Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS:

Transcription

1

2 December 7, 13 Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT United States Real GDP $ billions (fourth quarter) $1,99 $1,575 $1,5 $1,9 $15, $15,5 $15,97 $1, % change over the four quarters 1.9% -.8% -.%.8%.%.%.% 3.5% Nonfarm employment Job count (fourth quarter) 137,93, 135,153,333 19,5,7 13,83,7 13,8,7 13,,7 13,79, 138,88,195 % change over the four quarters.9% -.% -.%.% 1.5% 1.% 1.7% 1.1% Average monthly change 99,75-3,7-8,889 3,83 1, , , ,333 Real GDP $ billions (fourth quarter) $51 $51 $5 $51 $51 $5 $53 $55 % change over the four quarters.% -1.1% -1.% 1.%.% 1.% 3.3% 3.8% Nonfarm employment Job count (fourth quarter) 55,933 35,533 3,7 5,333 15,733 7,97,91 51, % change over the four quarters 1.8% -3.1% -5.%.3% 1.7%.%.% 1.% Average monthly change 91-1,7 -, ,19 1,5 78 WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS: s GDP forecast is derived from the national forecast by allocating output to each of the 5 states based on employment shares. So, forecast misses reflect surprises in the aggregate forecast as well as unexpected shifts in a state s GDP share. s economy has mirrored the national economic trends in the past year. The state s job market is likely to continue to expand. Note: GDP figures are based on quarterly values that are interpolated from annual GDP estimates using quarterly employment changes. Unbolded figures are reported actual values and bold figures represent forecasts. Sources: US Department of Commerce; US Department of Labor Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking

3 Agriculture Mining Utilities Construction Durable manufacturing Nondudrable manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation Information Finance and insurance Real estate Professional and technical services Management of companies Administrative and waste management services Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Hotel and food service Other services Government December 7, 13 The Economy s Structure PERCENT OF TOTAL GDP DERIVED FROM SELECTED INDUSTRIES The figure compares the relative importance US industry mix 's industry mix of selected industries to the state s economy with the national footprint of each industry (state and national figures reflect the value added of each industry as a percent of aggregate state or US nominal GDP, respectively). depends more than other states on agriculture and some manufacturing. s economy is well balanced. Source: US Department of Commerce. Updated through 11. Regional Perspectives: Hawaii Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 3

4 December 7, 13 Bankruptcies RATIO OF BANKRUPTCY FILINGS TO THE 7 Q NUMBER The figure illustrates trends in bankruptcy Business bankruptcy filings Nonbusiness bankruptcy filings All US bankruptcy filings (shaded area) filings by businesses and persons relative to the number of filings in 7 Q, prior to the recession. Bankruptcy filings are back to pre-recession levels. Indicators of financial stress are a useful 3 3 coincident indication of economic distress. From this angle, economic prospects appear favorable. Source: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts; Updated through September Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking

5 December 7, 13 FRB SF Business Survey REAL GDP (% CHANGE 1 MONTHS EARLIER) DIFFUSION INDEXES ( = NO CHANGE) real GDP (left scale) FRB-San Francisco tech impulse index (right scale) Forecast The San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank survey of local businesses has stabilized, following a recent softening. The index readings represent the net difference in the percent expecting improving conditions and those expecting worsening conditions. The survey has moderated somewhat in the past year. The business outlook still remains favorable in. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; US Department of Commerce. Updated through October 13 (surveys) and 13 Q3 (GDP). Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 5

6 December 7, 13 Initial Jobless Claims RATIO OF INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE TO THE 7 Q LEVEL The figure tracks layoffs in and the.5.5 US (solid area).5.5 national level of claims. Weekly layoffs, both the state and national tallies, are illustrated in the figure as a ratio to the level of layoffs in the fourth quarter of.. 7, prior to the recession. Layoffs are at pre-recession lows The low level of applications for unemployment benefits implies that the recovery is getting traction Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through November 1, 13 (state) and November 3, 13 (US) Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking

7 December 7, 13 Economic Growth REAL GDP GROWTH (PERCENT CHANGE FROM FOUR QUARTERS EARLIER) US Forecast Real GDP growth in (the line in the figure) is superimposed on top of US real GDP growth (bars in the figure). s economy is beginning to pace the national economy s rebound. The outlook calls for somewhat faster growth in 1, supported in part by the energy industry. Source: US Department of Commerce. Updated through 1 (state) and 913 Q3 (US). Quarterly estimates for states after 1 are interpolated from employment figures, based on the historical correlation of state and national employment changes. Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 7

8 December 7, 13 Economic Output REAL GDP LEVEL (RATIO TO Q) The figure illustrates the evolution of real Forecast GDP of the state and the overall US economy since the fourth quarter of, the peak of the previous business cycle that is, at any point in time the lines trace the ratio of real GDP to its level in Q. has outpaced the national economy for the past decade and now is recovering on a parallel track with national GDP US s economy is forecast to pick up speed in the coming year. Source: US Department of Commerce. Updated through 1 (state) and 913 Q3 (US). Quarterly estimates for states after 1 are interpolated from employment figures, based on the historical correlation of state and national employment changes. Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 8

9 December 7, 13 Employment Growth NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (PERCENT CHANGE FROM 1 MONTHS EARLIER) Trends in the state s job market, compared 7 7 with the nation. s employment has been accelerating. 5 US Forecast should pace the national economy, leveraging its robust energy assets. 1 1 Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through October Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 9

10 December 7, 13 Employment NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (RATIO TO THE Q LEVEL) The figure illustrates the evolution of employment in the state compared with the nation since Q, the peak of the previous business cycle. The lines trace out the ratio of employment at the time to 1.1 Forecast 1.1 employment in Q. s economy boomed in the last decade, lifted by the strong energy sector, lost 1.7 US 1.7 ground in this recession, but now is back and robust s economy appears to be on the mend Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through October 13. Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 1

11 December 7, 13 Intrastate Employment NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT IN SELECTED COMMUNITIES (RATIO TO Q LEVEL) Job trends in local communities within the US forecast US state. Employment developments are mixed across the state Forecast Coeur d'alene Falls s economic fortunes are tied to the energy sector s strength Boise Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through April Pocatello Lewiston forecast Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 11

12 December 7, 13 Unemployment UNEMPLOYMENT (PERCENT OF THE LABOR FORCE) Unemployment in, compared with the 1 1 national trends. s unemployment rate has fallen rapidly 1 Forecast 1 but in recent months has turned up slightly. 8 US (shaded) 8 The unemployment rate is the single best indicator of the relative economic performance of a region. Falling unemployment is a testimony to the recovery trend that seems to be taking root in. Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through October Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 1

13 December 7, 13 Relative House Prices RATIO OF THE STATE S HOUSE PRICES TO THE NATIONAL AVERAGE (1995 Q = 1.) The figure tracks the relative price of houses in the state versus the nation that is, it reflects the ratio of the state price index to the national house price index, with that ratio set to unity in the summer of A drop in the line means that house prices in the state lag the national trend. States that did not suffer from speculative conditions saw a decline in the relative price of houses in this last decade. Speculative pressures in California reached into s real estate markets, but real estate prices are roughly in normal alignment with the national averages s inflated house prices have corrected and now are back to historically normal alignments. Source: FHFA. Updated through 13 Q3. Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 13

14 December 7, 13 Real Estate Markets HOUSE PRICES IN SELECTED COMMUNITIES (RATIO TO THE 1995 Q LEVEL) The figure tracks the cumulative percentage.5.5 deviation in house prices since 1995 in selected local markets and compares those.. with the national average. Prices are stabilizing in most real estate US Pocatello, ID Falls Lewiston Logan, UT-ID Coeur d'alene Boise City markets. KEY MESSAGE: Boise City markets have been weaker than others. Source: FHFA. Updated through 13 Q Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 1

15 December 7, 13 New Home Building HOUSING STARTS (RATIO TO THE JULY 199 LEVEL) The figure traces new home construction in, compared with the US average level of construction. s new home building dropped more 3 US 3 sharply in the recession in proportion to the national trend. Home building is slowly firming. Forecast New home building activity is likely to continue to revive into Source: Census Department. Updated through August Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 15

16