Implications of the Financial Crisis for Housing and Community Development

Transcription

1 Implications of the Financial Crisis for Housing and Community Development The Center for Community Studies Vanderbilt University May 14, 2009 Dan Immergluck Associate Professor City & Regional Planning Program Georgia Tech Visiting Scholar Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta* * All opinions and conclusions are my own, and do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Federal Reserve System, or any affiliated staff.

2 National foreclosure/foreclosed property trends An outsider looking in Nashville & Tennessee vs. other markets Foreclosures vs. mortgage delinquency and distress Recent trends in mortgage originations Some speculation on implications of the crisis for housing and community development

3 Subprime Foreclosed Properties in U.S.* February Properties Number of 1-4 Unit REO 125, ,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 0 LPS Subprime REO LPS Subprime REO Exits LPS Subprime REO Entrants Data source: LPS Applied Analytics * Not adjusted to account for full market

4 Prime/Near-Prime Foreclosed Properties in U.S.* February O Properties Number of 1-4 Unit RE 300, , , , , , , , ,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 0 LPS Prime/Near- Prime REO LPS Prime/Near- Prime REO Exits Data source: LPS Applied Analytics * Not adjusted to account for full market

5 Three Basic Types of Foreclosure Markets Type 1 -- Low Initial REO Density & Relatively Stable Home Values Type 2 -- High Initial REO Density Type 3 -- Low Initial REO Density and Large Declines in Home Values Data sources: Lender Processing Services Inc. (LPS) Applied Analytics, American Community Survey 2006

6 Nashville vs. Other Metros REO per 10,000 Mortgageable Properties, August 2008 Rank Among 358 MSAs Rank Among Top 50 MSAs Nashville MSA Memphis MSA Knoxville MSA N/A Merced, CA MSA N/A Riverside, CA MSA Data sources: Lender Processing Services Inc. (LPS) Applied Analytics, American Community Survey 2006

7 Density of Foreclosed Properties, November 2008 Nashville and Memphis Metros

8 Compared to Many Large Metros, Housing Prices in Tennessee Metros have Been Relatively Stable 240 FHFA Home Price In ndex versus (2000 HPI =100) Metropolitan Statistical Area Phoenix Las Vegas Detroit Memphis Chatanooga Knoxville Nashville Data source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index

9 Q to Q Change in Zillow Home Price Index From: Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, First Quarter 2009,

10 Not Just the Bubble Markets: Negative Equity is a Significant Problem in Most Metros, Especially for Those Buying During the Boom Years Zillow Estimates, First Quarter 2009 Percent All Houses with Negative Equity (Q1 2009) Percent of 2007 Buyers with Negative Equity (Q1 2009) Nashville MSA 17% 35% Las Vegas MSA 67% 83% Riverside MSA 43% 86% Atlanta MSA 22% 47% Median of MSAs 21% 52% Nashville Rank 77 / / 132 From. Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, First Quarter 2009,

11 Foreclosure versus Borrower Distress Stewart Robertson Macon Clay Pickett Montgomery Sumner Claiborne Hancock Scott Campbell Hawkins Obion Trousdale Lake Henry Jackson Overton Fentress Weakley Houston Cheatham Smith Union Grainger Hamblen Dickson Davidson Wilson Greene Dyer Benton Putnam Morgan Anderson Gibson Humphreys Jefferson Carroll DeKalb Knox White Cumberland Williamson Cocke Crockett Roane Hickman Rutherford Lauderdale Cannon White Sevier Perry Warren Blount Haywood Madison Henderson Van Buren Loudon Decatur Maury Bledsoe Rhea LoudonLoudon Tipton Lewis Marshall Bedford Coffee Meigs Chester McMinn Monroe Grundy Sequatchie Moore Wayne Shelby Fayette Hardeman McNairy Hardin Lawrence Giles Lincoln Franklin Hamilton Marion Bradley Polk Sullivan Johnson Washington Carter Unicoi Percent of Mortgages Delinquent or in Foreclosure March % - 6% 6% - 9% 9% - 11% 11% - 14% 14% - 20% Data source: LPS Applied Analytics

12 Substantial Increases in Borrower Distress in Most Tennessee Counties 8% 4% 8% Change in Share of Mortgages Delinquent or in Foreclosure, 9/2007 to 3/ % Decline 37% 31% Increase of 0-10% Increase of 10-25% Increase of 25-50% Increase of 50-75% Greater than 75% Increase Data source: LPS Applied Analytics

13 Mortgage Markets Tighten; Housing Markets Slow 8,000 Estimates of First-Lien Home Purchase Loans in Tennessee Numbe r of Home Purc chase Loans (F First-Lien) in Month 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Subprime FHA/VA/Govt Prime/Near-Prime, w/pmi Prime/Near-Prime, no PMI Data sources: Lender Processing Services Inc. (LPS) Applied Analytics; Mortgage Bankers National Delinquency Survey

14 The Need for Affordable Rental Housing 75 Homeownership Rate 74 Homeow wnership Rat te (%) Tennessee US U.S Q Data source: U.S. Current Population Survey

15 Who Will Provide the Financing? From: National Multifamily Housing Council The GSE s Role in Multifamily Finance. March.