2017 State of the North San Joaquin Val ey SPONSORED BY

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1 2017 State of the North San Joaquin Valley SPONSORED BY

2 Welcome! Stacy McAfee, Ed. D. Associate Vice President for External Relations, Strategic Partnerships and Presidential Initiatives University of the Pacific SPONSORED BY

3 The 2016 NSJV Index Dr. Jeffrey Michael Executive Director, CBPR University of the Pacific 2017 State of the North San Joaquin Valley SPONSORED BY

4 CBPR North San Joaquin Valley Project 2014 North San Joaquin Valley Assessment Project Found NSJV Is An Increasingly Distinct Economic Region from the Rest of the Central Valley, and the Three Counties Are Increasingly Integrated Identified 3 Areas For NSJV Regional Action Regional Identity, Marketing, Branding as part of the Northern California Mega-region Infrastructure Development and Planning Human Capital and Workforce Skills The Annual NSJV Index Continues This Effort Thanks to JP Morgan Chase Foundation

5 Where is the NSJV? Political/Historical Geography Is Not Economic Geography

6 The North San Joaquin Valley is a core part of the Northern California Megaregion.

7 In 2013, the Federal Government added San Joaquin County to the San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland Combined Statistical Area. By 2023, Stanislaus and Merced are likely to join it as well.

8 Regional Commuting Patterns: Labor markets are key to defining economic regions Source: CBPR, based on CTPP 5-year data.

9 Has the Region Made Progress In The 3 Focus Areas? Regional Identity: Distinct Region Within The Mega- Region Key External Thought Leaders Like The Bay Area Council Have Are On Board Infrastructure Planning and Development Some progress on transportation Ace Train and San Joaquins Why not a regional airport? Human Capital and Workforce Skills Today s panel and area of future focus.

10 2017 NSJV Index & NSJV Indicators The 2017 NSJV Economy People and Society Place NSJV Indicators website:

11 Economy of the NSJV Employment Output Income Commercial Real Estate Agriculture Regional Innovation System Small Business

12 Job Growth Trends (March to March growth) - In 2017, the NSJV surpassed 500,000 payroll jobs. - Since 2011, NSJV has added 85,000 payroll jobs. 510, , % 2.6% 470, % 450, , , % 1.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1.6% 1.0% -0.9% 2.4% -5.2% -3.2% -0.4% 2.3% 3.1% 2.4% 390,

13 Unemployment in the NSJV Is Down to 8.4% 18.0% 16.0% NSJV 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% California 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

14 Employment Change in Past Decade -Transportation/Trade and Healthcare account for majority of growth. - Loss of Middle-Class Jobs, Fastest Growth in lower-paying jobs. 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - (5,000) (10,000) (15,000) Agriculture Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans, & Utilities Information Financial Activates Prof. & Business Serv. Ed & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government

15 Employment Change in Past Year - Growth is Far More Balanced Across Industries 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Agriculture Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans, & Utilities Information Financial Activates Prof. & Business Serv. Ed & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government

16 Real GDP (2009$) Trends NSJV has a $54 billion annual economy in 2016 dollars, larger than 4 states. $50, % $45, % 2.5% -0.2% -2.1% -2.4% 0.3% -0.6% -0.4% -1.5% 2.6% 3.7% 2.9% 5.5% $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25, Income/Output recovery has been slower than the job recovery.

17 Per Capita (e.g. average) income is growing slowly, and has been relatively steady for past 15 years after adjusting for inflation. But the gap with California has increased. Real per Capita Income - Avg. Income Did Not Decline as much in recession as Median Income (next slide) $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 California $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 San Joaquin Merced Stanislaus

18 Real Median Household Income - Strong Gain in 2016 After Steep Decline In Recession That Devastated Middle-Class $70,000 $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 Merced Stanislaus California San Joaquin $30, Despite large 2016 gain, all NSJV counties are still below pre-recession levels of median household income after adjusting for inflation.

19 NSJV Poverty Rates Declined Sharply in % 28.0% 26.0% 24.0% 22.0% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% Stanislaus San Joaquin California Merced Closing Poverty Gap With California as Statewide Poverty Is Still 2 Percentage Points Above Pre-Recession Levels.

20 NSJV value of agricultural production After Years of Record Growth, Two Years of Decline $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 Merced Stanislaus San Joaquin $1,

21 Farm Wages Trends Farm wages kept increasing despite farm revenue drop. Farm wages flat from 2008 to 2011 on hourly and total basis. Since 2011, Average weekly farm wage grew from $502 in 2011 to $637 in Total farm wages grew from $1 billion in 2010 to $1.5 billion in $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 Total wages (thousands $) $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $

22 Knowledge Intensity (Patents per Employee) Greater Bay Area 54.5 Utility Patents Granted per 10,000 Employees (Logarithmic Scale) United States 7.4 Greater Sacramento Area 5.2 NSJV 2.1 SSJV

23 New Firm Birth and Death Rates Are Below Average in the NSJV. 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% NSJV 9.4% United States 10.0% California 11.5% NSJV 8.2% United States 8.6% California 9.5% 0% 2014 Birth Rates 2014 Death Rates NSJV Firm Death Rate Peaked at 12.4% in NSJV Firm Birth Rate Was Over 13% in

24 NSJV Small Business Survey Shows Rising Demand. NSJV small business over past 4 months Fall '16 Spring '17 Fall '17 Falling Quickly 0% 1% 1% Falling 13% 12% 7% Demand for products/services Staying about the same 44% 38% 38% Rising 35% 42% 45% Rising Quickly 8% 7% 9% Falling Quickly 0% 1% 1% Falling 10% 6% 6% Employment Staying about the same 71% 68% 74% Rising 17% 24% 18% Rising Quickly 2% 1% 1% Falling Quickly 0% 0% 0% Falling 4% 5% 4% Operating costs Staying about the same 35% 44% 43% Rising 52% 44% 48% Rising Quickly 8% 6% 5%

25 NSJV Small Businesses Are Getting More Concerned About Skilled Labor, Less Concerned About Demand Rating Average Fall '17 Rating Average Spring '17 Availability of Skilled Labor Housing Costs and Affordability Infrastructure (Transportation) Business Real Estate Costs and Availability Local Consumer Demand Not at all concerned Unconcerned Neutral Concerned Very concerned

26 People of the NSJV Demographics Human Capital Formation Social Capital Safety

27 Population Growth and Migration NSJV Population Grew 1.2% last year, up to million. Added 18,000 New Residents. Domestic Migration positive since 2014, after negative period International Migration dropped in 2016, less than half the level of a decade ago. 45,000 Net Inflows 35,000 25,000 15,000 Net Outflows 5,000-5,000-15,000 Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration Total Net Migration

28 NSJV Birth Rates Steady After Large Declines. Births per 1,000 people California NSJV Merced San Joaquin Stanislaus

29 Population forecast: add 20,000 people per year over next decade, 2 million by ,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 2,312,641 2,416,265 2,211,862 2,108,602 1,922,607 2,013,874 1,822,384 1,525,982 1,617,2981,715,829 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,

30 Violent crime rate Recent increases, after previous declines. Felony rate continues to decline as drug-related arrests decline. Violent Crimes per 100,000 people 1,000 San Joaquin Stanislaus 700 Merced California

31 NSJV as a Place Housing Environment and Geography Transportation Health Travel and Tourism

32 Residential Building Permits Trends 14,000 Number of residentail unit permits issued 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Single Multi Single Multi Single Multi Single Multi Single Multi Single Multi Single Multi Single Multi Single Multi Single Multi Single Multi Single Multi Single Multi Single Multi Single Multi Single Multi Single Multi

33 Percent of Housing Units that are Owner Occupied 75% 70% United States 65% NSJV 60% 55% California 50%

34 Trends in Median Home Sale Price Housing Values Are Once Again Over the U.S. Average $600,000 $500,000 California $400,000 $300,000 San Joaquin $200,000 $100,000 $- Stanislaus United States Merced

35 Share of Households Spending Over 30% of Income on Housing 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% California NSJV United States Decreased Costs Primarily For Owner-Occupied Households With Mortgages, Not Renters.

36 NSJV Vehicle Miles Traveled Increased in 2015, After Years of Decline ,733 8, ,582 8,696 NSJV ,534 8,701 California ,540 8,744 8,000 8,200 8,400 8,600 8,800 9,000 9,200 9,400

37 ACE Train Ridership Is Growing ,295,414 1,255,203 1,185,282 1,021, , , , , , , , , ,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 ACE Train

38 Population With Health Insurance 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% United States NSJV California 75%

39 Tech Jobs in the NSJV: Bridging the Skills and Confidence Gap Moderator: Thomas Pogue, Ph. D. Associate Director, CBPR University of the Pacific SPONSORED BY

40 Public High School Graduation Rates 86% 84% 82% 80% 78% 77.0% 77.1% 78.6% NSJV 78.9% California 81.9% 81.8% 80.4% 81.0% 84.0% 84.1% 82.3% 83.2% 76% 74.7% 74% 73.5% 72% 70% 68% The North San Joaquin Valley region has outpaced the state since in graduation rates

41 College readiness of graduates 50% 45% 40% California 35% 30% 25% NSJV 20%

42 Educational attainment over time in the NSJV 100% 90% 4.2% 5.3% 9.5% 10.8% Graduate/Professional Degree 80% Bachelor's Degree 70% 30.6% 32.3% 60% Some College/Associate's Degree 50% 40% 25.3% 27.0% High School Graduate 30% 20% Less than High School 10% 30.3% 24.7% 0% % high school graduate or lower in 2000, but only 24.7% in % with some college or higher in 2000, but 48.3% in 2016

43 Changes in Human Capital

44 2015 Human Capital Index

45 Entry-Level and Experienced Wages with Living Wages by Occupational Group for San Joaquin County (May 2016) $50.00 Entry-Level Wages: Pct 10 Hourly Experienced Wages: Median Hourly $45.00 Living Wage for 1 Adult Living Wage for 1 Adult 1 Child $40.00 $35.00 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $-

46 Tech Jobs in the NSJV: Bridging the Panelists: David Darmstandler, CEO/Co-Founder of Datapath Tammy Brecht Dunbar, M. Ed., STEM, Manteca Unified School District & Teachers College of San Joaquin Skills and Confidence Gap 2017 State of the North San Joaquin Valley SPONSORED BY

47 Tech Jobs in the NSJV: Bridging the Panelists: David Darmstandler, CEO/Co-Founder of Datapath Tammy Brecht Dunbar, M. Ed., STEM, Manteca Unified School District & Teachers College of San Joaquin Skills and Confidence Gap 2017 State of the North San Joaquin Valley SPONSORED BY

48 2017 State of the North San Joaquin Valley Please share your opinion: Thank you! See more of the NSJV Index online at: Learn more about the NSJV at: SPONSORED BY

Dr. Jeffrey Michael. Director, Center for Business and Policy Research University of the Pacific

Dr. Jeffrey Michael. Director, Center for Business and Policy Research University of the Pacific 2016 San Joaquin County Economic Outlook Dr. Jeffrey Michael Director, Center for Business and Policy Research University of the Pacific U.S. and California Economic Outlook: Themes Strengths U.S. consumption