Economy In Brief. A Monthly Review of Workforce & Economic Information by the Research & Analysis Bureau-

Transcription

1 Economy In Brief A Monthly Review of Workforce & Economic Information by the Research & Analysis Bureau- Economic Summary Over the last several months, we have highlighted the volatility which can occur in the monthly estimates of labor market activity. In addition to the regular benchmark revisions which occur at year-end, designed to update the estimates based upon a more complete set of information, the preliminary headline job and unemployment rate barometers are subject to one-time monthly revisions coinciding with the release of the following month s information. For instance, we initially reported a 4,700 job gain in July. Revised estimates show a gain of 11,100 is estimated to have actually occurred. In other words, initial estimates were revised up by 6,400. This is a relatively large revision. Prior to this, during the fi rst six months of the year, revisions ranged from a decrease of 3,400 to an increase of 2,800. The largest revisions this year occurred within the last three months July s upward revision being the most signifi cant. Nevada gained employment for 68-consecutive months as of. Year-over-year, the Silver State added a seasonally adjusted 37,200 jobs over last year, for a growth rate of 2.9 percent. Further, annualized employment growth in the State exceeded national job gains for the 49 th consecutive month. Over the month, 4,800 jobs were added, seasonally adjusted. Although payrolls were expected to increase by 1,600 (not seasonally adjusted), a gain of 6,400 actually occurred, leading to the seasonally adjusted increase. Specifi cally, the private sector increased by 4,600 jobs and the public sector added 200 to payrolls. As noted above, although monthly employment estimates are always adjusted to some extent, it is possible for to realize a large revision with next month s release, considering the pattern in the last several months. The trade, transportation, and utilities sector realized the largest increase in terms of nominal growth during the fi rst eight months of 2015, adding 9,100 jobs year-todate, an increase of 3.8 percent relative to last year. In terms of percentage growth, construction continues to lead the industrial supersectors in terms of year-overyear job gains, up 9.4 percent over the same period, which equates to a gain of 6,400 jobs. Mining has consistently lost employment over the course of the year mining and logging continues to be the only supersector to contract, down 900 jobs, a loss of 5.9 percent, yearto-date. Losses in the mining sector can be largely attributed to the weakened gold prices over the last fi ve years. The Census Bureau s Local Employment Dynamics (LED) Program, among other things, allows for detailed demographic analyses of Nevada s workforce. In, we examine the workforce, by industry, of workers at least 45 years of age. As of mid-2015, the most- Economic Indicators UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Nevada* 6.3% Las Vegas MSA 6.0% Reno-Sparks MSA 4.9% Carson City MSA 6.0% United States* 4.9% JOB GROWTH (YOY) Nevada* 2.9% Las Vegas MSA* 2.9% Reno-Sparks MSA* 5.4% Carson City MSA* 1.1% United States* 1.7% GAMING WIN (YOY) July 2016 Nevada 10.0% Clark County 10.2% Washoe County 9.3% TAXABLE SALES (YOY) June 2016 Nevada 9.6% Clark County 10.1% Washoe County 12.3% Storey Carson Washoe Douglas Lyon Humboldt Pershing Churchill Mineral Less Than 5.0% *Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate by County Esmeralda Between 5.0% and 6.4% Between 6.5% and 7.9% Between 8.0 and 9.4% Greater Than or Equal to 9.5% Lander Nye Eureka Elko Clark White Pine Lincoln Nevada Nevada Workforce Workforce Informer, Informer, The Department The Department of of Employment, Training Training & & Rehabilitation

2 Nevada Economy in Brief Economic Summary recent information available, nearly 540,000 (44 percent) of the Silver State s 1.2 million workers were at least 45 years old. Older workers account for more than half of the workforce in three industries--education, government and transportation/warehousing. All told, those older than 45 represent 52 percent of the workforce in these establishments. This is up from 48 percent a decade ago. In Nevada s largest industries accommodation/food services, retail trade, and health care/social assistance 41 percent of the workforce is at least 45 years of age, slightly below the Statewide average. Nationally, 38 percent of the workers in these industries are 45+ years of age. At 36 percent, the share of workers at least 45 years of age in the retail trade industry is the smallest in the State. Other industries with relatively small shares are information and fi nance/insurance. As an aside, the manufacturing sector in Nevada is in store for unprecedented growth in the near future. The share of workers at least 45 years old in that sector is 49 percent, suggesting that workforce development efforts will likely play a crucial role in developing the talent pipeline to fi ll these positions. 44% of Workforce at Least 45 Years Old; 50%+ in Educ., Govt., & Trans./Warehousing 2015:IIIQ Nevada workforce by age Educational Services Public Administration Transportation/Warehousing Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing/Hunting Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Real Estate/Rental/Leasing Professional/Scientific/Technical Services Management of Companies/Enterprises Construction Mining/Quarrying/Oil/Gas Extraction Statewide Administrative/Support/Waste Health Care/Social Assistance Other Services Arts/Entertainment/Recreation Accommodation/Food Services Finance/Insurance Information Retail Trade 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Silver State Job Growth Stronger than in 40 Other States in IQ job growth rankings (# of states with slower private sector job growth than NV) With data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Program, we are able to assess Nevada s performance relative to other states (as well as the District of Columbia), during the pre-recessionary boom, through the downturn, and into the recovery. In the years preceding the economic downturn, Nevada led the country in private sector employment growth, with a growth rate of 6.4 percent in Conversely, during the recession, Nevada was the most affected state in terms of private sector employment growth. In fact, Nevada s employment growth was the lowest in the nation in 2009 (-10.1 percent) and 2010 (-2.8 percent). Nevada has gradually regained lost ground over the past fi ve years. In 2011, the private sector grew at a rate of 1.2 percent, 37 th in the nation; in 2012 we grew at a rate of 1.9 percent, 27 th in the nation; and in 2013, private sector growth continued this trend, growing at 2.7 percent, which placed the Silver State at 13 th in the nation. In 2014 Nevada had the second-fastest growing private sector in the nation, with a four percent growth rate; in 2015 we grew at a rate of 3.8 percent, third , , , , , , , , , '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 YTD Small Biz Jobs at All-Time High for IQ; Gains Recorded in Each of Past 21 Quarters employment in establishments with less than 100 workers '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 14

3 Nevada Economy in Brief Economic Summary in the nation. With data through fi rst quarter of 2016, we see that Nevada had the 11thfastest growing private sector in the nation, at 3.1 percent. The three leading states are Utah, Florida, and Idaho. An important gauge of the Silver State s economic health overall is small business employment. Prior to the recession, small business employment peaked at just over 585,000 in 2007:IVQ. Over the course of the downturn, jobs fell to 510,000. As of the fi rst quarter of 2016, employment in Nevada fi rms with less than 100 employees totaled 590,000. This is a decrease of nearly 6,300 from 2015:IVQ. This contraction can mostly be explained by the usual slowdown that occurs after the holidays. Despite the over-thequarter decline, 2016:IQ is still a record high for any fi rst quarter exceeding the previous record of 577,000 set last year. Further, yearover-year gains have been recorded in each of the past 21 quarters. The Occupational Employment Statistics wage survey provides detailed wage information for over 700 occupations in Nevada. This month, we examine wage disparities as a ratio of the 90 th percentile wage to the 10 th percentile, also called the ratio. A signifi cant wage disparity is represented by a large ratio. Protective service occupations had the highest ratio, with a disparity of four. This group is composed of 19 detailed occupations with average wages ranging from over $49 per hour (supervisors of police and detectives) to about $10 per hour (crossing guards). The building/grounds cleaning and maintenance major group had the lowest ratio, at just 2.2. The ten occupations in this group range from average wages of $26 per hour (landscaping supervisors) to $11 per hour (building cleaning workers). Management occupations have the highest mean hourly wage, at $47 per hour, and have one of the largest wage disparities. On the other hand, food preparation/serving related occupations have the lowest mean wage, at $12 per hour, and have a relatively small disparity in wages. These patterns suggest that larger skill and training differentials between the highest-paid and lowest-paid occupations in a group lead to a larger wage disparity across the entire group. Wage Disparity Differs Considerably Across Occupation Groups 2016 occupation wage ratios: 90th percentile wage/10th percentile Protective Service 4.0 Legal 4.0 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 4.0 Management 3.8 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 3.8 Sales and Related 3.5 Life, Physical, and Social Science 3.5 Transportation and Material Moving 3.2 Production 3.0 Computer and Mathematical 3.0 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 3.0 Construction and Extraction 2.9 Education, Training, and Library 2.9 Architecture and Engineering 2.9 Business and Financial Operations 2.9 Office and Administrative Support 2.8 Personal Care and Service 2.7 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 2.5 Community and Social Service 2.4 Food Preparation and Serving Related 2.3 Healthcare Support 2.3 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 New-Hire Earnings Approximately 2/3rds of Overall Average a Consistent Relationship new-hire monthly earnings vs. total average earnings $0 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Total Average Earnings New-Hire Earnings Earnings for Jobs Lost are Just Slightly Higher than Those for New Hires average monthly earnings for jobs lost vs. new-hire earnings $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 New-Hire Earnings Earnings for Jobs Lost

4 Nevada Economy in Brief Economic Summary New-hire wages can enhance our understanding of important labor market trends. The latest available information from the LED Program (through mid-2015) shows that average monthly earnings for all employees are just over $3,800. However, new-hire wages hover slightly above $2,600 (approximately 70 percent of that for all workers). This certainly supports the theory that long-term employees are paid more as a group than those with less seniority on the job. Looking at trends over the past several years, newhire wages consistently total about two-thirds of the overall average. This relationship has held steady over time. Since 2006, the new-hire/total wage ratio has fl uctuated in a very narrow range between 60 percent and 75 percent. Since the labor market recovery began in 2010, wages have been trending up the overall average is up nine percent, compared to an increase of seven percent for new hires. As of late, there has been much debate about the quality of new jobs being generated in Nevada, and, for that matter, throughout the nation. In order to answer these questions, we have analyzed a number of resources. As we will discuss further in this Overview, information from the Current Population Survey (CPS) suggests that employment growth in Nevada is concentrated in full-time positions (see below). Using information from DETR s Silver State Solutions Initiative, we established the vast majority of online ads, roughly 90 percent, are for full-time jobs. Utilizing data from Unemployment Insurance records submitted by Nevada employers, we found wages, on average, are on the rise. Finally, we examined industries adding or losing jobs, and found a minimal difference in wages across these two groups. Looked at in a new way, according to LED, in 2015:IQ new-hire earnings for employees were just over $2,300 a month. Earnings for those jobs that are lost in the economy (job separations, whether voluntary or involuntary) paid just a bit above $2,500 during the same quarter. This difference represents a continuation of a structural trend evident over time. LED information points to just a marginal wage trade-off between those jobs be- Vast Majority of Employment Growth Concentrated in Full-Time Positions FT vs. PT employment; (12-month moving average) 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Full-Time Part-Time The Jobless Rate for Vets has been Lower than the Total Rate During the Recovery unemployment rate for Nevada Vets vs. total (12-month moving average) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Total Rate Veterans' Rate 70,000 68,000 66,000 64,000 62,000 60,000 58,000 56,000 54,000 52,000 At Nearly 68K, # of Employers at Record High; Up vs. Yr.- Ago in 20 Straight Qtrs. number of Nevada employers 50,000 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

5 Nevada Economy in Brief Economic Summary ing added in Nevada, and those jobs that are lost. Some have argued that the quality of jobs being generated in Nevada of late leaves something to be desired. It seems that, all too often, these arguments suggest that good, high-paying jobs are being lost, while the new jobs are part-time, low-wage positions. Available evidence, including from the LED Program, does not support this characterization. At most, there appears to be a minimal trade-off. Although available information cannot confi rm this, the fi ndings reported above suggest that much of the labor market churn, both new jobs added and existing jobs lost, appears to take place at the lower end of the relative pay scale. Trust Fund On Pace to Reach $1B in Mid-2018; Currently 60% of Adequate Balance UI Trust Fund balance: actual vs. recommended (millions of $) $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 -$500 -$1,000 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Furthering our discussion of job quality indicators in the Silver State, prior to the economic downturn, the number of Nevadans employed full-time topped out at nearly 1.1 million. At this peak level, full-time employment represented about 83 percent of the total. Silver State residents employed parttime numbered approximately 225,000. During the recession, full-time employment fell to almost 830,000, for a cyclical decline of more than 230,000. As would be expected in times of economic uncertainty, part-time employment actually rose, resulting in a gain of nearly 90,000 positions between mid-2006 and mid-2011, totaling over 300,000 jobs. Since the economic trough, full-time employment has risen steadily in, employees with full-time status totaled a little over 1,000,000, a gain of 170,000 from recessionary lows. The number of Nevadans employed on a part-time basis, on the other hand, has held steady over the past four years, reaching 310,000 in. While there is still room from improvement, Nevada employment gains have been concentrated in fulltime positions during the economy recovery. Currently, 76.4 percent of total employment is full-time, while part-time positions accounts for 23.6 percent. With data generated via the Labor Insight tool offered by Burning Glass Technologies, a supplier of real-time labor market information, we can assess another aspect of the health of the State s economy by looking at trends in online job ads via DETR s Silver Actual/Projected Balance State Solutions Initiative. Yearto-Date end-, there were 151,200 online job postings in Nevada. This is an 11.5 percent increase from the same time period last year. For those job ads specifying work hours, 89 percent were for full-time positions. The underlying trend of steady growth in online job postings is continuing. As would be expected with the employment increase in, the unemployment rate decreased over the month, down 0.2 percentage point from July, to a seasonally adjusted 6.3 percent. Additionally, for the 66 th consecutive month, the unemployment rate in the Silver State decreased on a year-over-year basis, down 0.3 percentage point over last year. Comparing to the nation, the unemployment rate in the United States as a whole has held steady for three consecutive months, at a seasonally adjusted 4.9 percent. Information from the monthly CPS, allows us to highlight the labor market status of the Silver State s veteran population. At its peak in mid- Recommended/Adequate Balance 2011, the veteran s unemployment rate stood at 14.7 percent slightly higher than the peak rate for total unemployment, which was 14.4 percent at the end of However, since 2012, unemployment rates for veterans have been notably lower than the total rate. In, veterans have an unemployment rate of 5.1 percent (expressed as a 12-month moving average), down from 6.2 percent a year ago. In comparison, the total unemployment rate is 6.3 percent this month, a 0.9 percentage point decrease from last year. Initial claims for unemployment insurance continued to decline in, falling nearly seven percent from of 2015, to just under 11,000 claims. This is the 17thconsecutive month of year-overyear declines in initial claims. Other measures of activity also continue to improve, with the exhaustion rate falling to 38.4 percent and the average duration of benefi ts falling to 14.2 weeks. The declines in these measures have helped reduce the average benefi ts paid per month over the last year to $25.5 million

6 Nevada Economy in Brief Economic Summary per month, the low-est level seen since November of Initial claims activity is expected to be stable over the next few months before seasonally rising over the winter. From the recessionary low of 56,000 employers, Nevada has seen the number of businesses in the Nevada unemployment insurance system grow by 11,500 (20.5 percent). In the second quarter of 2016, the number of employers totaled 67,500, an increase of 590 employers, or 0.9 percent, from 2016:IQ. In fact, Nevada has set a new record number of employers for seven consecutive quarters. On a year-overyear basis, the number of employers in the Silver State increased by 4,900, or 7.9 percent. Additionally, year-overyear, employer totals have increased for the last 20 quarters. While the year-over-year growth in employers is relatively substantial, it is partially attributable to an amendment made to NRS 616B.691, which required client companies, who lease employees from Professional Employer Organizations (PEOs), to be tracked individually in Nevada s unemployment insurance system. However, the impact of this statute change was primarily seen in 2015:IVQ and 2016:IQ. amount, the state has an AHCM less than 1.0. At the end of the second quarter of 2016, Nevada s AHCM was 0.56, as the State s Trust Fund balance of $575.7 million was below the $1.03 billion required to have an ACHM of 1.0 With that said, we can address when expect the Trust Fund to reach the AHCM adequacy level. Assuming continued stability in both the UI tax rate and benefi t payments, the UI Trust Fund balance will likely reach the $1 billion mark in the second quarter of The AHCM would also hit 1.0 in that quarter the fi rst time that Nevada s UI Trust Fund would have a multiple of at least 1.0 since While having an AHCM of 1.0 is marked improvement, this is the minimum recommended balance level for a Trust Fund. In a deep recession, even a Trust Fund with an AHCM of 1.0 may not withstand the total benefi t outlay a fact which lead some states (such as Utah and Oregon) to opt for even higher Trust Fund balances. - Chelsea Walburg, Economist As Nevada s Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund continues to recover from the effects of the recession, the question that arises is: when will the Fund have enough to be considered adequate? Prior to addressing the when, we fi rst have to determine the Fund balance which would be considered adequate. The most widely used method of understanding UI Trust Fund adequacy is the Average High Cost Multiple (AHCM), which uses the product of total wages and the average of the three highest benefi t cost rates over the last 20 years to provide an estimate of the balance required to cover a year s worth of benefi t payments during an economic downturn. If a state s Trust Fund balance is less than this

7 Nevada Economy in Brief Sub-State Economic Summary Nevada realized encouraging employment growth in, with a seasonally adjusted gain of 4,800 jobs Statewide from July. This growth was concentrated in the two largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), Las Vegas and Reno/Sparks. Las Vegas employment increased by 5,300 jobs, the result of a 5,500 increase in payrolls (not adjusted for seasonality) when an increase of 200 jobs was expected. Reno/Sparks gained a seasonally adjusted 1,000 jobs after experiencing a nominal jump in payrolls of 1,800, when only 800 new jobs were expected. In Carson City, payrolls decreased by 200 when the expected seasonal change was a decrease of 100. As a result, the State capital employment levels have a seasonally adjusted loss of 100 jobs. Year-over-year employment growth was positive for all three of the Silver State s largest population centers. Las Vegas grew at 2.9 percent, the same rate as the State as a whole. This growth translates to 26,400 new jobs in Las Vegas since of last year. Specifi - cally, goods-producing industries added 7,200 jobs and service providers added 19,100¹. Reno/Sparks employment grew at 5.4 percent over the year, amounting to 11,400 new jobs. Service providers added 10,200 jobs in the area and goods-producing industries increased payrolls by 900. Finally, Carson City added 300 jobs since 2015, a growth rate of 1.1 percent. Service-providing industries gained 600 jobs over the period while goods-producing industries lost 200. Statewide, 37,200 new jobs were gained over the year. While monthly employment numbers come from the Current Employment Statistics program, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) provides a more comprehensive, but less timely, count of employment and wage data for workers covered by Nevada unemployment insurance laws. County-level QCEW information for this year s fi rst quarter shows that job growth ranges from -7.1 percent (Lander) to 33.1 percent (Mineral). Mineral s high growth rate is due in part to the area s relatively low overall population, and ¹ References to total MSA employment are adjusted for seasonality, whereas references to goods-producing and service-providing industries are not. Mineral and Storey Have Highest Job Growth Rates in 2016:IQ 2015:IQ-2016:IQ job growth by county Mineral Storey Lincoln Washoe Nevada Clark Eureka Douglas Churchill Elko Carson City Nye Esmeralda Lyon Pershing White Pine Humboldt Lander -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Eureka/Lander/Humboldt Pay Highest Weekly Wages in Nevada 2016:IQ average weekly wages Eureka Lander Humboldt White Pine Pershing Esmeralda Nye Elko Nevada Clark Storey Washoe Carson City Mineral Churchill Douglas Lyon Lincoln $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 9 of 17 Counties Realize Pay Increases from 2015:IQ to 2016:IQ change in average weekly wage by county Storey Lander Eureka Mineral Douglas Clark Nevada Nye Churchill Washoe Humboldt Elko Lincoln Esmeralda Lyon White Pine Carson City Pershing -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%

8 Nevada Economy in Brief Sub-State Economic Summary represents an increase of 390 jobs over the year. Statewide, job growth came in at three percent. Eleven of the 17 counties experienced growth over the past year, while six (Lander, Humboldt, White Pine, Pershing, Lyon, and Esmeralda) experienced a decrease in employment. All three of the Silver State s major population centers realized employment gains during the time period. Job growth in Clark County is just slightly below the State average, at 2.9 percent. Washoe County employment experienced faster growth than the Silver State, at 4.6 percent. Data from QCEW also show that Nevada had an average weekly wage of $875 during the fi rst quarter of 2016, an increase of 1.1 percent from a year earlier. Across the counties, weekly wages range from $650 (Lincoln) to $2,200 (Eureka). Besides Eureka, the only counties with payrolls above $1,000 per week are Lander, Humboldt, and White Pine at $1,600, $1,100, and $1,000 respectively. This can be attributed to the high concentration of gold ore mining jobs in these counties. Counties with the highest growth rates from a year earlier were Storey (7.4 percent), Lander (2.8 percent), and Eureka (2.5 percent). The lowest growth rates were found in Pershing (-4.2 percent), Carson (-3.3 percent), and White Pine (-2.8 percent). As for Nevada s major population centers, Clark County weekly wages increased 1.5 percent from 2015:Q1, to $870, just below the State average. Carson City wages fell to $850, while Washoe County grew by 0.4 percent (also at $850), right below the average weekly wage for the Silver State as a whole. The Census Bureau s Local Employment Dynamics (LED) Program offers insight into underlying trends by producing a collection of enhanced labor market statistics. Among other things, LED information allows for a comparison of new-hire wages to average wages. Statewide, newly hired workers tend to earn about Nine Counties Exceed 70% of New-Hire Average Wage new-hire monthly average wage by county Eureka Mineral Esmeralda Storey Pershing Elko Lander Humboldt Lyon White Pine Douglas Clark Churchill Nevada Nye Carson City Washoe Lincoln two-thirds of the average for all workers. Within Nevada, new-hire earnings in every county are below the overall average. Lincoln has the lowest ratio, with newly hired workers earning only 60 percent of the overall average wage. The highest newhire earnings are found in Eureka, at $5,400 per month. This is about 90 percent of the overall average of $6,100/month. All told, new-hire earnings in ten counties slightly exceed 70 percent of the overall average. Taken as a whole, these fi ndings support the fact that longer-term employees, as a group, are paid more than those with less seniority on the job. This month, initial claims for unemployment insurance on a county level largely refl ect the declining trend seen statewide. Through, 14 of Nevada s 17 counties have seen year-to-date declines in initial claims. Nominally, the largest declines have unsurprisingly been in Clark (-5,500) and Washoe (-1,700), though Churchill, Elko, and Lyon have all experienced year-to-date declines of more than 11 percent. Only Esmeralda and Pershing have seen minimal year-to-date increases in the number 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% of initial claims. In, unemployment rates were down in all of the State s major population centers, both on a month-overmonth basis and over the year². Carson City and Las Vegas both were home to unemployment rates of six percent, down 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively, from July. Carson City unemployment is down one percentage point from this time last year, while Las Vegas unemployment has decreased 0.8 percentage point over the same period. Reno/Sparks unemployment is down 0.5 percentage point from last month, at 4.9 percent, and down 1.1 percentage points from of 2015, making this month the fi rst time the rate has fallen below fi ve percent since the end of Unemployment rates are down across all 17 counties in Nevada this month, from a low of 4.4 percent in Elko to a high of 8.5 percent in Mineral. Esmer- ² The State s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 6.3 percent in, down from 6.5 percent in July and down from 6.6 percent in Unemployment rates for the State s metropolitan areas and counties reported here are not adjusted for seasonality. Hence, comparisons to the State s seasonally adjusted rate should be avoided. Legitimate comparisons, however, can be made to the State s unadjusted rate 5.8 percent in, down from 6.5 percent in July and down from 6.7 percent in 2015.

9 Nevada Economy in Brief Sub-State Economic Summary alda, Mineral, and Lander experienced the largest month-over-month drops in unemployment, each decreasing the jobless rate by one percentage point or more in. Esmeralda, with the largest drop of 1.6 percentage point, joins Elko and White Pine counties with the lowest unemployment rates in the State. Mineral experienced the second largest drop in unemployment since July but continues to have the highest rate overall, and is also joined by Nye and Lyon with unemployment rates over seven percent. Year-to-date, online job posting activity³ is up in 16 of 17 counties. Clark County continues to experience the largest increase with 103,200 total jobs ads this year, a net gain of 5,600 ads over this time last year. Washoe also realized signifi cant growth in postings, with a year-to-date increase of 4,600 ads, a total of 27,400 postings. Carson City has shown impressive growth with 1,500 more job ads this year than in 2015, bringing the State capital s total to 5,400 ads. Pershing is the only county to receive less job ads year-todate than in 2015, with 200 posts, a defi cit of 20 compared to last year. - Hayley Smith-Kirkham, Economist ³ The Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation is a client of Burning Glass Technologies. Among other things, Burning Glass has developed a number of tools to assist a variety of workforce development entities in efforts to match workers with jobs. Online job posting information is available via their Labor Insight tool.

10 Industrial Employment Total seasonally adjusted jobs = 4,800 Las Vegas seasonally adjusted jobs = 5,300 Reno seasonally adjusted jobs = 1,000 Carson City seasonally adjusted jobs = -100 Nevada Nonfarm Jobs Seasonally Adjusted Change Expected Seasonally Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted Change Movement Change Total Nonfarm Jobs 6,400 1,600 4,800 Private Sector 5, ,600 Public Sector 1,200 1, Las Vegas 5, ,300 Reno 1, ,000 Carson City ,000 Nevada Job Growth (Seasonally Adjusted) 4.5% 1,301,300 non-farm jobs 50, % 37,200 jobs added over-the-year marks 68 straight months of growth in Nevada. jobs 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10, % 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% percent change 5, % 0 S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 0.0% '14 '15 '16 Jobs Pct. Change Nevada = 2.9 percent U.S. = 1.7 percent Growth in Nevada has exceeded that in the U.S. for 49 straight months. 6% 4% 2% 0% Job Growth: Nevada vs. U.S. (Year-Over-Year Percent Change; Seasonally Adjusted) -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Nevada U.S.

11 Industrial Employment Las Vegas MSA = 2.6 percent year-to-date Reno-Sparks MSA = 4.2 percent year-to-date Carson City = -0.4 percent year-to-date 5% 4% 3% 2% Job Growth by Region (Percent Change) 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 YTD Las Vegas Reno Carson City Trade, Transportation/Utilities added 9,100 jobs, more than any other sector. Nine sectors added jobs through ; mining/ logging was the only sector to contract. Total job growth = 32,800 jobs Trade/Transportation/Utilities Construction Education/Health Services Professional/Business Services Leisure/Hospitality Job Growth by Industry (Year-to-Date) Government Financial Activities Manufacturing Other Services Mining/Logging -2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

12 Unemployment Nevada = 6.3 percent; down 0.2 percentage point from July; down from 6.6 percent a year ago. U.S. = 4.9 percent; unchanged from July; down from 5.1 percent a year ago. 1.4 point gap between Nevada and the Nation compares to 4.4 points at the height of the recession. 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% Unemployment Rate: Nevada vs. U.S. (Seasonally Adjusted) 4% 2% 0% '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Nevada U.S. (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Nevada = 6.3 percent; down 0.3 percentage point from Las Vegas-Paradise MSA = six percent; down 0.8 percentage point from Reno-Sparks MSA = 4.9 percent; down 1.1 percentage point from Carson City = six percent; down one percentage point from % 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% Unemployment Rate by Metro Area 5% 4% S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A '14 '15 '16 Las Vegas Reno Carson City (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Unemployment rates ranged from 8.5 percent (Mineral) to 4.4 percent (Elko). Clark = six percent; Washoe = 4.9 percent; Carson City = six percent. Mineral Nye Lyon Clark Pershing Carson City Lander Storey Nevada Churchill Humboldt Lincoln Douglas Eureka Washoe Esmeralda White Pine Elko Unemployment Rate by County 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

13 Unemployment Nevada Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims and Exhaustion Rate Initial claims = 11,000 Exhaustion rate (the percentage of unemployment insurance claimants who exhausted UI benefi ts prior to fi nding a job) = 38.4 percent. 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 0% Initial Claims 12-Month Moving Average Exhaustion Rate

14 Demographics of the Unemployed Male unemployment rate = 6.5 percent; down 0.2 percentage point from July; down 0.7 percentage point from a year ago. Female unemployment rate = 6.2 percent; down 0.2 percentage point from July; down one percentage point from a year ago. 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Unemployment Rate by Gender (12-Month Moving Average) 2% 1% 0% Male Female 2015 White unemployment rate = 5.3 percent; down 0.4 percentage point from July; down 1.2 percentage points from a year ago. Black unemployment rate = 12.5 percent; up 0.3 percentage point from July; down 1.1 percentage points from a year ago. Hispanic unemployment rate = 6.8 percent; down 0.6 percentage point from July, up 0.8 percentage point from a year ago. 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Unemployment Rate by Ethnicity (12-Month Moving Average) 2% 0% White Black Hispanic 2015 Age unemployment rate = 11.5 percent; down 0.1 percentage point from July; down 1.6 percentage points from a year ago. Age unemployment rate = 5.8 percent; down 0.3 percentage point from July; down 2.2 percentage points from a year ago. Age unemployment rate = 4.8 percent; unchanged rom July; down 1.1 percentage points from a year ago. Age unemployment rate = 5.8 percent; down 0.4 percentage point from July; unchanged from a year ago. Age 55+ unemployment rate = 5.6 percent; down 0.4 percentage point from July; up 0.2 percentage point from a year ago. 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Unemployment Rate by Age Group (12-Month Moving Average) Age Age Age Age Age

15 Demographics of the Unemployed Veteran unemployment rate = 5.1 percent; down 0.2 percentage point from July; down 1.1 percentage points from a year ago. 7% 6% 5% Unemployment Rate by Veterans Status (12-Month Moving Average) 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2015

16 Economic Indicators July $1,200 Nevada Gross Gaming Win (Millions of Dollars) Gross gaming win = $1.02 billion Up ten percent year-over-year; up 1.5 percent year-to date over $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Gaming Win 12-Month Moving Average June Taxable sales = $4.87 billion Up 9.6 percent year-over-year $5,500 $5,000 $4,500 Statewide Taxable Sales (Millions of Dollars) $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Taxable Sales 12-Month Moving Average July 3,828,000 visitors 92,100 visitor increase from prior year (2.5 percent); up 1.7 percent year-to-date over ,900,000 3,700,000 3,500,000 Las Vegas Visitor Volume 3,300,000 3,100,000 2,900,000 2,700,000 2,500,000 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Visitor Volume 12-Month Moving Average

17 Economic Indicators July 475,800 visitors 14,500 visitor increase from prior year (3.1 percent); up 3.9 percent year-to-date over , ,000 Reno Visitor Volume 400, , , ,000 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Visitor Volume 12-Month Moving Average

18 Real-Time Labor Market Information For every job posting there are 5.4 unemployed persons, down from 5.7 in Unemployed per Online Job Posting Unemployed Per Posting 12-Month Moving Average Jobs became available at a rate of 1.24 percent, indicating employment prospects are trending up. The job openings rate is the ratio of the number of online job postings to the sum of job postings and employment. 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% Job Openings Rate 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Job Openings Rate 12-Month Moving Average For occupations earning above-average wages, Medical and Health Services Managers have the highest job openings rate. Medical and Health Services Managers Computer Occupations, All Other Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products Occupations with Above Average Wages Job Openings Rates for Online Postings Registered Nurses Human Resources Specialists Software Developers, Applications Managers, All Other Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Accountants and Auditors Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

19 Real-Time Labor Market Information: Spotlight on Nevada Nevada online job postings total 16,800; up from 18,400 a year ago. 25,000 20,000 Nevada Job Postings 15,000 10,000 5, Job Postings 12-Month Moving Average The industries with the most postings are traveler accommodation and general medical/surgical hospitals. Traveler Accommodation General Medical and Surgical Hospitals Business Support Services Top Industries Insurance Carriers Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools Restaurants and Other Eating Places Gambling Industries Department Stores Residential Building Construction ,200 1,600 2,000 Job Postings The top occupations in demand are registered nurses, followed by sales representatives. Registered Nurses Sales Representatives for Wholesale/ Manufacturing, except technical/scientific products Top Occupations in Demand Retail Salespersons Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Customer Service Representatives First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers All Other Managers Hand Laborers for Freight/Stock/Material Movers General Maintenance and Repair Workers Cooks, Restaurants ,000 1,200 Job Postings

20 CBER-DETR Nevada Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes July The Nevada Coincident Employment Index measures the ups and downs of the Nevada economy using an index of employment variables. The peak of the last employment cycle in Nevada occurred in March The coincident index then regressed steadily through October 2009, where it bottomed out. The July release tells a consistent, positive story for both the coincident and leading indexes on a year-overyear basis. For the coincident index, the unemployment rate (inverted), household employment, nonfarm employment, and the insured unemployment rate (inverted) all moved in a positive direction. For the coincident index, the insured unemployment rate (inverted), the unemployment rate (inverted), nonfarm employment, and household employment all moved in a positive direction. CBER-DETR Nevada Coincident Employment Index '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Recessions Coincident Index July The Nevada Leading Employment Index measures the ups and downs of the Nevada economy, providing a signal about the future direction of the coincident index. For the current employment recession, the leading index provided a clear signal by peaking in January 2006, fourteen months before the coincident index reached its peak, and reached a bottom in May 2009, fi ve months before the coincident index reached its bottom. For the leading index, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), housing permits, commercial permits, the short-duration unemployment rate (inverted), construction employment, and the real Moody s Baa bond rate (inverted) all moved in a positive direction. For the leading index, the short-duration unemployment rate (inverted), the real Moody s Baa bond rate (inverted), commercial permits, housing permits, and initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) moved in a positive direction, while construction employment moved in a negative direction. CBER-DETR Nevada Leading Employment Index '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Recessions Leading Index

21 Economy In Brief Research & Analysis Bureau The Nevada Economy in Brief provides a wealth of Nevada workforce and economic information and is published monthly by the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation / Research and Analysis Bureau. Material contained in this publication is produced in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor (the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Employment and Training Administration) and may be reproduced without permission. Please credit the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. For additional workforce or other economic information, a free subscription to the Nevada Economy in Brief, or to change your address, please contact the Research and Analysis Bureau. Don Soderberg, Director Bill Anderson, Chief Economist Christopher Robison, Supervising Economist Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau Phone: (775) Fax: (775) detrlmi@nvdetr.org nevadaworkforce.com nevadajobconnect.com nvdetr.org nvcis.intocareers.org Please recycle nevadaworkforce.com Follow us on NVLaborMarket