Searching for a New Normal : US & OK Economies in Recovery Larry D. Sanders Dave Shideler Fall snapshot & 2015 forecast
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1 Searching for a New Normal : US & OK Economies in Recovery Larry D. Sanders Dave Shideler Fall snapshot & 2015 forecast US economy is expanding, proving resilience. Ag sector slows but trend at/near record levels Global economy in transition U down but wages slow to recover Federal spending continues down Fed moderates, then ends, quantitative easing, but interest rates & inflation remain low; may hold in place if economy stalls 2 1
2 The world as we know it in Markets are resilient, both domestic and global. 2. Weather is cyclical, both short and long term. 3. The social contract between the public and agriculture continues to support farmers, if in a different form. 4. Consumers continue to prefer a mixed diet that includes meat and sugar and carbs. 5. For agriculture, natural resource constraints are manageable. How likely is it that this world will not change? Macroeconomy & agriculture--linkages Federal Budget Jobs & Economy Global Markets Agricultural Industry, Agribusiness, Rural America Capital Energy 4 4 2
3 How the economy works 5 Out of work 27 wks + Longer than 27 wks 3
4 Q1 14: 0.1% Recession & Recovery: Job Losses & Gains, ; Real Median Household Income, US & OK, Wage levels Recession Job losses (%) Recovery Job gains (%) Higher range ($ ) Mid range ($ ) Low range ($ ) National Employment Law Project, 2013 US in 2013: US in 2013: $51, 939 $51,939 OK in 2013: $43,777 OK in 2012: $44, 312 4
5 Lower Bulk Export Prices and Greater Export Competition $140 $120 Records Billion $ $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 Imports Exports Trade Surplus $0 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 ' (f) $ Billion Net Farm Income & Direct Government Payments ( F) net farm income govt payments NFI-G $113.2 b. $103.9 b. $9.3 b Note: OK producers received $151.4 mil. in net govt. payments in 2013 ($341.7 mil. all payments) & $1.6 bil. in NFI; G/NFI = 10 21%. 5
6 Farm Household Income, Farm and Nonfarm Portions ( ) $ thousands Farm HH income Farm income Nonfarm income Most US farms get most of their household income from non farm market sources 1991: Total farm household income 81% of US household income 2012: Total farm household income 134% of US household income 11 Oil/Gas improving competitiveness across sectors w/significant energy inputs 6
7 US Natural Gas: imports down exports up domestic consumption up US competitiveness up /gas exports/ 7
8 Global economic outlook for growth of GDP, 2014 & beyond Note: projections are based on trend growth estimates, which for the period are adjusted for adjustments from remaining output gaps *Europe includes 27 members of the European Union (excluding Croatia) as well as Switzerland and Norway. **Other advanced economies are Australia, Canada, Iceland, Israel, Hong Kong, South Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China. ***Southeast Europe includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro, and Turkey. Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2014, May 2014 update. board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm Distribution of World GDP in 2000, 2012, 2025 US US US China Note: GDP shares are converted to U.S. dollars using purchasing power parities. Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2014, May 2014 update 8
9 OK Economy in Recovery: Where do we go from here? In a nut shell OK entered the recession later than the US, and employment recovered more quickly In addition to a diversified economy, Ag and Mining were particularly beneficial in the recession mitigation/recovery Ongoing drought and related water issues pose challenges to both Ag and Mining industries Earnings are rising for most sectors Despite low unemployment rates, majority of counties are losing employment; higher wage jobs in particular are declining Concern over civic economy s ability to support continued growth/diversity 9
10 Total Nonfarm Employment, In Thousands Jan 2004 Nov 2004 Sep 2005 Jul May Mar Jan 2009 Nov 2009 Sep 2010 Jul May Mar Source: BEA, Wage and Salary Employment; accessed on accessed October 21, 4:05 pm Jan
11 Oklahoma s Gross State Product, $1, $1, $1, $ $ $ $ Average Weekly Earning by Industry, $0.00 Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Construction Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Manufacturing Mining and Logging Wholesale Trade Source: BLS, State and Metro Area Employment, Hours & Earnings; accessed on accessed October 22, 10:00 am 11
12 Oklahoma Economy by Industry, 2013 Other serv. 2% Government Accomm. & food 15% 2% AER 1% Health care 7% Educ. Serv. Prof. and bus. 0% services 8% FIRE 13% Information 3% Agriculture 2% Mining 15% Utilities 3% Construction 4% Manufacturing 10% Wholesale trade 5% Retail trade Transp. & 6% warehousing 4% Source: BEA, Gross Domestic Product by State, Real GDP; accessed on accessed October 3, 2:35 pm Location Quotients, 2013, and Real GDP Growth Rates, United States and Oklahoma, and Source: BEA, accessed October 3, 3:05 pm Industry LQ % Total Emp, 2013 % Chg Emp, Agriculture % 12.1% Mining % 83.8% Utilities % 23.5% Construction % 18.5% Manufacturing % -3.0% Wholesale trade % 13.4% Retail trade % 4.5% Transp. & warehousing % 6.6% Information % -26.9% FIRE % 0.8% Prof. & bus. serv % 7.2% Educ. & health care % 15.9% AER & accom. serv % 17.1% Other serv % -3.1% Government % 8.3% 12
13 Unemployment Rates, Aug 2014 Source: Compiled from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Employment Gains and Losses (Sept. 13 Sept. 14) Job Gaining Industries (Top 5in descending order of jobs gained) Accommodations (7,800; 5.7%) Job Losing Industries (Top 5 in ascending order of jobs lost) Professional & Technical Services ( 3,800; 5.6%) Health Services (7,300; 3.5%) Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities ( 800; 1.4%) Durable Manufacturing (5,600; 5.9%) Information ( 700, 3.2%) Admin & Waste Mgt (3,900; 4.1%) State Government ( 500; 0.6%) Retail Trade (3,500; 2.0%) Educational Services ( 300; 1.6%) Source: Compiled from OESC Economic Research and Analysis, Oklahoma Employment Report, Sept
14 Employment Growth, Aug Source: Bishop, Bill. Rural Job Growth Rate Half That of Metro. The Daily Yonder, October 6, job growth rate half metro/2014/10/03/7561; using BLS LAUS data
15 $8.000 $7.000 $6.000 $5.000 Appropriated State Budget Amounts In Billions $4.000 $3.000 $2.000 $1.000 $0.000 FY '06 FY '07 FY '08 FY '09 FY '10 FY '11 FY '12 FY '13 FY '14 FY '15 Sources: trends outlooks february 2014 and Change in Revenues FY 07 FY 14: $1,396,457,252 ( $ 117,497,145 in 2014 dollars) September 2014 Charts.pdf 15
16 Build upon our comparative advantages Reduce employment losses Focus economic development efforts on wealth creation and high(er) paying jobs Business retention Entrepreneurship/Economi c gardening Have a strategy for the energy bust Invest in infrastructure Path Forward 16
17 Contact info for assistance
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