017Q Source: FHFA, All Transaction Index, Not seasonally adjusted

38 Price Index U.S. home prices have surpassed pre-recession levels Source: U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States, Index 1980:Q1=100, Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

39 Household net worth is increasing Total net worth as % of disposable income Source: Federal Reserve

40 Percent On average, Americans are making decent income gains Inflation-Adjusted, YOY Changes in Disposable Personal Income '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 ' Source: BEA

41 The average FICO score is going up Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

42 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Ready. Willing. Able Household Debt Total Loans as a % of Disposable Income Household Debt Service Burden Monthly Debt Payments as a % of Disposable Income 40 8 Source: Federal Reserve

43 Consumer confidence is at a 17-year high! Source: Conference Board

44 Yet, 30% of families are just getting by or are finding it difficult to get by 63% 65% 69% 70% 73% 27% finding it difficult to get by or just getting by - 90 million people! 40% could not cover a $400 emergency expense 0 25% of nonretired have no retirement or pension Source: Federal Reserve Report on the Economic Well- Being of U.S. Households