The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and Community Development

Transcription

1 The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and Community Development ECON 336: The Kansas City Economy University of Missouri Kansas City April 11, 2012 Kelly D. Edmiston

2 Outline The Federal Reserve System The Community Affairs Function Recent Research Projects January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 2

3 The Federal Reserve System The Federal Reserve Banks are twelve independent non-profit corporations Oversight is provided by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 3

4 12 Federal Reserve Districts January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 4

5 Objectives of the Fed Monetary Policy Facilitate the Payments System Cash Operations Check Clearing Electronic Payments Ensure the Safety and Soundness of the U.S. Banking System Bank Regulation Examination January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 5

6 Monetary Policy Federal Open Market Committee Governors (7) + 5 Bank Presidents (NY Fed and 4 others on rotating basis) meets 8 times per year Policy Levers set target federal funds rate set discount rate reserve requirements rarely, other extraordinary efforts January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 6

7 the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will purchase longer-term Treasury securities after its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities is completed at the end of the year, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month. - FOMC December Statement FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET Trillions $3 $2 $1 $0 -$1 Assets Traditional Portfolio Liabilities Foreign Currency Swaps Currency in Circulation Short-Term Lending Federal Agency & Mortgage-Backed Securities Reserves Trillions -$2 -$2 Other -$3 -$3 Feb. '07 Feb. '08 Feb. '09 Feb. '10 Feb. '11 Feb. '12 Feb. '13 $3 $2 $1 $0 -$1 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 7

8 COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AT THE KANSAS CITY FED January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 8

9 Mission of Community Affairs Community Affairs supports the Federal Reserve System s economic growth objectives by promoting: Community development Fair and impartial access to credit, and Access to mainstream banking services by the historically underserved. Key focus is on low- and moderate-income individuals, neighborhoods and communities. Traces origins to Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 9

10 LMI Profile in 10 th District Households that earn under 50% of an area s median income are considered low income. Households that earn between 50% and 80% of an area s median income are considered moderate income. Wyoming = $50,009 % LMI = 40.3% Cheyenne, WY = $49,748 % LMI = 38.4% Denver, CO = $58,039 % LMI = 39.7% * * * Colorado = $54,262 % LMI = 40.3% Albuquerque, NM = $45,634 % LMI = 40.7% New Mexico = $41,042 % LMI = 41.1% Nebraska = $46,954 % LMI = 39.8% Omaha, NE= $44,143 % LMI = 41.5% Kansas = $46,669 % LMI = 40.3% * * * * Topeka, KS= $45,781 % LMI = 40.9% Wichita, KS= $46,797 % LMI = 40.3% * Kansas City, MO-KS = $53,564 % LMI = 39.5% * Tulsa, OK= $43,749 % LMI = 40.4% Oklahoma City, OK = $43,652 % LMI = 40.1% Missouri = $44,545 % LMI = 41.1% National Median HH Income = $50,007 National Percent of LMI HH = 42.7% Oklahoma = $40,371 % LMI = 42.0% 10J Median HH Income = $47,000 10J Percent of LMI HH = 40.0 % *Metropolitan area January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 10

11 Community Development Key Areas of Focus Community Development Investments (CRA) Healthy Neighborhoods Financial Stability for the Underserved Small Business Development and Sustainability Workforce Development January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 11

12 Program Highlights Investment Connection CRA Training Forums / Conferences Deal brokering / Convenings Publications / pamphlets / webinars Community Intelligence Research January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 12

13 Community Development Resources Published Reports Research and Analysis Map Your Community January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 13

14 Consumer Credit Reports $20,000 Four-quarter moving average $20,000 Total Consumer Debt (excludes first mortgage) U.S. $16,000 MO $16,000 $12,000 $12,000 $8,000 Revolving Debt U.S. $8,000 MO $4,000 $4,000 $ $0 January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 14

15 Consumer Delinquencies 16% Four-quarter moving average 200 U.S. MO % 10.9% 150 8% 9.7% % % 4% 3.1% 3.4% % 1.7% 25 0% Auto Delinquency (percent of outstanding loans) Student Loan Delinquency (percent of outstanding loans) Bank Card Delinquency (percent of outstanding accounts) Delinquency on Any Account (percent of outstanding accounts) Bankruptcy Filings per 10,000 Households (annual rate) 0 January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 15

16 Dynamic Trend in Mortgage Delinquencies (Special Theme 4 th Quarter, 2012) 12% Share of Outstanding Mortgages Past Due 11.1% 12% 10% Foreclosure Seriously Delinquent 8.9% 10% 8% 8% 6% 5.6% 6% 4.1% 4% 4% 2% 1.8% 1.2% 2% 0% Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 0% January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 16

17 Serious Delinquency Maps January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 17

18 Recent Research Projects Student Loans: Is There a Crisis? The LMI Community in Recession and Recovery: Results from a New Survey January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 18

19 Research Projects STUDENT LOANS: IS THERE A CRISIS? January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 19

20 Student Loans: Is There a Crisis? Student loan debt has been increasing at a rapid pace in the last decade, climbing from about $364 billion in the first quarter of 2005 to $904 billion in the first quarter of 2012, a rate of 13.9 percent annually (compounded). High debt levels, coupled with high default rates, present a number of challenges for individual student loan borrowers, but do not necessarily pose a substantial burden on society at large. January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 20

21 Student Loans Overview and Issues Growth in Student Loan Lending Student Burden, the Capacity to Repay, and Delinquency Fiscal Impact Paper is available at Presentation is available at January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 21

22 Outstanding Student Loan Debt $1.0 $trillions $trillions $1.0 $ $0.9 $0.8 $0.8 $0.7 $0.7 $0.6 $0.6 $0.5 $0.5 $0.4 $0.4 $0.3 $0.3 $0.2 $0.2 $0.1 $0.1 $ ,006 2, Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York $0.0 January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 22

23 Growth in Student Loan Lending $50 $2010 Billions $2010 Billions $50 Unsubsidized Stafford $40 $40 $30 Subsidized Stafford $30 $20 $10 Nonfederal Other Federal $20 $10 $ Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid $0 January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 23

24 Outstanding Student Loan Debt Most of increase coming from increased number of borrowers increases in average debt is moderate Largely driven by enrollments Moderate increase in Enrollments share who borrow Some increase in average debt in past year (Equifax) Likely a function of economy and tuition/assistance What is the issue? Borrower capacity to repay / burden Fiscal burden January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 24

25 Capacity to Repay / Burden Individual Student Loan Debt Statistics (First Qtr, 2012) Median $13,662; Average $24,218 25% under $5,977 25% over $29,155 > 3% with debt over $100, % over $200,000 Payments (in repayment): $190 median; < $95 for 25%; >$382 for 25% 40% of borrowers under 30 (1/3 over 40) Sources: Authors calculations using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel; Federal Reserve Bank of New York January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 25

26 Student Loan Delinquency (share of outstanding loans) NY Fed: 47% in school/deferment or forbearance 27% delinquency for those in repayment (past due balance) Sources: Authors calculations using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 26

27 Cohort Default Rates 25% Share of cohort in default 22.4% 21.4% 25% 20% 20% 17.6% 17.2% 17.8% 15% 15.0% 15% 10% 11.6% 10.7% 10.4% 9.6% 8.8% 8.8% 9.1% 10% 5% 6.9% 5.6% 5.9% 5.4% 5.2% 4.5% 5.1% 4.6% 5.2% 6.7% 7.0% 5% 0% % January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 27

28 Issues Driving Delinquency Recession and Recovery Most over-due balances for those over 30 Unemployment (real rate?), esp. for young Underemployment Slower wage and salary growth, esp. for young AP: 50% of young unemployed/underemployed Noncompletion Better prospects for completers (buying an asset; lifetime income) Especially high for for-profit (28% completion for-profit, 56% public, 65% private not-for-profit) No credit consideration Poor borrower information January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 28

29 Fiscal Impact Accrual-based budgeting NPV (incl disbursements, subsidies, payments) Federal Credit Reform Act (FCRA, 1990) method Federal Government Costs using FCRA FY2011: -$47.3b FY2012: -$34.3b (est.) FY 2013: -$32.2b (proposed) Updates vs. fair-value January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 29

30 Fiscal Impact Accrual-based budgeting (cont) Fair-value estimates CBO: 11 percent of disbursements Implies $13.3b (+$3b consolidation) Indirect Greater income tax revenues; lower costs Interest deductions Outlook Not expected to see much higher default rates Could see continued rapid increases in borrowing Reform options January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 30

31 Research Projects THE LMI COMMUNITY IN RECESSION AND RECOVERY: RESULTS FROM A NEW SURVEY (FORTHCOMING, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY ECONOMIC REVIEW, Q1, 2013) January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 31

32 Purpose of the Paper Primary How did the LMI community fare during the recession and recovery? Secondary Validation of the survey with other Fed Bank surveys and external data January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 32

33 The LMI Community in Recession and Recovery: Results from a New Survey There is a dearth of data available on the LMI population, and the lack of data presents a considerable problem to those who would like to analyze economic conditions of this cohort. Lacking information to maintain a reliable gauge on economic conditions for the LMI population, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City stepped in to provide a new source for such information a quarterly survey of organizations that provide services directly to LMI individuals and families. January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 33

34 Annual Growth in Real GDP Annual Percent Change Annual Percent Change January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 34

35 Historical Recessions 1.0 % Change from Peak Employment Months Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 35

36 110 Inflation-Adjusted Family Income, by Quintile Index: 2001 = 100 Index: 2001 = Lowest Quintile Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Highest Quintile January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 36

37 Survey Coverage Overall financial conditions (general assessment) Demand for services (general assessment) Job availability Availability of affordable housing Access to Credit Funding for organizations Organization non-financial capacity January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 37

38 Survey Design Rolling benchmark: better, worse, or the same Index: %better - %worse Index takes values between 0 and in neutral < 100 indicates deterioration in conditions Any number below 100 indicates deterioration, even if the index is rising > 100 indicates improvement in conditions January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 38

39 Job Availability Index (Neutral = 100) Index (Neutral = 100) Next Quarter Projection Relative to Previous Quarter Relative to Previous Year q q2 q3 q4 q q2 q3 q4 q1* 2011 q2 q3 q4 q q2 q3 0.0 January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 39

40 Job Availability 70 Index: Neutral = 50 Index: Neutral = Dallas Philadelphia Kansas City Boston q q2 q3 q4 q q2 q3 q4 q q2 q3 q4 q q2 q3 0 January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 40

41 Employment Growth by Income Cohort 140 Index: 2001=100 Index: 2001= HI MI LMI Source: Author s calculations using data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Each point on the chart shows total employment by occupation group relative to its level in January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 41

42 U.S. Job Growth and the LMI Job Availability Index 1, Thousands of Jobs U.S. Job Growth (left axis) Index: 100 = Neutral ,000 KC Fed LMI Job Availability Index (right axis) , , , q1 2009q2 2009q3 2009q4 2010q1 2010q2 2010q3 2010q4 2011q1 2011q2 2011q3 2011q4 2012q1 2012q2 2012q3 0 January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 42

43 Federal Reserve Bank LMI Affordable Housing Indexes 70 Index: Neutral = 50 Index: Neutral = Dallas Boston Kansas City Philadelphia q q2 q3 q4 q q2 q3 q4 q q2 q3 q4 q q2 q3 0 January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 43

44 Federal Reserve Bank LMI Credit Access Indexes 70 Index: Neutral = 50 Index: Neutral = Dallas Kansas City Boston Philadelphia q q2 q3 q4 q q2 q3 q4 q q2 q3 q4 q Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Kansas City. Note: The Kansas City LMI Affordable Housing Index was adjusted to be consistent with other reserve bank indexes (50 = neutral). January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 44 q2 q3 0

45 Federal Reserve Bank LMI Demand for Services Indexes 100 Index: Neutral = 50 Index: Neutral = Dallas Philadelphia Kansas City Boston q q2 q3 q4 q q2 q3 q4 q q2 q3 q4 q Note: In this chart, higher numbers indicate a greater demand for services, so unlike the other charts from reserve bank surveys, higher numbers indicate deteriorating conditions. The Kansas City Fed s LMI Survey results were adjusted to be consistent with this concept. A value of 100 would indicate that all respondents reported that the demand for their services had increased. q2 q3 30 January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 45

46 Participation in the SNAP (formerly food stamps) Program 50,000 45,000 Thousands Recession Thousands 50,000 45,000 40,000 40,000 35,000 35,000 30,000 30,000 25,000 25,000 20,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 5, Source: United States Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service 0 January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 46

47 Lowest Quintile Nominal Income Growth and Growth in Consumer Prices Index 2001=100 Index 2001= Lowest Quintile Nominal Income CPI Poverty CPI (IBEX) January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 47

48 Contact Information: Kelly D. Edmiston Senior Economist Community Development 1 Memorial Drive Kansas City, MO (816) Kelly.edmiston@kc.frb.org January 23, 2013 K. Edmiston, FRBKC 48