A summary of regional economic indicators for the state of Kansas

Transcription

1 THE ECONOMIC DATABOOK A summary of regional economic indicators for the state of FEBRUARY 26, 218 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of KANSAS CITY SUMMARY OF CURRENT KANSAS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS In, the unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in December, and total payroll employment grew.4 percent compared to the previous year. Employment growth was mixed across industries, with the strongest gains in the mining and logging and construction sectors. nominal personal income grew.2 percent in the third quarter of 217 compared to the previous year, with workplace earnings down.9 percent. Home prices increased 4.5 percent in the third quarter of 217 compared to a year ago, while single-family and multifamily permits recorded a 17.4 and percent change, respectively, in 217. In November 217, crude oil production was down 2.3 percent over last year. exports were 1.9 percent higher in 217 compared to 216. This databook provides current economic indicators to help monitor trends and allow comparison of past information. These indicators include: employment; employment by industry; county and state unemployment; personal income; home prices; housing indicators; manufacturing activity; oil, gas and coal production; and exports. These indicators can be found on the following pages. Jason Brown is an Assistant Vice President, Economist, and Regional Executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of City. In this role, Brown is the Federal Reserve Bank of City s regional economist in and Missouri. He is responsible for briefing the City Fed s President on the economy in these states and the Tenth District. 1

2 REGIONAL LABOR MARKET INDICATORS December 217 Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted December 217 Unemployment Rate 4.1% 3.4% Unemployment Rate, Last Year 4.7% 4.3% 12% 1% 8% Unemployment Rates, Seasonally Adjusted 1 Over 6% 5 to 6% 4 to 5% 3 to 4% Under 3% 6% 4% 2% % Note: Gray bars indicate recession. December 217 Payroll Employment Seasonally Adjusted, Year-over-Year Percent Change Payroll Employment Seasonally Adjusted December 217 Jobs (Thousands ) 147,38. 1,416.8 Change from Last Year 1.4%.4% Over 3% 2 to 3% 1 to 2% to 1% Under % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% Payroll Employment Seasonally Adjusted, Year-over-Year Percent Change -8% Note: Gray bars indicate recession. 1 2

3 December 217 Unemployment Rates & Civilian Labor Force Seasonally Adjusted COUNTY UNEMPLOYMENT Over 5% 4 to 5% 3 to 4% 2 to 3% Under 2% 4.1% 16, Reno , Elk Linn Dickinson Coffey Barton Neosho Cloud Wyandotte Graham Geary Harvey Atchison Clay Montgomery Miami Bourbon Doniphan Wilson Franklin Labette Sumner Chautauqua Butler Allen Shawnee Crawford Morton Greenwood Lyon Woodson Kingman Rooks Seward Sedgwick Harper Anderson Jefferson Osage Russell Cherokee Rice Trego Cowley Leavenworth Lane Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics Percent Unemployed Labor Force (Thousands ) Percent Unemployed Labor Force (Thousands ) 3

4 December 217 Unemployment Rates & Civilian Labor Force COUNTY UNEMPLOYMENT Percent Unemployed Labor Force (Thousands ) Percent Unemployed Labor Force (Thousands ) 47 Pratt Ford Marion Wallace Pawnee Sherman Brown Ellis Ellsworth Hodgeman Rush McPherson Stafford Finney Wabaunsee Stanton Edwards Republic Comanche Lincoln Decatur Chase Douglas Wichita Grant Rawlins Saline Mitchell Barber Osborne Johnson Gove Jackson Sheridan Phillips Logan Smith Norton Stevens Cheyenne Marshall Meade Clark Kiowa Pottawatomie Haskell Ottawa Kearny Washington Nemaha Morris Greeley Riley Hamilton Thomas Scott Jewell Gray Ness Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 4

5 SELECTED EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS 18 Payroll Employment Ten-Year Index of Growth Payroll Employment Seasonally Adjusted Dec '7 Dec '9 Dec '11 Dec '13 Dec '15 Dec '17 December 217 Jobs (Thousands ) 147,61. 1,416.8 Change from Last Year 2, (Thousands) Share of U.S. Employment 1.% 11 Labor Force Dynamics Ten-Year Index of Growth, Seasonally Adjusted Employed (Household Survey) Unemployed Dec '7 Dec '9 Dec '11 Dec '13 Dec '15 Dec ' Dec '7 Dec '9 Dec '11 Dec '13 Dec '15 Dec '17 16 Labor Force Unemployment Insurance Claims Dec '7 Dec '9 Dec '11 Dec '13 Dec '15 Dec '17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Department of Labor/Haver Analytics Dec '7 Dec '9 Dec '11 Dec '13 Dec '15 Dec '17 5

6 SELECTED EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS Payroll Employment by Industry Seasonally Adjusted December 217 Percent Change Year-over-Year Mining & Logging Construction Prof. & Business Services Healthcare & Social Assist. Other Services Leisure & Hospitality Wholesale Trade Financial Activities State Government Local Government Trans. & Warehousing Manufacturing Retail Trade Federal Government Educational Services Information -.1% -.3% -1.% -1.% -1.6% -2.6% -4.9% 9.1% 4.9% 2.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.%.8%.3%.% Ten-Year Index of Growth 115 Construction Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec '17 Share of Jobs 4.8% 4.5% 15 Manufacturing 13 Mining & Logging Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec '17 Share of Jobs 1 8.5% 7.5% 11.2% 4 Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec '17.5% 15 Retail Trade 15 Wholesale Trade Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec ' % 95 4.% 1.3% 9 Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec '17 4.3% 11 Utilities 12 Transportation & Warehousing Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec ' % 1 3.5%.5% 9 Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec '17 3.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 6

7 SELECTED EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS Payroll Employment by Industry Ten-Year Index of Growth, Seasonally Adjusted 135 Information 14 Professional & Business Services Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec '17 Share of Jobs 12 Share of Jobs 1.9% 1 14.% 1.4% 8 Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec ' % 12 Financial Activities 13 Healthcare & Social Assistance Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec ' % % 6.1% 85 Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec ' % 13 Private Educational Services 11 Other Services Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec ' % 9 3.9% 1.3% 8 Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec '17 3.6% 12 Leisure & Hospitality 14 Federal Government Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec ' % 1 1.9% 9.1% 8 Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec '17 1.8% 15 State Government 13 Local Government Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec ' % % 3.6% 95 Dec '7 Dec '12 Dec ' % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 7

8 WAGE & INCOME INDICATORS 1% Nominal Personal Income Growth Contributions to Percent Change Year-over-Year, Seasonally Adjusted 1% 5% 5% %.2% % -5% '12Q3 '13Q3 '14Q3 '15Q3 '16Q3 '17Q3 Contributions to Social Insurance Transfer Payments Dividends, Interest & Rent Residence Adjustment Earnings by Place of Work Total Personal Income 217Q3 Percent Change Year-over-Year Share of Personal Income Total Personal Income 2.6%.2% Earnings by Place of Work 2.5% -.9% 71.2% 71.2% Social Insurance Contributions* -3.8% -.6% -7.9% -8.% Residence Adjustment 19.% 1.2% Dividends, Interest & Rent 3.2% 2.6% 19.3% 19.5% Transfer Payments 2.9% 1.4% 17.4% 16.1% -5% *Subtracted from personal income. $27 $26 $25 Real Average Hourly Wage Current Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted $27 $26 $25 December 217 Average Hourly Wage $26.67 $23.59 $24 $23 $22 $24 $23 $22 Real Change from Last Month.5% 1.2% Last Year.6%.2% $21 $21 $2 $2 Dec '12 Dec '13 Dec '14 Dec '15 Dec '16 Dec '17 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 8

9 SELECTED HOUSING INDICATORS FHFA Purchase-Only Home Price Index Ten-Year Index of Growth, Seasonally Adjusted % 12% Rental Vacancy Rates 16% 12% 1 1 8% 8% '7Q3 '9Q3 '11Q3 '13Q3 '15Q3 '17Q3 4% 4% % % '7Q3 '9Q3 '11Q3 '13Q3 '15Q3 '17Q3 Housing Permits Ten-Year Index of Growth, Seasonally Adjusted Summary Statistics Prices (217Q3)* 6.5% 4.5% Vacancy Rates (217Q3) 7.5% 12.2% Permits (Year-to-Date )* Single Family 9.6% 17.4% Multifamily.5% -31.2% Dec '7 Dec '9 Dec '11 Dec '13 Dec '15 Dec '17 *Percent change year-over-year. Top 1 Counties for Permit Activity Year-to-Date through December Johnson Sedgwick Wyandotte Leavenworth Shawnee Douglas Pottawatomie Riley Miami Butler 217 Single Family Multifamily 216, Year-to-Date 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, 3,5 4, Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) & Census Bureau/Haver Analytics 9

10 SELECTED ENERGY INDICATORS Energy Activity Oil & Gas Rig Counts 4 Number of Active Drilling Rigs Jan '8 Jan '1 Jan '12 Jan '14 Jan '16 Jan '18 January 218 Rig Count 937 Change from Last Month 7 Last Year 254 Share of U.S. Activity.% 5, 4, 3, 2, Crude Oil Production Thousand Barrels per Month, Seasonally Adjusted 5, 4, 3, 2, November 217 Production 33,331 2,962 Change from Last Month 3.6% 2.7% Last Year 13.1% -2.3% 1, 1, Share of U.S. Activity 1.% Nov '7 Nov '9 Nov '11 Nov '13 Nov '15 Nov ' Coal Production Thousand Short Tons, Seasonally Adjusted Jan '8 Jan '1 Jan '12 Jan '14 Jan '16 Jan ' January 218 Production 62,41 Change from Last Month -1.5% N/A Last Year -7.4% N/A Share of U.S. Activity.% Source: Baker Hughes & Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration/Haver Analytics 1

11 Global Exports Ten-Year Index of Growth, Seasonally Adjusted Q4 Exports (Millions) $398,78.4 $2,881.2 Change from SELECTED TRADE INDICATORS Last Quarter 3.8% 9.3% Last Year (year-to-date ) 6.4% 1.9% 1 1 Share of U.S. Activity.7% 6 6 '7Q4 '9Q4 '11Q4 '13Q4 '15Q4 '17Q4 216 Exports as a Percent of GDP 7.8% 6.8% Exports Year-to-Date through 217Q4 Percent Change Year-over-Year Over 1% 5 to 1% 25 to 5% to 25% -25 to % Below -25% Not Applicable Top Markets Share Top Exports Share 1 Canada 22.2% 1 Transportation Equip. 26.2% 2 Mexico Food China* Agriculture & Livestock Japan Machinery (Except Electrical) Germany Chemicals & Rare Earth Metals United Kingdom Computers & Electronics South Korea Special Class Provisions France Plastics & Rubber Products Singapore Electronic Equip. & Appliances Nigeria Fabricated Metal Products 2.3 *China includes Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Macao. Source: Census Bureau, WISERTrade & Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 11

12 NOTES Pages 2-4 : County unemployment rates typically lag state data releases by one month. Gray bars show recessionary periods as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The "official" and most commonly reported unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. These data are reported from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey, or commonly called the "Household" survey. Page 2 and 5 : Nonfarm employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey are commonly called "Payroll" employment data. Estimates from this survey are revised throughout the year and a major revision or "benchmark" of the data occurs in March of each year. "Payroll" and "Household" surveys are released monthly, providing the most current estimates of employment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Because methodologies differ between surveys, employment estimates also differ. For more information, visit: Initial claims show monthly applications for initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits. Pages 6 and 7 : Payroll employment by industry is shown for each of the major two-digit North American Industrial Classification System industries. Page 8 : Personal income provides a measure of all income received by residents of a given geographic area. Data shown are in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation). Transfer payments include social benefits such as unemployment insurance, Social Security, and Medicaid. Contributions to social insurance are subtracted from personal income. These contributions include taxes paid by businesses and employees that support social insurance programs such as unemployment insurance, Social Security, and Medicaid. The residence adjustment adds income received outside of a recipient's state of residence and makes a corresponding subtraction from the area where this income was earned or received. Real average hourly wages are calculated as total earnings divided by total employment for a given geographic area. Data are adjusted for inflation using the consumer price index for all urban areas (CPI-U) and are indexed to the most current month of data. Data Revisions Most data are revised periodically to correct for errors and incorporate additional information as it becomes available. Data shown in this report are subject to change. Seasonal Adjustments Most data are seasonally adjusted to remove variance caused by seasonal fluctuations in economic activity. Data in this report show the seasonal adjustments of data publishers where available. In other cases, Census X- 12 adjustments were applied. Regional Economic Analysis Sign up to receive The Economic Databook and other publications each month via using the link below: Additional Resources Available Agricultural Surveys Manufacturing Survey Energy Survey Regional Economic Analysis Speeches Visit: Banker Resources Economic Indicators Economic Research Educational Tools Page 9 : Home price indices estimate regional growth in home values based on repeat sales data for detached single family residential properties. Monthly single and multifamily housing permits data are not revised, and therefore, may not sum to published year-end totals. Page 1 : The active rig count is the number of rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. Rig counts provide an indicator of new drilling activity and potential for expanded crude oil or natural gas production. Coal production is shown as production during a given month. Page 11 : Exports measure the total physical movement of a given product from the to a foreign country. 12