The Economic Outlook Focus on the Contra Costa Economy January 2018

Transcription

1 Analysis. Answers The Economic Outlook Focus on the Contra Costa Economy January 2018 Christopher Thornberg Founding Partner, Beacon Economics Director, UC Riverside Center for Forecasting and Development Beacon Economics, LLC

2 It was an interesting year 2

3 The Victory of Miserabilism The Good: Meet the new economy, same as the old economy For all the sound and fury, very little actually happened (x taxes) 2017 solid year for growth: looked a lot like likely to be better: the tax cut stimulus will boost the economy Still a low chance of recession in next 24 months The Bad: Economic Brakes and Growing Imbalances Labor shortage Issues (particularly in California) Consumer savings declines, another bubble forming Aggressive Fed: rising rates, flattening yield curves The Ugly: 2018 will be seen as a historic turning point Little effort to deal with underinvestment in infrastructure, rising wealth and income inequality, healthcare cost inflation, housing Sharp growth in entitlement spending and government deficits Breakdown in basic norms of political leadership 3

4 Oct-01 Apr-04 Oct-06 Apr-09 Oct-11 Apr-14 Oct-16 Jan-07 Aug-08 Mar-10 Oct-11 May-13 Dec-14 Jul-16 Oct-01 Aug-03 Jun-05 Apr-07 Feb-09 Dec-10 Oct-12 Aug-14 Jun-16 Optimism Abounds UM Consumer Sentiment 3 Month MA ISM Diffusion Indexes 3 Month MA S&P 500 Index Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing 4

5 2011Q1 Q3 2012Q1 Q3 2013Q1 Q3 2014Q1 Q3 2015Q1 Q3 2016Q1 Q3 2017Q1 Q3 GDP Growth: 2017 back to 3% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% Y-o-Y Growth Q3 Q4 GDP FD % 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% PCE Fixed Inv Struct Equip IPP Res Invent Net exports Government

6 Jan 12, 1996 Jan 12, 1998 Jan 12, 2000 Jan 12, 2002 Jan 12, 2004 Jan 12, 2006 Jan 12, 2008 Jan 12, 2010 Jan 12, 2012 Jan 12, 2014 Jan 12, 2016 Oil and Exports Weekly US Oil Production to December US Exports (Real) 6

7 Oct-11 Jun-12 Feb-13 Oct-13 Jun-14 Feb-15 Oct-15 Jun-16 Feb-17 Oct-17 Oct-05 Feb-07 Jun-08 Oct-09 Feb-11 Jun-12 Oct-13 Feb-15 Jun-16 Oct-17 Industrial Stats: Meh. 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Industrial Production (Y-o-Y Growth) to Oct 85% 83% 81% 79% 77% 75% 73% 71% 69% 67% 65% Capacity Utilization 7

8 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Oct-02 Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13 Oct-14 Apr-16 Oct-17 Housing Existing SF Homes Sales Housing Starts SAAR 8

9 Home Prices WA-Seattle 10.6% 12.7% NC-Charlotte 5.9% 6.4% NV-Las Vegas 5.6% 10.2% Composite % 6.4% CA-San Diego 5.8% 8.1% National-US 5.2% 6.2% CA-San Francisco 5.6% 7.7% AZ-Phoenix 5.1% 6.0% CO-Denver 8.3% 7.2% NY-New York 2.1% 5.9% MI-Detroit 6.6% 7.1% MN-Minneapolis 5.4% 5.4% TX-Dallas 8.1% 7.1% GA-Atlanta 5.8% 5.0% OR-Portland 10.2% 7.1% OH-Cleveland 4.0% 4.7% MA-Boston 4.4% 6.9% FL-Miami 6.4% 4.4% FL-Tampa 7.8% 6.9% IL-Chicago 2.9% 4.1% CA-Los Angeles 5.5% 6.5% DC-Washington 2.1% 3.1% 9

10 Q3-87 Q3-89 Q3-91 Q3-93 Q3-95 Q3-97 Q3-99 Q3-01 Q3-03 Q3-05 Q3-07 Q3-09 Q3-11 Q3-13 Q3-15 Q :Q1 05:Q2 06:Q3 07:Q4 09:Q1 10:Q2 11:Q3 12:Q4 14:Q1 15:Q2 16:Q3 Ownership- Slight Up 70.0% 69.0% 68.0% 67.0% 66.0% 65.0% 64.0% 63.0% 62.0% 61.0% 60.0% 59.0% Home Ownership 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Growth Outstanding Mortgage Debt 10

11 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Apr-16 Nov-16 Jun-17 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Retail Sales 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Retail Sales (Y-o-Y to Dec) Auto Sales SAAR Online Brick & Mortor 11

12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017Q1 Consumer Spending 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% Real Consumer Spending (3 Month MA Growth) to September 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% Consumer Savings Rate 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 12

13 1980Q1 1982Q3 1985Q1 1987Q3 1990Q1 1992Q3 1995Q1 1997Q3 2000Q1 2002Q3 2005Q1 2007Q3 2010Q1 2012Q3 2015Q1 1990Q1 1992Q1 1994Q1 1996Q1 1998Q1 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 2010Q1 2012Q1 2014Q1 2016Q1 Wealth and Debt 18.5% 18.0% 17.5% 17.0% 16.5% 16.0% 15.5% 15.0% 14.5% 14.0% Household Financial Obligation Ratio Real Average Wealth per Household (FOF, Thous.) Home Equity Other Net Wealth 13

14 03:Q1 04:Q1 05:Q1 06:Q1 07:Q1 08:Q1 09:Q1 10:Q1 11:Q1 12:Q1 13:Q1 14:Q1 15:Q1 16:Q1 17:Q1 03:Q1 04:Q1 05:Q1 06:Q1 07:Q1 08:Q1 09:Q1 10:Q1 11:Q1 12:Q1 13:Q1 14:Q1 15:Q1 16:Q1 17:Q1 California Debt $100.0 $90.0 $80.0 $70.0 California Debt Per Capita (Thous) Share of Debt 90 days plus delinquent $ $50.0 $40.0 $ $20.0 CA ALL 14

15 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Apr-16 Nov-16 Jun-17 Labor Markets Net Change Payroll Jobs 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Growth Payroll Employment (Y-o-Y) %

16 Dec-00 Mar-02 Jun-03 Sep-04 Dec-05 Mar-07 Jun-08 Sep-09 Dec-10 Mar-12 Jun-13 Sep-14 Dec-15 Mar-17 Oct-98 Apr-00 Oct-01 Apr-03 Oct-04 Apr-06 Oct-07 Apr-09 Oct-10 Apr-12 Oct-13 Apr-15 Oct-16 Why Slowing Job Growth? 4.5 JOLT Job Openings Rate (% of Jobs) Unemployment U6 U3 16

17 Jan-98 Jun-99 Nov-00 Apr-02 Sep-03 Feb-05 Jul-06 Dec-07 May-09 Oct-10 Mar-12 Aug-13 Jan-15 Jun-16 Jan-80 Jan-83 Jan-86 Jan-89 Jan-92 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13 Jan-16 Consequences Real Wage Gains 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% Labor Force Growth % 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Median Real 17

18 Under 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over Demographic Limits Population by Age by Nativity (Millions) 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% US Population of Year Olds 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Native Foreign Growth Share

19 The Cure for Secular Stagnation 19

20 1980I III 1985I III 1990I III 1995I III 2000I III 2005I III 2010I III 2015I Tax Reform vs Tax Cuts US Corporate Taxes as % Profit 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Federal State & Local A. Most corporations and households will pay less in taxes B. The plan will give a small short term boost to the economy C. The plan is regressive D. Will add $1.5 trillion to $3.5 trillion to the debt over 10 Years 20

21 Implications , , , ,600.0 CBO: Past and Projected Federal Budget Gap Real Average Net Worth by Bracket < 25 $(1) $0 $(12) 0% 0% 0% $43 $60 $45 3% 3% 2% $166 $227 $204 12% 11% 7% $422 $612 $659 18% 17% 14% $2,317 $3,748 $5,336 67% 70% 77% Top 1% $10,407 $17,772 $26,645 30% 33% 39% 21

22 Fed Tightening Interest Rates Year Rate Spread FFR 1 Yr Tr 10 Yr Tr 22

23 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Sep-97 Sep-99 Sep-01 Sep-03 Sep-05 Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Inflation: Slowing 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% CPI Core Inflation Rate 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% M2 Growth Y-o-Y 0.5% 0.0% 23

24 Jan-86 Jul-88 Jan-91 Jul-93 Jan-96 Jul-98 Jan-01 Jul-03 Jan-06 Jul-08 Jan-11 Jul-13 Jan-16 Frothy Equities Corporate Profits and Growth Shiller P/E Ratio 24

25 Jan-80 Aug-82 Mar-85 Oct-87 May-90 Dec-92 Jul-95 Feb-98 Sep-00 Apr-03 Nov-05 Jun-08 Jan-11 Aug-13 Mar Q1 1990Q1 1992Q1 1994Q1 1996Q1 1998Q1 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 2010Q1 2012Q1 2014Q1 2016Q1 Frothy? Crisis. Crisis? No. 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Nominal Stock Market Growth (S&P 500) Smoothed Annual % 10 Year Returns % 140.0% 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% Debt to GDP Ratios -30% Financial Business 25

26 1/1/03 1/1/05 1/1/07 1/1/09 1/1/11 1/1/13 1/1/15 1/1/17 Slowing Lending 15.0% 10.0% Growth in Direct Bank Loans Net % Banks Responding Yes Demand Standards 2016Q4 2017Q4 2016Q4 2017Q4 auto loans credit card loans % 0.0% -5.0% construction & land development commercial real estate multifamily residential structures C&I loans from large Firms C&I loans from small firms QM jumbo mortgage loans

27 State Economic Performance 5 Year Change in Payroll Jobs by State New Jobs Ann Gr US Share Utah % 1.8% Nevada % 1.5% Florida 1, % 9.5% Idaho % 0.8% Colorado % 2.7% Oregon % 1.8% Washington % 3.2% California 2, % 16.1% Georgia % 4.1% Texas 1, % 11.2% Arizona % 2.3% South Carolina % 1.7% Tennessee % 2.5% North Carolina % 3.3% Montana % 0.3% 700, , , , , , ,000 California: Change in Employment by Income (F.T.) <35K 35-65K k 100K+ 27

28 Q1-00 Q3-01 Q1-03 Q3-04 Q1-06 Q3-07 Q1-09 Q3-10 Q1-12 Q3-13 Q1-15 Q :Q1 2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1 2012:Q1 2013:Q1 2014:Q1 2015:Q1 2016:Q1 2017:Q1 Still Strong Indicators $7,000 California Non Residential Permit Values 6.0% 4.0% Real GDP Growth (y-o-y) $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1, % 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% $0 US CA 28

29 Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Mar-11 Jan-12 Nov-12 Sep-13 Jul-14 May-15 Mar-16 Jan-17 Exports / Travel $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 $130,000 $110,000 $90,000 $70,000 $50,000 California Exports (Nominal) 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 California Airport Activity (Arrivals / Departures) 29

30 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Apr-16 Nov-16 Jun-17 The Big Slowdown 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% State and National Job Growth Nov Inland Empire 1,470, % 3.4% 3.2% Ventura 309, % 1.5% 2.2% Sacramento 978, % 3.1% 2.1% San Francisco 1,125, % 3.3% 2.0% Fresno 346, % 3.2% 1.7% San Jose 1,102, % 2.8% 1.7% Kern 260, % -0.5% 1.6% San Diego 1,457, % 2.3% 1.5% East Bay 1,162, % 2.9% 1.4% Stockton 231, % 2.8% 1.4% Sonoma 203, % 1.6% 1.1% Orange 1,600, % 1.6% 0.8% Los Angeles 4,465, % 2.3% 0.8% 30

31 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-04 Feb-05 Mar-06 Apr-07 May-08 Jun-09 Jul-10 Aug-11 Sep-12 Oct-13 Nov-14 Dec-15 Jan-17 Labor Supply Constraints Unemployment Rate California Labor Force Growth % 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 31

32 The Upside of Labor Shortages Number (Mil) Median Income 2016 Change Part Rate 2016 Change Unemp 2016 Change Total , % 77.1% 0.2% 5.5% -3.0% No High School , % 65.4% -0.5% 8.2% -3.7% High School , % 72.6% -0.4% 7.0% -4.0% Some College , % 77.4% 0.1% 5.5% -3.4% Bachelor , % 85.4% 0.4% 3.6% -1.6% Graduate 82,271 32

33 Population Shifts Net Migration (% of Pop) by region 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% Northeast Region Midwest Region South Region West Region Net Migration by State Florida 1.51% Ohio -0.05% Nevada 1.27% Penn -0.06% Colorado 1.10% Wisconsin -0.08% Oregon 1.08% Michigan -0.08% South Carolina 1.04% New Jersey -0.14% Washington 0.99% Vermont -0.19% Arizona 0.96% W Virginia -0.26% Texas 0.90% New York -0.27% North Dakota 0.79% Mississippi -0.28% Idaho 0.77% Kansas -0.30% Delaware 0.66% Connecticut -0.32% North Carolina 0.66% Wyoming -0.35% Montana 0.60% New Mexico -0.47% Georgia 0.54% Illinois -0.58% Tennessee 0.53% Alaska -0.73% 33

34 Jun-90 Aug-92 Oct-94 Dec-96 Feb-99 Apr-01 Jun-03 Aug-05 Oct-07 Dec-09 Feb-12 Apr-14 Jun-16 Don t Go West, Young Man? 1.50% 1.30% 1.10% 0.90% 0.70% 0.50% 0.30% 0.10% -0.10% -0.30% -0.50% Net Migration as a % of Pop Home Prices US CA LA SF 34

35 Q1-95 Q3-96 Q1-98 Q3-99 Q1-01 Q3-02 Q1-04 Q3-05 Q1-07 Q3-08 Q1-10 Q3-11 Q1-13 Q3-14 Q1-16 New Housing Supply New Home Permits SF MF How Much Housing Needed? Housing Needed to maintain 2% State Job Growth Method 1 Total 722,022 Per Year 206,674 Current 106,185 Shortfall 100,489 Method 2 Total 911,001 Per Year 263,667 Current 106,185 Shortfall 157,482 35

36 Dec-02 Jan-04 Feb-05 Mar-06 Apr-07 May-08 Jun-09 Jul-10 Aug-11 Sep-12 Oct-13 Nov-14 Dec-15 Jan-17 Dec-02 Nov-03 Oct-04 Sep-05 Aug-06 Jul-07 Jun-08 May-09 Apr-10 Mar-11 Feb-12 Jan-13 Dec-13 Nov-14 Oct-15 Sep-16 Aug-17 Employment Cont d Household Employment (000s) Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate 36

37 East Bay Employment Change Annual Industry 2017 (000s) Growth (%) Total Nonfarm 1, Construction Wholesale Trade Education/Health Real Estate Prof Sci and Tech Finance and Insurance Leisure and Hospitality Government Other Services Information Management NR/Mining Manufacturing Logistics Retail Trade Admin Support Nonfarm Employment YoY (%) -8 Q3-00 Q4-04 Q1-09 Q2-13 Q3-17

38 Employment 12.0 Unemployment Rate Labor Force and Growth Rate

39 Contra Costs Industry Industry Q Yr Chg. 5 Yr Chg. Location Quotient Total Employment Admin Support Manufacturing Other Svcs Education Health Care Wholesale Trade Leisure and Hospitality Government Fin. Svcs. and Real Estate Retail Trade NR/Construction Information Prof, Sci, Tech, and Mgmt

40 $ Millions (SA) Taxable Sales & Receipts Taxable Sales Category ($Millions) % Change 1 yr 5 yr Total % 20.9% General Consumer Goods % 4.5% Autos and Transportation % 46.3% Restaurants and hotels % 39.9% Fuel and service stations % -10.0% Building and Construction % 44.5% Business and Industry % -0.1% Food and Drugs % 13.9% 40

41 $ Thousands (SA) $ Thousands (SA) Commercial Permitting 200 Commercial Permits 120 Value by Type Store Office Alterations Industrial 41

42 $ (SA) % (SA) Office Market 27 Submarket Rents 20 Submarket Vacancy Rates North Contra Costa North I-680 West Contra Costa North Contra Costa North I-680 West Contra Costa 42

43 $ (SA) % (SA) Retail Market 34 Submarket Rents 12 Submarket Vacancy Rates Central Contra Costa E Contra Costa W Contra Costa Contra Costa E Contra Costa W Contra Costa 43

44 Q1-00 Q3-01 Q1-03 Q3-04 Q1-06 Q3-07 Q1-09 Q3-10 Q1-12 Q3-13 Q1-15 Q3-16 Thousands Residential Real Estate Single-Family Homes Sales Median Price Percent Change from Previous Peak San Bernardino Santa Barbara Monterey San Benito Solano Riverside Contra Costa Tulare Ventura Napa Kings San Luis Obispo Sonoma San Diego Los Angeles Orange Marin Alameda Santa Clara San Francisco San Mateo 44

45 Q1-00 Q1-02 Q1-04 Q1-06 Q1-08 Q1-10 Q1-12 Q1-14 Q1-16 Q1-01 Q1-03 Q1-05 Q1-07 Q1-09 Q1-11 Q1-13 Q1-15 Q1-17 Sales (SA) $ Thousands (SA) Residential Housing 6000 Home Sales 700 Median Prices

46 Jan-90 Mar-92 May-94 Jul-96 Sep-98 Nov-00 Jan-03 Mar-05 May-07 Jul-09 Sep-11 Nov-13 Jan-16 Supply is Limited Housing Vacancy Rate Months of Supply Alameda Contra Costa 46

47 Q3-02 Q3-03 Q3-04 Q3-05 Q3-06 Q3-07 Q3-08 Q3-09 Q3-10 Q3-11 Q3-12 Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15 Q3-16 Q3-17 Rental Markets 2500 Apartment Rent and Vacancy Rates 7 Submarket Rent Q Annual Change Vacancy Vacancy Rate Rent (%) (p.p) Rent Vacancy Concord/Martinez 1, % -0.2 East Alameda 2, % 2.0 East Contra Costa 1, % 1.2 Fremont/Newark/ Union City 2, % 0.0 North Alameda 2, % -0.5 San Leandro/Hayward 2, % 0.8 San Ramon/Walnut Creek 2, % 0.1 West Contra Costa 1, %

48 Permits Issued (SA) Permits / Housing CC Residential Building Permits Alameda 599,780 40, % Oakland city 167,027 2, % Contra Costa 410,814 21, % San Francisco 392,823 36, % San Mateo 275,947 9, % Santa Clara 665,098 55, % San Jose city 333,355 31, % 5 County 2,344, , % New Jobs Single Family Multi-Family Ratio

49 % Rent Burden and Housing Stock Median Rent as % of Income Single Family 1 Year Change 5 Year Change Location 2016 Abs. % Abs. % Contra Costa 305,280 5, % 14, % Concord 30, % % Antioch 29, % 1, % Richmond 26, % % Multi-Family 1 Year Change 5 Year Change Location 2016 Abs. % Abs. % Contra Costa 97,621 2, % 5, % Concord 15, % % Antioch 6,219 1, % % Richmond 11,319-3, % -3, %

50 Don t Just Focus on Affordable Rentals % Renters Spending >30% of Income on Housing CA Change Less than $20k 92.7% 92.5% -0.2% $20k to $35k 89.0% 89.2% 0.2% $35k to $50k 67.3% 71.9% 4.6% $50k to $75k 41.1% 46.1% 5.0% $75k+ 10.5% 11.8% 1.3% All 56.8% 55.4% -1.4% 50

51 Filtering Blockage Renters by Income: Struture Built Before 1970 Metro Household Income Less than $35,000 Household Income $35,000 to $74,999 Household Income $75,000 or More San Francisco 26.5% 22.2% 51.2% East Bay 31.4% 32.6% 36.0% San Diego 35.0% 33.5% 31.5% Orange 32.4% 36.3% 31.3% Los Angeles 40.2% 31.7% 28.0% Houston 45.4% 31.4% 23.2% Inland Empire 47.5% 30.7% 21.8% Phoenix 50.3% 28.2% 21.5% Dallas 46.6% 33.0% 20.4% 51

52 The Big Picture Positives: It will be a good year GDP Growth Outlook for 2018: 3% State revenues will look positive Labor markets to remain tight, constraining growth Rising wages to put pressure on profits Exports, business investment continue to pick up California housing shortages will constrain growth locally Negatives Fed will continue to tighten, yield curve flattening Markets looking frothy watch debt levels Consumer savings: entering dangerous waters Federal deficit will widen sharply Political uncertainty to dominate headlines 52

53 The Great Disconnect What we are worried about The Number of Jobs Who pays for Healthcare Tax Levels Income Inequality Funded Govt. Liabilities Business Investment Inflation The Cost of CA Housing What we should be worried about The Number of Workers What are we paying for? Tax Structure Wealth Inequality Unfunded Govt. Liabilities A Lack of Public Investment Slowing Lending The Supply of CA Housing 53

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