Appendix A ~ Population and Employment Forecasts

Transcription

1 Appendix A ~ Population and Employment Forecasts Special Note: The city of Keizer completed and adopted an Economic Opportunity Analysis (EOA) and Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) in Both studies identified a short fall of buildable land within Keizer s portion of the urban growth boundary to accommodate projected population and employment growth over the next 20 years. The city of Keizer is currently in the process of addressing those land use issues. In addition, the city of Salem started a local EOA and HNA which is expected to be completed and adopted in The forecasts developed for the RTSP use the best available local information including a parcel level land use inventory, building permit information, local current comprehensive plans, as well as input from planning staff. The RTSP forecast is applying a longterm forecast to existing adopted comprehensive plans at historic densities and employment categories. These forecasts are allocated to a parcel level for use in transportation modeling programs. No land use changes were made in anticipation of EOA or HNA results, though, source data from the studies was incorporated, if applicable. The RTSP forecast is updated every four years in order to use the most recent planning information, in the future this may well include changes made as a result of both EOA and HNA studies. The SKATS MPO staff will continue to monitor local studies so that the next RTSP forecast can include the latest adopted planning information. Introduction The purpose of a population and employment forecast is to assist in planning for land use, transportation, infrastructure, and other needs of the metropolitan area. Forecasts are as good as the data and assumptions they are based on and require updates as new information becomes available. Population and employment in the SKATS area has shown cycles of growth over the decades. During the 1970s, the population grew by almost 50 percent, while growth slowed considerably in the 1980s. The 1990s saw another population surge of over 40,000 persons; and since the year 2000, the population increased by over 25,000 persons. Trends will likely show an eventual slowing of growth as the region develops more of the remaining land within the existing urban growth boundary. This appendix begins with a description of population growth during the last two decades for Oregon, Marion and Polk Counties, and the cities in the two counties. County population projections from Marion County s SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A A 1

2 coordinated forecast, as prepared by the Population and Research Center at Portland State University (PSU PRC) in 2008, are reported. This is followed by a focus on historical population change in the Salem Keizer UGB (Urban Growth Boundary) and the population and employment forecasts for the UGB and SKATS area. These population and employment forecasts will be used as the control totals to be allocated within the Salem Keizer UGB and SKATS area. The process used to allocate housing and employment forecasts to taxlots within Salem, Keizer, Turner, and the remaining areas of SKATS is also summarized in this chapter. State and County Population Growth, 1990 to 2013 Population data from the 1990, 2000, and 2010 US decennial census for Marion and Polk Counties and the state of Oregon is illustrated in Table A 1. For 2013, population estimates from the Population Research Center are used. The population for the two counties increased approximately 44 percent from 1990 to 2013 compared to the state s growth of about 38 percent. The average annual growth rate for the two counties combined was 1.9 percent, slightly higher than for the state as a whole. The Population Research Center also estimates migration, births, and deaths at the county level. Since 2000, migration has accounted for 39 percent of growth for Polk and Marion Counties combined, less than the state average of 61 percent, as illustrated in Table A 2. For Marion County alone, the rate is lower at 35 percent. A 2 SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A

3 From 2000 to 2013, the population of the Salem Keizer metropolitan area has grown at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent, similar to Medford, and slightly less than the Portland Vancouver Beaverton area. Comparison of population growth rates since 2000 for the Salem metropolitan statistical areas (Marion and Polk Counties) with those of the Portland Vancouver, Eugene, Medford, and Corvallis metropolitan statistical are as is illustrated in Figure A 1. SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A A 3

4 Comparison of the 2000 to 2013 population growth of many cities in Marion and Polk Counties is illustrated in Figure A 2 and Table A 3. The rates of growth or decline are quite varied especially those communities with smaller populations. The population in the Salem Keizer Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) area grew 13 percent from 2000 to 2010 (only a 2010 population is available). A 4 SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A

5 Marion County Coordinated Forecasts to 2030 In 2009, Marion County adopted a coordinated population forecast to 2030 for the county, its cities, the Marion County portion of the Salem Keizer Urban Growth Boundary, and unincorporated Marion County. These forecasts were conducted by Portland State University s Population Research Center and reviewed and adopted by the cities. In addition to the adopted forecast numbers, supplemental data was created with low, medium, and high growth scenarios for the county s largest cities and for the geographic areas making up the Salem Keizer Urban Growth Boundary. These tables also provided 5 year growth rates and totals for all cities in the county. The full report prepared by the Population Research Center is available on Marion County s website. These forecasts have been used as a basis for several planning studies in the area since 2009, including the Regional EOA and HNA, Keizer s EOA and HNA, and are part of the ongoing Salem EOA and HNA. Due to their widespread use as source data, they are included here for reference. Adopted figures are shown in Table A 4. Supplemental data is in Tables A 5. SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A A 5

6 Salem Keizer Urban Growth Boundary Area Historical population growth in the Salem Keizer Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) from 1950 to 2010 is illustrated in Table A 6. Prior to the creation of SKATS and the UGB in the 1970s, planning studies discussed the population of the Salem urbanized area, which included the city of Salem plus the surrounding closely settled unincorporated areas that meet certain criteria of population size and density. Planning documents from the 1970s and 1980s were reviewed for historical population values. The Salem urbanized area population numbers illustrated in Table A 6 are a reasonable equivalent to the Salem Keizer UGB. The 2000 population estimate for the Salem Keizer UGB was calculated in May 2001 using data from 2000 Census block data. The 2010 population estimate for the Salem Keizer UGB was similarly calculated from 2010 Census block data. During the economic recession in the 1980s, Salem s annual average population growth rate dropped to 1.5 percent mirroring a similar drop in the population growth rate for Marion County, Polk County, and Oregon (Table A 6). During the 1990s, the Salem Keizer population average growth rate increased to 2.4 percent per year, which was higher than the state s rate of growth. The decade of 2000 to 2010 had a Salem Keizer average growth rate of 1.2 percent, equal to the state s rate of growth but lower than the high growth of the previous decade. The great recession which began in 2007 was a contributing factor to slower growth as it had been in the 1980s. A 6 SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A

7 The city of Turner was added to the SKATS planning area as part of the Transportation Management Area (TMA) boundary expansion adopted by the SKATS Policy Committee in Turner s population from 1950 to 2010 is illustrated in Table A 6. Turner experienced a decrease in population from 1990 to However, since the construction of the city s sanitary sewage system in June 2000, there has been a population increase in Turner. The city of Turner also completed a comprehensive plan update to allow residential use of the former aggregate operation in the north of the city. The 2010 Census population for Turner is 1,854 persons, a 655 person (55 percent) increase since the year The SKATS TMA boundary was again expanded and adopted in 2013 as a result of the 2010 decennial census. The new boundary now includes the community of Brooks and a residential area in the southeast just north of Highway 22 E. Building permit activity in the Salem Keizer UGB from 1980 to 2013 is charted in Figure A 3. The area experienced a low of 129 building permits in 1985, and construction peaked in the mid 1990s. In looking at the numbers since 2000 only, the peak year of development was 2004 with 1,465 permits issued. The recession and financial crisis that began in 2007 is reflected in a drop of permits issued over the period from 2007 to As of 2013, total permits once again are above 500 issued for the year. SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A A 7

8 Salem Keizer Group Quarters Population The Salem Keizer area has 4.7 percent of its population in group quarters, approximately 60 percent of those living in group quarters are institutionalized persons, and 40 percent are living group quarters such as dormitories and group homes. Census group quarters population by type is outlined in Table A 7. There have been variations in the categorization of group populations and the way in which data was collected with each of the decennial censuses. Therefore, some values are zero in the table depending on the year. The total number of people in group quarters stayed relatively constant between 2000 and 2010, though the numbers shifted between institutions and group living. Some of this shift is attributed to the differences in the reporting between 2000 and 2010, and part is due to a decrease of residents at the Oregon State Hospital. Salem Keizer UGB Population Forecast Methodology and Control Total In 2013, SKATS formed a Forecast Working Group comprised of members of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) to help coordinate and update the 2035 population and employment forecasts and allocations. Discussions with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), con irmed that for the 2015 RTSP update, the same forecast horizon year of the previous RTSP (2011) was acceptable to use again. This is based on the expected adoption of the plan in Therefore, some key elements of these forecasts are the same as those of the 2011 RTSP; primarily the overall target population number for the Salem Keizer area within the Urban Growth Boundary remains the same, and is built directly on projections from the 2009 Marion County Coordinated forecasts. The population target for the Salem Keizer UGB is 316,479 for the year Work began on allocating the population within Salem and Keizer with this initial target. A 8 SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A

9 As a basis for the forecast work, the housing and land use inventory in SKATS Geographic Information System (GIS) was updated to re lect 2010 conditions. This update was based on building permits issued, assessor records, aerial photos, building footprints, and current planning projects in development. The inventory identi ied current uses, vacant land, property that may subdivide or partition, and potential redevelopment sites based on criteria determined by the subcommittee. The same criteria for identifying vacant land, land partitions, and subdivisions was applied to both Salem and Keizer and is described later in this chapter. The forecasts for SKATS by jurisdictions are illustrated in Table A 8. Figures for the years 2000 and 2010 are from the decennial censuses. The forecasts for Keizer and Salem are discussed in greater detail later in this chapter. The historical and projected growth of only the Salem Keizer UGB is illustrated in Figure A 4. The density and development assumptions that were used to calculate persons per household and housing units per acre are listed in Table A 9. The housing density values were taken from the Salem Keizer Regional Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) completed in 2011, which were derived from historical data as part of the HNA project. The persons per household numbers were derived from American Community Survey data. The criteria for partitions, subdivisions, and redevelopment are the same used in determining the buildable land inventory of the Regional HNA with subsequent build out at the densities listed below. SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A A 9

10 Housing and Population Forecast for the City of Keizer The city of Keizer s population grew from 32,203 in 2000 to 36,478 in The Population Research Center estimates the July 2013 population to be 36,795. The city of Keizer completed and adopted their local Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) in The HNA estimated the city has approximately 302 acres of net residential vacant buildable land. Buildable land includes vacant, underutilized lots, potential partitions, and some mixed use land. The majority of future residential development in Keizer will occur on underutilized lots. As part of Keizer s HNA, the city adopted a population forecast of 48,089 for the year The HNA also determined that there is a shortage of residential land in Keizer to accommodate their projected growth. For the RTSP, extending the 2032 population number another three years results in a 2035 target forecast of 49,676 (using a 1.1 percent growth factor). This target forecast was made recognizing that reaching that number will likely be constrained by the restriction of available land. Establishing the year 2010 as a base in the GIS, taxlots were identi ied and categorized as fully developed, vacant, partially vacant (partition), underutilized with a single housing unit on a tax lot larger than 1 acre, or redevelopable with a current single family use on multi family land. Some lots were excluded based on environmental factors such as steep slope, lood plain, or proximity to water. Taxlots that allowed mixed use (housing and employment) were apportioned to both based on input from Keizer s staff. Future housing on mixed use land was developed at a density of multi family. The process in Keizer was to develop a full build out projection of the vacant, partition, underutilized, and mixed used taxlots. The city of Keizer staff then reviewed maps and excluded or reduced the number of forecast units where they were considered highly unlikely or unbuildable. This resulting forecast represents a full build out of Keizer s available land. The initial target forecast of 49,676 was not attainable based on the current land use criteria and existing available land. Keizer s forecast under these existing circumstances is 42,577. The population forecast is illustrated in Table A 10. The mid point forecast for the year 2020 was determined by matching the Marion County 2020 forecast of 42,129 for Keizer. Most development will likely occur in the irst part of the forecast period. The housing forecast by type is illustrated in Table A 11. A total of 2,629 dwelling units are forecast for Keizer between 2010 and This allocation includes 1,406 single family homes, 68 small unit developments (2 to 5 units), and 1,155 large development apartment units. The split between single family and apartments is 45 percent to 55 percent due in a large part to the anticipated development of mixed use property with a higher residential density. The forecasts by the type of development based on the underlying land category are illustrated in Table A 12. Housing and Population Forecast for the City of Salem The city of Salem s population grew from 136,924 in 2000 to 154,637 in The Salem portion of the Urban Growth Boundary includes the Salem city limits plus adjacent urban areas of Marion and Polk Counties. Using Census data, the population in 2000 within the Salem portion of the UGB was 171,072 persons, and the 2010 population was 193,640. The target forecast for the entire UGB is 316,479, and was determined by A 10 SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A

11 extending the 2030 Marion County forecast number ive more years. As the allocation process began, Keizer s forecast number was determined by the full build out of its available land. Subsequently, the forecast for Salem resulted in the balance of the UGB target forecast. This resulting number is 273,902 for Salem s portion of the UGB. With that initial target, city of Salem and SKATS staff worked on allocating the housing and population within the Salem UGB. The same updated GIS land use inventory was used with a base year of Information about recent or upcoming subdivision applications was included in this inventory to create a better estimate of future housing units on large tracts of land. As was done in Keizer, tax lots were then classi ied as developed, vacant, partially vacant (partition), underutilized with single housing units on lots larger than one acre, and redevelopable with single family use on multi family land. Reductions or exclusions were made for likely future schools and environmental constraints. Several special forecast areas were added to account for anticipated development including the Fairview property, the former PictSweet property, and Boise Cascade. The development of special downtown housing units was included re lecting recent goals and development trends of the city to promote housing in the downtown core. In addition, 130 acres of additional multi family housing (required in West Salem as part of Salem s Periodic Review/West Salem Neighborhood Plan) were included in the forecast. Once the taxlots and parameters for future residential growth were identi ied, the potential housing units were calculated using the densities in Table A 11. The city of Salem staff reviewed maps and excluded or reduced the number of forecast units where they were considered highly unlikely or unbuildable. The housing units by development category for the 2035 forecast are illustrated in Table A 13. The inal housing forecast for the Salem portion of the UGB is illustrated in Table A 14. The table is split by single family and multi family housing units for the Salem UGB, east and west of the Willamette River. Using the same persons per housing unit rates used in Keizer, the population increases are ilustrated for For the 2010 to 2035 period, increases of 23,382 single family homes (70 percent of total), 9,766 multifamily units (29 percent of total), and 224 small unit developments (2 to 5 units), for a total of 33,372 housing units and a population increase of 80,262 persons are forecast to occur. Combining the forecast for Salem and Keizer, the Salem Keizer UGB population would increase as illustrated in Table A 15. SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A A 11

12 Housing and Population Forecast for the City of Turner The city of Turner grew from a population of 1,199 in 2000 to 1,854 in The city of Turner completed an update to their comprehensive plan in 2011 which included elements of both a local Economic Opportunity Analysis and Housing Needs Analysis. This work provided a current buildable land inventory, housing density numbers, and a population forecast for the year Using the information from Turner s buildable land inventory, the taxlots were categorized as vacant, partially vacant, or developed. For properties with an existing housing unit, ¼ acre was deducted from being considered developable. Building densities from Turner s Housing Needs Analysis were applied to determine how many units could be built. The result was a total of 819 units resulting in an additional population of 2,011 persons. Turner s population forecast for the year 2032 is 3,677, and extending this forecast three more years using the same growth rate results in a target 2035 population of 3,986. The population growth of 2,011 people on Turner s identi ied buildable land would fall slightly short of the target for Turner s staff reviewed the information and felt the best choice for the RTSP forecast was to use the population number resulting from the build out of identi ied available land in the buildable land inventory, as this is the most recent information the city has available. The resulting 2035 population forecast for Turner is 3,865. For the 2010 to 2035 period, an increase of 524 single family homes and 296 multi family units resulting in a population increase of 2,011 persons are forecast. The majority of multi family units are expected to be condominiums as part of the master plan of the former aggregate site. The results of the forecast are illustrated in Table A 16. A 12 SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A

13 Population Forecast for the Area Outside the UGB In 2000, approximately 10,109 people were living in the area outside of the UGB and inside the SKATS boundary (SKATS boundary of 2004). The 2010 Census estimate for the same area decreased to 9,730. The SKATS boundary expanded in 2013 and the 2010 population using the new boundary is 11,619. For this rural area a slightly higher household density of 2.7 persons per household was used to be consistent with the Marion County forecasts of the same area. The annual growth rate from the county forecasts is 0.69 percent (for the 2010 to 2030 period). A growth rate of 1.0 percent was used for the unincorporated area of Polk County taken from their Transportation Systems Plan forecast work. These rates were applied to the 2010 population to create a 2035 forecast of 12,461. Housing units were allocated only to rural residential land, not farm or agricultural land. The allocation for the SKATS area outside the UGB was reviewed by the Marion and Polk Counties planning staff. The forecast is for 134 new units in Polk County and 178 new units in Marion County for a combined total of 312 new units as illustrated in Table A 17. All of the new housing is assumed to be single family dwelling units. The total population outside the UGBs would increase from 11,619 in the year 2010 to 12,461 by 2035 using this allocation. This population added to the 2035 population forecasts for the Salem Keizer UGB (316,479) and Turner UGB (3,865) results in a total of 332,806 for the current SKATS boundary (Table A 9). Marion and Polk County Employment Several types of employment data are available from the Oregon Employment Department (OED) and Oregon Labor Market Information System (OLMIS) website. Total non farm employment for the Salem Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), for the years 2001 to 2009 by major employment category is illustrated in Table A 18 and Figure A 5. The Salem MSA consists of Polk and Marion Counties. This data is from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program and is not seasonally adjusted. Current Employment Statistics is a survey of employers that provides a good measure of the number of payroll jobs in nonfarm industries. SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A A 13

14 The OLMIS website also contains the ES-202 data of covered employment (workers covered by unemployment insurance) by industry for all counties in the state. The employment data comes from the unemployment insurance tax reports submitted quarterly by employers subject to Employment Department Law. The OLMIS Covered Employment and Wages tool allows searches and summaries of industry employment, wages, and number of business establishments. Historical data is available back to 1976; but beginning in 2001, data is reported using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Prior data is organized by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC). The summary categories are similar, but not identical. Two sets of tables are provided to show 1990 to 2000 employment change and 2001 to 2013, the first in SIC codes and the second in NAICS. Employment for 1990 and 2000 in the Salem MSA (Marion and Polk Counties) is illustrated in Table A-19. Between 1990 and 2000, employment in the MSA increased 28 percent coinciding with the growing overall economy in Oregon. The service sector had the largest increase in jobs (almost 12,000 new jobs), but there were other significant increases in agriculture/forestry/ fishing, construction, transportation/communication/utilities, retail, and government. Employment for 2001 and 2013 in the Salem MSA (Marion and Polk Counties) by NAICS categories is illustrated in Table A 20. Between 2001 and 2013, employment in the MSA increased 6 percent. The highest increase in jobs were in Service industries and State employment. Manufacturing had the largest decrease in jobs during this period. 1Non covered employment includes the self employed; services performed by a person in the employ of a son, daughter, or spouse; realtors and insurance sales employment that are based solely on commission; service performed by certain part time, irregular, and emergency employees of state or local government; service performed by elected of icials; certain categories of agricultural workers; and other specialized employment. See OLMIS for more information. 2 Beginning with January 2003 data, the Oregon Employment Department will be reporting industry data in North American Industry Classi ication System (NAICS) format in order to be comparable to industry data for the U.S. and both Mexico and Canada. A 14 SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A

15 Total employment for both counties since 1976 is illustrated in Figure A 6. Statewide Employment Trends and Forecasts The Oregon Employment Department, Workforce and Economic Research division periodically create long range employment forecasts for the state and regions in the state. Region 3 represents Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties combined and is one of the few available forecasts covering a local area. Projections and growth rates from Employment Projections by Industry and Occupation, were used by the city of Keizer in their Economic Opportunity Analysis. For consistency with employment forecasts, the forecasts created here also used growth rates from the same report. The forecasts from the Employment Department are intended for a look at the long term economy and do not try to predict luctuations in the business cycle. Key summary points of the report included: The Oregon Employment Department s 2010 to 2020 industry employment forecast predicts that total payroll employment will grow by 18 percent over the decade adding 298,000 jobs to Oregon s economy. All of Oregon s major industry sectors are anticipated to grow in the coming years, but more than half of all growth is anticipated to occur in the state s three largest industries: educational and health services (+67,500 jobs); trade, transportation, and utilities (+50,100 jobs); and professional and business services (+49,100 jobs). Oregon s manufacturing sector is expected to add 24,900 jobs over the period while the construction industry adds 18,500. Oregon s manufacturing industry is also not anticipated to reach its pre recession employment level before the year SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A A 15

16 Oregon Employment Department updated forecasts again in 2014 and predict that Region 3 employment will grow at an average yearly rate of 1.4 percent, to the year Statewide employment has been rising from the second quarter of 2010 and is expected to reach the 2007 prerecession level by the middle of SKATS Employment ES 202 Covered employment data for the SKATS area was obtained from the Oregon Employment Department (OED), which tracks the employment of workers who are covered by the state s unemployment insurance program. Employment totals in Salem are seasonal due to increased employment at the local canneries during the late summer and fall and at retailers during the Christmas holidays. The variation in employment during a typical year in the manufacturing sector is illustrated in Figure A 7. This variation is due to the fact that a large percentage of the manufacturing employment in the SKATS area is in the food processing sector. Employment in food processing is highly seasonal, as large canneries (Truitt, Norpac, etc.) almost double their employment during August to October. For that reason, employment for each employer in SKATS was averaged over the twelve months to report the annual average employment. Average covered employment by major sectors inside SKATS is illustrated in Table A 21 and Figure A 8. This data is in a geocoded format that makes it possible to summarize speci ically by the SKATS boundary area. Data using the current (2013) SKATS boundary applied back over previous year s data is compared in this table. The average annual growth rate from 2000 to 2012 for the SKATS area is 0.8 percent. This is a period of time inclusive of the great recession beginning in A 16 SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A

17 SKATS Employment Forecast Accurately predicting the economic future is a challenge over a 20 year horizon. There are few sources for long range employment forecasts and none for small geographic areas. The SKATS subcommittee reviewed the Regional EOA data, Keizer s EOA, and a variety of local information, data, and reports to best determine a forecasting approach. The work done as part of the regional and local EOA is the most recent and applicable for the RTSP forecasts, and the subcommittee wanted to keep the work between them as consistent as possible. The methodology used in Keizer s EOA forecast work was applied to create the RTSP forecast for both Salem and Keizer, with some modi ications. The 2010 covered employment was summarized by industry sectors to serve as the base. The Oregon Employment Department creates 10 year employment projections by industry for the three county area of Marion, Polk, and Yamhill. The 2035 forecast was calculated by using the growth rates by industry from the Employment Department forecast and applying them to the 2010 base. These are the same steps used in Keizer s EOA work with one difference. For the Keizer EOA, the base year employment was adjusted irst to account for possible underreporting of uncovered employment that may include those who are self employed or sole proprietors. The subcommittee discussed whether SKATS area base data should also be adjusted for unreported employment and came to the conclusion not to adjust based on several factors speci ic to these forecasts. First, although a total number of employees could be adjusted higher, the location of those employees would be unknown. Both base data and forecasts are used in the travel demand forecasting model. Existing employment data is geocoded to taxlots in GIS, and forecasts are allocated to identi ied vacant tax lots. In this way, employment is a speci ic locational element in the travel demand model and adjusted or in lated employment could not be accurately located in GIS. Secondly, Oregon Employment Department estimates that 95 percent of employment in Oregon does qualify as covered. A sampling of Census Transportation Planning Products (CTPP) data of total workers in Salem compared to covered employment also indicates 95 percent of employment is covered. The subcommittee evaluated this data and decided the use of unadjusted covered employment for both Keizer and Salem is comprehensive enough. In addition, under reported employment is addressed within the travel demand model itself by calibrating various data sources including traf ic volumes and counts. The results of the forecast steps are illustrated in the following tables. Covered employment within the SKATS area for the year 2010 is illustrated in Table 22 A. The year 2010 is the same base year for the housing forecast, as well as a match with the 2010 decennial census information. The Oregon Employment Department requires some data con identiality when there are smaller numbers of irms or employees in a given category. Some table values are masked to comply with this con identiality agreement. SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A A 17

18 The Oregon Employment Department growth rates applied by the major employment (NAICS) categories for the target employment by jurisdiction is illustrated in Table A-23. A 18 SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A

19 Allocation of Employment The land use inventory in SKATS Geographic Information System (GIS) was updated to re lect 2010 conditions for commercial, industrial, and public use lands. This update was based on commercial building permits issued, assessor records, aerial photos, building footprints, and current planning projects in development. The inventory identi ied tax lots as developed, vacant, partially vacant, or likely to redevelop based on criteria from the subcommittee. Tax lots were also categorized by employment types based on their underlying comprehensive plan designations. The same criteria for identifying land type and the density of employees was applied to both Salem and Keizer. Taxlots that allowed mixed use (housing and employment) were previously identi ied in the housing forecasts for either future housing or future employment. Some taxlots were excluded based on environmental constraints such as slope or water. Employment types for taxlots using one of the mix categories are later broken down into employment sectors. For example, vacant taxlots in the downtown central business district are assumed to develop at a higher density (72.8 jobs per acre) than other commercial areas. This central area business mix of new jobs is split into the appropriate sectors (retails, service, etc.) based on year 2008 employment in the central business area. Each mix has a unique distribution of employment sectors. The assumptions for employment densities, as well as the criteria for identifying partially vacant and redevelopable land are listed in Table A 24. SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A A 19

20 Keizer Employment Employment densities from Table A 24 were applied to vacant, partially vacant, and redevelopable taxlots by their employment type to calculate employment totals in GIS. Similar to the housing forecast, a total possible number of employees were calculated based on the available land. Keizer Station was considered a special forecast with jobs estimated based on Master Plan maps that identify building square footage and use and reviewed by Keizer staff. Speci ically, forecasts for the Keizer Station Areas: Area A 500 additional jobs based on build out of Master Plan. Area B, 340 jobs based on planned of ice developments and transit center. Area C, 670 jobs, Mixed use property, part with commercial development. Area D, 300 jobs, currently industrial vacant land, developed at matching density. Area A North 360 jobs, sports area north of Keizer Station with 23 acres of vacant land. From the potential pool of employment, those forecasts on vacant land were assumed to develop by The Mixed Use areas were also assumed to develop. Of those properties considered partially vacant or redevelopable, only the most likely to develop were included in the forecast period. This assessment was made by visually reviewing these properties in GIS for accessibility and lot usage. The inal forecasts were reviewed on maps by Keizer s staff for any further reductions of modi ications. The employment forecast by year is illustrated in Table A 25. In summary, total employment in Keizer is forecast to grow from 5,403 to 8,209 by Salem Employment Using the same land use inventory, employment densities were applied to vacant, partially vacant, and redevelopable taxlots by their employment type to calculate the potential employment pool for the Salem area. Special forecasts were prepared for Sustainable Fairview and the Mill Creek Corporate Center. Additional forecasts for current large employers were included such as Salem Hospital, Chemeketa Community College, and Willamette University. Information about recent changes (new irms, closures, job increases and decreases) such as FedEx, North Broadway developments, Sanyo Solar, and Home Depot were factored into the employment forecast as well From the potential pool of employment, those forecasts on vacant land were assumed to develop irst by The special forecast areas were also assumed to develop. The forecasts were then aggregated to match the target employment numbers for 2035, keeping a balance across the employment sectors. Final employment forecasts were reviewed on maps by city of Salem staff for any further exclusions or modi ications. Using the employment densities in Table A 24, the resulting employment forecast is illustrated in Table A 26. Employment within the Salem portion of the UGB is forecast to grow from 94,894 in 2010 to 130,594 by A 20 SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A

21 Employment Allocation for Turner and Remainder of SKATS The forecast for the city of Turner, and the SKATS area outside of the Salem Keizer UGB was developed with input from local staff. For Turner, employment forecasts were developed on available land identi ied in their recent buildable land inventory. Commercial and industrial taxlots were identi ied as vacant and partially vacant, and employment densities were applied to determine potential employment. This pool of potential employment was reviewed and a inal set of employment was allocated of 222 jobs in the city of Turner. Modest employment growth was allocated on available commercial or industrial land in unincorporated Polk and Marion Counties matching the general anticipated population growth rate. This resulted in 154 new jobs in Marion County primarily in Brooks and in East Salem and 112 jobs in Polk County along Highway 22W. SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A A 21

22 An increase of 38,993 employees for the entire SKATS area broken out by jurisdiction is illustrated in Table A 28. A inal summary and allocation for employment takes place for input into the travel model in which employment growth in collapsed from 14 sectors to 10 employment sectors and converted to SIC categories. This employment is matched to the initial target numbers for consistency. Summarized 2010 and 2035 employment by area is illustrated in Table A 29. A 22 SKATS RTSP, APPENDIX A