The Outer Banks Economy. Bureau of Business Research A front door to faculty expertise in the ECU College of Business

Transcription

1 The Outer Banks Economy James (Jim) Kleckley, PhD Director, Bureau of Business Research April 2012 Bureau of Business Research A front door to faculty expertise in the ECU College of Business Applied research, education, and training using the appropriate College expertise Storehouse of economic and business data Forecast modeling (Nation, North Carolina, NC Counties) and special use modeling for business and government Impact models using IMPLAN Special projects and studies 1

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6 NABE Forecast Forecast panel of about 50 professional economists and members of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) NABE forecast was published in February BBR forecast was updated in March 6

7 National Association for Business Economics, February 2012; BBR Forecast March 2012 National Association for Business Economics, February 2012; BBR Forecast March

8 US Forecast The NABE Outlook Panel continues to predict moderate real GDP growth through Forecast uncertainty is subsiding Employment growth brightens, but consumer spending to remain subdued. Housing starts are expected to increase very modestly Strong business spending growth is expected Federal budget deficits remain large, but should continue to gradually decline. Persistent economic slack will cause inflation to remain low The federal funds rate will remain unchanged and near zero, consistent with Fed guidance National Association for Business Economics, February 2012 Risks to the Forecast US Budget Deficit Tax and Budget Reform Energy Prices and Dependency Middle East issues Health Care Implementation Immigration Reform The European Union Debt Problem => Which could be the US if we don t act 8

9 Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates Sorted within Group (Lowest to Highest) January 2012 for NC Substate; February 2012 for US and States Unemployment Unemployment Rank Rate Rate Virginia 5.7% Maryland 6.5% 2 Gates 7.2% Delaware 7.0% 3 Camden 7.2% West Virginia 7.2% Pennsylvania 7.6% 4 Currituck 7.2% Connecticut 7.8% Tennessee 8.0% 28 Perquimans 9.3% United States 8.3% 44 Hyde 10.0% Georgia 9.1% 46 Tyrrell 10.1% South Carolina 9.1% 53 Pasquotank 10.5% North Carolina 9.9% 62 Hertford 10.9% 63 Chowan 11.0% Research Triangle Regional Partnership 8.4% 64 Beaufort 11.0% AdvantageWest Economic Development Group 9.7% Piedmont Triad Partnership 9.9% 67 Dare 11.1% Charlotte Regional Partnership 10.1% North Carolina's Eastern Region 10.4% 72 Northampton 11.5% North Carolina's Southeast Commission 10.8% 76 Martin 11.5% North Carolina's Northeast Commission 10.9% 80 Bertie 11.8% 87 Washington 12.6% Orange (1) 6.2% 94 Halifax 13.6% Wake (8) 7.8% Mecklenburg (41) 9.9% Counties and regions are seasonally adjusted by BBR. The Nation are from BLS while the unadjusted data is from and State rates Scotland (100) 17.2% ESC of NC. 9

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12 Seasonally adjusted by BBR 12

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14 Seasonally adjusted by BBR Not Seasonally Adjusted 14

15 Twelve month moving average Twelve month moving average 15

16 Compiled by BBR using Dare County Tax Records 16

17 The Outer Banks Forecast Tourists will continue to come Spending patterns should remain conservative Gas Prices will matter (both increases and decreases) Ever changing competitive environment The national economy will be growing as we come to the summer, but not at a fast pace Share of the market to the drive to locations Construction should remain sluggish Structural change in demand Excess inventory Affordability Outer Banks Visitors and Spending Timing of national growth continues to be important 17