New Mexico Continues to Struggle: Las Cruces doing better
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1 New Mexico Continues to Struggle: Las Cruces doing better Christopher A. Erickson, Ph.D. Department of Economics and International Business College of Business New Mexico State University
2 Economic Recovery Business Cycles associated with financial crisis, on average, last twice as long as typical cycles Recovery from a financial crisis is also slow, as we are experiencing National recovery right on track
3 National Recovery Latest quarter saw a small raise in Real GDP of.1% Probably reflects harsh winter Employment was up 288,000 in April Unemployment was 6.3% Industrial production is up 2.5% compared to pre-recession
4 National Recovery There remains considerable slack in the economy Capacity utilization is a tepid 79.2 Total employment is still slightly below previous peak Excess reserves are $2.6 trillion
5 NM Recovery Recovery is shakier in NM Albuquerque is seeing problems in particular Las Cruces never really suffered from the deep recession experienced elsewhere Thanks to federal employment
6 Employment since the Recession December 2007 = Nov 2007 Apr 2008 Sep 2008 Feb 2009 Jul 2009 Dec 2009 May 2010 Oct 2010 United States New Mexico Albuqurque Las Cruces Mar 2011 Aug 2011 Jan 2012 Jun 2012 Nov 2012 Apr 2013 Sep 2013 Feb 2014
7 Employment Growth Since the Recession Las Cruces 1.6% -7.0% Albuqurque -4.6% New Mexico United States -0.3% -8.0% -7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
8 Employment Growth Last Twelve Months April 2013 to April 2014 Las Cruces 0.6% -0.7% Albuqurque New Mexico -0.2% United States 1.7% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
9 Construction and Real Estate Construction and real estate continues a weak sector The bursting of the housing bubble, of course, is what caused the recession Recovery is slow in coming
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11 20.0% Changes in Housing Prices Year-over-Year 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% LC NM USA
12 Decline in Housing Prices Since 2007 Q1-12.4% USA -11.8% NM -17.1% LC -18.0% -16.0% -14.0% -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0%
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15 United States: 1 in 1121
16 New Mexico: 1 in 1668
17 Dona Ana: 1 in 1852
18 Las Cruces 1 in 1458
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23 Current New Mexico Regular Wage: $7.50 Minimum wage Tipped Wage: $2.13, but if tips fall short of the minimum wage, the employer has to make up the difference National Regular Wage: $7.25 Tipped Wage: $2.13
24 Minimum Wage Comunidades en Accion y de Fe (CAFé) is proposing an increase in the minimum wage within the borders of Las Cruces As of now, it would not apply to the county
25 Proposal Regular Wage: $10.10 effective Jan 1, 2017 Phase in: $8.40 Jan 1, 2015; $9.20 Jan 1, 2016 Indexed to inflation after starting Jan Tipped Wage: $6.06 effective Jan 1, 2017 Phase in: $3.36 Jan 1, 2015; $4.60 Jan 1, 2016 Indexed to inflation after starting Jan
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27 Likely impact of proposed minimum wage Employment effect likely will be small High: 2% less growth over five years Low: No effect Small businesses that can t afford higher wages will lose market share Large business (Target, Walmart) will gain market share
28 Likely impact of proposed minimum wage Impact of minimum wage on the standard of living of the working poor also likely to be small Working poor will receive less in SNAP, EITC, etc. Reduced subsidy to businesses
29 Graduation Rate Public Schools Only 63% of high school students graduated in NM in 2011 NM ranked 3 rd from the bottom ahead only of Nevada (62%) and DC (59%) About in the middle for English learners; third from the bottom for economically disadvantaged
30 Public Schools 4-Year Graduation Rates 2012 Cohort Statewide 70.3% of high school students graduated in 4 years LCPS 66.8% of high school students graduated in 4 years
31 Public Schools Eighth grade reading standardized tests (2012) Reading: New Mexico ranked third from the bottom (ahead of Mississippi and DC) Math: New Mexico ranked fifth from the bottom
32 Comparison of Forecasts: Real GDP Organization Release Date CY2014 CY 2015 Conference Board 9-Apr Philadelphia Federal Reserve 14-Feb Congressional Budget Office 4-Feb Federal Open Market Committee 19-Mar to to 3.2 International Monetary Fund 21-Jan Organization for Economic Cooperation 1-Apr Average
33 Comparison of Forecasts: Inflation Organization Release Date CY2014 CY 2015 Conference Board 9-Apr-14 na na Philadelphia Federal Reserve 14-Feb Congressional Budget Office 4-Feb Federal Open Market Committee 19-Mar to to 2.0 International Monetary Fund 21-Jan Organization for Economic Cooperation 1-Apr Average
34 Questions Christopher A. Erickson, Ph.D. Department of Economics and International Business College of Business New Mexico State University
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