Brian Spitznagel & Jeffrey Fritz MARKET UPDATE

Transcription

1 Brian Spitznagel & Jeffrey Fritz MARKET UPDATE Current Real Estate Market Conditions for Single Family Homes Trends in Pricing Current Levels of Supply and Demand Value Metrics Report for the week of November 02, 2015 Presented by Brian Spitznagel & Jeffrey Fritz Coldwell Banker Powered by Altos Research LLC Copyright Altos Research LLC

2 City Overview This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend The median list price in LOS ANGELES, CA this week is $789,000. The 1926 properties have been on the market for an average of 82 days. With inventory and days-on-market basically unchanged and the Market Action Index increasing, the market is not sending strong directional signal for the near-term outlook. Supply and Demand The market has been cooling over time and prices plateaued for a while. Despite the consistent decrease in MAI, we're in the Seller's zone. Watch for changes in MAI. If the MAI resumes it's climb, prices will likely follow suit. If the MAI drops consistently or falls into the Buyer's zone, watch for downward pressure on prices. Median List Price Average List Price Asking Price Per Square Foot Average Days on Market (DoM) Inventory of Properties Listed Most Expensive Listing Least Expensive Listing Average Age of Listing Percent of Properties with Price Decrease Percent Relisted (reset DOM) Percent Flip (price increased) Median House Size (sq ft) Median Lot Size Median Number of Bedrooms Median Number of Bathrooms Market Action Index Altos Research Value Statistics Seller's Advantage $ 789,000 $ % 26 % 4 % The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to the buyer. Trend Key: No change $ 1,497, $ 39,900,000 $ 49,900 == Strong upward trend Strong downward trend = Slight upward trend Slight downward trend 71 Characteristics per Quartile Quartile Median Price Sq. Ft. Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM Top/First $ 2,599, acre Most expensive 25% of properties Upper/Second $ 1,090, Upper-middle 25% of properties Lower/Third $ 549, Lower-middle 25% of properties Bottom/Fourth $ 300, Least expensive 25% of properties Page 2 of 11

3 City Overview Median Price The market appears to be hovering around this plateau. This week prices eased down a bit. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability of this shift. Quartile Prices Prices have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels. Page 3 of 11

4 City Overview Price per Square Foot The market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both been reasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves from these levels. Inventory of Properties Listed for Sale Inventory has been relatively steady around these levels in recent weeks. Page 4 of 11

5 City Overview Market Action Index The LOS ANGELES market is currently in the Seller's Advantage zone (greater than 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at which indicates that demand is strong and available supply of homes gets snapped up relatively quickly. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Market Action Index per Quartile Not surprisingly, all segments in the market are showing high levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the whole market changes. Often one end of the market (e.g. the high-end) will weaken before the rest of the market and signal a slowdown for the whole group. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer s Advantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction. Page 5 of 11

6 City Overview Days on Market The properties have been on the market for an average of 82 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 49 or so days. Days on Market per Quartile It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles. Page 6 of 11

7 Neighborhood Detail This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend The median list price in LOS ANGELES, CA this week is $1,280,000. The 53 properties have been on the market for an average of 37 days. Even though the days-on-market is trending higher, so is the Market Action Index at these inventory levels, providing a neutral outlook for the market. Supply and Demand The market has been cooling over time and prices plateaued for a while. Despite the consistent decrease in MAI, we're in the Seller's zone. Watch for changes in MAI. If the MAI resumes it's climb, prices will likely follow suit. If the MAI drops consistently or falls into the Buyer's zone, watch for downward pressure on prices. Median List Price Average List Price Asking Price Per Square Foot Average Days on Market (DoM) Inventory of Properties Listed Most Expensive Listing Least Expensive Listing Average Age of Listing Percent of Properties with Price Decrease Percent Relisted (reset DOM) Percent Flip (price increased) Median House Size (sq ft) Median Lot Size Median Number of Bedrooms Median Number of Bathrooms Market Action Index Altos Research Value Statistics Strong Seller's $ 1,280,000 $ % 8 % 4 % The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to the buyer. Trend Key: No change $ 1,428,770 = == Strong upward trend Strong downward trend = Slight upward trend Slight downward trend 53 $ 4,050,000 $ 399, Characteristics per Quartile Quartile Median Price Sq. Ft. Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM Top/First $ 2,025, Most expensive 25% of properties Upper/Second $ 1,585, Upper-middle 25% of properties Lower/Third $ 1,195, Lower-middle 25% of properties Bottom/Fourth $ 867, Least expensive 25% of properties Page 7 of 11

8 Neighborhood Detail Median Price In the last few weeks we've seen prices in this zip code bouncing around this plateau. Look for a persistent down-shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices deviate from these levels. Quartile Prices In most of the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have stabilized recently. Only Quartile 4 shows any price increases in the last few weeks. Often this condition happens in markets where demand has fallen (for example, due to microlocation variables) but supply is still relatively short. Buyers are focusing on the lowest price homes in the area. Page 8 of 11

9 Neighborhood Detail Price per Square Foot The market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both been reasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves from these levels. Inventory of Properties Listed for Sale Inventory has been relatively steady around these levels in recent weeks. Page 9 of 11

10 Neighborhood Detail Market Action Index The LOS ANGELES, market is currently quite strongly in the Seller's Advantage zone (greater than 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 48.52; indicating very little supply relative to the demand. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Market Action Index per Quartile Not surprisingly, all segments in this zip code are showing high levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the whole market changes. Often one end of the market (e.g. the high-end) will weaken before the rest of the market and signal a slowdown for the whole group. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer s Advantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction. Page 10 of 11

11 Neighborhood Detail Days on Market The properties have been on the market for an average of 37 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 28 or so days. Days on Market per Quartile It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles. Page 11 of 11