New Mexico Economy: Recent Developments and Outlook
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1 University of New Mexico UNM Digital Repository BBER Publications Bureau of Business and Economic Research New Mexico Economy: Recent Developments and Outlook Lee A. Reynis Follow this and additional works at: Recommended Citation Reynis, Lee A.. "New Mexico Economy: Recent Developments and Outlook." (2011). This Presentation is brought to you for free and open access by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at UNM Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in BBER Publications by an authorized administrator of UNM Digital Repository. For more information, please contact
2 University of New Mexico Bureau of Business and Economic Research New Mexico Economy: Recent Developments and Outlook Annual Economic Outlook Conference January 11, 2011 Dr. Lee A. Reynis, Director UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH 303 Girard Blvd. NE MSC / Onate Hall Albuquerque, New Mexico It is official. NM population now over 2 million. 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 New Mexico Decennial Population Population Annual Growth Rate r % 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: 2010 Census and UNM BBER Data Bank
3 The Great Recession New Mexico Style New Mexico and the US: Nonfarm Employment Growth Over Previous Business Cycles and National Recessions 15% % chg month over same month year ago, not seasonally adjusted 10% New Mexico US 5% 0% -5% -10% Calendar Year
4 May be insulated from some effects, not others Composition of NM Payroll Employment, 2009 New Mexico United States Private Nonfarm Establishments 75.5% 82.8% Natural Resources & Mining 2.2% 0.5% Construction 5.9% 4.6% Manufacturing 3.7% 9.1% Wholesale Trade 2.7% 4.3% Retail Trade 11.3% 11.1% Transp, Whsg & Utilities 2.8% 3.7% Information 1.8% 2.1% Financial Activities 4.1% 5.9% Professional & Business Services 12.6% 12.7% Education & Health Services 14.6% 14.7% Leisure & Hospitality 10.4% 10.0% Other Services 3.5% 4.1% Government 24.5% 17.2% Federal 3.9% 2.2% State 7.3% 4.0% Local 13.3% 11.1% Total Nonfarm Payrolls 100% 100% Source: NM Dept of Workforce Solutions, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, IH S Global Insight Total Nonfarm Payrolls Many channels whereby NM affected by what happens elsewhere. This time, exports fell off, commodity prices plummeted, asset prices tumbled, capital investment dried up, access to credit cut off 900,000,000 New Mexico Exports to Other Countries Quarterly, in Dollars 800,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 TOTAL ALL INDUSTRIES COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS Source: MISER
5 New Mexico and US Nonfarm Employment Quarterly % Change over Quarter Year Ago Forecast New Mexico US UNM BBER FOR-UNM and HIS Global Insight, Nov New Mexico has been slow on the up-tick, ranking close to the bottom among the states in job growth Paradox: NM has ranked at the bottom in terms of job growth but personal income growth among the highest in 2009 & 2010 Percentage Growth in Personal Income, 2009
6 New Mexico Personal Income and Components In $ Billions, Personal Income Amount Percent Wages & Salaries (0.7) (2.2) Employer Contributions Proprietors (0.7) (13.2) Farm Proprietors (0.3) (53.5) Non-Farm Proprietors (0.4) (8.2) Earnings by Place of Work (1.2) (2.4) Adjustment for Residence (0.0) (0.3) Less Contributions for Social Insurance (5.3) (5.3) 0.0 (0.6) Dividends, Interest & Rents (0.5) (4.1) Transfer Payments Total Chg. Personal Income Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Change Contribution of Different Public Programs to Growth in Transfer Payments, 2009 Amount in $ Billons Percent Chg Total Personal Transfer Paymets, 2009 $ Retirement and disability insurance benefits Medicare benefits Public assistance medical care benefits (Medicaid) Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) Unemployment insurance compensation Veterans benefits Education and training assistance Chg Accounted for by above public programs $ Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
7 Quarterly Unemployment Rate US and New Mexico, SAAR New Mexico US Forecast Source: Global Insight, Aug 10; BBER FOR-UNM, Nov 10 The Great Recession in New Mexico has been distinguished by its depth, by its length, by the numbers of people impacted, and by its breadth: Geographic
8 Geographic spreading of the recession in New Mexico Geographic spreading of the recovery Year-over-year employment growth a year later, 2010 Q2
9 And by the severity of the impacts across industrial sectors Growth by industrial sector, before Growth in NM Wage & Salary Employment, HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE LOCAL GOVERNMENT CONSTRUCTION PROF & BUSINESS ACCOMODATION & FOOD SERVICES STATE GOVERNMENT NATURAL RESOURCES & MINING RETAIL TRADE EDUCATIONAL SERVICES OTHER SERVICES ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT & RECREATION FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES WHOLESALE TRADE TRANSP, WHSG & UTILITIES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT MILITARY EMPLOYMENT INFORMATION MANUFACTURING Change in Nonfarm Employment = 102,067-10,000-5, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Note: Figures for State & Professional & Business Services adjusted to reflect current ownership of Los Alamos National Laboratory. Source: NM Dept of Workforce Solutions, Bureau of Economic Analysis (military)
10 in calendar 2009 Change in New Mexico Employment 2008 to 2009 Change in Nonfarm Employment = - 34,316 HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE MILITARY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT AND RECREATION LOCAL GOVERNMENT STATE GOVERNMENT EDUCATIONAL SERVICES INFORMATION FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES OTHER SERVICES WHOLESALE TRADE TRANSPORTATION, WAREHOUSING AND UTILITIES LEISURE & HOSPITALITY NATURAL RESOURCES AND MINING RETAIL TRADE MANUFACTURING PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES CONSTRUCTION -10,000-9,000-8,000-7,000-6,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Source: FOR-UNM, Nov Latest estimates, 2010 Q3 Change in New Mexico Employment 2009 Q3 to 2010 Q3 EDUCATION AND HEALTH CARE NATURAL RESOURCES & MINING WHOLESALE TRADE OTHER SERVICES MANUFACTURING FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES INFORMATION TRANSP, WHSG & UTILITIES HOSPITALITY & LEISURE RETAIL TRADE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT Change in Nonfarm Employment = - 5,534 STATE GOVERNMENT LOCAL GOVERNMENT PROF & BUSINESS CONSTRUCTION -4,000-3,000-2,000-1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Source: NM Dept of Workforce Solutions estimated government employment; BBER estimates of private Q3 activity based on QCEW
11 New Mexico, Recurring General Fund Revenues Actual Actual Forecast Actual Millions of Dollars FY 08 FY09 FY10 FY 10 (Dec 09 adj) 7/23/2010 Total $6,015 $5,320 $4,831 $4,799 General Sales 1,923 1,902 1,760 1,687 Income Taxes 1,568 1,121 1,158 1,065 Mineral Taxes Rents & Royalties NM Legislative Finance Committee, Dec 2009 and Dec 2010 The Economic Forecast for New Mexico
12 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% Positive but subdued employment growth: 0.7% in 2011; 1.5% or less thereafter Annual Growth in Nonfam Employment New Mexico and US New Mexico US Forecast Source: FOR-UNM, Nov 2010 Global Insight, Dec 2011 Among the MSAs, Las Cruces will grow the fastest Annual Growth in Nonfarm Employment US, NM, Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Las Cruces and Farmington 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% New Mexico US Albuquerque Santa Fe Las Cruces Farmington Forecast Source: Global Insight, FORUNM, Nov 10
13 Developments to watch Construction. Bottoming out. Then what? 70,000 60,000 50,000 Construction Employment New Mexico and Albuquerque New Mexico Albuquerque Forecast 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Source: FOR-UNM, Nov 2010
14 Federal Housing Finance Agency Housing Price Indexes All Trans Index, 2010 Q Albuquerque, NM Santa Fe, NM Phoenix Mesa Glendale, AZ Las Vegas Paradise, NV Denver Aurora Broomfield, CO Tucson, AZ % Change New Mexico Housing Units Permitted 18,000 16,000 Forecast 14,000 12,000 New Multifamily 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 New Single Family 2, Source: BBER FORUNM, Nov 2010
15 New Mexio Dollar Value of Construction Awards ($000,000) 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Non-Building Non-Residential Residential National Enrichment Facility $1.4 billion SOURCE: FW DODGE 10 m Mining and extractive industries New Mexico Mining Employment 22,500 21,500 Forecast 20,500 19,500 18,500 17,500 16,500 15,500 14,500 13,500 12, Source: BBER FOR-UNM, Nov 2010 Run-up in oil & gas prices culminated in 2008 spike and August 2008 collapse. Oil prices have since recovered as have prices for some other commodities, but not natural gas.
16 Nuclear NEF, recycling, uranium mining The new energy economy: solar, wind, biofuels, geothermal Electricity transmission extending the grid Tres Amigas Superstation, Clovis Broadband Navajo Nation, rural areas Transportation Union Pacific Manufacturing Manufacturing, an important sector with a shrinking workforce 45,000 43,000 41,000 39,000 37,000 35,000 33,000 31,000 29,000 27,000 New Mexico Manufacturing Employment Forecast Annual % Change in Manufacturing Employment Albuquerque MSA, New Mexico, US Source: FOR-UNM, Nov % 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Forecast Albuquerque New Mexico US And an industry subject to considerable volatility Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics & NM Dept of Workforce Solutions Global Insight, Nov 10; FORUNM, Nov 10
17
18 Government Federal Civilian & Military, State & Local Government Employment in New Mexico All Levels Indexed to Local State Federal Civilian Military LOS ALAMOS CONTRACTO R CHANGES Forecast Source: FOR-UNM, Nov 10 Fiscal Dilemma: the State s General Fund New Mexico Legislative Finance Committee, Consensus General Fund Revenue Estimates, Dec. UNM Bureau of 2010 Business and Economic Research
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20 New Mexico economy finally turning around, with positive year-over-year job growth. Growth is spreading geographically and by industrial sector. But unemployment rate still 8.5% SA in Nov 10 and expected to be higher in Moreover, BBER forecasts that may take until end of years from the time NM employment peaked to realize that previous high. And when do, unemployment will be 7.6% -- well above the 3.5% averaged in The end
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