A summary of regional economic indicators for the state of Missouri. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of KANSAS CITY

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1 THE ECONOMIC DATABOOK A summary of regional economic indicators for the state of JULY 24, 2017 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of KANSAS CITY SUMMARY OF CURRENT MISSOURI ECONOMIC CONDITIONS In, the unemployment rate was 3.8 percent in June, and total payroll employment grew 1.6 percent compared to the previous year. Employment growth was broad-based across industries, with the strongest gains in the mining and logging and professional and business services sectors. nominal personal income grew 3.5 percent in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the previous year, with workplace earnings up 3.9 percent. Home prices increased 3.9 percent in the first quarter of 2017 compared to a year ago, while single-family and multifamily permits recorded a and percent change, respectively, year-to-date through May exports were 12.1 percent higher in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the same period last year. This databook provides current economic indicators to help monitor trends and allow comparison of past information. These indicators include: employment; employment by industry; county and state unemployment; personal income; home prices; housing indicators; manufacturing activity; and exports. These indicators can be found on the following pages. Jason Brown is a Senior Economist and Regional Executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. In this role, Brown is the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City s regional economist in Kansas and. He is responsible for briefing the Kansas City Fed s President on the economy in these states and the Tenth District. 1

2 REGIONAL LABOR MARKET INDICATORS June 2017 Unemployment Rates Unemployment Rates June 2017 Unemployment Rate 4.4% 3.8% Unemployment Rate, Last Year 4.9% 4.7% 12% 10% 8% Unemployment Rates, 1 Over 6% 5 to 6% 4 to 5% 3 to 4% Under 3% 6% 4% 2% 0% Note: Gray bars indicate recession. 0 June 2017 Payroll Employment, Year-over-Year Percent Change Payroll Employment June 2017 Jobs (Thousands ) 146, ,886.3 Change from Last Year 1.6% 1.6% Over 3% 2 to 3% 1 to 2% 0 to 1% Under 0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Payroll Employment, Year-over-Year Percent Change -8% Note: Gray bars indicate recession

3 May 2017 Unemployment Rates & Civilian Labor Force COUNTY UNEMPLOYMENT Over 6% 5 to 6% 4 to 5% 3 to 4% Under 3% Percent Unemployed Labor Force (Thousands ) Percent Unemployed Labor Force (Thousands ) 4.3% 159, Morgan , Texas Pemiscot Benton Ozark Camden New Madrid Mississippi Carter Reynolds Dunklin Hickory Taney Miller Shannon Dallas Iron Douglas Stone Crawford Ripley Butler Howell Pulaski Clark Maries Oregon Schuyler Stoddard Randolph Wayne Bates Linn Wright Washington St. Francois St. Clair Scott Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 3

4 May 2017 Unemployment Rates & Civilian Labor Force COUNTY UNEMPLOYMENT Percent Unemployed Labor Force (Thousands ) 39 Laclede Shelby Dent Newton Bollinger Cape Girardeau Sullivan Moniteau Marion Warren St. Louis (City) Atchison Polk Barry Barton Lawrence Adair Dade Johnson St. Louis Henry Chariton Jackson Harrison Pettis Macon Monroe Caldwell Carroll Lafayette Vernon Clinton Putnam Callaway Cedar Cass Lincoln Audrain Madison Jasper Franklin Ralls Howard Daviess Webster Holt Phelps Andrew McDonald Osage Nodaway Scotland Knox Livingston DeKalb Clay Ray Greene Pike Platte Jefferson Christian Gasconade Mercer Lewis St. Charles Cooper Cole Grundy Worth Montgomery Gentry Saline Perry Buchanan Boone Ste. Genevieve Percent Unemployed Labor Force (Thousands ) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 4

5 SELECTED EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS 108 Payroll Employment Ten-Year Index of Growth Payroll Employment Jun '07 Jun '09 Jun '11 Jun '13 Jun '15 Jun '17 Jobs (Thousands ) 146, ,886.3 Change from Last Year 2, (Thousands) June 2017 Share of U.S. Employment 2.0% 108 Labor Force Dynamics Ten-Year Index of Growth, Employed (Household Survey) Unemployed Jun '07 Jun '09 Jun '11 Jun '13 Jun '15 Jun ' Jun '07 Jun '09 Jun '11 Jun '13 Jun '15 Jun ' Labor Force Unemployment Insurance Claims Jun '07 Jun '09 Jun '11 Jun '13 Jun '15 Jun ' Jun '07 Jun '09 Jun '11 Jun '13 Jun '15 Jun '17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Department of Labor/Haver Analytics 5

6 SELECTED EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS Payroll Employment by Industry Mining & Logging Prof. & Business Services Leisure & Hospitality Financial Activities Trans. & Warehousing Retail Trade Educational Services Manufacturing Healthcare & Social Assist. Federal Government Other Services Wholesale Trade Local Government State Government Construction Information June 2017 Percent Change Year-over-Year -2.5% -2.6% -5.1% 7.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% 2.5% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 115 Ten-Year Index of Growth 85 Construction 55 Share of Jobs 4.7% 4.1% Manufacturing 160 Mining & Logging Share of Jobs % 0.5% 9.3% % Retail Trade Wholesale Trade % 4.0% % % Utilities 120 Transportation & Warehousing % 3.5% 0.4% % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 6

7 SELECTED EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS Payroll Employment by Industry Ten-Year Index of Growth, Information Professional & Business Services Share of Jobs 120 Share of Jobs 1.9% 14.1% 1.8% 13.5% Financial Activities 140 Healthcare & Social Assistance % 13.3% 6.0% 14.1% 140 Private Educational Services Other Services % 3.9% % 4.1% 130 Leisure & Hospitality 130 Federal Government % 1.9% 10.8% 1.9% State Government Local Government % 9.9% % % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 7

8 WAGE & INCOME INDICATORS 10% Nominal Personal Income Growth Contributions to Percent Change Year-over-Year, 10% 5% 3.5% 5% 0% 0% -5% '12Q1 '13Q1 '14Q1 '15Q1 '16Q1 '17Q1 Contributions to Social Insurance Transfer Payments Dividends, Interest & Rent Residence Adjustment Earnings by Place of Work Total Personal Income 2017Q1 Percent Change Year-over-Year Total Personal Income 3.7% 3.5% Share of Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work 3.8% 3.9% 71.8% 73.0% Social Insurance Contributions* -4.2% -4.4% -7.8% -8.2% Residence Adjustment 5.3% -2.2% Dividends, Interest & Rent 3.6% 2.4% 18.6% 17.3% Transfer Payments 3.9% 3.6% 17.5% 20.2% -5% *Subtracted from personal income. $27 $26 $25 Real Average Hourly Wage Current Dollars, $27 $26 $25 June 2017 Average Hourly Wage $26.23 $23.43 $24 $23 $22 $21 $20 $20 Jun '12 Jun '13 Jun '14 Jun '15 Jun '16 Jun '17 $24 $23 $22 $21 Real Change from Last Month 0.1% -0.5% Last Year 0.8% 4.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 8

9 SELECTED HOUSING INDICATORS 115 FHFA Purchase-Only Home Price Index Ten-Year Index of Growth, % Rental Vacancy Rates 14% 10% 10% '07Q1 '09Q1 '11Q1 '13Q1 '15Q1 '17Q1 6% 6% 2% 2% '07Q1 '09Q1 '11Q1 '13Q1 '15Q1 '17Q Housing Permits Ten-Year Index of Growth, Summary Statistics Prices (2017Q1)* 6.0% 3.9% Vacancy Rates (2017Q1) 7.0% 10.9% Permits (Year-to-Date )* Single Family 10.5% -5.0% Multifamily -0.8% -31.8% 0 0 May '07 May '09 May '11 May '13 May '15 May '17 *Percent change year-over-year. Top 10 Counties for Permit Activity Year-to-Date through May Jackson St. Charles St. Louis Boone Jefferson Greene St. Louis (City) Cass Franklin Clay 2017 Single Family Multifamily 2016, Year-to-Date ,000 1,500 2,000 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) & Census Bureau/Haver Analytics 9

10 220 Global Exports Ten-Year Index of Growth, Q1 Exports (Millions) $383,8.7 $3,727.7 Change from SELECTED TRADE INDICATORS Last Quarter 3.6% 13.6% Last Year (year-to-date ) 7.3% 12.1% Share of U.S. Activity 1.0% '07Q1 '09Q1 '11Q1 '13Q1 '15Q1 '17Q Exports as a Percent of GDP 7.8% 4.6% Exports Year-to-Date through 2017Q1 Percent Change Year-over-Year Over % 50 to % 25 to 50% 0 to 25% -25 to 0% Below -25% Not Applicable Top Markets Share Top Exports Share 1 Canada 37.9% 1 Transportation Equip. 25.7% 2 Mexico Chemicals & Rare Earth Metals China* Food Belgium Machinery (Except Electrical) Japan Electronic Equip. & Appliances Germany Computers & Electronics South Korea Fabricated Metal Products Singapore Agriculture & Livestock United Kingdom Primary Metals Australia Plastics & Rubber Products 2.3 *China includes Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Macao. Source: Census Bureau, WISERTrade & Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 10

11 NOTES Pages 2-4 : County unemployment rates typically lag state data releases by one month. Gray bars show recessionary periods as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The "official" and most commonly reported unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. These data are reported from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey, or commonly called the "Household" survey. Page 5 : Nonfarm employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey are commonly called "Payroll" employment data. Estimates from this survey are revised throughout the year and a major revision or "benchmark" of the data occurs in March of each year. "Payroll" and "Household" surveys are released monthly, providing the most current estimates of employment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Because methodologies differ between surveys, employment estimates also differ. For more information, visit: Initial claims show monthly applications for initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits. Pages 6 and 7 : Payroll employment by industry is shown for each of the major two-digit North American Industrial Classification System industries. Page 8 : Personal income provides a measure of all income received by residents of a given geographic area. Data shown are in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation). Transfer payments include social benefits such as unemployment insurance, Social Security, and Medicaid. Contributions to social insurance are subtracted from personal income. These contributions include taxes paid by businesses and employees that support social insurance programs such as unemployment insurance, Social Security, and Medicaid. The residence adjustment adds income received outside of a recipient's state of residence and makes a corresponding subtraction from the area where this income was earned or received. Real average hourly wages are calculated as total earnings divided by total employment for a given geographic area. Data are adjusted for inflation using the consumer price index for all urban areas (CPI-U) and are indexed to the most current month of data. Data Revisions Most data are revised periodically to correct for errors and incorporate additional information as it becomes available. Data shown in this report are subject to change. Seasonal Adjustments Most data are seasonally adjusted to remove variance caused by seasonal fluctuations in economic activity. Data in this report show the seasonal adjustments of data publishers where available. In other cases, Census X- 12 adjustments were applied. Regional Economic Analysis Sign up to receive The Economic Databook and other publications each month via using the link below: Additional Resources Available Agricultural Surveys Manufacturing Survey Energy Survey Regional Economic Analysis Speeches Visit: Banker Resources Economic Indicators Economic Research Educational Tools Page 9 : Home price indices estimate regional growth in home values based on repeat sales data for detached single family residential properties. Monthly single and multifamily housing permits data are not revised and therefore may not sum to published year-end totals. Page 10 : Exports measure the total physical movement of a given product from the to a foreign country. 11