Existing Conditions/Studies

Transcription

1 CAMPO Plan and Model Pesentation Presentation June 17, 2008

2 CAMPO 2035 Plan

3 Timeline September 2008 Network/Modal Environmental Demographic Fiscal/Policy Needs Analysis Existing Conditions/Studies Vision/ Performance Framework February 2009 Round 1: Public Involvement Focused Scenario Alternatives Analysis Trend Scenario August 2009 Round 2: Public Involvement Preferred Alternative and Draft Plan March 2010 June 2010 Round 3: Public Involvement 2035 Plan

4 Activities Complete County-Level Population and Employment Forecasts Approved By CAMPO Board April 2007 Table 1: Approved CAMPO Population Forecasts 2005 Est Travis 896,800 1,105,000 1,318,000 1,555,300 Williamson 330, , ,700 1,026,500 Hays 126, , , ,200 Bastrop 69, , , ,500 Caldwell 35,400 50,100 65,300 82,100 Total 1,458,600 1,919,900 2,506,800 3,250,600

5 Activities Complete County-Level Population and Employment Forecasts Approved By CAMPO Board April 2007 Table 2: Approved CAMPO Employment Forecasts 2005 Est Travis 536, , ,500 1,026,500 Williamson 101, , , ,300 Hays 41,000 66,200 97, ,300 Bastrop 12,000 20,500 34,300 58,200 Caldwell 7,000 10,500 15,000 20,500 Total 698, ,100 1,243,600 1,642,800

6 Activities Underway Update of Travel Demand Model 2005 base year roadway and transit network Modifications to traffic analysis zones Changes to model assumptions Update behavior assumptions based on 2005 Travel Survey Update tolling assumptions based on actual performance Create feedback loop (congestion causes behavior change) Create am/pm peak model Calibrate 2005 base year model by Fall 2008

7 Activities Underway Development of GIS tool for forecasting population/employment distribution scenarios Define Grid Structure Determine Developable Space Calculate Attractiveness Input Goal Densities Input annual Control Total Growth Sum to TAZs Allocate Growth to Grids

8 Activities Underway Regional Arterial Study Map compiles all locally adopted thoroughfare plans not financially constrained candidate projects for 2035 Plan under jurisdiction review Guidebook provides cross section guidance for regional arterials right-of-way width ranges will be incorporated in 2035 Plan under review

9 CAMPO 2035 Growth Concept Translates ECT Vision into a regional framework for land use and transportation Based on extensive analysis, input from jurisdiction staff and the public Identifies key activity centers where region should work collectively to support higher density, mixed use, transportation focused development Will be the basis for the focused scenario analyzed in the development of the 2035 Plan Would need to be endorsed by CAMPO Board/supported by MOUs to be used as adopted land use scenario

10 Timeline September 2008 Network/Modal Environmental Demographic Fiscal/Policy Needs Analysis Existing Conditions/Studies Vision/ Performance Framework February 2009 Round 1: Public Involvement Focused Scenario Alternatives Analysis Trend Scenario August 2009 Round 2: Public Involvement Preferred Alternative and Draft Plan March 2010 June 2010 Round 3: Public Involvement 2035 Plan

11 Opportunity for Collaboration Technical Input Deadlines: March 2009: Identify candidate projects and input on priority projects by year to be tested in CAMPO s alternatives modeling August 2009: Review of alternatives modeling and input on preferred network and land use scenario April 2010: Final Review of CAMPO 2035 Plan Public Involvement Milestones February 2009: Regional Public Workshops opportunity to cosponsor Bastrop Area workshops and meetings August 2009: Review of alternatives via survey March-May 2010: Outreach and meetings on draft 2035 Plan

12 CAMPO Model Data

13 Bastrop County Population Forecasts BASELINE 2000 (Census) 2005 Est. (SDC) 57,733 69,516 FORECAST CAPCOG 158, % SDC , , % 2.4% CAMPO Average* 179, , % 3.8% SDC , , % 4.9% SDC , , % 4.5%

14 Bastrop County Growth 350, , ,000 Population 200, , ,000 50, Years Pop Est CAPCOG SDC 0.5 CAMPO Avg* SDC 1.0 SDC

15 CAMPO Average Scenario Population Forecasts Hays 126, , , ,200 Travis 896, ,105, ,318,000 1,555,300 Williamson 330, , ,700 1,026,500 Bastrop 69, , , ,500 Caldwell 35,400 50,100 65,300 82,100 Total 1,458,600 1,920,000 2,506,800 3,250,600

16 Employment Forecasts Employment Use job/population ratio method Historical ratios for 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2005 Forecast job/population ratio onto future year populations p to determine employment

17 Employment Forecasts Employment 2005 (base year) developed from Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) 3 rd Quarter 2005 database TWC is the state agency reporting quarterly employment figures The TWC figures were reviewed and modified

18 Historical Job-Population Ratios Hays 32% 27% 35% 32% Travis 35% 58% 66% 60% Williamson 13% 21% 31% 31% Bastrop 15% 10% 18% 17% Caldwell 16% 15% 20% 20%

19 Forecast Job-Population Ratios Hays 32% 35% 36% 37% Travis 60% 64% 64% 66% Williamson 31% 35% 36% 39% Bastrop 17% 20% 23% 27% Caldwell 20% 21% 23% 25%

20 Employment Forecasts Hays 41, % 66, % 97, % 137, % Travis 536, % 707, % 843, % 1,026,500, 62.5% Williamson 101, % 165, % 253, % 400, % Bastrop 12, % 20, % 34, % 58, % Caldwell 7, % 10, % 15, % 20, % Total 698, % 970, % 1,243,600, 100.0% 1,642,900, 100.0%

21 Travel Demand Modeling I. Prepare Input of Demographics and/or Transportation Networks II. Trip Generation Calibrate / Validate Base Year Model III. Trip Distribution III. Mode Choice IV. Traffic Assignment Develop/ Evaluate Alternative Transportation Networks

22 Trip Generation Productions Attractions Category Work Other Single family Multi family Total HH Trips per Household Trip Purpose Retail Empl Service Empl Other Empl Househ olds Work Non-work Non-Home Trips per Employee

23 Trip Distribution P PP P PP AA PP A 10 miles A A A A A AA PP

24 Mode Choice Choice is function of: Travel time Cost Convenience

25 Roadway Assignment Shortest travel time path Function of: Speed Capacity Intersection delays Friction (e.g., driveways)

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28 2005 Travel Survey for Model Development Household Survey External Station Survey Workplace Survey Commercial Vehicle Survey ABIA Survey

29 Household Survey Conducted by ETC Institute 1500 household and passive GPS surveys completed in MSA.

30 External Station Survey Conducted by GRAM Traffic Counting 22 stations surveyed 16 stations counted only 6hi high h volume stations ti license survey Survey is complete

31 Workplace Survey Conducted by GRAM Traffic Counting 250 surveys completed Surveys performed at Basic, Service and Retail types of establishments

32 Commercial Vehicle Survey Conducted by Alliance Transportation Group, Inc surveys completed in the CAMPO region Survey is complete

33 ABIA Survey Conducted by GRAM Traffic Counting Survey of passengers, tenants, and freight haulers Completed

34 Use of Travel Survey The travel surveys help us to determine trip rates for various types of households and for various types of businesses. These are developed through the Household, Workplace, Commercial Vehicle, and ABIA surveys. The External Station survey helps on determine trips into the region and trips through the region.

35 Area Type in Modeling Five Area Types CBD CBD Fringe (Urban Intense) Urban Suburban b Rural The area type factors are applied to in traffic serial zones and transportation networks

36 Roadway Network Variables Network attributes Lengths Speeds/time to travel in minutes Number of lanes Functional class (14 classes) Area types (5 types) Capacity (24 hrs and peak period) Toll costs

37 Transit Network Variables Network attributes Service type Mode Transit vehicle travel time and loading time Walk and drive time to transit stops Transit Stops Peak and off-peak headways Distance Fares

38 Upcoming CAMPO Requests Review of Demographics 2010 Trend demographics first 2 weeks of October, 2008 Look at 2015, 2025, and 2035 Trend and Alternative Growth demographics between April - June, , 2025, and 2025 Preferred Scenario; comments taken by August, 2009

39 Upcoming CAMPO Requests Review of Network Attributes 2010 network review period between July 14 th, 2008 and July 25 th, 2008 Development of 2015, 2025, and 2035 networks between July and December 2008 for Trend and by March 2009 for Alternative Scenarios Review of 2015, 2025, and 2035 preferred networks around May-June 2009