Alabama Business. In this issue: Economic Outlook Quarterly Update Summer Selected Economic Indicators 7

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1 Alabama Business CULVERHOUSE COLLEGE OF COMMERCE AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Summer 2002 / Volume 71, Number 3 In this issue: Economic Outlook Quarterly Update Summer Selected Economic Indicators 7 Alabama in 2000 How have we changed? 8 Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index Third Quarter THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA B U S I N E S S

2 This report is also available in PDF format on the Internet at The Center for Business and Economic Research has available at this site downloadable data on various topics including population, retail trade, and employment. Research briefs are also available. CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Alabama Business Associate Dean for Research and Technology Carl Ferguson Associate Director Samuel Addy Assistant Directors Deborah Hamilton Annette Jones Watters Authors Ahmad Ijaz Carolyn Trent Graphic Design Sherry Lang Mark Your Calendars! January 2003 S M T W T F S The University of Alabama s Center for Business and Economic Research will hold its 2003 Economic Outlook Conference on January 16, 2003 in Montgomery, Alabama. For additional information: Phone: (205) uacber@cba.ua.edu Addtional Contributors Deborah Hamilton Sunja Park Alabama Business is a quarterly publication of the Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama. Articles reflect the opinions of the authors, but not necessarily those of the staff of the Center, the faculty of the Culverhouse College of Commerce, or the administrative officials of The University of Alabama. All correspondence should be addressed to: Editor, Alabama Business, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama, Box , Tuscaloosa, Alabama For information on the Center for Business and Economic Research, the Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration or The University of Alabama: CBER

3 Economic Outlook Summer 2002 United States Overview. Economic statistics released in recent months show the economy gradually recovering from the mild recession of the second quarter of However, continuing layoffs and the lack of business investments may seem to suggest the recovery is derailing. Positive news is that the U.S. economy grew at the fastest rate seen in over two years during the first quarter of Major contributors to the increase in real GDP were private inventory investment, consumer and government spending, residential investment, and exports. However, the surprisingly high rate of growth in the first quarter will probably not be seen again this year. Payroll layoffs in manufacturing and retailing continue, while a substantial decline in stock market valuations could have a psychological effect on consumers. And business spending is still on hold. With overcapacity in most industries, businesses do not have the option to increase prices or hiring. Manufacturing. Although manufacturing orders, shipments, and production are all showing improvement, these have yet to translate into increases in hiring and capital spending. Even the industries that seem to be doing well are still constrained by overcapacity and an inability to increase prices. Many must cut payrolls in order to be profitable. This year alone, manufacturing payrolls have been reduced by 200,000, including 23,000 jobs cut in June. In recent months, manufacturers have seen the value of the U.S. dollar fall against other major currencies. This fall should help exporting firms, although it takes almost six months before any effects of currency devaluation can be observed. Both capital goods and export-related production are now and will continue to be weak for the remainder of the year. However, consumer goods and automobile production are running at a much higher pace than last year. Business equipment output continues to lag, reflecting the reluctance of the corporate sector to increase capital spending. Employment. Even though almost 1.8 million workers lost their jobs during the recent economic downturn, this was the smallest number of job losses in any recession. Payroll employment has stabilized in some sectors of the economy and payrolls are actually increasing in the services sector. But both manufacturing and retailing continue to lose jobs. Manufacturing job losses were primarily in the durable goods sector, particularly in electronic and electrical equipment manufacturing; primary metals; lumber and wood products; and aircraft and parts manufacturing. Retailing lost 18,000 jobs in June, The retailing industry has lost 186,000 jobs since its peak in July Construction, on the other hand, has experienced one of the smallest employment declines of any recession, losing only 243,000 jobs between March 2001 and May 2002, mainly due to a strong housing market. 3

4 increased approximately 8 percent. Applications for mortgages and refinancings are running at record high levels. After increasing 14.6 percent in first quarter 2002, residential investment increased approximately 4.5 percent in the second quarter. Interest rates are expected to remain low, at least in the near term, thus fueling both consumer borrowing and housing sales. Despite these positives, housing starts are now slowing down. Nevertheless, housing remains one of the strongest sectors of the economy and will continue so as long as interest rates remain low. Over the last 12-month period from June 2001 to June 2002, total payrolls have been reduced by almost 1.9 million. Although the employment situation is not expected to improve in the near future, we expect payrolls to stabilize in the coming months. With overtime hours in manufacturing picking up, it will probably be just a matter of time before manufacturers stop cutting jobs. Consumer Spending. Consumer spending increased 3.3 percent in the first quarter of 2002, compared to 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter of Most spending was on nondurable goods and services. Durable goods purchases actually declined 9.4 percent, after an amazing increase of 39.4 percent in the fourth quarter of Sustained consumer spending was one of the main reasons the most recent recession was mild. Consumer expenditures tend to fall during recessions; this time, however, they not only remained strong but surpassed all expectations. With payroll employment still declining and consumers watching their savings and retirement accounts dwindle in the stock market, spending has slowed. Also worrisome is that during the 2001 downturn, consumer debt did not decline as it usually does during a recession. Consumer installment debt is now at levels higher than prior to the recent recession. Despite everything, consumer spending is expected to rise as employment recovers. Most consumer spending will be for automobiles, furniture, appliances, and computers and related equipment. Housing. Housing markets remain generally strong. During the last six months, U.S. housing prices have 4 Business Investment. Business investment and spending continue to lag the rest of the economy. Fixed business investment dropped in the fourth quarter of 2001, followed by another drop in the first quarter of Investment s share of GDP is currently around 11 percent; its 25-year average is 11.6 percent. The current share is significantly below the peak of 13.2 percent experienced in the third quarter of 2000 and the record high level of 13.9 percent in late Business investment spending initially led the economy into a downturn and is still not showing signs of recovery, particularly in communications equipment and software. Although business spending on capital equipment might be picking up, we will not see any noticeable recovery until Outlook. Overall, the U.S. economy is expected to grow 3.8 percent for the remainder of the year, for an average annual rate of 2.5 percent. Industrial production is expected to increase at the modest rate of 0.3 percent. The unemployment rate should average around 6.0 percent. The risks to the forecasts include a large U.S. current account deficit. With the U.S. dollar falling against other major currencies, industrial overcapacity, and weak worldwide demand in general, it could get harder to finance the national deficit without an increase in interest rates. Furthermore, if the U.S. dollar gets substantially weaker, that could prompt foreigners to reduce their exposure in U.S. markets, thus triggering another downward spiral in domestic financial markets. However, the biggest risk to the economy is that consumers will hold on to their cash and credit cards as they see their retirement savings dwindle. Reduced consumer spending would adversely affect the mild economic recovery underway.

5 Alabama Employment. From May 2001 to May 2002, the state s economy gained jobs in some sectors and lost jobs in others, with a net loss overall of 17,000. Although most of the job losses were in manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade also saw significant declines. Manufacturing firms lost 11,500 jobs; the trade sector as a whole lost 5,900; and retailing lost 4,400. Existing overcapacity continues to be a factor behind this downsizing. Two sectors that had major jobs gains during the period were services-related businesses (+2,300 jobs) and the government sector (+4,300). Almost 2,700 of the 4,300 jobs added by governments were in public school systems. Goods producing businesses in the state, which include manufacturing, mining, and construction, account for almost 23 percent of nonagricultural employment. Manufacturing, in particular, generally weakens before the rest of the economy and continues to stay weak until a recovery is well underway. Except for the transportation equipment industry, which includes automobile and defense-related production, every subgroup within manufacturing lost jobs last year. Within nondurable goods production, most job losses were in apparel and other textile firms (3,500 jobs lost) and rubber and plastics producing firms (-1,300 jobs). Within durable goods producing firms, job losses were concentrated in primary metals (-1,400 jobs), fabricated metal products (-700), electronic and other electrical equipment producers (-1,100), 5

6 and industrial machinery and equipment producers (-2,500). Employment in manufacturing is expected to increase very little in the coming year, adding only about 1,800 jobs overall. Most of these will be in auto and related industries. Although consumer spending has remained stable, the state has lost almost 3,200 jobs in services producing businesses. These businesses include transportation and public utilities; finance, insurance, and real estate; services; government; and wholesale and retail trade. In retailing alone, the state lost almost 4,400 jobs between May 2001 and May Transportation and public utilities lost 3,500 jobs. The only sectors that had significant job growth were state and local government and services. Most new state jobs were in education. Finance, insurance, and real estate added approximately 100 new jobs, mostly in insurance and real estate. In 2002 retailing and services businesses are expected to grow faster than goods producing businesses. However, overbuilding of retailing centers continues to affect retailers profitability. All major metropolitan areas of the state are losing jobs in this sector. The Birmingham metropolitan area, the state s largest retailing center, has recently lost almost 300 trade jobs, while the Huntsville metro area lost almost 1,000. Retail and wholesale employment remain flat in Mobile, while Montgomery lost 200 trade-related jobs and Tuscaloosa lost 800. Tax Revenues. During the first nine months of the current fiscal year, total tax revenues increased slightly over last year s levels. Sales tax revenues depend on both consumer and business spending. As the state s economy shows signs of a gradual recovery, so do sales tax revenues. During the first three quarters of the current fiscal year, sales tax revenues have increased almost two percent, or approximately $23 million. Income tax collections tell a different story. Individual income tax revenues declined 0.9 percent, or approximately $16 million, mainly due to payroll layoffs and very little new hiring. Corporate tax revenues, on the other hand, increased 33.6 percent, or $48 million. Appropriations made to the Alabama Education Trust Fund during the first three quarters of the current fiscal year increased almost $37 million over the 6 previous year s comparable time period. However, appropriations made to the state s General Fund declined slightly, by approximately $2.2 million. For the fiscal year as a whole, total tax revenues are expected to increase less than one percent. Sales tax receipts and income tax revenue will increase, but all remaining taxes are expected to decline. Outlook. The state s economy is expected to grow 2.1 percent in 2002; however, employment will lag. The manufacturing sector will remain weak at least through the rest of this year. Most growth will be in services in major metropolitan areas. The state will continue to show divergence between the urban and rural economies of the state, with rural areas contributing very little toward the state s economic growth, particularly in services-related industries. Alabama Nonagricultural Employment Change in Number of Jobs Ahmad Ijaz May 2000 May 2001 to May 2001 to May 2002 Total Nonagricultural -15,500-17,000 Mining Construction 2,600-2,300 Manufacturing -13,800-11,500 Durable Goods -10,800-3,400 Lumber Products -1, Primary Metals -3,200-1,400 Fabricated Metals Industrial Machinery -2,300-2,500 Electrical Machinery 200-1,100 Transportation Equipment -1, Stone, Clay & Glass Nondurable Goods -3,000-8,100 Food Products Textile Mill Products -1,600-1,000 Apparel -1,700-3,500 Paper & Allied Products Printing & Publishing Chemicals Rubber and Plastics 200-1,300 TCPU ,500 Wholesale & Retail Trade -1,500-5,900 FIRE Services 5,000 2,300 Hospitals Total Government -7,100 3,800 Federal Government -9, State Government 2,300 3,600 State Education 2,200 2,700 Local Government Local Education -1, Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations.

7 Selected Economic Indicators United States 2000/Q4 2001/Q1 2001/Q2 2001/Q3 2001/Q4 2002/Q1 Gross Domestic Product (billions) 9, , , , , ,488.6 Percent Change Year Treasury Bond Rate Month Treasury Bill Rate Consumer Price Index Inflation Rate Housing Starts (millions) Percent Change Total Employment (millions) Percent Change Unemployment Rate Alabama 2000/Q4 2001/Q1 2001/Q2 2001/Q3 2001/Q4 2002/Q1 Total Nonagricultural Employment (thousands) 1, , , , , ,891.7 Percent Change Total Manufacturing Employment (thousands) Percent Change Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands) Percent Change Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands) Percent Change Total Wholesale and Retail Trade Employment (thousands) Percent Change Total Services Employment (thousands) Percent Change Alabama Unemployment Rate Initial Benefit Claims (thousands) Manufacturing Weekly Hours Total Tax Revenues (millions) 1, , , , , ,470.1 Percent Change Total Income Tax Revenues (millions) Percent Change Total Sales Tax Revenues (millions) Percent Change Note: All percent changes indicate change over same period of the previous year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce, Alabama Department of Industrial Relations, Alabama Department of Revenue, and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 7

8 Alabama in 2000 How have we changed? Results from the long-form census questionnaire (which sampled one in six households) provide a detailed look at social, economic, and housing characteristics of Alabama residents. These data, coupled with information on general demographic characteristics released last year, are available in four-page.pdf profiles for geographies down to the place level. The complete Summary File 3 data set, which also provides information at the census tract and block group levels of geography, will be released this fall. Access the profiles and other available 2000 Census data at our website, cber.cba.ua.edu. Here we provide a brief overview of Alabama s 2000 census results and take a quick look at how we ve changed since Social Characteristics Educational Attainment Alabamians are more educated. In 2000, 75.3 percent of our residents 25 and over had completed high school. This compares to 66.9 percent of Alabamians with at least a high school degree in And 19.0 percent of the state s 25 and over population held a bachelor s degree or higher in 2000 that s 549,608 college graduates, 150,380 more than in the last census. Of these college graduates, 36 percent held a graduate or professional degree in Just 8.3 percent of Alabamians 25 and over had less than a 9th grade education in 2000, down significantly from 13.7 percent in Marital Status Many of us are married 1,952,261 to be exact, or 55.6 percent of our population 15 and over. However, this is one percent below the married share in A larger number of Alabamians were separated or divorced in ,206, or 12.7 percent, compared to 10.7 percent of residents 15 and over in With improved life expectancy, we see fewer widows and widowers, at 7.8 percent of residents 15 and over in 2000 versus 8.7 percent in Grandparents as Caregivers Alabama had over 56,000 grandparents living with one or more of their grandchildren under 18 and responsible for most of their basic needs. This was a new question in Veteran Status There were 447,397 civilian veterans residing in Alabama in 2000, up slightly (2.9 percent) from 434,787 in Disability Status of the Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population Changes in concepts and age groups make comparing responses in 1990 and 2000 impossible. In 2000 almost half of Alabamians 65 and over said they had some type of disability. Disability is defined to include blindness, deafness, and severe vision or hearing impairment; difficulty performing basic physical activities, such as walking; difficulty learning, remembering, or concentrating; difficulty dressing, bathing, or getting around inside the home; and, for the population 16 and over, difficulty going outside the home alone to shop or visit a doctor s office. Of Alabama s population aged 21 to 64, 23.2 percent had some type of disability. Residence in 1995 We Alabamians are not very likely to leave the state. Just 9.1 percent of the population 5 and over moved out of state between 1995 and Over the five year period from 1995 to 2000, over half of Alabama residents did not move 8

9 (57.4 percent). This share is about the same as ten years ago. Of those who moved, most moved to a different house in the same Alabama county (24.7 percent, down from 25.6 percent in 1990). More Alabamians changed counties within the state between 1995 and 2000 than between 1985 and 1990 almost 366,000, compared to just over 284,600 in However, fewer residents moved to another state during the five years leading up to the 2000 census than in Nativity and Place of Birth Most of the 4,447,100 people living in Alabama in 2000 were born here. Just 87,772 were foreign born amounting to 2.0 percent of the total population and up from 1.1 percent in Almost three-fourths of Alabamians were born in the state, although the percentage dropped slightly from 75.9 in 1990 to 73.4 percent in The share of residents born in another state increased from 22.4 percent in 1990 to 24.0 percent in Region of Birth of Foreign Born The state s small foreign-born population was from three primary regions Latin America (40.5 percent), Asia (29.9 percent), and Europe (21 percent). The number of foreign-born from Latin America increased by over 30,000 between 1990 and In 1990 Alabama residents born in Latin America accounted for only 13.1 percent of the foreign-born population. Language Spoken at Home The share of Alabama residents speaking a language other than English at home rose from 2.9 percent in 1990 to 3.9 percent in Over 60 percent of those speaking another language at home also speak English very well. Economic Characteristics Employment Status In 2000, 59.7 percent of Alabama s population 16 and over was in the labor force. This percentage was down from 61.1 percent in 1990 which could be due to more young people finishing high school or pursuing higher education before entering the labor force. Among females 16 and over, labor force participation was lower than that of the total population at 52.8 percent in For families with children under age 6 in 2000, 58.4 percent reported both parents in the labor force, just below the percentage of 58.7 in Commuting to Work We re spending more time in the daily commute. Mean travel time to work increased from 21.2 minutes in 1990 to 24.8 minutes in And we generally drive it alone. In 2000, 83 percent of Alabama s workers drove solo to work. This share was up from 79.2 percent in 1990, as residents decreased the use of carpools from a 15.4 percent share in 1990 to just 12.3 percent in The number who used public transportation (including taxis) to get to work fell from 13,279 in 1990 to 9,496 in About 39,300 Alabamians (2.1 percent of all workers) worked at home in 2000, up from about 31,100 in Occupation Most Alabamians worked in white-collar occupations in 2000, with 29.5 percent in management, professional, and related areas and 25.9 percent in sales and office jobs. Another 13.5 percent were employed in service occupations. Nineteen percent of Alabama workers held jobs in production, transportation, and material moving occupations, while about 11 percent worked in construction and maintenance jobs. Data on occupational categories are not comparable to 1990 due to changes in the classification system. Industry Data on employment by industry are also not fully comparable between 1990 and 2000 due to changes in classification. Services dominated industry employment in 2000, with 37.8 percent of workers a 9

10 big increase over the approximately 29.4 percent share in Manufacturing lost employment share, with the percentage of workers dropping from 22.9 percent in 1990 to 18.4 percent in Employment in the construction and FIRE sectors also increased strongly during the ten years. While the number and share of workers in retail trade seemed to fall between censuses, this decrease is largely due to classification changes. Some retail occupations in 1990 were reclassified into other categories in Class of Worker The share of Alabama workers in the private sector rose from 75.6 percent in 1990 to 77.9 percent in The percentage of government workers fell correspondingly, from 17.4 percent in 1990 to 15.5 percent in 2000, while the percentage self-employed in their own business stayed fairly steady at 6.6 percent. There were 298,434 Alabamians employed by local, state, and federal governments in Income in 1999 Median income of Alabama s approximately 1.74 million households amounted to $34,135 in In constant 1999 dollars, this household income was up 11.5 percent during the ten years since The households that are families fared better than all households, with median income of $41,657 in 1999, up 11.9 percent, after adjusting for inflation, from Per capita income in Alabama (as calculated by the Census Bureau) rose from $11,486 in 1989 ($14,907 in 1999 dollars) to $18,189 in 1999, for a real increase of 22 percent. Poverty in 1999 The overall well-being of Alabama s residents as measured by the percentage below the poverty level improved moderately between 1989 and In 1999, 12.5 percent of the state s families had incomes below the poverty threshold, compared to 14.3 percent in Although the poverty status of families headed by a female also improved, the poverty level for female-headed families remained much higher than for all families. In 1999, 44.6 percent of singlemom families with children younger than 18 lived below poverty, down from 50.1 percent in Children under 5 in families with only a mother present remained likely to be living in poverty, with 56.6 percent of these families in poverty in Poverty percentages were particularly improved for individuals 65 and over the share of elderly living in poverty fell from 24.0 percent in 1989 to 15.5 percent in Poverty Rates for Alabama (Percent) Families Families with related children under 5 years Single mothers with related children under 5 years Individuals Related children under 18 years Individuals age 65 and older Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Housing Characteristics Type of Structure Almost two-thirds of housing in Alabama was detached, single-family homes in 2000, with the number up over 166,300, although the share was down 1.7 percent from The difference was due in part to a sharp increase in the number of mobile homes. There were 319,212 mobile homes in 2000, or 16.3 percent of all dwellings over 101,400 more than in The number of structures with 20 or more units climbed almost 22,700, or 46.5 percent, during the decade. 10 Year Structure Built About 443,000 of the 1,963,711 housing units count-

11 ed in the state in 2000, or 26.5 percent, were built since January 1, This was up from 391,775 units built in the previous decade. Almost 481,000 housing units were at least 40 years old in The share of units that were 40 years old or more rose from 17.9 percent in 1990 to 24.5 percent in Number of Rooms Houses were slightly larger on average in The median number of rooms was 5.5 in 2000 compared to 5.3 in The percentage of units with seven or more rooms rose from 23.4 percent in 1990 to 27.3 percent in Vehicles Available Fewer Alabama residents were without a vehicle in There were about 143,600 occupied housing units with no vehicle available in This 8.3 percent of the total compares to 10.3 percent in In 2000 most residences had one or two vehicles, while about 21 percent had three or more the same as ten years ago. Home Heating Fuel The decade of the 1990s brought a sizeable jump in Alabamians heating with electricity. Electricity was the primary source of heat for 46 percent of units in 2000, up from 34.6 percent in This represented an increase of 277,220 units. Electricity passed utility gas, which held the dominant share in The number of units heated by utility gas rose almost 16,000, while the sector s share fell from 42.8 percent in 1990 to 38.1 percent in While homes heated by bottled, tank, or LP gas also increased slightly, the share in this category fell from 15.6 percent in 1990 to 14.0 percent in Selected Characteristics Only about 11,000 occupied housing units were without complete plumbing in 2000, down from almost 21,000 in The share without complete kitchen facilities dropped by a third during the decade to less than 10,000. No telephone service was available in 4.2 percent of units in 2000, a sharp drop from 8.7 percent without a telephone in Housing Value The median value of owner-occupied, one-family housing units, measured in constant 2000 dollars, rose from $67,842 in 1990 to $85,100 in This represents a strong real increase of $17,258, or 25.4 percent, in housing value during the decade. In 2000, 61.9 percent of owner-occupied single-family units were valued at less than $100,000, 28.8 percent were valued at $100,000 up to $200,000, 5.7 percent at $200,000 to $300,000, and 3.5 percent at $300,000 or above. Mortgage Status and Selected Monthly Owner Costs More Alabamians held mortgages on their residences in The 64 percent of mortgaged properties compares to 59.9 percent in The median monthly owner cost (including mortgage, taxes, insurance, and utilities) for homes with a mortgage was $816 in 2000, up 15.7 percent in constant 2000 dollars from $705 in For the 36 percent of homes that were not mortgaged, the median monthly owner cost was just $228. The majority of Alabama homeowners (60.5 percent) spent less than 20 percent of 1999 household income on mortgage, tax, insurance, and utilities payments. This was slightly below the 63.1 percent spending less than 20 percent in However, the 13.9 percent spending 35 percent or more of income on housing in 1999 compares to 11.9 percent in Gross Rent Renters in Alabama paid a median gross rent of $447 in 2000, up an inflation-adjusted $32 from 1990, or 7.7 percent. Gross rent includes contract rent, and an estimated average monthly cost for utilities and fuel. Renters tended to be more burdened with housing costs than homeowners 27.4 percent of renters spent 35 percent or more of their 1999 income on housing compared to 13.9 percent of homeowners. Carolyn Trent 11

12 Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index Third Quarter Conflicting signals being sent by the financial markets and economic reports are reflected in the consensus expectations of Alabama business leaders for third quarter A reading of 60 on the Business Leaders Confidence Index (BLCI) indicates moderate economic improvement, but is below the 63 registered in the second quarter. On the year-ago comparisons, the third quarter BLCI of 59 represents the strongest year over economic improvement yet not surprising since third quarter 2001 included the immediate impact of the terrorist attacks. About 64 percent of panelists expect the U.S. economy to improve in the third quarter of 2002 compared to the second quarter. While almost 60 percent anticipate continued generally moderate improvement in Alabama s economy during the quarter, respondents are less worried about a downturn 10.1 percent forecast a decline in economic activity in the state, while 14.1 percent think the national economy could turn down during the quarter. Strength in the Alabama economy should come from sales, with 65 percent of Alabama business leaders forecasting increased sales in their industry in the third quarter. Profit expectations slipped slightly half of panelists anticipate increased profits in the third quarter compared to 56 percent last quarter. Job gains during the quarter will be slight, with about 30 percent of respondents expecting hiring to pick up. Capital spending trends remained positive. Almost 42 percent forecast increased capital expenditures in their industry in the third quarter compared to 13 percent expecting a decline. The Business Leaders Confidence Index combines expectations for the national and state economies as well as industry sales, profits, hiring plans, and capital expenditures from Alabama panelists who complete an online survey. Respondents to the third quarter survey represented all major industry groups in a broad spectrum of businesses statewide. The BLCI is developed in partnership between Compass Bank and the Center for Business and Economic Research. Complete results can be found at blcindex.cba.ua.edu. Carolyn Trent The University of Alabama Center for Business and Economic Research Box Tuscaloosa, Alabama Nonprofit Organization U.S. Postage Paid Tuscaloosa, AL Permit No. 16 Address service requested.