Nevada. Economy In Brief

Transcription

1 Nevada Economy In Brief A Monthly Review of Workforce and Economic Information Economic Summary Labor market information from the second quarter (April through June) of 2018 has been released, allowing us to once again take stock of Nevada s progress over the course of the economic expansion via the Silver State s quarterly Recovery Scorecard. The State continues to see positive trends across a range of measures, including ongoing wage gains, the fastest-growing private sector in the nation, strong small business employment, and declining unemployment rates and unemployment insurance claims activity. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released 2018:IQ personal income data. Personal income is the income received by all persons from all sources: net earnings, property income, and personal current transfer receipts. It is one of the broadest measures of economic activity at the state level. Information for the first quarter of 2018 shows personal income in Nevada reached $136 billion, up 4.1 percent from a year ago. In fact, personal income has increased in 31 of the past 32 quarters, starting in late Nevada s average personal income growth has exceeded that for the U.S. over 15 of the past 17 quarters. During 2018:IQ, personal income in the nation as a whole grew 3.6 percent, 0.4 percentage point below the Silver State s gain. Ne- Economic Indicators UNEMPLOYMENT RATES vada s year-over-year growth is the 9th strongest in the U.S. Since the beginning of 2014, income gains in Nevada averaged 5.3 percent annually, compared to 3.9 percent in the U.S. Silver State employment continues to grow as Nevada added 2,000 jobs over the month in June, seasonally adjusted. May s employment estimates were also revised upward by 1,600, reversing that month s loss and bringing the total two-month gain to 2,900 jobs. The seasonally-adjusted gain comes as a result of the State shedding only 300 jobs, unadjusted, after the State was expected to lose 2,300 based upon historical trends. The majority of those unadjusted losses occurred in the government sector, likely a result of schools letting out for the summer. Based upon historical trends, 6,800 government jobs were expected to be lost. However, only 5,800 jobs were actually shed, resulting in a seasonally-adjusted increase of 1,000 in the public sector. The private sector added 5,500 jobs, after being expected to add 4,500, resulting in a seasonally-adjusted gain of 1,000 jobs. JOB GROWTH (YOY) Nevada* Las Vegas MSA* Reno-Sparks MSA* Carson City MSA* United States* 2.8% 2.7% 3.7% 3.3% 1.6% GAMING WIN (YOY) May % 5.1% 7.1% Washoe County TAXABLE SALES (YOY) April 2018 Nevada Clark County Washoe County 8.6% 8.2% 12.3% *Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate by County Humboldt Elko Pershing Lander Washoe Eureka White Pine Churchill Lyon Storey 4.7% 4.7% 3.5% 4.3% 4.0% Nevada Clark County Over the year, the Silver State added 37,600 jobs, seasonally adjusted, a gain of 2.8 percent. Nationally, employment grew by just 1.6 percent over the same period. June marks the 90th straight month P: (775) Nevada* Las Vegas MSA Reno-Sparks MSA Carson City MSA United States* Carson Douglas Mineral Esmeralda Nye Lincoln Less Than or Equal to 4.0% Between 4.1% and 4.8% Clark Between 4.9% and 5.5% Between 5.6 and 6.3% Betweem 6.4 and 7.0% Greater Than or Equal to 7.1% RESEARCH Nevada s premier source of & workforce and economic ANALYSIS information and analysis

2 Economic Summary of year-over-year job gains in the State. Silver State Economy Continues to Expand Manufacturing continues to lead the way in terms of year-to-date job gains, adding 6,600 jobs or 14.4 percent through the first six months of the year (compared to the same period last year). Construction follows with a gain of 6,400 jobs or 7.8 percent. Government (up 6,000), education/ health services (+5,900), and trade/transportation/utilities (+5,800) also saw large gains. Information continues to be the only supersector seeing year-to-date declines in employment. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Program, produced by state agencies in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), represents a comprehensive count of employment based on information reported by all businesses covered under the Unemployment Insurance System, but is not available until several months following the end of a calendar quarter. Using this information, we can examine how job growth compares across establishment size groups. Private sector 2017 job growth was widespread across all establishment size groups. All told, jobs were up by almost 39,000 from Establishments with 20 to 49 employees led the way with 8,600 new jobs. Next in line were those worksites with 100 to 249 workers, up 7,500 from the prior year. Businesses with 50 to 99 workers added just over 6,300 jobs. Job counts in those establishments with less than 100 employees, our definition of small business, were up 20,000 relative to 2016, accounting for nearly 51 percent of total growth. By the end of 2017, small business employment totaled 623,000, a record high. Job growth in Nevada s largest establishments, those with at least 500 workers, totaled 6,000 for all of Personal Income on the Rise in 31 of the Past 32 Quarters; Growth Trending Higher than the U.S., 9th Strongest Gain in the Nation in 2018:IQ personal income; thousands of $; seasonally adjusted annual rates $160,000,000 $140,000,000 $120,000,000 $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $0-8% '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Job Gains Across All Size Groups; Establishments with Less Than 100 Workers Added 20,000 Jobs in 2017 Job Growth by Establishment Size Personal Income in Nevada percentage change personal income 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% year-over-year percentage change Nevada s economy is dominated by small business establishments (defined as those with less than 100 employees). All told, there were nearly 79,000 private sector worksites Statewide in The largest establishment size category (by total number of worksites) is those with zero to four employees, accounting for 59 percent (46,000) of all worksites. The next four largest categories (ranging in size from five to 99 workers) account for nearly all remaining establishments. When combined, work- establishment size (employment) ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12, job growth

3 Economic Summary sites with less 100 workers account for nearly 98 percent of all establishments in Nevada. Large and medium-size establishments, those with 100 or more employees, account for two percent of worksites Statewide. There are approximately 1,700 worksites with at least 100 employees, including 80 with at least 1,000 workers. Although large employers represent only two percent of all worksites, they account for nearly fifty percent of total private employment. Using NPWR s 1 Career Earnings Report for Nevada s bachelor s degree holders, this month we looked at annual wages earned three years after graduation, broken out by graduation year. According to this report, the median wage for people with bachelor s degrees fell from $53,000 for those who graduated in 2004 (wages earned in 2007), the beginning of the series, to a relative minimum of $41,000 for those who graduated in 2009 (wages earned in 2012). Since then, wages for this cohort have grown or held steady in each year. Wages averaged $46,000 for those who graduated in 2013 (wages earned in 2016). Relative to the trough, 2013 graduates are earning 12.2 percent more than 2009 grads, coinciding with the recovery period in Nevada following the recession. Perhaps more telling, 2013 graduates are earning 13.2 percent less than did 2004 graduates three years after graduation. This is due to these wages being recorded during the height of the pre-recessionary boom. Following last month s 0.1 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate, June saw further progress as the rate dropped an additional 0.1 percentage point to 4.7 percent, seasonally adjusted. The last time Nevada saw the unemployment rate so low was in September of June s rate marks a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the same month last year. Nationally, the unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage point in June, to four percent. Thus, the gap between the Silver State and the nation contracted to 0.7 percentage points. establishment size (employment) Wages - Thousands of Dollars Small Businesses Represent 98% of all Private Sector Business Establishments in Nevada ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 establishments Wages for Bachelor s Degree Holders Three Years Post Graduation Increasing for Graduates Since Number of Establishments by Size Class Annual Wages Three Years After Graduation Graduation Year Strong Growth in Labor Force Continues Through 2018 Second Quarter Nevada Labor Force (2018: IIQ YTD average growth) labor force employment unemployment unemployment rate 2017: IIQ YTD 1,452,800 1,376,950 75, % 2018: IIQ YTD 1,491,920 1,420,630 71, % Change 39,120 43,680-4, % Information from the Local Area Unemployment 1 NPWR is a research tool resulting from a collaborative effort by the Nevada Department of Education, the Nevada System of Higher Education, and the Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation. NPWR is a system that securely integrates each agency s de-identified data to provide first-hand information on trends and outcomes across education and workforce programs in the State of Nevada.

4 Economic Summary Statistics (LAUS) Program, produced by state agencies in cooperation with the BLS, allows us to assess growth and decline in Nevada s labor force, employment, unemployment and the unemployment rate (the unemployed to labor force ratio). Estimates show that Nevada s labor force has averaged 1.49 million through 2018 s second quarter, up from 1.45 million during the same period in 2017 (non-seasonally adjusted). This translates into an increase of 39,120 more Nevadans in the labor force, either working or actively seeking employment. Over the same period, employment increased by 43,680. The number of unemployed fell by over 4,550 relative to the first half of unemployed for 27+ weeks; 12-month moving average 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Long-Term Unemployment Rate for year old Nevadans Tends to be Lower Compared to Other Age Groups Long-Term Unemployment Rates by Age Group These trends have resulted in a slight decline in the unemployment rate. Through the second quarter of 2017, the unemployment rate averaged 5.2 percent. With a solid employment growth and a reduction in unemployment, it has declined to 4.8 percent so far this year. Nevada s labor force has increased 2.7 percent over the year through the second quarter of That compares to a 1.1 percent increase nationwide. Those counted amongst the long-term unemployed have been without a job for at least 27 weeks. The monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), sponsored by the Census Bureau and the BLS, provides long-term unemployment rate (UR) figures going back to The long-term UR is the ratio of long-term unemployed to the total labor force. For the 12-month period ending in, the Silver State had a long-term unemployment rate of 0.9 percent, down 6.1 percentage points from its peak. The current rate is slightly above the record low of 0.3 percent in early At the height of the recession, the number of longterm unemployed in Nevada totaled 92,900. As of the number of Nevadans unemployed for 27 weeks or more stands at 12,900. Information from the CPS allows for the analysis of the long-term unemployment rate by age group. The long-term UR tends to be lower for 25 to 54 year old Nevadans compared to other age groups. The rate for this age group peaked at 6.7 percent in early As of May 2018 the rate stands at 0.7 percent, slightly up from a record low of 0.2 percent in early unemployment rate; 12-month moving average unemployment rate; 12-month moving average 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 ' long term UR long term UR 55+ long term UR NV long term UR Unemployment Rate in Nevada Varies Across Race Groups Unemployment Rates by Race and Ethnicity 0% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 White Hispanic Black total rate 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Nevada s Veteran Unemployment Rate Trending Up as of Late; 4.9 Percent Over Past 12 Months Nevada's Unemployment Rate for Veterans 0% '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 veteran rate total rate

5 Economic Summary The long-term unemployment rate for Nevadans 55+ years old, peaked at 7.8 percent in late The record low was 0.8 percent in mid As of May 2018 the long-term rate stands at 1.3 percent. Teenagers and young adults (16 to 24 years old) long term unemployment rate peaked at nine percent in early The record low was 0.8 percent in late As of May 2018 the rate remains at 1.8 percent. The monthly CPS also allows for the analysis of the unemployment rate in the Silver State by race. In early 2006, the unemployment rate for Blacks was 7.4 percent (expressed as a 12-month moving average), compared to that for Whites at four percent. The rate for people of Hispanic origin was 4.1 percent. The unemployment rate for Blacks peaked at 22.6 percent in early 2012, while the rate for Whites topped out at 13.9 percent in late The rate for Hispanics peaked at 18.7 percent in mid For the year ending in, Blacks have an unemployment rate of 8.2 percent, down from 11.4 percent a year ago. The rate for Whites is 4.5 percent, slightly higher than a year ago at 4.2 percent. The rate for Hispanics stands at 5.4 percent, up from 4.9 percent last year. In June the overall unemployment rate is 4.9 percent 2. The unemployment rate in Nevada varies across race. The BLS indicates that labor market differences across racial groups are associated with many factors, not all of which are measurable. These factors include variations across the groups in educational attainment, the occupations and industries in which they work, and the geographic areas in which the groups are concentrated (including urban or rural settings). Information from the CPS additionally allows for the analysis of the unemployment rate of the Silver State s veteran population. According to the BLS, veterans are men and women who previously served on active duty in the Labor Force Participation Rate for Nevadans 25 to 54 Years Old Tends to be Higher than that for Other Age Groups labor force participation rate; 12-month moving average labor force participation rate; 12-month moving average 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% 60% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '04 '05 U.S. Armed Forces and who were civilians at the time they were surveyed. At its peak in mid-2011, the veteran unemployment rate stood at 14.7 percent- -slightly higher than the peak rate for total unemployment, which was 14.4 percent at the end of However, in 2012, the unemployment rate for veterans started to trend down. As of, veterans in Nevada have an unemployment rate of 4.9 percent (expressed as a 12-month moving average), up from four percent a year ago. Over the past 18 months the series is trending up. In comparison, the total unemployment rate Labor Force Participation Rate NV LFPR U.S. Labor Force Participation by Age Group in Nevada '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 ' LFPR LFPR 55+ LFPR NV LFPR '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 is 4.9 percent this month (again, expressed as a 12-month moving average), down from five percent in June last year. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple measure: the ratio of the labor force relative to the population (16 years and older). It measures the extent to which Nevadans are participating in the workforce, either as workers or job seekers. The monthly CPS provides labor force participation rate figures since The labor force participation rate in Nevada topped out at 73.6 percent in mid-1982, measured on a 12-month moving average, and has been trending down since. 2 It should be noted that utilizing information solely from the CPS results in a slightly different total unemployment rate than what is officially reported. The State s official rate incorporates information regarding job trends and unemployment insurance claims activity into the calculation, in addition to CPS results. 3 It should be noted that utilizing information solely from the CPS results in a slightly different total unemployment rate than what is officially reported. The State s official rate incorporates information regarding job trends and unemployment insurance claims activity into the calculation, in addition to CPS results.

6 Economic Summary During the same period, the U.S. rate stood at 63.8 percent. In fact, for the nearly four decades from 1977 to early 2016 the Silver State s LFPR was higher than the nation s. As of the LFPR in Nevada stands at 62.3 percent, compare to 62.9 percent nationwide. CPS estimates allow us to analyze the labor force participation rate by age group. In 2006, the 25 to 54 year old group in the Silver State had the highest participation rate at 83.8 percent. The 16 to 24 year old LFPR in Nevada stood at 66 percent. The 55+ year old LFPR in the Silver State was 39 percent. Labor force participation rates observed nationwide were similar to the Silver State in this period. claims per 1,000 jobs Initial Claims Activity Relative to the Employment Base at Record Low Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Benefits per 1,000 jobs '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Since early 2016 Nevada s LFPR has been below the nation s by less than one percentage point. In 2016 the 25 to 54 year old rate stood at 80.6 percent in Nevada, while in the U.S. stood at 81.3 percent. The 16 to 24 year old LFPR was 56 percent compared to 55 percent in the U.S., followed by the 55+ year old LFPR at 36 percent in Nevada, which stood at 40 percent nationwide. As of May 2018, Nevadans 25 to 54 years old show the highest participation rate at 81.7 percent, followed by 16 to 24 year olds at 58.7 percent, and the 55+ year old group at 37.4 percent. With data through June, we can see that initial claims for unemployment insurance have declined, on a year-over-year basis, in each of the first six months of In fact, when we compare the first six months of claims activity this year to the same period last year, claims are down 5.3 percent. Turning to the June data, claims have fallen by 7.1 percent this month compared to last June, a decline of nearly 760 claims. However, there was a slight uptick in claims activity this month when compared to May, with an increase of 2.2 percent. Corroborat- ing these trends, the exhaustion rate has fallen to 33.6 percent, the lowest level since March With data from the Nevada unemployment insurance system, claims activity in Nevada is improving year after year following the recession, though there is some question as to how much more room for improvement, if any, there might be. A measure that may provide some insight is the ratio of weekly initial claims per 1,000 jobs in the State. Since 1990, there has been an average of just over three initial claims per 1,000 jobs in Nevada, with the ratio rising during the three recessionary periods and declining during the periods of recovery and growth. Since reaching the recessionary peak of more than five initial claims per 1,000 jobs in late 2009, the ratio has been in decline. Over the last several years, the ratio has fallen well below the historical average, with its current value of 1.95 initial claims per 1,000 jobs, a record low since the beginning of the observed period. Considering this relative minimum, further downward pressure is unlikely as continued declines in initial claims, seen in Nevada over the last several years, are not expected to continue. With real-time labor market information obtained as part of DETR s Silver State Solutions Initiative, we can provide an alternative assessment of the health of the State s economy via an analysis of current online job posting activity 4. Yearto-date through June, 131,500 ads have been posted for jobs in Nevada, an increase of 18,400 from the same period last year. Full time jobs accounted for 84.2 percent of listings so far this year, a decline of two percentage points from Online job postings are obtained through DETR s Silver State Solutions initiative. Online job posting volume does not necessarily correlate with the level of job openings or hiring. Internal company hiring and union hiring are often not captured by online ads. High ad volume often occurs for occupations/industries that are having difficulty finding qualified candidates, high turnover positions/recurring openings, or when companies are building large candidate pools. Online job postings should only be used with caution when developing/analyzing time series trends due to the constant changes in the rate of online advertising usage and in the methods used for collecting the data. 5 Not all job ads specify whether the advertised position is full time or part time.

7 Sub-State Economic Summary Statewide, seasonally adjusted employment increased by 2,000 jobs in June, relative to May. As for Nevada s major population centers, gains were realized in all three metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) this month. Las Vegas employment saw a seasonallyadjusted increase of 400 jobs, the result of only decreasing by 3,000 jobs when 3,400 were expected to be lost. Reno employment realized a seasonally-adjusted increase of 700 jobs, the result of increasing by 400 jobs when a decline of 300 jobs was expected in the area. Carson City saw a seasonallyadjusted increase of 100 jobs, the result of increasing by 100 jobs when no change in employment was expected. Year-over-year employment increased in the State as a whole and in all MSAs in June. Reno and Carson City both added jobs at a faster rate than the State as a whole this month. Statewide, jobs increased by 2.8 percent, which correlates to 37,600 new jobs added since June of last year. In Las Vegas, jobs increased by 26,000 year over year, which correlates to a growth rate of 2.7 percent. Specifically, goodsproducing industries added 6,900 jobs to payrolls while service-providing industries added 21, In Reno, 8,600 jobs were added over the year, translating to a growth rate of 3.7 percent. That area saw an increase of 4,100 goods-producing jobs and 4,500 service-providing jobs. In Carson City, 1,000 jobs were added relative to last year, resulting in a growth rate of 3.3 percent. That area saw an increase of 200 goods-producing jobs and 800 service-providing jobs. The Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Program, produced by State agencies in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, allows us to assess growth/decline in each county s labor force, employment, unemployment and the unemployment rate (unemployment-labor force ratio). Figures in this research note are not seasonally Initial Claims Activity Relative to the Employment Base at Record Low County labor force employment unemployment unemployment rate Clark 29,440 32,185-2, % Washoe 9,170 10,245-1, % Eureka % Mineral % Elko % Pershing % Lincoln % White Pine % Storey % Esmeralda % Lander % Carson City % Nye % Douglas % Humboldt % Churchill % Lyon % adjusted. Labor force includes those actively involved in the labor market, either employed or actively looking for work. Over-the-year estimates through show that labor force growth is concentrated in the State s urban areas. On the other hand, most rural counties experienced declines in the labor force during this period. Urban areas in Nevada have been experiencing strong employment increases. A decrease in the other component of labor force, unemployment, paired with strong employment growth has led to overall growth in the labor force to be positive. This likely reflects that unemployed Nevadans are finding jobs. Clark County s labor force is up 29,440, while Washoe s has increased 9,170 compared to the first six months of last year. Both areas show an increase in employment and a decrease in unemployment. Washoe s unemployment rate is down by 0.6 percentage point relative to the first six months of 2017, while Clark County s rate decline registered at 0.4 percentage point. The majority of rural areas in the Silver State show a reduction in employment. These areas also experienced a reduction in unemployment at the same time leading to an overall decline in labor force. This decline in the labor force is explained in part by population/commuter patterns and industry distributions prevalent in these areas. Population estimates from the U.S. Census indicate that the population declined in almost half of the State s rural counties from 2015 to Additionally, many of these areas have a smaller distribution of industries and a higher concentration in mining. ¹ References to total MSA employment are adjusted for seasonality, whereas references to goods-producing and service-providing industries are not.

8 Sub-State Economic Summary Nine out of 14 small counties in Nevada saw a reduction in employment overthe-year through June when compared to the first six months of last year. One county in the State saw an increase in unemployment and 13 counties experienced a reduction in unemployment. The largest decline in the jobless rate is found in Esmeralda County, down 0.95 percentage points. Other notable declines in the jobless rate are found in Lander County, with a decline of 0.85, and Douglas County, with a decline of 0.72 percentage points. Unemployment rates decreased in all of the State s major population centers on year-over-year basis 2 but increased in all regions on a month-over-month basis in June. The increase over-themonth in the State s population centers is likely due to a slight correction from May s sizable rate declines. In Las Vegas the unemployment rate is at 4.7 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from May, and down 0.8 percentage point from June last year. Reno s unemployment rate is at 3.5 percent, up 0.2 percentage point from May, and down 0.8 percentage point from this time last year. The unemployment rate in Carson City is at 4.3 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from May, and down 0.4 percentage point from June last year. Unemployment rates declined on an over-the-year basis in 14 of 17 counties this month. Rate declines ranged from 0.3 percentage point (Eureka) to 0.9 percentage point (Humboldt, Lander, and Nye). Esmeralda realized the only rate increase of two percent this month. The unemployment rates in Lincoln County and Mineral County remained unchanged in June. Mineral, at 5.6 percent, has the highest unemployment rate in the Silver State this month. All counties remain below six percent unemployment in May with nine counties below four percent. Eureka, at 2.5 percent, is home to the State s lowest unemployment rate. Elko, Humboldt, and Lander (all below 3.5 percent) also maintain relatively low unemployment rates. Using a 13 week moving average, Statewide weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance have seen nearly a seven percent decline through June when compared to the same period last year. This has led to year-overyear declines in seven of Nevada s 17 counties, and has resulted in claims to hold steady levels in six counties. Of Nevada s three largest counties, Clark County has seen the largest nominal decline, with a decrease of 179 claims per week, or eight percent compared to the same period last year. Washoe County has seen a slight decrease in weekly claims, down nearly three percent, or seven claims per week. Carson City, the State s smallest metropolitan statistical area, has seen weekly claims rise by five, to an average of 38 claims per week, a 14.5 percent increase from a year ago. Weekly claims levels in Nevada s smaller counties saw little nominal change in June. The 12-month moving average of the unemployment insurance (UI) benefits exhaustion rate, which measures the average share of UI recipients that run out of benefits before finding employment, has fallen to 35.2 percent at the Statewide level, the lowest reading since January When the exhaustion rate is considered on a county-bycounty basis, rates ranged from less than ten percent in Eureka County to nearly 50 percent in Mineral County. Counties with exhaustion rates in excess of 40 percent include Mineral (48.6 percent), Esmeralda (47.1 per- cent), Lincoln (43 percent), and Lander (40.62 percent). Counties with lower exhaustion rates, which are below 25 percent, include Storey (21 percent), Churchill (20.8 percent), and Eureka (9.1 percent). It is notable that the mining counties in the State experience lower exhaustion rates. As an example, Elko County had an exhaustion rate of 25 percent over the observed period, ten percentage points lower than the State as a whole. Unsurprisingly, the exhaustion rate in Clark County, Nevada s largest county, averaged 36.5 percent over the last 12 months, only 1.63 percentage points higher than the Statewide average. Year-to-date online job posting activity decreased in 12 of 17 counties in June 3. Clark (+15,200) experienced the largest increase in ad volume over last year, totaling 91,900 ads year-todate. Washoe has also seen a notable increase in ad volume over last year (+7,300), totaling 25,500 ads year-todate. Eureka (+30), Pershing (+5), and Storey (+3) are the only other counties who saw increases in ad volume over last year. Carson City has realized the largest decrease of ads (-900) over last year, totaling 3,800 ads through June of this year. Other notable declines in job ads were realized in Douglas (-840), Elko (-670), and Churchill (-510) counties. Despite job posting volume being down in many of Nevada s smaller counties, Statewide job posting activity continues to show improvement. The State as a whole has posted 131,500 ads through June, up 18,400 ads over the year. ¹ References to total MSA employment are adjusted for seasonality, whereas references to goods-producing and service-providing industries are not. 2 The State s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 4.7 percent in June, down from 4.8 percent in May and down from 5.1 percent in June Unemployment rates for the State s metropolitan areas and counties reported here are not for seasonality. Hence, comparisons to the State s seasonally adjusted rate should be avoided. Legitimate comparisons, however, can be made to the State s unadjusted rate percent - in June, up from 4.2 percent in May and down from 5.3 percent in June Online job postings are obtained through DETR s Silver State Solutions initiative. Online job posting volume does not necessarily correlate with the level of job openings or hiring. Internal company hiring and union hiring are often not captured by online ads. High ad volume often occurs for occupations/industries that are having difficulty finding qualified candidates, high turnover positions/recurring openings, or when companies are building large candidate pools. Online job postings should only be used with caution when developing/analyzing time series trends due to the constant changes in the rate of online advertising usage and in the methods used for collecting the data.

9 Employment and Labor Force Summary Nevada Employment By Industry (Estimates in Thousands) Nominal Change % Change Jun18 Jun17 May18 Annual Monthly YTD Annual Monthly YTD June 17 May June 17 May Total Nonfarm Employment % 0.0% 3.0% Goods Producing Industries % 2.4% 9.5% Natural Resources and Mining % 2.1% 3.1% Construction % 2.9% 7.9% Manufacturing % 1.5% 14.5% Service Providing Industries % -0.3% 2.2% Trade, Transportation & Utilities % -0.3% 2.4% Wholesale % 0.3% -0.7% Retail % -0.1% 1.3% Trans, Warehousing and Utilities % -1.0% 6.4% Information % 2.1% -2.6% Financial Activities % 0.6% 2.3% Finance and Insurance % 0.8% 1.0% Professional & Business Services % 0.6% 1.6% Education & Health Services % 0.1% 4.5% Health Care and Social Assistance % 0.2% 4.1% Leisure & Hospitality % 0.0% 0.7% Casino Hotels % -0.1% -1.2% Food Services and Drinking Places % 0.3% 2.0% Other Services % 1.2% 4.6% Government % -3.4% 3.7% Labor Force and Unemployment (Estimates in Thousands) Jun18 Jun17 May18 Annual Monthly YTD May 18 June 17 Nominal Change % Change Annual Monthly YTD June 17 May Total Labor Force % 0.2% 2.7% Unemployment % 6.4% -6.0% Unemployment Rate (NSA) 4.5% 5.3% 4.2% -0.8% 0.3% ** ** ** ** Unemployment Rate (SA) 4.7% 5.1% 4.8% -0.4% -0.1% ** ** ** ** Total Employment % -0.1% 3.2%

10 Employment and Labor Force Summary Las Vegas - Paradise (Estimates in Thousands) Nominal Change % Change Jun18 Jun17 May18 Annual Monthly YTD Annual Monthly YTD June 17 May June 17 May Total Nonfarm Employment % -0.3% 2.7% Goods Producing Industries % 1.8% 8.2% Natural Resources and Mining % 25.0% -4.0% Construction % 1.6% 9.7% Manufacturing % 2.1% 4.4% Service Providing Industries % -0.5% 2.2% Trade, Transportation & Utilities % -0.4% 2.7% Wholesale % 0.5% 0.2% Retail % -0.2% 1.8% Trans, Warehousing and Utilities % -1.3% 6.3% Information % 1.8% -4.1% Financial Activities % 0.8% 2.5% Finance and Insurance % 1.1% 1.5% Professional & Business Services % 0.6% 0.8% Education & Health Services % -0.1% 4.4% Health Care and Social Assistance % -0.1% 4.3% Leisure & Hospitality % 0.1% 0.7% Casino Hotels % 0.0% -0.8% Food Services and Drinking Places % 0.3% 1.9% Other Services % 1.8% 4.7% Government % -5.6% 5.2% Labor Force and Unemployment (Estimates in Thousands) Jun18 Jun17 May18 Annual Monthly YTD May 18 June 17 Nominal Change % Change Annual Monthly YTD June 17 May Total Labor Force % 0.0% 2.7% Unemployment % 6.9% -3.9% Unemployment Rate 4.7% 5.5% 4.4% -0.8% 0.3% ** ** ** ** Total Employment % -0.3% 3.1%

11 Employment and Labor Force Summary Reno - Sparks Employment By Industry (Estimates in Thousands) Nominal Change % Change Jun18 Jun17 May18 Annual Monthly YTD Annual Monthly YTD June 17 May June 17 May Total Nonfarm Employment % 0.2% 4.3% Goods Producing Industries % 4.0% 13.9% Natural Resources and Mining % 0.0% 5.9% Construction % 5.7% 2.2% Manufacturing % 2.5% 26.3% Service Providing Industries % -0.5% 2.7% Trade, Transportation & Utilities % 0.0% 2.4% Wholesale % 1.1% -0.9% Retail % 0.0% -0.3% Trans, Warehousing and Utilities % -0.5% 7.3% Information % 0.0% 0.8% Financial Activities % 0.0% 1.4% Finance and Insurance % 0.0% 0.3% Professional & Business Services % 0.3% 6.0% Education & Health Services % 0.4% 1.3% Leisure & Hospitality % 0.3% 2.1% Casino Hotels % 0.7% -1.1% Food Services and Drinking Places % 0.0% 6.1% Other Services % 1.5% 5.1% Government % -4.7% 2.3% Labor Force and Unemployment (Estimates in Thousands) Jun18 Jun17 May18 Nominal Change % Change Annual Monthly YTD Annual Monthly YTD June 17 May June 17 May Total Labor Force % 0.3% 3.3% Unemployment % 4.8% -5.8% Unemployment Rate 3.5% 4.3% 3.3% -0.8% 0.2% ** ** ** ** Total Employment % 0.1% 3.7%

12 Employment and Labor Force Summary Carson City Employment By Industry (Estimates in Thousands) % Change Jun18 Jun17 May18 Annual Monthly YTD Annual Monthly YTD June 17 May June 17 May Total Nonfarm Employment % 0.3% 3.6% Goods Producing Industries % 0.0% 10.5% Manufacturing % 0.0% 5.2% Service Providing Industries % 0.4% 2.5% Trade, Transportation & Utilities % 2.4% 3.3% Retail % 0.0% 2.6% Professional & Business Services % 0.0% 5.9% Leisure & Hospitality % 0.0% 5.2% Government % 0.0% 1.2% Labor Force and Unemployment (Estimates in Thousands) Jun18 Jun17 May18 Nominal Change Annual Monthly YTD June 17 May % Change Annual Monthly YTD June 17 May Total Labor Force % 0.5% 3.1% Unemployment % 1.7% 3.9% Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.7% 4.2% -0.4% 0.1% ** ** ** ** Total Employment % 0.5% 3.0%

13 Macroeconomic Fundamentals The Current Employment Statistics Program s seasonally adjusted payroll report shows that total nonfarm employment in the United States increased by 213,000 in June from the previous month. In June, Professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care added jobs, while employment in retail trade declined. During 2018:IIQ, employers added 630,000 jobs compared to 562,000 jobs added in 2017:IIQ. During the recession a total of 8.7 million jobs were lost in the United States. As the recovery unfolded (late 2010 to December 2017) a total of 16.6 jobs were added. Information from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey indicates that job openings stood at 6.6 million in May declined from April. Year-overyear job openings are up by 950,000. Total quits increased by 3.6 million in May; year-over-year quits are up by 334,000. Over the 12 months ending in May, hires totaled 65.6 million and separations 63.3 million, yielding a net employment gain of 2.3 million. According to the Current Population Survey, the unemployment rate stood at 4.0 percent in June, this is down from 4.4 percent a year ago. The number of unemployed was 6.6 million in June, down by 400,000 year-over-year. The long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was at 1.5 million in June, accounting for 22.5% of total unemployed. Year-over-year, the longterm unemployed is down by 186,000. job growth; thousands thousands of jobs U.S. Job Growth and Unemployment Rate ,000 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 job growth unemployment rate U.S. Job Hires and Job Separations (JOLTS) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% unemployment rate The Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1 advance estimate, released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, indicates that real GDP increased at an annual rate 2.3 percent in 2018:IQ. This is up from 1.2 percent growth rate in 2017:IQ. The GDP growth during 2018:IQ revealed increases contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, as well as federal and state and local government spending. These increases were partly offset by an up- 0 05' 06' 07' 08' 09' 10' 11' 12' 13' 14' 15' '16 '17 18 turn in private inventory investment. Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for more than 60 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, increased 1.1 percent in 2018:IQ, down from 1.9 percent in 2017:IQ. Consumer spending continues to drive the national economy s growth. An indicator that affects PCE is the real disposable hires separations net employment personal income 2 (DPI). Year-overyear real DPI increased 4.4 percent in 2018:IQ. The personal savings rate 3 reached 3.1 percent in 2018:IQ, down from 3.9 percent in 2017:IQ. ¹ The real Gross Domestic Product is defined as the value of the production of goods and services produced by the nation s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes. 2 Disposable personal income is personal income less personal tax receipts (federal income tax, state and local taxes, motor vehicle taxes, motor vehicle operator license fees, and other miscellaneous taxes). 3 The personal savings rate is defined as personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income.

14 Macroeconomic Fundamentals U.S. exports of goods and services increased 4.3 percent in 2018:IQ up from 3.1 percent in 2017:IQ. Imports of goods and services which reduce GDP, increased 4.2 percent in 2018:IQ, up from 3.8 percent in 2017:IQ U.S. Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board, 1985=100) After reviewing the outlook for economic activity, the labor market conditions, and the inflation readings, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at 1.50 to 1.75 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation. index (1985 = 100) The Conference Board s consumer confidence index 4 stood at in June, up from a year ago. The proportion of consumers indicating that jobs are plentiful was 40.0 percent in June. Consumers saying jobs are hard to get were 14.9 percent during same period. Consumer confidence is an important indicator of near-term economic growth because consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The consumer confidence index averaged during 2018:IIQ, compared to in 2017:IIQ. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that housing starts were up in May 2 percent from the previous month. Housing starts reached 1.4 million in May, up 228,000 from last year. Housing permits reached 1.3 million, up 47,000 from last year. During 2018:IQ housing starts totaled 3.9 million, up 6.5 percent from 2017:IQ. For the same period, housing construction permits totaled 4.1 million, up 7.9 percent. Home prices continue to rise. The Federal Housing Finance Agency s purchase-only index stood at in April 2018 (a record high), up from a year ago. Yearover-year, the index increased.06%. index 20 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 05' 06' 07' 08' 09' 10' 11' 12' 13' 14' 15' 16' 17' 18' U.S. Institute for Supply Management (Indexes) 0% '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 manufacturing index non-manufacturing index 4 The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a barometer of the health of the U.S. economy from the perspective of the consumer. The index is based on consumer's perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for the next six months regarding business conditions, employment, and income. A CCI above 90 is generally considered a good reading.

15 Macroeconomic Fundamentals Information from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that existing home sales 5 reached 4.8 million in May, down 3.0 percent from a year ago. The median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $267,500 up 5.2 percent a year ago ($254,300). The U.S. Census Bureau reported that sales of new single-family houses reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 689,000 in May, up 13.7 percent from May last year at 606,000 homes. The median sale price of new houses sold in May was $313,000 down from $323,600 a year ago. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the manufacturing index (PMI) 6 stood at 60.2 percent in June, up from 57.8 percent last year. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 17 reported growth in June. The non-manufacturing index (NMI) 7 stood at 59.1 percent in June, up from June last year reading at 57.4 percent. Of the 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in June. During 2018:IIQ the PMI index averaged 58.7 percent compared to 55.8 percent in 2017:IQ. The NMI averaged 58.2 percent during 2018:IIQ compared to 57.1 percent in 2017:IQ. - Marianne Segurson, Economist 5 Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. 6 The PMI is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector, also known as the ISM index. 7 The NMI is an indicator of the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector.

16 Trends at a Glance Industry Employment in April Over-the-Month Change Total seasonally adjusted jobs = 2,000 Las Vegas seasonally adjusted jobs = 400 Reno seasonally adjusted jobs = 700 Carson City seasonally adjusted jobs = 100 Nevada Nonfarm Jobs Seasonally Adjusted Change Expected Seasonally Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted Change Movement Change Total Nonfarm Jobs ,300 2,000 Private Sector 5,500 4,500 1,000 Public Sector -5,800-6,800 1,000 Las Vegas -3,000-3, Reno Carson City Annual Change 55,000 Nevada Job Growth (Seasonally Adjusted) 4.5% 1,377,800 non-farm jobs in March 50, % 37,600 jobs added over-the-year June marks 90 straight months of growth in Nevada. annual job growth (SA) 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20, % 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% annual percent change 15,000 10, % 5, % 0 J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 0.0% '16 '17 '18 jobs pct. change Annual Growth Nevada = 2.8 percent U.S. = 1.6 percent Growth in Nevada has exceeded that in the U.S. for 71 straight months. employment; annual percent change 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Job Growth: Nevada vs. U.S. (Year-Over-Year Percent Change; Seasonally Adjusted) -10% -12% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Nevada U.S.

17 Trends at a Glance Industry Employment in April Year-to-Date Growth Las Vegas MSA = 2.7 percent year-to-date Reno-Sparks MSA = 4.3 percent year-to-date Carson City = 3.7 percent year-to-date job growth; annual percentage change 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Job Growth by Region (Percent Change) Year-to-Date Change Manufacturing added 6,600 jobs, more than any other sector. 0.0% '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Manufacturing Construction Government Las Vegas Reno Carson City Job Growth by Industry (Year-to-Date) Ten sectors added jobs through May Total job growth = 39,400 jobs Education & Health Services Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Professional & Business Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Financial Activities Mining & Logging Information -1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 YTD job growth

18 Trends at a Glance Unemployment June Nevada = 4.7 percent; down 0.1 percentage point from May; down from 5.1 percent a year ago. U.S. = 4.0 percent; up 0.2 from May; down from 4.3 percent a year ago. 0.7 point gap between Nevada and the Nation compares to 4.4 points at the height of the recession. unemployment rate (SA) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Unemployment Rate: Nevada vs. U.S. (Seasonally Adjusted) 2% 0% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Nevada U.S. June (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Nevada = 4.5 percent; down 0.8 percentage point from June Las Vegas-Paradise MSA = 4.7 percent; down 0.8 percentage points from June Reno-Sparks MSA = 3.5 percent; down 0.8 percentage points from June Carson City = 4.3 percent; down 0.4 percentage point from June unemployment rate 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% Unemployment Rate by Metro Area 4.0% June (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Unemployment rates ranged from 5.6 percent (Mineral) to 2.5 percent (Eureka). Clark = 4.7 percent; Washoe = 3.5 percent; Carson City = 4.3 percent. 3.0% J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J '16 '17 '18 Las Vegas Reno Carson City Unemployment Rate by County Mineral Nye Lyon Esmeralda Clark Nevada Lincoln Carson City Storey Douglas Churchill Pershing White Pine Washoe Lander Humboldt Elko Eureka 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% unemployment rate April 2017