US Economic Outlook Improving
|
|
- Jared Stevens
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Government Bonds Have Never Looked Less Attractive OUTLOOK Executive Summary Kenneth J. Taubes Chief Investment Officer, US Economic Outlook US GDP growth may lead growth among developed nations, at approximately 2.% over the next year and over 2.% for the second half of 216. Solid employment should continue to support consumption and the housing market; inventory restocking and government spending should also contribute to growth. The Brexit leave decision may have a modest negative impact on global growth, but this negative impact may be offset by improving growth in emerging markets. Global economies will continue to be supported by easy global monetary policy. Following on improving economic data and easier financial conditions, we believe the Federal Reserve may consider increasing rates in 216. It may, however, take a cautious approach to rate increases, monitoring international developments and particularly the impact of Brexit on global growth, thereby reducing the possibility of sharp dollar appreciation. Market Outlook Most developed market sovereigns, including US government debt, offer little value, with negative nominal yields or in the case of the US, negative or very low real yields. Corporate and structured credit remain attractive based on relative value and fundamentals Select emerging market sovereigns are attractive, with reasonable valuations, stabilized commodity prices and improving growth prospects. The US dollar should trade in a range, given less hawkish Federal Reserve policy. We favor US equities over fixed income, based on more attractive relative value. US earnings growth, while limited, is improving. US Economic Outlook: Improving GDP Growth Recent US economic data indicate that the US may deliver growth of over 2% as well as modestly higher inflation for the second half of the year, for overall 2.% GDP growth over the next 12 months. While second quarter GDP growth came in below expectations at 1.2%, real final sales (GDP less inventories) rose at a solid 2.4%, as consumer spending increased 4.2%. Inventory destocking accounted for the major drag on second-quarter GDP, reducing total GDP growth by 1.2%. The inventory component has now reduced growth in each of the past five quarters, representing the most extended period in 6 years. As corporations liquidated excess inventories, they saw little need for capital spending, resulting in the worrisome decline in non-residential (business) investment at -2.2%, including -7.9% for structures and -3.5% for equipment. On a contribution basis, non-residential investment reduced GDP by -.3% and has now detracted from GDP growth for the past three quarters. Corporations may have deferred investment in the face of heightened uncertainty caused by Brexit and the upcoming US election. In addition, rig counts of US energy firms only bottomed in May. The sector has accounted for a significant portion of recent fixed investment over the past five years.
2 As oil prices stabilize at higher levels, and with receding risks from Brexit, we anticipate a rebound in inventories and a potential increase in fixed investment in the second half of the year. Key employment indicators suggest continued economic strength. Positive Momentum Over the next six months, US GDP may advance on multiple fronts, with the US consumer continuing to drive growth. The Citi US Economic Surprise Index has reflected this positive momentum, coming off its near-term May low of -4. to 1. as of 8/23/16. Key employment indicators suggest continued economic strength. Non-farm payrolls rebounded in July for an average gain over the past three months of 19, and both ISM manufacturing and services employment indices recovered to over 5.. The four-week moving average of weekly initial jobless claims, a leading employment indicator, has fallen to near 4-year lows. Labor Market Showing Strong Gains Net Change (Persons in s) Non-Farm Payroll 12 month Average 3 month Average Source: Bloomberg, latest data point 7/31/16 Importantly, while employment gains have decelerated as the economy nears full employment, monthly payrolls gains need not match the 23, average of the past few years to achieve further declines in the unemployment rate. As long as non-farm payroll employment grows by at least 1, per month, the unemployment rate should continue to decline. As indicated in the chart below, the size of the labor force is a major determinant of nominal GDP growth. In July, the US labor force grew by 1.4% year over year. Adjusted for the participation rate, it grew by 1.7%, which represents the second strongest rate of change in eight years. Labor Force and GDP Growth 2 Nominal GDP (%) % 11 3% % 8 7 2% 6 1.1% 5 4 1% 3 2.5% US Labor Force YoY Change (5yr moving average, right) Source: Bloomberg. Last data point 7/31/16 NGDP YoY Change (5yr moving average, left) Labor Force
3 It is the recent surge in retail sales, however, that represents the most important current consumption-related data. Rising employment, wage growth, low mortgage rates, increased household formation and easing credit standards have underpinned strong consumer spending. New and existing home sales stand at respective 8-year and 9-year highs, and housing starts have recently broken out above average 215 levels. While down from last year, auto sales remain solid. It is the recent surge in retail sales, however, that represents the most important current consumption-related data. Having lagged earlier in the year, retail sales came in well above expectations in June, delivering a meaningful recovery in total real consumption of 4.2% for the second quarter, compared to 1.6% for the first quarter. Although consumption continues to drive growth, government spending may also contribute significantly to growth over the next year. Second half government spending should improve, as the benefits of the 215 budget bill come on stream, after falling.9% in the second quarter. Furthermore, both US presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, have indicated significant commitment to infrastructure spending in the next administration, which would further bolster the contribution from government spending. We believe that the moderating US dollar and recovering oil prices have enabled a bottoming, and even a modest recovery, in manufacturing and business investment, which reduced GDP growth in 215 and in the first half of 216. The June and July manufacturing ISM rose well above consensus to 53.2 and 52.9, respectively, buoyed by respective gains in new orders to 57. and 56.9, up from the December low of 48.. The non-manufacturing ISM surged to 56.5 and 55.7 in June and July, with new orders even stronger at 59.9 and 6.3, respectively. New Orders Helped Buoy Manufacturing Manufacturing Index 7 6 Index Level Dec-99 Dec-4 Dec-9 Dec-14 Manufacturing Index Manufacturing New Orders Non-Manufacturing Index 7 6 Index Level Dec-99 Dec-4 Dec-9 Dec-14 Non-Manufacturing Index Non-Manufacturing New Orders Source: Bloomberg, last data points 7/31/16 3
4 June and July industrial production came in well above expectations, reflecting in part the turnaround in mining (which includes oil exploration and production). The mining sector rose.7% in July compared to the prior month. Although current $47 oil prices have fallen from their recent $51 high, they have recovered significantly from their $26 low in early February. Business investment may benefit as higher oil prices encourage higher rig counts; US rigs have already increased by 15% from their May lows. Inflation may increase over the second half of the year. Wage inflation, which is closely watched by the Fed, continues to grind higher. Inventory destocking was a primary cause of low second-quarter GDP. However, we anticipate that inventories may also add to growth over the next few quarters, given improved second quarter real final sales of 2.4% (they tend to lead inventories by three to six months) 1 and our expectation that manufacturing and energy have stabilized. Higher Inflation Inflation may increase over the second half of the year. CPI and core CPI rose.8% and 2.2% respectively, year-over-year in July, compared to.7% and 2.1% at year-end 215, as the dollar has moderated, wages have increased and energy prices have recovered. Core PCE, the preferred inflation measure of the Fed, rose 1.6% year-over-year in June, and is up 1.9% year-to-date, annualized, compared to 1.4% in December, 215. Wage inflation, which is closely watched by the Fed, continues to grind higher. The employment cost index (ECI) has risen from 1.9% year over year in the first quarter of 216, to 2.3% in the second quarter. Average hourly earnings (AHE) have increased steadily to the current 2.6% year over year as of July, from 2.3% in 215 and 2.1% in 214. Finally, the Atlanta Fed s wage tracker indicates that median wage growth has climbed from less than 2.% in 212 to 3.6% over the past year. Median Wage Growth % Change Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar- Mar-1 Mar-2 Mar-3 Mar-4 Mar-5 Mar-6 Mar-7 Mar-8 Mar-9 Mar-1 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Source: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, June Source: Barclays US GDP and annual revisions as of 8/5/216. 4
5 The global growth in money supply has helped reduce yields and the cost for credit. While the ECI and AHE levels are atypically low at this point in the cycle, the continued upward trend is significant. We believe GDP growth and inflation may increase in the wake of easier financial conditions, which will continue to support the US consumer. In particular, the moderating dollar, a rising global money supply, higher energy prices, easier lending conditions, and lower corporate spreads and lower mortgage rates have created a favorable environment for growth. The global growth in money supply has helped reduce yields and the cost for credit. Global Growth in Money Supply USD (B) US EUR (M) EU 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, JPY (B) 2, Japan 15, 1, 5, CNY (B) China 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, GBP (M) UK 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, INR (B) India 1,4 1,2 1, Source: Datastream, last data point 6/3/16. Currencies expressed in USD-US dollar, EUR-euro, JPY-Japanese yen, CNY-Chinese yuan, GBP-Great British pound, INR-Indian rupee. Given this constructive outlook for GDP and inflation, we believe that the September 21, 216 meeting may represent a live meeting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as indicated by Vice Chairman William Dudley. However, ultimately they will only discuss raising rates at this meeting. We believe that December 14, 216 represents the more likely date when the Fed will increase rates. Fed Chair Janet Yellen began making the rate case at her August 26, 216 Jackson Hole speech. 5
6 Market Outlook We continue to believe credit sectors offer value compared to government securities. Fixed Income We continue to believe credit sectors offer value compared to government securities. With approximately 35% of the global treasury market trading at negative nominal yields and US Treasuries of 1 years and below trading at negative real yields (using core PCE as the inflation measure), government securities have never looked less attractive. We have never believed that it makes sense to pay a borrower for the privilege of lending them money. Corporate credit continues to be moderately attractive. Corporate balance sheets are strong and profits may increase as economic growth improves, the value of the dollar moderates and energy prices stabilize. Second quarter earnings, although still weakened by the energy sector, have come in better than expected with 7% of companies reporting positive earnings surprises, compared to a long-term average of 63%. In addition, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) increased its estimate of first quarter corporate earnings growth in its annual 216 adjustment. Corporate Profits Percent Change from Previous Period, SAAR 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% 33.1% 14.3% 4.1% 3.6% -6.6% -3.2% -1.% -11.5% -22.3% Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, last data point 3/31/16. SAAR Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 6
7 Corporate Fundamentals Are Normal Earnings leverage ratios remain within normal ranges, and coverage ratios benefiting from low rates have risen to near all-time highs. Although investment grade and high yield spreads have narrowed recently to levels below long-term averages, high yield default rates, excluding the energy sector, should remain well below long-term averages over the next few years. The par-value high yield default rate in June, excluding the energy and metals and mining sectors, was a mere.53%. 2 We see particular value in bank loans, where BB and B yield to maturities are only modestly lower than the corresponding ratings in the high yield market, but without the duration risk. Yield to Maturity: BB HY Loans vs. Bonds % Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 BB Loans BB HY Bonds Yield to Maturity: B HY Loans vs. B HY Bonds % Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 B Loans B HY Bonds Source: Bloomberg, last data point 7/27/16 Non-agency structured credit is attractive in light of the strong housing and commercial real estate markets in the US. We continue to find high quality non-agency mortgage-backed securities jumbo prime new issues attractive. Although supply remains limited, with banks retaining the bulk of this underwriting on their balance sheets, these credits trade approximately 2.5% behind like-coupon agency pass-through securities. Select higher yielding emerging market sovereigns are attractive, with reasonable valuations and stabilized commodity prices. Most recently, emerging market issues have rallied, as investors have viewed these economies less vulnerable to the Brexit fallout than the UK and European markets. 2 JP Morgan Default Monitor, July 1,
8 Despite the recent uptick in value stocks, US growth should continue to outperform in this low growth environment. A Moderating US Dollar After its record appreciation in , we believe the US dollar should trade in a range, given less hawkish Federal Reserve policy. We believe the FOMC could raise rates this year. That said, the latest FOMC statement in July, while more positive, shows continued caution with respect to rate increases. Even post-brexit, with anticipated easing among non-us central banks, the dollar has not retraced to its October highs. Equities We favor US equities over fixed income as valuations are relatively better. US earnings growth, while limited, is improving. However, after the strong performance of US equity over the last five years, absolute valuations are becoming higher while international equity is starting to become more attractive. Adjusted for inflation, earnings yields are significantly more attractive than real bond yields. Even 1-year US Treasuries, when adjusted for inflation, offer a negative real yield. Despite the recent uptick in value stocks, US growth should continue to outperform in this low growth environment. Sector Weights: Russell 1 Growth Index vs. Russell 1 Value Index Russell 1 Growth Index Russell 1 Value Index % Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Technology Materials Telecommunications Utilities Source: Pioneer Investments and Bloomberg. As of 6/3/16. Russell 1 Growth Index measures the performance of large cap US growth stocks. Russell 1 Value Index measures the performance of large cap US value stocks. Indices are unmanaged. It is not possible in invest directly in an index. Within value, we believe demand for income-oriented securities will continue as long as the low rate environment persists. We favor large- over small-cap companies in the US, as we believe market leadership is shifting toward large cap after a 15-year run in small cap. There are also opportunities in mid-cap stocks, many of which have solid prospects and should do well in a slow growth environment. 8
9 Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Pioneer Investments and is as of July 31, 216. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Pioneer Investments, and are subject to change at any time. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities recommendations, or as an indication of trading on behalf of any Pioneer Investments product. There is no guarantee that market forecasts discussed will be realized or that these trends will continue. Indices are unmanaged and their returns assume reinvestment of dividends and do not reflect any fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index. This material does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation to sell any units of any investment fund or any service. Pioneer Investments is a trading name of the Pioneer Global Asset Management S.p.A. group of companies. Date of First Use: 8/25/16 Pioneer Investments 6 State Street, Boston, Massachusetts Pioneer Investments us.pioneerinvestments.com
Fourth Quarter Market Outlook. Kim Huebner, CFA Don Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA
Fourth Quarter 2017 Market Outlook Kim Huebner, CFA Don Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth Increasing, Spending Modest, Low Unemployment 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 GDP* Q3:
More informationTable 1: Economic Growth Measures
US Equities continued to advance in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 returning 5.2% for the quarter and 7.1% for the first half. Energy was by far the best performing sector in the quarter, returning
More informationMonthly Market Snapshot
ly Market Snapshot DECEMBER 2016 The ly Market Snapshot publication provides commentary on the global economy and the performance of financial markets Key insights Equity markets increased 1.8, rallying
More informationAshdon Investment Management Q ECONOMIC COMMENTARY
Ashdon Investment Management Q2 2016 ECONOMIC COMMENTARY June 2016 In the preparation of this presentation, Ashdon relied on data taken from sources it believes are creditable. As such, Ashdon believes
More informationMarket Watch. July Review Global economic outlook. Australia
Market Watch Latest monthly commentary from the Investment Markets Research team at BT. Global economic outlook Australia Available data for the June quarter is consistent with a moderation in GDP growth
More informationAPRIL 18, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
APRIL 18, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist The economic data reports were mixed, but generally consistent with moderate growth in the near term. Retail sales rose 1.6% in
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report. June 2014
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report June 1 Overview of the Economy In the U.S., the Federal Reserve s Beige Book report on the economy through late May indicated that
More informationMonthly Market Update August 2016
Monthly Market Update August 2016 Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, CPPT, Managing Director D. Scott Stitcher, CFA, Director Richard Pengelly, CFA, CTP, Director Khalid Yasin, CHP, Senior Managing Consultant
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationFresno County Employees' Retirement Association
Fresno County Employees' Retirement Association Investment Performance Review Period Ending: December 31, 2006 999 Third Avenue, Suite 3650 2321 Rosecrans Avenue, Suite 2250 Seattle, Washington 98104 El
More informationUSD Bull Market Rally Regains Momentum into 2017
PERSPECTIVES USD Bull Market Rally Regains Momentum into 2017 Executive Summary Paresh Upadhyaya Senior Vice President Director of Currencies, US The US dollar (USD) bull market entered its fourth consecutive
More informationQ Fixed Income Survey: Expectations for Rising Rates, Volatility and Emerging Markets
Q1 2018 Fixed Income Survey: Expectations for Rising Rates, Volatility and Emerging Markets April 4, 2018 by Adam Smears of Russell Investments The dichotomy between views from interest rate managers and
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 2017
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 17 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence indicators
More informationNational Economic Indicators. December 11, 2017
National Economic Indicators December 11, 17 Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Nov-9-17 8:3 Q3-17 Real Gross Domestic Product Nov-9-17 8:3 Q3-17 5
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 2018
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 1 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence continue to
More informationFebruary market performance. Index. Index. Global economies
March 2016 Global equity markets continued to correct through February but stage an early March recovery Oil prices staged a strong recovery from mid-february up 37% China economic data continued to consolidate
More informationISSUE 20 September 2016
ISSUE 20 September 2016 Q3 2016 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW & OUTLOOK Global Economic Themes In July, the IMF lowered its expectation for global growth in 2016 from 3.2% to 3.1% as Britain s exit from the European
More informationInterest Rate Forecast
Interest Rate Forecast Economics January Highlights Global growth firms Waiting for Trumponomics Bank of Canada on hold Recent growth momentum in the global economy continued in December and looks to extend
More informationNOVEMBER 30, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
NOVEMBER 30, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Fed Chairman Powell s comments to the Economic Club of New York were misinterpreted, but that s OK. Most likely, the stock
More informationOctober 2016 Market Update
Market Update (10/2016) Allianz Investment Management LLC October 2016 Market Update Key Points The lack of further easing measures from both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are causing
More informationJANUARY 4, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
JANUARY 4, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Volatility remained elevated in the first few days of 2019, reflecting renewed concerns about China and the ongoing uncertainties
More informationQ WestEnd Advisors. Macroeconomic Highlights. (888)
Q1 2017 WestEnd Advisors Macroeconomic Highlights www.westendadvisors.com info@westendadvisors.com (888) 500-9025 1 U.S. Economic Picture Prior to the November Election 3-Month Moving Average 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0
More informationBlackRock Enhanced Australian Bond Fund
2017 FUND UPDATE BlackRock Enhanced Australian Bond Fund Investment Performance (%) Fund Inception 1 M th 3 M ths CYTD 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs Inc BlackRock Enhanced Australian Bond Fund (Gross of Fees) 26-Mar-02
More informationEconomic & Financial Market Outlook. James W. Paulsen, Ph.D. - Wednesday
Economic & Financial Market Outlook James W. Paulsen, Ph.D. - Wednesday U.S. faces supply-side economic challenges!!! Annualized U.S. working age population growth by economic recovery Annualized U.S.
More informationCurrency Daily
Currency Daily 3-11-217 Market commentary Indian rupee has continued to trade firm for the third-straight session, gaining another 1paise to close at a fresh 2-month high of 64.31 against the U.S. dollar
More informationDECEMBER 7, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
DECEMBER 7, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Two key issues rattled stock market investors: trade policy and the yield curve. The weekend meeting between President Trump
More informationNATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
November 2017 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist THE PNC FINANCIAL
More informationGlobal Data Watch July 11 July 2016
Economic Research Global Data Watch 11-15 July 11 July 2016 The Week Ahead: BoE meeting and Chinese 2Q GDP UK: BoE to provide initial assessment of Brexit In its first monetary policy meeting (14 July)
More informationRetirement Funds. SEMIANNual REPORT
SEMIANNual REPORT November 30, 2017 T. Rowe Price Retirement Funds The funds invest in a diversified portfolio of T. Rowe Price mutual funds, offering a professionally managed, age-appropriate mix of stocks
More informationThe curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."
The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design." -Friedrich August von Hayek 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years S&P
More informationAsset Strategy Consultants. MARKET ENVIRONMENT Second Quarter 2016
MARKET ENVIRONMENT Second Quarter 2016 Market Environment: U.S. Economy The 2nd quarter was reasonably uneventful and markets were relatively placid until June 23rd, when British voters narrowly approved
More informationWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY
WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY Update on Risks and Opportunities in the Financial Markets October 2016 Weekly Market Commentary Week of October 10, 2016 HIGHLIGHTS We believe the earnings recession may have
More informationCash Management Portfolios
September 30, 2018 Portfolio Manager Commentary Cash Management Portfolios Chief Investment Officer Jim Palmer What market conditions had a direct impact on the bond market this quarter? Positive economic
More information2008 Economic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Presented by: Gareth Watson Warren Jestin Vincent Delisle December 7 Economic Outlook Warren Jestin The Global Economic Landscape is Changing Rapidly Gears Down Emerging Powerhouses
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Fourth Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions
More informationDecember Employment Report Review ACCELERATING WAGE INFLATION HELPS TO RESOLVE DISCONNECT BETWEEN FED AND MARKET ON JOBS
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY January 9 2017 JANUARY GAME PLAN John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick, CMT Senior Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY
More informationTarget Funds. SEMIANNual REPORT
SEMIANNual REPORT November 30, 2017 T. Rowe Price Target Funds The funds invest in a diversified portfolio of T. Rowe Price mutual funds, offering a professionally managed, age-appropriate mix of stocks
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationMonthly Market Snapshot
ly Market Snapshot SEPTEMBER 2016 The ly Market Snapshot publication provides commentary on the global economy and the performance of financial markets Key insights Equities markets in general, traded
More information2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY December 4 207 208 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EXPECT BETTER GROWTH WORLDWIDE John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA Asset Allocation
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationQuarterly market summary
Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2016 Economic overview Economies around the world appear to be relatively resilient, with data signalling that in many countries, economic activities are expanding
More informationECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION
ECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION Smith Shellnut Wilson is a registered investment adviser* specializing in managing investment portfolios for banks, individuals, corporations, foundations and
More informationZenith Monthly Market Report Zenith Monthly Market Report (30 June 2010)
Zenith Monthly Market Report (30 June 2010) Market Indicators Market Indicator End of Month Previous Month 1 Month Change 12 Months Ago 12 Month Change Interest Rates Overnight Cash 4.50 4.50 0.00% 3.00
More informationReal GDP Growth Rebounds 4.0% in 2Q14
Economic Analysis Real GDP Growth Rebounds 4.% in 2Q14 Kim Fraser Chase The advance estimate for 2Q14 GDP growth was slightly higher than expected, coming in at 4.% on a QoQ seasonally-adjusted annualized
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Third Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS Fourth Quarter 2016 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationNew information since the October 2011 Monetary Policy Report (3/11) 1
Meeting 14 March 2012 New information since the October 2011 Monetary Policy Report (3/11) 1 International economy According to preliminary figures, GDP for Norway s main trading partners fell by 0.2 percent
More informationWEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY
July 17, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The Federal Reserve (FED) might be
More informationAsset Strategy Consultants. MARKET ENVIRONMENT First Quarter 2017
MARKET ENVIRONMENT First Quarter 2017 Market Environment: Economy Economies in the U.S. and Europe continued to gain traction. Expectations for lower taxes, reduced regulation, and other pro-growth reforms
More informationDecember 2017 Investment Report
December 2017 Investment Report Highlights Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 228,000 in November. Employment continued its upward trend in professional and business services, manufacturing
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond Yields Range Bound
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond
More informationNational Economic Indicators. May 7, 2018
National Economic Indicators May 7, 18 Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-7-18 8:31 Q1-18 Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-7-18 8:31 Q1-18 5 Decomposition
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
More informationGlobal House View: Market Outlook
HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT September 29 Global House View: Market Outlook Contents 1688/HSB1395a Market performance Macro-economic Picture Market Views: high level asset allocation Market Views: Equity
More informationFourth Quarter Market Outlook. Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA
Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Outlook Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth: Strong 2018, But Expecting Slowdown in 2019 Growth & Jobs 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
More informationEconomic and Market Overview Fourth Quarter Economic and Market Overview
Economic and Market Overview 1 The following commentary summarizes prior financial market activity, and uses data obtained from public sources. This commentary is intended for one-on-one use with a client
More informationCalifornia Association of Joint Powers Authorities
California Association of Joint Powers Authorities Economic Update April 28, 2016 Scott Prickett, CTP EVP, Portfolio Strategist CHANDLER ASSET MANAGEMENT info@chandlerasset.com chandlerasset.com 800.317.4747
More informationJANUARY 11, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
JANUARY 11, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Fed Chairman Powell continued to signal that monetary policy will remain flexible and that muted inflation readings allow the
More informationMarket Month: January 2018
Market Month: January 2018 The Markets (as of market close January 31, 2018) Equities pulled back off of their record-setting gains at the end of January, but not enough to forestall a month of significant
More informationConsensus Forecast 2004 and 2005
Consensus Forecast 2004 and 2005 Eleventh Annual Auto Outlook Symposium Detroit, Michigan June 4, 2004 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Review of past
More informationCity of St. Louis. Review of Investment Portfolios First Quarter 2016
City of St. Louis Review of Investment Portfolios First Quarter 2016 77 West Port Plaza, Suite 220 St. Louis, MO 63146 (314)-878-5000 www.pfm.com First Quarter 2016 Summary Volatility ushered in the New
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Gering/Scottsbluff Economic Forum August 23, 216 George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions
More informationWeekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast
Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight Weekly FX Insight Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27 Market Review & Focus FX Analysis Weekly FX Recap 01 GBP/USD 03 USD/JPY 04 Weekly FX Focus 02 NZD/USD
More informationEconomic Update Adrienne C. Slack March 2017
Economic Update Adrienne C. Slack March 2017 The views expressed are mine, and not necessarily those of the Atlanta Fed or the Federal Reserve System. 2 The Fed s Dual Mandate The Fed is pursuing two objectives
More informationThe Economic Outlook: Downshift
The Economic Outlook: Downshift Karen Dynan Harvard University and Peterson Institute for International Economics Spring 2019 Global Economic Prospects Meeting Washington, DC April 2, 2019 The global outlook:
More informationMedium Risk Portfolio QUANTUM FUNDS PORTFOLIO REVIEW NOVEMBER DECEMBER 2014 OBJECTIVE AND STRATEGY COMPOSITION OF PORTFOLIO QUANTUM FUNDS
QUANTUM FUNDS ($500 INVESTMENT) Medium Risk Portfolio QUANTUM FUNDS PORTFOLIO REVIEW NOVEMBER OBJECTIVE AND STRATEGY The fund pursues the objective of long-term total returns combined with capital preservation.
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2007, growing at an annual rate of 3.4% Q/Q (+1.8% Y/Y), according to the GDP advance estimates
More information2019: A Mixed Picture for the Global Economy
Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS 2019: A Mixed Picture for the Global Economy January 2, 2019 Key takeaways» We believe U.S. economic growth
More informationInvestment Research Team Update
Economic & Market Commentary Market Update February 2015 February was a great month for global stocks! The S&P 500 ( large cap stocks) was up 5.7% and small stocks (Russell 2000) gained 5.9%. The jobs
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy February 2010
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy February 2010 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationThe Weekly Market View Aug
Commodity decline supports global equities despite growth concerns Global equity markets gained moderately last week despite the global growth concerns remained even as the decline in commodity prices
More informationBy John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.*
By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.* For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationCash Management Portfolios
September 30, 2017 Portfolio Manager Commentary Cash Management Portfolios Chief Investment Officer Jim Palmer What market conditions had a direct impact on the bond market this quarter? During the quarter,
More informationQ Fixed Income Survey: Expectations for rising rates, volatility, and emerging markets
MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2018 Fixed Income Survey: Expectations for rising rates, volatility, and emerging markets Adam Smears EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The dichotomy between views from interest rate managers and credit
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure
More informationMarket Outlook 6 12 June 2016
Highlight Treasury Division TMU 0 :(66) 202 TMU 02 :(66) 202 222 TMU 0 :(66) 202 Market Outlook 6 2 June 206 Last Week: The US dollar dropped against major currencies on Friday (/6) after the nonfarm payrolls
More informationUS Economy Update. Key Insights. Macro Pulse. October 2015
US Economy Update October 2015 MACRO REPORT Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Andrea Brasili Senior Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Also contributing Riccardo
More information2014 Annual Review & Outlook
2014 Annual Review & Outlook As we enter 2014, the current economic expansion is 4.5 years in duration, roughly the average life of U.S. economic expansions. There is every reason to believe it will continue,
More informationJanuary market performance. Equity Markets Price Indices Index
Global Central Banks continue to lower interest rates. The RBA cuts the cash rate by 25bp to 2.25% (February 2015). The ECB finally announces Quantitative Easing 60b per month. Oil prices declined again
More informationJ.P. Morgan Income Funds
Annual Report J.P. Morgan Income Funds February 28, 2017 JPMorgan Core Bond Fund JPMorgan Core Plus Bond Fund JPMorgan Government Bond Fund JPMorgan High Yield Fund JPMorgan Inflation Managed Bond Fund
More informationAsset Allocation Monthly
For professional investors Asset Allocation Monthly October 2015 Joost van Leenders, CFA Chief Economist, Multi Asset Solutions joost.vanleenders@bnpparibas.com +31 20 527 5126 Uncertainty about US monetary
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key
More informationThe Forex Market in March 2007
1 The Forex Market in March 2007 US Dollar : USD The US dollar in March continued to weaken from prior month compared with the euro and the yen with exchange rates averaging at US$ 1.3251 per euro and
More informationAustralian Dollar Outlook
Tuesday, 31 March 015 Australian Dollar Outlook Still Under Pressure We have revised our AUD forecasts for this year down slightly to reflect developments over recent months. We now expect the AUD to end
More informationAsset Allocation Monthly
For professional investors Asset Allocation Monthly December 2015 Joost van Leenders, CFA, Chief economist, Multi Asset Solutions joost.vanleenders@bnpparibas.com +31 20 527 5126 SUMMARY INVESTMENT CLIMATE
More informationEconomic Update: Fed Delay Bought Calm. But is it Calm Enough to Hike Rates? 2016 AAM Investment Conference Chris Low FTN Financial Chief Economist
Economic Update: Fed Delay Bought Calm. But is it Calm Enough to Hike Rates? May 2016 2016 AAM Investment Conference Chris Low FTN Financial Chief Economist Executive Summary 1 FOMC recognizes global inflation
More informationINVESTMENT OUTLOOK. August 2017
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK August 2017 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK AUGUST 2017 MACRO-ECONOMICS AND CURRENCIES Developed and Emerging Markets A series of comments from major central banks during the month, reminded investors
More informationNovember 2017 Investment Report
November 2017 Investment Report Highlights The U.S. economy continued to strengthen as hiring rebounded following the hurricanes in Florida and Texas. Employers added 261,000 jobs in October, the most
More informationGlobal Fixed Income Weekly
Global Fixed Income Weekly Executive Summary US nonfarm payroll employment rose by 103,000 in March, falling short of consensus expectations by 82,000; the undershoot is likely due to weather effects and
More informationFixed income market update. March BMO Fixed Income Brickell Bay Dr. Suite 2100 Miami, Florida bmogam.
Fixed income market update March 218 BMO Fixed Income 11 Brickell Bay Dr. Suite 21 Miami, Florida 33131 bmogam.com/usfixedincome Fixed income market update For the month ended February 28, 218, the Bloomberg
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist.
January 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Another Fed Rate Hike in December, Inflation Remains
More informationKEY ECONOMIC AND MARKET INDICATORS
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Latest Report Current Report Previous Report 2016 ECONOMIC GROWTH GDP (QoQ) Q3 3.3% 3.0% 2.0% EMPLOYMENT Non-farm Payrolls (000s) Nov 228 244 2,242 Private Payrolls (000s) Nov 221
More informationMonthly Economic Indicators And Charts
Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts December 17 Richard F. Moody- Chief Economist Steve Pfitzer Investor Relations Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources believed
More informationMonthly Market Snapshot
ly Market Snapshot OCTOBER 2016 The ly Market Snapshot publication provides commentary on the global economy and the performance of financial markets Key insights Domestic and international equities (unhedged)
More informationShort exposure to US equities
Portfolio performance The All Asset Fund aims to serve as a differentiated asset allocation strategy. It focuses on third pillar assets in seeking three key outcomes: 1) long-term real return consistent
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
February 26, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Federal Reserve officials see the economic growth and the acceleration of inflation as a good signal to continue to raise interest rate gradually over
More informationCurrencies Daily Report
Currencies Daily Report www.karvycurrency.com Friday 02 Jun 2017 Market Overview Asian shares were mostly higher today with attention on U.S. jobs data later in the day. Overnight, U.S. stocks made a winning
More informationUS Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time
US Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time Economic research note December 17, 2015 The US Federal Reserve (the Fed) has, finally and unanimously, started the monetary policy normalization process by
More information